Reorganizing the NCAA's three divisions

[shizzle787]

https://theathletic.com/5346558/2024/03/...ament-sec/ From the article with Sankey quote: “It’s simply an observation that we leave some highly competitive teams out that can justify their participation. That’s part of the review. That should be part of the conversation. Because again, we keep adding teams — nobody seems to want to deal with the volume of Division I teams increasing (there are now 362 D1 teams) — so we’re going to have to continue to adapt. I think that’s healthy conversation. I don’t make that decision, but I certainly can make observations.” Division 1 is too large and its size is putting pressure on the NCAA championships. I can foresee Sankey, Petitti, and others at the top of the NCAA power structure devising new guidelines and requirements to be a Division 1 institution. These guidelines would moderately slim the division without removing automatic championship access for the smaller leagues. If you use the following guidelines, you would adequately slim Division 1: 1. Must be current or incoming Division 1 member AND 2a. Either be in the FBS or in one of top-10 basketball leagues by 5-year NET OR 2b. Have a minimum $20 million athletic budget (Any schools that qualifies through another means must have a $20 million budget within two years of reorganization) If a school does not meet the second requirement, they can further qualify IF 1. They are top 100 USNWR (based on 5-year average) OR 2. They have the largest athletic budget in a state where no other school meets the previous criteria OR 3. They are an HBCU with at least a 10 million athletic budget OR 4. They are a state flagship that otherwise misses the previous five criteria Here is who misses (moves down to Division 2) based on 21/22 financials: America East (-2) UMBC NJIT ASUN (-10) EKU Jacksonville Queens Austin Peay FGCU North Florida Central Arkansas Bellarmine North Alabama West Georgia (D2 upgrade) Big Sky (-5) Northern Colorado Weber State Portland State EWU Idaho State Big South (-8) Gardner Webb Radford Charleston Southern Longwood Winthrop Presbyterian SC Upstate UNC Asheville Big West (-1) UC Riverside CAA (-2) UNC Wilmington Horizon (-11) Milwaukee Youngstown State Oakland Robert Morris Cleveland State Northern Kentucky Fort Wayne Detroit Wright State IUPUI Green Bay MAAC (-9) Marist Iona Siena Rider Manhattan Mt. St. Mary's Niagara Canisius St. Peter's MEAC (-3) SCSU UMES Coppin State NEC (-6) St. Francis CCSU FDU Stonehill Chicago State Mercyhurst (D2 upgrade) OVC (-10) Lindenwood Tennessee Tech UT Martin Eastern Illinois Little Rock SEMO SIU- Edwardsville Morehead State Southern Indiana Patriot (-1) American Southern (-5) The Citadel ETSU VMI Western Carolina UNC Greensboro Southland (-10) Lamar Houston Christian Texas A&M Commerce SELA McNeese State Texas A&M Corpus Christi Northwestern State Nicholls New Orleans UT RGV Summit (-4) St. Thomas UMKC Oral Roberts Western Illinois SWAC (-3) Arkansas Pine Bluff Alcorn State MVSU WAC (-4) UT Arlington Utah Valley Southern Utah Utah Tech Teams realigning to Division 2: 93 Teams remaining in Division 1: 271 Conferences remaining in Division 1: 21-23

 

[shizzle787]

Swap UC Riverside for Cal State Bakersfield*

 

[KryHavok]

Nice write-up @shizzle787. If only CR can be so transparent for milestones. Stinky (name fits) doesn't want all the tagalongs nor transparency...he wants exclusivity as the $€¢ see for fit for themselves and their conspirators. Talking about "healthy conversation", oh that's so benevolent and inclusive of him. One of the things that made the NCAA overtake the NIT was the field expansion and great stories of #16 upsetting #1 (Fairfield came close to that years ago against UNC if I recall correctly). But nooo, can't have open competition cuz then fat daddy can't line his pockets no mo'.

 

[billybud]

The Autonomous Five had already broken away from the G5 pack.

Now the P5 is consolidating into the P2. I suspect that the end result will be another tier of FBS. Tier 1 being the P2…Tier 2 being everyone else. There could be three championship playoffs….FCS…FBS IA…FBS IAA. The more championships to play for, the more interest. Sugar Ray didn’t fight as a heavyweight. He was a champion welterweight.

 

[freescooter]

The only pressure it is putting on NCAA Championships is that the SEC and Big aren’t getting bids for every team. It is the early round upsets, Oakland over Kentucky, St Peters, Duquesne, Yale that makes the tournament fun and popular.

 

[billybud]

Talking basketball...completely different from football....oranges and cucumbers.

Basketball...you can have SDSU, FAU, Wichita State, etc make the Final Four...putting an elite 11 man offense and 11 man defense on the field takes a lot more resources.

 

[billybud]

And it's cutthroat now...the portal is open season. The big boys are tilting the table.

The SEC now has a rule where no SEC school can take a transfer player from another SEC team. What that means...Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Florida, LSU...they are all coming hard to buy players form other non conference schools. They will be flinging money like guys on floats flinging beads. And, for unexpected transfers that they entice, there is no recourse before August practice tfor a school to replace those losses.

 

[freescooter]

Talking basketball...completely different from football....oranges and cucumbers.

Basketball...you can have SDSU, FAU, Wichita State, etc make the Final Four...putting an elite 11 man offense and 11 man defense on the field takes a lot more resources.

I am not disagreeing but Sanky is talking basketball. There aren’t 362 D1 football schools. He wants fewer schools so Ol Miss and LSU can get to the tournament instead of Oakland and St Peters. He’ll justify it any way he can. Just as long as he gets more bids.

 

[billybud]

Gotcha...I agree

 

[billybud]

The SEC had 10 bids this year...two ended in Elite 8.

ACC had five bids...three in Elite 8 (and Virginia should not have had a bid).

Sankey must not like that.

Rather than more bids, maybe beating teams in the tourney is what the SEC needs.

 

[freescooter]

The SEC had 10 bids this year...two ended in Elite 8.

ACC had five bids...three in Elite 8 (and Virginia should not have had a bid).

Sankey must not like that.

Rather than more bids, maybe beating teams in the tourney is what the SEC needs.

But that’s a lot harder than just taking bids from smaller leagues. And less embarrassing than your big dog losing to Oakland! If Oakland is kept out, you don’t need to worry about losing to them.

Oh, and what does USNWR ranking have to do with athletic performance?

 

[billybud]

Huh ? Sports leagues are athletic leagues. Media does not pay for USNWR. But it is a bragging right thing. And uni administrators like to rub elbows with peers.

 

[shizzle787]

The Autonomous Five had already broken away from the G5 pack.

Now the P5 is consolidating into the P2. I suspect that the end result will be another tier of FBS. Tier 1 being the P2…Tier 2 being everyone else. There could be three championship playoffs….FCS…FBS IA…FBS IAA. The more championships to play for, the more interest. Sugar Ray didn’t fight as a heavyweight. He was a champion welterweight.

I don’t think so. More championships mean higher costs for the NCAA.

 

[shizzle787]

Huh ? Sports leagues are athletic leagues. Media does not pay for USNWR. But it is a bragging right thing. And uni administrators like to rub elbows with peers.

Division 1 is about performance AND prestige.

 

[billybud]

I don’t think so. More championships mean higher costs for the NCAA.

NCAA has no cost in football CFP. Been outside of NCAA for decades. I don’t see BB being so segregated.

 

[billybud]

And FCS playoffs are similar to bowl games…no real NCAA cost.

 

[shizzle787]

NCAA has no cost in football CFP. Been outside of NCAA for decades. I don’t see BB being so segregated.

No but FCS costs money and if you create a third subdivision that will cost even more to organize an additional championship.

 

[billybud]

The NCAA has its eggs in the BB basket. So little cost in football championships. FBS playoffs have no or negligible costs. Splitting into two tiers costs relatively nothing.

For the NCAA, it is basketball that they run and monetize. They have lost football. I think forever.

 

[ScottVib]

I believe that, for the NCAA, the goal now is to fight desperately to keep the major conference schools in the organization. If they have to spend more to organize extra championships they’ll do it. They know that if they lose the Big Ten and SEC schools who regardless of success command eyeballs, let alone if the the Big XII and ACC go with them, that it’s game over for their revenues (yes they’d still have a tournament, but while the non-power conference teams can have success, the revenue is not driven by their success, it’s by the events status as the top event with the most popular schools).

The P2 and to a lessor extent the other P4 conferences will have massive latitude to set the rules about what it takes to be in the top tier. I’m extremely skeptical that, that criterion will end up with 200+ schools eligible for the top tier basketball tournament. The moves now are about consolidating the wealth (they already have the power) among themselves. I’m also confident that academics, at least where it is outsourced to a magazine will not be a consideration.

I don’t know what the end game will be but I’m fairly confident the end result will be a trimmed down premier division, with pressure (internal due to declining revenue) on the schools left behind facing lesser revenues to scale expenditures back.

I also expect D2 to face a reckoning where schools join the leftover D1 or move to D3 (which will help the NCAA mitigate costs) with “academic” aid for their athletes, as with declining enrollments and less revenue from the NCAA (presuming the major conference schools succeed in grabbing a larger share of the money) the half-in/half-out model of D2 makes less sense. Either you have athletic scholarships or you don’t.

 

[freescooter]

If you are talking football, some type of division is probably likely. In fact you could argue it is already here in practice if not officially. Basketball is very different, though and I suspect everybody loses in a stripped down NCAA tourney and certainly a P2 Championship. I am guessing an NCAA tournament expansion will be the compromise solution rather than eliminating schools.

I was reading something recently about “other” NCAA championships too, that people tend to miss. We focus on basketball and (non-NCAA) football, but for a number of major schools, and their conferences other NCAA championships are really important. The NCAA hockey title is treated very seriously in the upper mid-west. Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State as well as of course Minnesota and Wisconsin consider it extremely important and all have won it. The College World Series is a huge deal in the SEC and the ACC and was in the PAC, too. Lacrosse sells out major stadiums. Losing these types of events gets overlooked in the football/basketball discussion, but it is no small thing to Michigan to lose hockey or Auburn not to compete for a national championship in baseball or Maryland to not compete for a lacrosse title.

 

[billybud]

I also think that football will eventually be separated from Olympic sports....maybe conferences for these sports can be regional...

 

[Patman]

I am not disagreeing but Sanky is talking basketball. There aren’t 362 D1 football schools. He wants fewer schools so Ol Miss and LSU can get to the tournament instead of Oakland and St Peters. He’ll justify it any way he can. Just as long as he gets more bids.

Let's put it this way. The lower rungs aren't stealing from the power schools. They're mostly stealing from each other at the margins. There hasn't been a new conference (yet)

 

[CL82]

If you are talking football, some type of division is probably likely. In fact you could argue it is already here in practice if not officially. Basketball is very different, though and I suspect everybody loses in a stripped down NCAA tourney and certainly a P2 Championship. I am guessing an NCAA tournament expansion will be the compromise solution rather than eliminating schools.

I was reading something recently about “other” NCAA championships too, that people tend to miss. We focus on basketball and (non-NCAA) football, but for a number of major schools, and their conferences other NCAA championships are really important. The NCAA hockey title is treated very seriously in the upper mid-west. Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State as well as of course Minnesota and Wisconsin consider it extremely important and all have won it. The College World Series is a huge deal in the SEC and the ACC and was in the PAC, too. Lacrosse sells out major stadiums. Losing these types of events gets overlooked in the football/basketball discussion, but it is no small thing to Michigan to lose hockey or Auburn not to compete for a national championship in baseball or Maryland to not compete for a lacrosse title.

Of course, the breakaway schools could host these events themselves eliminating the NCAA oversight overhead and the cost of D2 and D3 championships.

 

[freescooter]

They could, but there is a big difference between winning a recognized national championship and one with only other P2-4 teams. Imagine an NCAA hockey tournament without BU or Denver or North Dakota. Or lacrosse with no Hopkins.

 

[billybud]

Or football championships without BU, UTSA, UAB, Rice, New Mexico, Nevada, Hawaii, Wyoming, Arkansas State, TexasState,Troy, UTEP, UMass,etc.

Wait...I can imagine that...