OT: Sports betting: winning margin bets

[McLovin]

I had a thought today, and wonder if anyone bettors out there have tested this strategy.

It’s crazy how often Vegas is right on the money with their lines.

So rather than try to beat the line makers, why not use their lines against them?

Here’s how it would work…

You find a game that has a line at -2.5 or -7.5

Rather than pick a side for -110, you can place (at least on DraftKings) a bet on the winning margin buckets “wins by 1-5 points”, “wins by 6-10 points”, etc.

The payout on those winning margin bets are +300 and up.

So if a Vegas has a team winning by 7.5, you can bet the 6-10 bucket giving you 2 points on either side of the line and increase payout from -110 to +300.

The risk is that Vegas is way off with their lines and the margin falls outside the bucket (team blows them out by 15, you’d cover the spread but miss the winning margin bet).

I wonder what % of Vegas lines are within 2 points. At +300 it seems like doesn’t even have to hit a high clip to turn a profit over time.

 

[XLCenterFan]

Prop bet such as those have a vig that makes them not worth betting. Sometimes the vig is more than what they charge for parlays or teasers, and the odds (or price) given for the bet do not reflect the true likelihood of that bet winning.

And don't forget - the spread isn't always meant to predict the outcome. More often, it is meant to balance the amount of money bet on each side. The Alabamas and Yankees of the world usually have a higher spread or line than they should. This is because they are public teams, whom people love to bet, and the money would not be balanced unless Vegas adjusted the line from where it would be if they were simply predicting the outcome.

 

[aburks41]

Prop bet such as those have a vig that makes them not worth betting. Sometimes the vig is more than what they charge for parlays or teasers, and the odds (or price) given for the bet do not reflect the true likelihood of that bet winning.

And don't forget - the spread isn't always meant to predict the outcome. More often, it is meant to balance the amount of money bet on each side. The Alabamas and Yankees of the world usually have a higher spread or line than they should. This is because they are public teams, whom people love to bet, and the money would not be balanced unless Vegas adjusted the line from where it would be if they were simply predicting the outcome.

is there a way to tail which way the sharps are betting and then use that info on the score margin prop? If the line is at -7.5 and late sharp movement bumps it to -8 or -8.5, you know that the 6-10 bucket would have some good value, no?

 

[McLovin]

That’s a good point about the spread being a point to spread the money across both sides / public favorites will often have an inflated spread.

Although I wonder if there is data on how often the lines are within 2 points of the actual outcome.

If the line is within 2 points either way even 35% of the time, then at +300 betting a -8 game for the win by 6-10 prop, you’d make money over time. Right?

 

[XLCenterFan]

NFL betting by the numbers: 'Vegas' not nearly as accurate as many would like to believe - Betting Talk

The NFL season kicks off on Thursday, and inevitably, hundreds of people will perpetuate the "How does Vegas know?" myth when games land on/near the closing line. Here's an annual PSA.

www.bettingtalk.com

This article was written in 2013. I'd like to see more recent stats. However, it does say that between 2002-2103, nearly 60% of NFL games were decided by more than seven points of the spread. Makes it hard to rely on the final outcome to be close to the spread. Wonder if those numbers are similar for hoops. Also, I know there are sports stats services for accessing this info. The good ones you have to pay for, I believe.

 

[XLCenterFan]

I wonder what % of Vegas lines are within 2 points.

I want to know too. I'd like to see that rate.

 

[McLovin]

I want to know too. I'd like to see that rate.

Small sample size… but among the 22 top 25 games Monday - Friday this week, only 3 were within 2 of the line. So, not thats not that good for my theory, haha.

 

[XLCenterFan]

That’s a good point about the spread being a point to spread the money across both sides / public favorites will often have an inflated spread.

Although I wonder if there is data on how often the lines are within 2 points of the actual outcome.

If the line is within 2 points either way even 35% of the time, then at +300 betting a -8 game for the win by 6-10 prop, you’d make money over time. Right?

My math could be incorrect, but if a bet is a guaranteed winner at a 35% clip, then yes, getting +300 would be profitable. Less than +300 would also be, I believe. The break even price for a 35% bet would be 2.85-1 (or +285). Therefore, +286 would be the profitable price for a 35% probability.

If the books are offering +300, then the chances of the game landing near the spread must be lower than 35%. It's the only way they'd offer this bet, and the only way they'd win.

 

[HooperScooper]

 

[Deepster]

The winning theory is don’t bet on sports. Have the money automatically pulled from your bank account into an investment vehicle and let it grow over time.