PAC-12 Chaos

[jostar1]

 

[jostar1]

 

[jostar1]

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Pay attention to every one of his comments published the past few weeks.

He realizes that the first comment would have been better if he added this, so he comments adding it. Then he realizes that he should have excluded that, so he comments as if that wasn't part of his first comment.

This circle has gone on for nearly a month.

The PAC is ten months away from their current media contract running its course and whatever will replace it not being on the horizon. This is one incredible game of chicken.

 

[jostar1]

 

[jostar1]

 

[jostar1]

 

[jostar1]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[nelsonmuntz]

A lot of sports reporters showing that they should stick to sports and not report about business. Kliavkoff's statement was pretty clear. Anyone that wants is welcome to think he and the rest of the Pac 12 are crazy for how they are handling the media contract, but demanding details of a media deal that is still being negotiated, and then getting upset when he doesn't provide them, is a sign that the sports reporters are the ones out of their depth.

 

[phillionaire]

Are we sure the Pac-12 commissioner isn't George Costanza

 

[Rufus]

SDSU is a perfect fit for the PAC-12. They both botch everything they do.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

A lot of sports reporters showing that they should stick to sports and not report about business. Kliavkoff's statement was pretty clear. Anyone that wants is welcome to think he and the rest of the Pac 12 are crazy for how they are handling the media contract, but demanding details of a media deal that is still being negotiated, and then getting upset when he doesn't provide them, is a sign that the sports reporters are the ones out of their depth.

From what I've gathered over the past nearly two decades is that you have (at a minimum) a reasonably senior corporate position and a pretty good amount of experience (25-30 years I would guess).

In your opinion, putting aside the a risk of losing members, do you think being less than a year away from their current media contract expiring yet still looking on the open market for a new contract is something to be concerned with?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

From what I've gathered over the past nearly two decades is that you have (at a minimum) a reasonably senior corporate position and a pretty good amount of experience (25-30 years I would guess).

In your opinion, putting aside the a risk of losing members, do you think being less than a year away from their current media contract expiring yet still looking on the open market for a new contract is something to be concerned with?

Have you ever seen the movie Margin Call? The boardroom scene with Jeremy Irons is brilliant. I can't find a short clip of it right now, but in the scene, he says there are three ways to make money in their business, be first, be smarter, or cheat. Then he goes on to say that being first is the easiest. Put another way, it is not a panic move if you are right.

In this case, if the Pac 12 was really falling apart, every school would be racing for the doors to be the first to get a new conference home. See the Big East in 2002 or 2012 if you want to see what this looks like. Yet the Pac 12 members are not budging. So either they have a media deal in hand, or they are engaging in one of the most monumentally stupid bluffs in the history of media sales. But if they were bluffing, you would think one of the members would bolt for the door to be first.

I personally think it is a great time to be a content seller, and if ESPN or someone else is playing hardball with the Pac 12, then the right move is to be patient, as long as they think they have something in hand.

All these sports reporters ripping the Pac 12 on twitter are effectively saying that not only do they know more than Kliavkoff, but they also know more than the administrations at every Pac 12 member. If I have to choose between the administrations of Stanford and Cal, or a bunch of sports reporters that are lucky if they graduated from Syracuse, I have a hard time siding with the sports reporters. The fact that the reporters can't do the same analysis I just did and reach a similar conclusion means that they should stick to asking coaches why they won or lost the last game and leave business reporting to people who understand business.

 

[CL82]

Are we sure the Pac-12 commissioner isn't George Costanza

"Media rights deal announcement?
You thought I was serious about that?"

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I've been around long enough to know that things in the real world do not always play out as they do in the academic world.

At the moment, the bellwethers of the P-12 have little, if anything to gain by jumping as their best move is a few moves down the road, they do not want to tie themselves into something that could hinder that move. The also rans also realize that they are better off remaining where they are as they really have nowhere to go. This leaves three, perhaps four members who can make a move but I imagine each has a set of protocols that they will need to follow. Basically, the fact that as of July 21, 2023 none of the remaining ten members has announced that they're done is not evidence that there is not a potential issue with the fact that the contracts are still being negotiated.

The closer we get to opening kickoff of the college football season the more apparent it will become to the media outlets that the PAC is running out of both time and options.

At the moment the most promising situation (for the P-12) is the ESPN/Hulu possibility. If the Comcast/Disney agreement of this doesn't occur until 2024, when so you believe the FCC and SEC will clear this transaction? Who would have the authority to negotiate a deal that covers both ESPN and HULU with the P-12 prior to the transaction being completed? What exactly does the P-12 do if we reach bowl season and they don't have a contract? Someone will blink and I can't see us getting to the end of September without the first person blinking.

 

[CL82]

If the Comcast/Disney agreement of this doesn't occur until 2024, when so you believe the FCC and SEC will clear this transaction? Who would have the authority to negotiate a deal that covers both ESPN and HULU with the P-12 prior to the transaction being completed?

Disney. Doesn't it on both ESPN and a super majority stake in Hulu?

 

[hardcorehusky]

As a UConn fan, I shouldn't be reveling in the Pac-12 misery. We have suffered through this long enough. But this media deal, press conferences and "journalist" responses are comedy gold.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Disney. Doesn't it on both ESPN and a super majority stake in Hulu?

I thought it said they have a 1/3 stake at the moment (as does Comcast).

 

[CL82]

I thought it said they have a 1/3 stake at the moment (as does Comcast).

I thought they had a 66% stake in Comcast had a 33 1/3% steak, but that's from memory

 

[Chuck]

A lot of sports reporters showing that they should stick to sports and not report about business. Kliavkoff's statement was pretty clear. Anyone that wants is welcome to think he and the rest of the Pac 12 are crazy for how they are handling the media contract, but demanding details of a media deal that is still being negotiated, and then getting upset when he doesn't provide them, is a sign that the sports reporters are the ones out of their depth.

I think it also shows a bias. They WANT the PAC to fail. I don't know if that is the narrative pushed on them by their parent (who could be directly or indirectly involved in PAC or Big 12 deals), or if it's just to get clicks. Either way, asking "what are we even doing here" is juvenile. It's a football media day, not a realignment or media deal meeting.

Have you ever seen the movie Margin Call? The boardroom scene with Jeremy Irons is brilliant. I can't find a short clip of it right now, but in the scene, he says there are three ways to make money in their business, be first, be smarter, or cheat. Then he goes on to say that being first is the easiest. Put another way, it is not a panic move if you are right.

In this case, if the Pac 12 was really falling apart, every school would be racing for the doors to be the first to get a new conference home. See the Big East in 2002 or 2012 if you want to see what this looks like. Yet the Pac 12 members are not budging. So either they have a media deal in hand, or they are engaging in one of the most monumentally stupid bluffs in the history of media sales. But if they were bluffing, you would think one of the members would bolt for the door to be first.

I personally think it is a great time to be a content seller, and if ESPN or someone else is playing hardball with the Pac 12, then the right move is to be patient, as long as they think they have something in hand.

All these sports reporters ripping the Pac 12 on twitter are effectively saying that not only do they know more than Kliavkoff, but they also know more than the administrations at every Pac 12 member. If I have to choose between the administrations of Stanford and Cal, or a bunch of sports reporters that are lucky if they graduated from Syracuse, I have a hard time siding with the sports reporters. The fact that the reporters can't do the same analysis I just did and reach a similar conclusion means that they should stick to asking coaches why they won or lost the last game and leave business reporting to people who understand business.

I personally believe nobody knows what is going on with the PAC or B12. And nobody SHOULD know. If real information was leaked, it's a breach of duty and the schools/conferences would look to crush the leaker. Unless they were deliberately leaking info.

I don't believe the PAC's lack of a deal is indicative of getting a bad deal. In general, if a deal gets done quickly / early, it's because the sides are perfectly in tune with each other (rare) or more commonly it's because someone blinked early. Taken at face value, the PAC could be getting consistently increased offers over time. At some point, they'll need to bite, but maybe not yet.

But I don't agree that the lack of movement is indicative of anything either. If the players that could jump believe they can jump whenever they want, it would be smart to wait and see. The only reason to jump early would be if you believe that someone else can steal your spot. Colorado, AZ, ASU might feel totally comfortable with the position they have with the B12.

In summary, I can imagine a million different things going on. Someone is going to have predicted it correctly, but it will probably be through luck, not skill or inside information.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I thought it said they have a 1/3 stake at the moment (as does Comcast).

I thought they had a 66% stake in Comcast had a 33 1/3% steak, but that's from memory

In January, Disney may own 100%. They bought out everybody but Comcast. Currently 66%. This is a pretty good read.

Hulu is facing an existential crisis as Disney approaches a 2024 deadline to buy Comcast's 33% stake

In an era of flagship streaming services like Disney+ and Peacock, Hulu is caught in the middle.

www.cnbc.com

 

[TheCatsLair]

A lot of sports reporters showing that they should stick to sports and not report about business. Kliavkoff's statement was pretty clear. Anyone that wants is welcome to think he and the rest of the Pac 12 are crazy for how they are handling the media contract, but demanding details of a media deal that is still being negotiated, and then getting upset when he doesn't provide them, is a sign that the sports reporters are the ones out of their depth.

Commissioners get asked these questions all of the time, so do college presidents/chancellors and ADs. It is a reporter's job to ask the question. Brett Yormark was asked about the Big 12 deal. I remember the Iowa AD being asked about it. It is the job of the commissioner to answer the question. He could have simply have said that he was in the middle of negotiating a deal and things were sensitive. Instead he constant lies. He lied about this, he lied about deals almost being completed last year. He lied about UCLA making more money in the Pac-12 than the B1G and then wrote to the California regent and tried to blackmail UCLA into staying. He bragged about raiding the Big 12. He lied about having digital proof of Big 12 tampering. He is completely in over his head and reporters should be calling him out.

 

[Rufus]

Can the Big 12 lure one or more PAC-12 schools? That remains to be seen. Maybe. Maybe not.

If the B1G comes calling, not one PAC-12 school is turning that down.

 

[metsfan2323]

Can the Big 12 lure one or more PAC-12 schools? That remains to be seen. Maybe. Maybe not.

If the B1G comes calling, not one PAC-12 school is turning that down.

Unless all 10 schools sign a GOR, then they won't be able move anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if the big hold up is related to trying to convince every team to sign the GOR.