Overachieving/Underachieving Teams

[bballnut90]

Biggest underachievers:

1. Tennessee: Started the year 4-5 with their only wins being over unranked foes. Jackson is not playing for an unknown reason (but that probably isn't a great sign). I could see this team legitimately missing the tournament if they don't clean up their play in the SEC.

2. Texas: Started the year 4-4, will be out of the top 25 this week. Their losses have all been competitive which is why they're above Tennessee. Harmon was out injured to start the year and Vic is a great coach so I think they'll right the ship, but this has been an awful start.

3. Louisville: Started out 5-4, just got rocked by MTSU. Had a player quit the team midseason. Something is off this year.

4. Iowa: Started out 6-3, they're not bad but they're not in the 1 seed conversation either. They seem even more reliant on Clark than they did last year and opposing teams seem to have figured out how to handle Czinano.


Overachievers:

1. Ohio State: Mikulasikova/Sheldon/Mikesell are the best trio in the country right now. Their pressure defense is relentless and forces 29 turnovers per game, plus they're scoring 94 per night. Their games vs. Iowa, Indiana and Maryland should be a blast to watch.

2. Indiana: Even without Berger they absolutely throttled a good North Carolina team. Holmes is a fantastic offensive post player, and Garzon/Scalia/Parrish are fitting in perfectly.

3. UCLA: They're putting together a really nice season thus far. They blew out Tennessee, beat Marquette and put up a great fight vs South Carolina. I think they're top 4 seed material.

4. UCONN: They got blitzed today by Notre Dame but the rest of the season has looked like a legitimate title threat which is impressive considering Bueckers is out.

 

[Bone Dog]

Overachievers:

1. Ohio State: Mikulasikova/Sheldon/Mikesell are the best trio in the country right now. Their pressure defense is relentless and forces 29 turnovers per game, plus they're scoring 94 per night. Their games vs. Iowa, Indiana and Maryland should be a blast to watch.

2. Indiana: Even without Berger they absolutely throttled a good North Carolina team. Holmes is a fantastic offensive post player, and Garzon/Scalia/Parrish are fitting in perfectly.

3. UCLA: They're putting together a really nice season thus far. They blew out Tennessee, beat Marquette and put up a great fight vs South Carolina. I think they're top 4 seed material.

I’m with you on the underachievers. Sounds exactly right.

As for the overachievers, I agree about tOSU. They are playing really well and Mikulasikova has found an excellent groove with this team. They remind me of Indiana last season. And Indiana this year looks much improved.

But I’m not as high on UCLA as you seem to be. The addition of Rice is very promising, but one thing the SC game showed is that she’s not quite ready for prime time yet. This means they’re still just Charisma Osborne and a bunch of mid level assets. Osborne is awesome, but she’s not enough to carry them through the tournament. A 4 seed? Maybe, but I’d could also see them as a 7 or 8 just as easily. I go back and forth on this.

The SC game also shows how vulnerable the Gamecocks are, if a team like UCLA could come that close to an upset. It says more about SC than about UCLA.

 

[bballnut90]

I’m with you on the underachievers. Sounds exactly right.

As for the overachievers, I agree about tOSU. They are playing really well and Mikulasikova has found an excellent groove with this team. They remind me of Indiana last season. And Indiana this year looks much improved.

But I’m not as high on UCLA as you seem to be. The addition of Rice is very promising, but one thing the SC game showed is that she’s not quite ready for prime time yet. This means they’re still just Charisma Osborne and a bunch of mid level assets. Osborne is awesome, but she’s not enough to carry them through the tournament. A 4 seed? Maybe, but I’d could also see them as a 7 or 8 just as easily. I go back and forth on this.

The SC game also shows how vulnerable the Gamecocks are, if a team like UCLA could come that close to an upset. It says more about SC than about UCLA.

I agree it is hard to say anything conclusive yet about UCLA. I do think Rice showed she is definitely ready for prime time vs SC, she was UCLA's best player despite the technical foul that ended their chance of a comeback. Osborne is hit or miss IMO. She's a volume shooter and can shoot UCLA out of games at times, though her efficiency is up significantly from previous years. In the SC game it was painful at times watching a shootout between Zia Cooke and Osborne as they combined for 11-37 shooting. I don't think UCLA is the most talented team, but they play hard and have good chemistry. They throttled Tennessee and also beat Marquette, plus gave SC all they could handle. I agree they could finish anywhere from 3-8 seed since they rely heavily on underclassmen, but based on their wins and losses their resume is better than most in the 10-20 range right now.

 

[Bone Dog]

I agree it is hard to say anything conclusive yet about UCLA. I do think Rice showed she is definitely ready for prime time vs SC, she was UCLA's best player despite the technical foul that ended their chance of a comeback. Osborne is hit or miss IMO. She's a volume shooter and can shoot UCLA out of games at times, though her efficiency is up significantly from previous years. In the SC game it was painful at times watching a shootout between Zia Cooke and Osborne as they combined for 11-37 shooting. I don't think UCLA is the most talented team, but they play hard and have good chemistry. They throttled Tennessee and also beat Marquette, plus gave SC all they could handle. I agree they could finish anywhere from 3-8 seed since they rely heavily on underclassmen, but based on their wins and losses their resume is better than most in the 10-20 range right now.

That’s fair. I was thinking the problem with Rice wasn’t just the technical. Osborne looked gassed to me in the 4th quarter and before she got her second wind Rice had to carry them. And in that role, she repeatedly wasted the shotclock faking and dribbling between her legs outside the arc. The result was a very low percentage shot and she ended up wasting several possessions. That’s how their chances were squandered. This is what an inexperienced player does under too much pressure. Next season, or maybe later in this one, she’ll have developed a bit more mental discipline. But she doesn’t have it right now.

 

[Zanzman]

Not sure how UConn is an over achiever when they started out ranked 6th and after the loss to ND will still be ranked within a3-6 they are where they supposed ti be

 

[nastynatty]

Not sure how UConn is an over achiever when they started out ranked 6th and after the loss to ND will still be ranked within a3-6 they are where they supposed ti be

IMO, eye test + quality wins indicates they’re a Top 3-4 team still. Ranking might not reflect that after the ND loss but considering no Azzi for basically 3 quarters (on top of already missing Dorka) and being on the road in a hostile environment…other teams have worse losses are aren’t nearly as tested as UConn. Many expected they would have dropped more than 1 game by this point in the season. Putting them in the overachieving category is still valid.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

Biggest underachievers:

1. Tennessee: Started the year 4-5 with their only wins being over unranked foes. Jackson is not playing for an unknown reason (but that probably isn't a great sign). I could see this team legitimately missing the tournament if they don't clean up their play in the SEC.

2. Texas: Started the year 4-4, will be out of the top 25 this week. Their losses have all been competitive which is why they're above Tennessee. Harmon was out injured to start the year and Vic is a great coach so I think they'll right the ship, but this has been an awful start.

3. Louisville: Started out 5-4, just got rocked by MTSU. Had a player quit the team midseason. Something is off this year.

4. Iowa: Started out 6-3, they're not bad but they're not in the 1 seed conversation either. They seem even more reliant on Clark than they did last year and opposing teams seem to have figured out how to handle Czinano.


Overachievers:

1. Ohio State: Mikulasikova/Sheldon/Mikesell are the best trio in the country right now. Their pressure defense is relentless and forces 29 turnovers per game, plus they're scoring 94 per night. Their games vs. Iowa, Indiana and Maryland should be a blast to watch.

2. Indiana: Even without Berger they absolutely throttled a good North Carolina team. Holmes is a fantastic offensive post player, and Garzon/Scalia/Parrish are fitting in perfectly.

3. UCLA: They're putting together a really nice season thus far. They blew out Tennessee, beat Marquette and put up a great fight vs South Carolina. I think they're top 4 seed material.

4. UCONN: They got blitzed today by Notre Dame but the rest of the season has looked like a legitimate title threat which is impressive considering Bueckers is out.

Maryland is definitely underachievers. They did beat Notre Dame but have loses to two unranked teams in DePaul and Nebraska at home. Terp fans are not happy right now.

 

[Dillon77]

@bballnut90 - Thanks for putting this together. While I might have a quibble with "overachieving" for some teams (I'm not sure one size fits all), I get why you chose those two terms because underachieving fits a few of the teams you have in there.

- For overachieving and surprising, I nominate Utah, who are 7-0, have six players in double figures, led by the wanderin' Alaskan, Alissa Pill, and the standout sophomore guard Gianna Kneepkins, from the hoops hotbed of Duluth, Minnesota (hockey is what I saw there). Coach Lynne Roberts' squad shellacked Oklahoma and beat Alabama and Ole Miss. Let's see how they do once conference play opens up, but they've opened my eyes.

- In my mind, I'm not sure Ohio State is overachieving per se, because they improved in 2021-22 as the season rolled on.
Your fab threesome has been augmented, first and foremost, by the return of Madison Greene. She's the point guard now and one of the biggest pests on that defense. Rikki Harris comes off the bench to add more mayhem. This is an undersized team but Taylor Thierry and frosh Cotie McMahon have played above their heights.

(As an aside, Mikulasikova was -- at best -- an unwieldy project when she played behind Dorka Juhasz. She has taken that opportunity left by Juhasz's departure and driven right through it. Kudos to she and Coach McGuff for her development.)

- Indiana is surprising in that -- while Teri Moren assembled a bunch of good parts in the off-season -- they've jelled so quickly and without the steadiest of eddies, Grace Berger, at the driver's seat. Yarden Garzon is a freshman find from Israel, Chloe McNeil-Moore has improved remarkably (note to Tennessee -- she grew up right in your state) and MacKenzie Holmes might be the easiest post to root for in the U.S. of A. (She's improved every year, has a great demeanor, smiles and hits the hook/jump hooks. All that, and from Maine, to boot!).

- As for the underachieving, there's still a lot of talent at Louisville, but plug-and-play isn't a guarantee of success. The chemistry with this group hasn't been there yet. It's not just the loss of Emily Engstler (although her import to that team looms even larger now), but Louisville misses the steady play of Kianna Smith. As for Payton Verhulst leaving, I wrote that the transfer of Morgan Jones opened up that question: will Verhulst get a shot at Louisville or is she showing things (or not) at practice that makes Walz look for transfers? Could turn around or just be a very off year. (BTW, I could see Verhulst running and gunning at Iowa State once Ashley Joens moves on to the pros.)

- Tennessee will be commented on early, often and in the future. 'Nuff said.

 

[cancontent]

Maryland is definitely underachievers. They did beat Notre Dame but have loses to two unranked teams in DePaul and Nebraska at home. Terp fans are not happy right now.

Nebraska looked a hot mess at the start of the season, however most had expected them to be competitive based off of last season. It looks like things are sorting themselves out. Maryland losing to them was possible, but I didn't see the point differential coming.

 

[bballnut90]

Not sure how UConn is an over achiever when they started out ranked 6th and after the loss to ND will still be ranked within a3-6 they are where they supposed ti be

To be fair I originally didn't have a 4th team, but then saw I had 4 for underachievers so threw them in because there wasn't any other team that stuck out to me. UCONN got rocked yesterday but has looked quite good the rest of the season with a couple of impressive wins against NC State and Iowa. And they beat Texas for whatever that's worth now. More significant, all of their players look much improved from a year ago (Fudd, Muhl, Edwards, Griffin) and LLS fits in quite well. Ball movement and on court chemistry look the best it has since 2017-18.

 

[UcMiami]

16, 15, 15, 14
That is the list of roster sizes on these underachieving teams.
I think it takes a really good coach, and really committed players to make a large roster work, especially in the universe of 5th year seniors/grads and rampant portal activity. Large teams used to have firmly defined pecking orders - you came in as a freshman to a stacked team, paid your dues and developed, and by sophomore year you started to see your responsibilities increase as the players ahead of you graduated. With the 'covid year' the timeline got extended an extra year and that sophomore year became a continuation of freshman year because there were still three classes of more experienced players ahead of you. And then the portal and transfer rules get blown up and suddenly your coach is importing new players that slot in ahead of you in the pecking order. And with 15 +/- players on the roster the amount of personal coaching is reduced.

Obviously it can work as there are teams thriving with large rosters and 5th year players and transfers in, but ... We have seen how hard it is to integrate large recruiting classes and how often the 5 player classes implode. The exit ramp has become a superhighway with the portal and free transfers, and for coaches it can be awfully tempting to sample the riches therein. But say three recruits and two transfer just as hard to integrate as a 5 player recruiting class.

 

[Plebe]

I would add a few:

Overachievers
Illinois, Virginia, St. John's, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Rice

Underachievers
Texas, Miami, High Point, Belmont, South Dakota State

 

[visitingcock]

 

[triaddukefan]

I would add a few:

Overachievers
Illinois, Virginia, St. John's, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Rice

Underachievers
Texas, Miami, High Point, Belmont, South Dakota State

Sad, but true

 

[ISUnorth]

I don't necessary consider Iowa as underachieving as much as being unfairly overrated. I see them as a Sweet Sixteen level team with a shot at Elite 8 like last year. They needed to have added a difference maker via the portal to be better than last year IMHO. Not sure why they are unsuccessful via the portal, whether it be by Bluder's choice or just not recruiting it well. Seems to me it would have been an attractive venue for some players this year. Not ready to write them off in the Big Ten though, they started slow last year and really peaked late season.

 

[VA Huskie]

I would add a few:

Overachievers
Illinois, Virginia, St. John's, South Florida, St. Joseph's, Rice

Underachievers
Texas, Miami, High Point, Belmont, South Dakota State

I would agree that UVA has overachieved. No way are they as good as 10-0 going forward. But their rapid improvement over the last few years is remarkable.

 

[GoldenGophs]

I would agree that UVA has overachieved. No way are they as good as 10-0 going forward. But their rapid improvement over the last few years is remarkable.

The Gophers in Lindsay's first year went 12-0 and then finished 21-11. Initial starts can be deceiving but Virginia is 100% improved over the last few years. She has gotten their players to buy in and they're playing good basketball.

 

[GoChips20]

I don't necessary consider Iowa as underachieving as much as being unfairly overrated. I see them as a Sweet Sixteen level team with a shot at Elite 8 like last year. They needed to have added a difference maker via the portal to be better than last year IMHO. Not sure why they are unsuccessful via the portal, whether it be by Bluder's choice or just not recruiting it well. Seems to me it would have been an attractive venue for some players this year. Not ready to write them off in the Big Ten though, they started slow last year and really peaked late season.

Some really good points here. I think Iowa’s preseason #4 ranking was largely based on how they closed that season (mid-B1G play through the Creighton game) and less on how they performed across the entire year.

Teams like Iowa that live and die by the ball going through the net are far more apt to look solid across 8 games than they are 32.

Iowa is a very good team that will always be dangerous in a single-elimination format but it’s difficult to string together back-to-back (to-back) wins under their current system.

 

[triaddukefan]

I would agree that UVA has overachieved. No way are they as good as 10-0 going forward. But their rapid improvement over the last few years is remarkable.

After last year's debacle in Charlottesville, it would feel awfully sweet for Duke to be the team that knocks UVA out of the ranks of the undefeated. The next installment of the Duke WBB revenge tour is Dec 21 7pm in Cameron Indoor

 

[GoldenGophs]

After last year's debacle in Charlottesville, it would feel awfully sweet for Duke to be the team that knocks UVA out of the ranks of the undefeated. The next installment of the Duke WBB revenge tour is Dec 21 7pm in Cameron Indoor View attachment 81548 View attachment 81548 View attachment 81548

I'm lowkey rooting for Duke. As a gophers fan I apologize for 2004 but they were the team besides UConn and Tennessee in the 2000's that competed for a championship. I am hoping they can get back there.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

16, 15, 15, 14
That is the list of roster sizes on these underachieving teams.
I think it takes a really good coach, and really committed players to make a large roster work, especially in the universe of 5th year seniors/grads and rampant portal activity. Large teams used to have firmly defined pecking orders - you came in as a freshman to a stacked team, paid your dues and developed, and by sophomore year you started to see your responsibilities increase as the players ahead of you graduated. With the 'covid year' the timeline got extended an extra year and that sophomore year became a continuation of freshman year because there were still three classes of more experienced players ahead of you. And then the portal and transfer rules get blown up and suddenly your coach is importing new players that slot in ahead of you in the pecking order. And with 15 +/- players on the roster the amount of personal coaching is reduced.

Obviously it can work as there are teams thriving with large rosters and 5th year players and transfers in, but ... We have seen how hard it is to integrate large recruiting classes and how often the 5 player classes implode. The exit ramp has become a superhighway with the portal and free transfers, and for coaches it can be awfully tempting to sample the riches therein. But say three recruits and two transfer just as hard to integrate as a 5 player recruiting class.

Even pre-portal, Rutgers had a classic history. While the reasons were different, a 5 player recruiting class in 2008 was part of what killed the program (yes, of course, there is a lot more to it). And the one year when Rutgers had 15 (plus a walk on, I think) - it was not a good situation. Then (and since returned) Assistant Coach Tasha Pointer told the fan club that year to picture managing 15 "teenagers" wanting to use the bathroom to fix their hair. Compared that to managing the team.

 

[triaddukefan]

I'm lowkey rooting for Duke. As a gophers fan I apologize for 2004 but they were the team besides UConn and Tennessee in the 2000's that competed for a championship. I am hoping they can get back there.

That was the 2nd most brutal Duke WBB loss in my lifetime. My blood pressure still rises anytime I see a Maroon and Gold M or Lindsay Whelan. That being said.. a fedex shipment of. 5 Juicy Lucy's, 2 Walleyes, and a bag of Wild Rice would go along way towards easing my pain.

 

[Dillon77]

I would agree that UVA has overachieved. No way are they as good as 10-0 going forward. But their rapid improvement over the last few years is remarkable.

I might make a one for one switch on that phrase in orange: substitute "from" for "over."
As you probably recall, Coach Tina Thompson was let go after four years. One of the few things she did was get some competent transfers, ranging from Camryn Taylor and Taylor Valladay from Marquette to Mir McLean from UConn and McKenna Dale from Brown. However, that certainly didn't translate into a decent season (save for that game from nowhere against Duke ).

Coach Mox added in Sam Brunelle, an unheralded frosh or two, and -- voila -- 10-0, beating teams that they should beat.

Like @triaddukefan , I look forward to that Dec. 21 rematch at Durham to get a reading on what the Hoo's state of play looks like vs. the ACC. I believe ND rolls into Charlottesville not long after to visit with Irish alum Sam Brunelle, so that should be interesting, too.

 

[triaddukefan]

I might make a one for one switch on that phrase in orange: substitute "from" for "over."
As you probably recall, Coach Tina Thompson was let go after four years. One of the few things she did was get some competent transfers, ranging from Camryn Taylor and Taylor Valladay from Marquette to Mir McLean from UConn and McKenna Dale from Brown. However, that certainly didn't translate into a decent season (save for that game from nowhere against Duke ).

Coach Mox added in Sam Brunelle, an unheralded frosh or two, and -- voila -- 10-0, beating teams that they should beat.

Like @triaddukefan , I look forward to that Dec. 21 rematch at Durham to get a reading on what the Hoo's state of play looks like vs. the ACC. I believe ND rolls into Charlottesville not long after to visit with Irish alum Sam Brunelle, so that should be interesting, too.

No offense, but I hope Brunelle drops 50 in that game. Again, no offense to the Irish.

 

[Dillon77]

No offense, but I hope Brunelle drops 50 in that game. Again, no offense to the Irish.

She won't, but if you think she might, let's exchange Venmo numbers and we can wager a pizza at our respective favorite places. Ah, don't bother: no way Sam is even going for 30 against Soni.