Next Year's Team

[BfromCT]

There has been a great deal of comment on the Boneyard about next year’s starting team, a squad that now contains fourteen players, most notably recently in the “UConn stats… Are there enough minutes for everyone to play?” Last year at this time Boneyarders were savoring about the quality and quantity of the players. The injuries began over the summer with that of El Afry and continued throughout the entire season. At the end of the season only eight of fourteen players on the roster were able to play. Can the team escape from the epidemic of last season?

A number of people have noted that we cannot be certain about the starters for the first game in November due to all the injuries the team has suffered from in recent years. I, therefore, think it might be useful to track UConn’s problems in this regard to the best of my knowledge. In addition to name, this chart will include years on team and years with injuries.

Aubrey Griffin 5 years 2 injured
Paige Bueckers 4 2
Caroline Ducharme 3 3
Azzi Fudd 3 3
Kaitlyn Chen 3 0
Ice Brady 2 1
Ayanna Patterson 2 1
Jana El Afry 1 1
KK Arnold 1 0
Qadence Samuels 1 0
Ashlynn Shade 1 0
Morgan Chelli 0 0?
Sarah Strong 0 0
Allie Ziebel 0 0

As can be seen, only three returnees, all freshmen this past season, and Chen have not suffered disabling injuries during their careers. As for the newcomers, we know that Morgan Chelli has had some health problems during her high school career. Both Brady and Bueckers who have each lost a full season were healthy this past year. Optimistically, then, the Huskies have 5 returnees who were healthy last season and 3, perhaps 4, incomers who will be physically ready to play on day one. This assumes, however, that there will be no bad news over the summer. If Jana has fully recovered from her ACL, then we potentially have ten players who will be ready for the tip off next season. Will that be enough? It might be, if there are no new injuries.

With regards to Griffin, Ducharme, Fudd, and Patterson, we cannot be certain that any of them will be on the court for game one and what they will be able to contribute to the team next season. We can hope, but we cannot be confident that the team will have enough depth or rebounding ability to beat a South Carolina, LSU, UCLA, Notre Dame, or Texas.

Given how snake bit the team has been for the past three seasons, it seemed logical to look at the transfer portal and Princeton guard Kaitlyn Chen has enrolled at UConn for her final season. She will certainly play a lot of minutes, assuming that the Huskies primarily use a three guard lineup. An experienced big would be the icing on the cake but that looks like a long shot.

Questions. Can the Huskies avoid being snake bitten again, so that the team will have enough healthy players to play aggressive basketball?

Will Jana be the answer to our lack of size over the past few seasons?

Will a combination of Jana, Strong, and Brady, not counting upon those who were injured last season, provide enough muscle to beat the South Carolinas and LSUs next season?

When will Ducharme, Fudd, Patterson, and Griffin be able to play?

 

[JellyBean]

 

[Centerstream]

There has been a great deal of comment on the Boneyard about next year’s starting team, a squad that now contains fourteen players, most notably recently in the “UConn stats… Are there enough minutes for everyone to play?” Last year at this time Boneyarders were savoring about the quality and quantity of the players. The injuries began over the summer with that of El Afry and continued throughout the entire season. At the end of the season only eight of fourteen players on the roster were able to play. Can the team escape from the epidemic of last season?

A number of people have noted that we cannot be certain about the starters for the first game in November due to all the injuries the team has suffered from in recent years. I, therefore, think it might be useful to track UConn’s problems in this regard to the best of my knowledge. In addition to name, this chart will include years on team and years with injuries.

Aubrey Griffin 5 years 2 injured
Paige Bueckers 4 2
Caroline Ducharme 3 3
Azzi Fudd 3 3
Kaitlyn Chen 3 0
Ice Brady 2 1
Ayanna Patterson 2 1
Jana El Afry 1 1
KK Arnold 1 0
Qadence Samuels 1 0
Ashlynn Shade 1 0
Morgan Chelli 0 0?
Sarah Strong 0 0
Allie Ziebel 0 0

As can be seen, only three returnees, all freshmen this past season, and Chen have not suffered disabling injuries during their careers. As for the newcomers, we know that Morgan Chelli has had some health problems during her high school career. Both Brady and Bueckers who have each lost a full season were healthy this past year. Optimistically, then, the Huskies have 5 returnees who were healthy last season and 3, perhaps 4, incomers who will be physically ready to play on day one. This assumes, however, that there will be no bad news over the summer. If Jana has fully recovered from her ACL, then we potentially have ten players who will be ready for the tip off next season. Will that be enough? It might be, if there are no new injuries.

With regards to Griffin, Ducharme, Fudd, and Patterson, we cannot be certain that any of them will be on the court for game one and what they will be able to contribute to the team next season. We can hope, but we cannot be confident that the team will have enough depth or rebounding ability to beat a South Carolina, LSU, UCLA, Notre Dame, or Texas.

Given how snake bit the team has been for the past three seasons, it seemed logical to look at the transfer portal and Princeton guard Kaitlyn Chen has enrolled at UConn for her final season. She will certainly play a lot of minutes, assuming that the Huskies primarily use a three guard lineup. An experienced big would be the icing on the cake but that looks like a long shot.

Questions. Can the Huskies avoid being snake bitten again, so that the team will have enough healthy players to play aggressive basketball?

Will Jana be the answer to our lack of size over the past few seasons?

Will a combination of Jana, Strong, and Brady, not counting upon those who were injured last season, provide enough muscle to beat the South Carolinas and LSUs next season?

When will Ducharme, Fudd, Patterson, and Griffin be able to play?

Another rehash of previous off season threads? Hmm.

 

[oldhusky]

At positions 1-3 we have a wealth of very good candidates, great depth, and the ability to weather injuries to some (not Paige and maybe Azzi). Despite the number of quality players we have, we are still potentially quite vulnerable upfront.

Sarah and Jana are great prospects and probably will be very good in time, but we need them to be very good and starting material right now, not just when they are juniors or seniors. I think they will be, but we are projecting, neither has proven anything at this point, and if one of those gets injured I think we are likely in trouble.

The current likely positional backups are a problem IMO, and a liability at least by Uconn norms. Both Ayanna and Ice have had one year that was unimpressive and significantly below expectations relative to their draft position. They need to make major leaps to be an acceptable backup at this point, and if either has to start that could be a disaster. Of course they could make a quantum leap, but at this point we have tremendous talent that pretty much has to start ready or not in Sarah and Jana, and backups that have haven't gotten it done so far.

The talent and depth at 1-3 could be the solution to backups at 4 and 5. I have generally been a proponent of a traditional two big lineup, but this roster could make me alter that view when one of our presumed big starters is on the bench. We already have a proven star at the 4, namely Paige, and if healthy Caroline is a candidate, maybe Morgan who is 6-2, and even Q who per minute had more rebounds and blocked shots than ice for example.

The point is we have plenty of good perimeter players even if Paige or another was at the 4, so Ayanna has to get better or sit, because plugging in Paige at the 4 and inserting a very good player to replace her on the wing sets a pretty high floor and decent alternative to using who might be #2 on the traditional depth chart.

Ice is more likely to get entitlement minutes behind Jana, whether she improves much or not, because the wing option is not as good there. If the opposing 5 is a low post banger, small ball doesn't work as well there. I suppose when Jana was resting, Sarah might play the 5 against some people with a small at the 4, but if anything many consider her a 3/4 and not a 5.

Obviously things change significantly for the better when Aubrey returns. Although she may be a 3/4 also, she has proven herself to be a star backup at the 4, so I think we are set there when she returns, but the portal was our opportunity to bring in a proven 5 or 4/5 and that just didn't happen. In many ways the most important players heading into the season are Jana and Ice, because unlike the other positions, we don't have a good plan B if they are not the answer IMO.

 

[Bone Dog]

Here's a sincere question on behalf or Jana and Morgan: is it really that hard to spell their names correctly?

And a plea for the rest of us: let's save the injury pessimism for when injuries actually occur. We gain nothing from fretting about them in advance. It's not like you build up some sort of credit for that. We all waited to see if Paige would recover her pre-injury magic and no amount of anticipatory fretting contributed one iota to the magnificent season she just had. The same goes for Azzi, Jana, Ayanna or Caroline.

 

[Longtime fan]

There has been a great deal of comment on the Boneyard about next year’s starting team, a squad that now contains fourteen players, most notably recently in the “UConn stats… Are there enough minutes for everyone to play?” Last year at this time Boneyarders were savoring about the quality and quantity of the players. The injuries began over the summer with that of El Afry and continued throughout the entire season. At the end of the season only eight of fourteen players on the roster were able to play. Can the team escape from the epidemic of last season?

A number of people have noted that we cannot be certain about the starters for the first game in November due to all the injuries the team has suffered from in recent years. I, therefore, think it might be useful to track UConn’s problems in this regard to the best of my knowledge. In addition to name, this chart will include years on team and years with injuries.

Aubrey Griffin 5 years 2 injured
Paige Bueckers 4 2
Caroline Ducharme 3 3
Azzi Fudd 3 3
Kaitlyn Chen 3 0
Ice Brady 2 1
Ayanna Patterson 2 1
Jana El Afry 1 1
KK Arnold 1 0
Qadence Samuels 1 0
Ashlynn Shade 1 0
Morgan Chelli 0 0?
Sarah Strong 0 0
Allie Ziebel 0 0

As can be seen, only three returnees, all freshmen this past season, and Chen have not suffered disabling injuries during their careers. As for the newcomers, we know that Morgan Chelli has had some health problems during her high school career. Both Brady and Bueckers who have each lost a full season were healthy this past year. Optimistically, then, the Huskies have 5 returnees who were healthy last season and 3, perhaps 4, incomers who will be physically ready to play on day one. This assumes, however, that there will be no bad news over the summer. If Jana has fully recovered from her ACL, then we potentially have ten players who will be ready for the tip off next season. Will that be enough? It might be, if there are no new injuries.

With regards to Griffin, Ducharme, Fudd, and Patterson, we cannot be certain that any of them will be on the court for game one and what they will be able to contribute to the team next season. We can hope, but we cannot be confident that the team will have enough depth or rebounding ability to beat a South Carolina, LSU, UCLA, Notre Dame, or Texas.

Given how snake bit the team has been for the past three seasons, it seemed logical to look at the transfer portal and Princeton guard Kaitlyn Chen has enrolled at UConn for her final season. She will certainly play a lot of minutes, assuming that the Huskies primarily use a three guard lineup. An experienced big would be the icing on the cake but that looks like a long shot.

Questions. Can the Huskies avoid being snake bitten again, so that the team will have enough healthy players to play aggressive basketball?

Will Jana be the answer to our lack of size over the past few seasons?

Will a combination of Jana, Strong, and Brady, not counting upon those who were injured last season, provide enough muscle to beat the South Carolinas and LSUs next season?

When will Ducharme, Fudd, Patterson, and Griffin be able to play?

All the right questions.

 

[yhun89]

Everyone's gonna share minutes I would think. We have capable talent from last year in Ash and KK, and Ice showed good signs (for some reason, she excels when under tremendous pressure lol.)

Morgan in HS had a triple double against LUHI, who had 3 All Americans on the team (Koval, Swords, and Heckel). Allie has insane shooting games when she can go 7-10 from the 3 and have other points in floaters or drives and surprisingly good rebounding ability. Sarah is Sarah, dominant on the glass and offense which we desperately need. Been awhile since we've been good rebounders.

I expect Q to make a major jump given what we saw of her against NC State-clearly there's potential.
My guess is by December or January, we'll have a 8-10 man rotation. I assume in November, he'll be focused on getting Sarah and Jana comfortable since they will be irreplaceable pieces to the team.

 

[huskeynut]

To be honest, outside of Paige, nobody, absolutely nobody knows what will happen. We are just speculating.

And I like it this way. There is going to be competition to play. Players sharpen their skills and have to fight for playing time. Earn your minutes in pracice and be a trusted player.

We have a very good team. A lot of talent. Things will shake out. Not necessarily the way many desire.

Thru all this chatter, there have been two players conspicuously absent - KK and Ashlynn. Two players who were instrumental in the team getting to the final four. Sad. Do not underestimate the talent and drive both KK and Ash bring to the floor.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thru all this chatter, there have been two players conspicuously absent - KK and Ashlynn. Two players who were instrumental in the team getting to the final four. Sad. Do not underestimate the talent and drive both KK and Ash bring to the floor.

KK and Ash are exactly why the rotation will be a bit deeper this year. Geno will play them too, even after Azzi and Caroline and Aubrey and Ayanna return, and even when Morgan and Allie and Sarah manage to play their way onto the floor, and alongside of Kaitlyn. It is really hard to picture them not part of the rotation. Does this mean they'll start in March? Of course not. Who knows what will happen that far out? It's just that the peculiarity of last year's rotation has left Geno with this surprising wealth of proven talent. Those two played themselves into the rotation and they're not going to be forced to sit unless someone else outplays them, and that does not seem likely, at least until the second half of the season.

 

[Alydar]

For decades now Geno has been telling anyone who asks that game minutes are earned in practice. Never once has he said that playing well the previous year earns minutes in the coming year or that how one played in HS dictates their time on the court in college. And yet every year, without fail, fans ignore what Geno says and list those two things as the basis of their predictions as to who starts and who sits.
Two years ago LLS was largely ignored by the media and her 4 years at Fairfield were generally considered poor preparation for elite D1 basketball. The CT. press hoard didn't write one sentence about her for her 4 undergrad years. She had an AA level season, even though the national press ignored her until the NCAA's.
I am personally confident about next season. Even more than I was in May of 2002 and May of 2023. There is no ceiling to what this team can accomplish. But as we experienced in the last 2 years, events can change that so I'll wait on making predictions at least until I hear from Geno near the end of the summer.

 

[AzzisBraids]

The 3 point capability of this team is what really strikes me. Paige, Azzi, Ashlynn, Caroline, Ice, Qadence, Morgan, Allie, Sarah and Kaitlyn are all great shooters. UConn will be able to space the floor better than they have in quite some time.

 

[Skeets]

KK and Ash are exactly why the rotation will be a bit deeper this year. Geno will play them too, even after Azzi and Caroline and Aubrey and Ayanna return, and even when Morgan and Allie and Sarah manage to play their way onto the floor, and alongside of Kaitlyn. It is really hard to picture them not part of the rotation. Does this mean they'll start in March? Of course not. Who knows what will happen that far out? It's just that the peculiarity of last year's rotation has left Geno with this surprising wealth of proven talent. Those two played themselves into the rotation and they're not going to be forced to sit unless someone else outplays them, and that does not seem likely, at least until the second half of the season.

I want to see the player who can force Ash out of the starting rotation. Can it happen? Yes, but I want to see that player. I hope Ash makes the soph jump. What a hard-nosed, hardworking kid. A throw back player in the mold of Shea (and others).

 

[yhun89]

The 3 point capability of this team is what really strikes me. Paige, Azzi, Ashlynn, Caroline, Ice, Qadence, Morgan, Allie, Sarah and Kaitlyn are all great shooters. UConn will be able to space the floor better than they have in quite some time.

This is what I’ve been saying. The amount of sharpshooters we have is unreal. Azzi and Allie are two players you cannot leave open for anything, not even if they’re in a slump (cue Azzi’s 24 second half points against Iowa after scoring 2-3 in the first). PB is another no one wants to leave open, Q and Ash have good 3 pointers, Caroline when healthy has a good one, Sarah is a sharp shot who’s gone 70% from 3 in multiple games her SR year, and KK’s 3 wasn’t bad either. I’m gonna disagree on Chen though, she wasn’t really a 3 point shooter in the Ivy League and when she did, she only shot a low 30% from the 3.

 

[Bone Dog]

For decades now Geno has been telling anyone who asks that game minutes are earned in practice. Never once has he said that playing well the previous year earns minutes in the coming year or that how one played in HS dictates their time on the court in college. And yet every year, without fail, fans ignore what Geno says and list those two things as the basis of their predictions as to who starts and who sits.
Two years ago LLS was largely ignored by the media and her 4 years at Fairfield were generally considered poor preparation for elite D1 basketball. The CT. press hoard didn't write one sentence about her for her 4 undergrad years. She had an AA level season, even though the national press ignored her until the NCAA's.
I am personally confident about next season. Even more than I was in May of 2002 and May of 2023. There is no ceiling to what this team can accomplish. But as we experienced in the last 2 years, events can change that so I'll wait on making predictions at least until I hear from Geno near the end of the summer.

While I agree and totally share your confidence about this coming season, I think your initial inference is faulty, or at least ungenerous. I don't see more than a few fans make the case you describe. But many folks often use a shorthand to the effect that previous performance might indicate who will succeed in earning minutes in practice. This is the basis of the predictions they make. At least, that's how I choose to read them.

Also, your invocation of Lou Lopez Senechal as an example seems to cut the other way than you intended. The fact that she was ignored by many might just as well show that folks weren't assuming she would get minutes until she earned them. Even when injury seemed to make her a lock, Geno still sat her for long stretches early on, and foul trouble had a similar effect. But by the time of the Tennessee game, it was clear that she was an essential player for the rest of the season. Now did she earn those minutes, or was there some other mechanism?

In any event, the clearest example is when folks assume Paige is a lock for major starting minutes. The hidden inference they make is that Paige will dominate in practice and no one else on the team will outplay her. I think such an inference is likely to be correct. Similarly, if she's healthy I doubt very much anyone is going to outplay Azzi either. Or Caroline. Or Aubrey. The only question is when they'll become available. Similarly, as KK and Ash have a full season (mostly as starters) of experience in Geno's offensive and defensive schemes, I don't see any of the new kids outplaying them, at least not in the early season. Some have speculated that since Carla's system is similar to Geno's, Kaitlyn effectively has 3 years of experience in it and therefore might compete very well with KK and Ash for minutes. This wouldn't surprise me.

I think the case is a little different with the front court players, Jana Ice Sarah Ayanna Morgan and Q, and maybe Aubrey and Caroline. Many don't express confidence that anyone other than Jana Ice Sarah Q and Morgan will be ready until midseason. This has led some (including me) to predict that the major minutes will go to Ice Jana and Sarah, at least in November and December. I suspect Jana will get minutes almost by default because she's the primary C available to Geno and will therefore need all the experience she can get both in practice and in games. In other words, the usual formula of earning minutes in practice may not apply quite so rigorously to Jana. As the season progresses, this could well change. In other words, I'll be very surprised if she doesn't get ~20 mins in November and December, and I'm not basing that on any hidden inference besides that she's an essential piece of the puzzle. If she flounders, I'm sure Geno will bench her for some combination of Ice Sarah and Ayanna and Aubrey. But he has expressed surprising (even extravagant) confidence in her, which suggests the position is hers to lose.

This is why many have quite reasonably speculated that the rotation in November-December will be Paige KK Ash Ice Jana, with as many of the healthy players as possible getting some showcase minutes -- Kaitlyn Sarah Morgan Allie and Q seem most likely, but Azzi and Caroline could be ready by then, too. That's 10, maybe 12 in the November-December rotation. By January, some sorting out will probably have happened and the rotation will have shrunk to 10 from a possible 12. And by February, with the possible return of Ayanna and Aubrey, it will have to be sorted once again.

Come tournament time, I expect the rotation to be down to 9, but who they will be is anyone's guess. I might guess Paige Azzi KK Sarah Jana with Aubrey Kaitlyn Ash and Caroline coming in off the bench. This bunch will get the major minutes, but that means some serious talent is still on the bench: Q Morgan Allie Ayanna Ice. That's practically a top-20 D1 team right there at the bottom of the bench. No wonder we're enthusiastic about the coming season!

 

[Alydar]

Four 1st year players, four rising sophomores and a grad transfer. Add in 4 players who missed virtually the entire 2024 season and that leaves Bueckers.
Picking the starters and assigning minutes in May is like picking the 1st four finishers in the 2025 Kentucky Derby right now.
I'm wildly optimistic about next season but I have no idea who will start except a healthy Bueckers. What is exciting to me is that there are 14 potential starters, granting that some have more potential than others.

 

[Bone Dog]

Four 1st year players, four rising sophomores and a grad transfer. Add in 4 players who missed virtually the entire 2024 season and that leaves Bueckers.
Picking the starters and assigning minutes in May is like picking the 1st four finishers in the 2025 Kentucky Derby right now.
I'm wildly optimistic about next season but I have no idea who will start except a healthy Bueckers. What is exciting to me is that there are 14 potential starters, granting that some have more potential than others.

You sound like you have other hobbies to occupy your time... unlike the rest of us!

 

[Skeets]

Four 1st year players, four rising sophomores and a grad transfer. Add in 4 players who missed virtually the entire 2024 season and that leaves Bueckers.
Picking the starters and assigning minutes in May is like picking the 1st four finishers in the 2025 Kentucky Derby right now.
I'm wildly optimistic about next season but I have no idea who will start except a healthy Bueckers. What is exciting to me is that there are 14 potential starters, granting that some have more potential than others.

For a horse you are vary insightful. Paige any other 4 are a real possibility. I would say Ash and any 3 others, but this will be very interesting. How long do we have to wait? Come on, the season should start at the end of May.

 

[oldhusky]

The 3 point capability of this team is what really strikes me. Paige, Azzi, Ashlynn, Caroline, Ice, Qadence, Morgan, Allie, Sarah and Kaitlyn are all great shooters. UConn will be able to space the floor better than they have in quite some time.

They certainly have the pieces to put a great 3pt shooting lineup out there. Like Fanofball I think Kaitlin should not be considered a great 3pt shooter, but she is very good from mid-range. On the other hand I might add Jana for consideration, not expecting her to be great from there, but i think she will be OK.

In some ways Sarah and Jana might bring a dimension to the team similar to back on the last championship team, when we had a 4 and 5 that shot threes, in Tuck and Stewart. That is very very rare. In that case Stewart was good and could look for her shot and Tuck was good enough to take it if she was left open. With this year's bigs I expect Strong to be pretty good from there, and El Alfy good enough to take them if open.

 

[Alydar]

We get a tease in June with Strong playing in the U18's and hopefully we see Fisher in the U17's in July.

The players need 6 months to merge into the machine we want to see.

 

[Alydar]

At positions 1-3 we have a wealth of very good candidates, great depth, and the ability to weather injuries to some (not Paige and maybe Azzi). Despite the number of quality players we have, we are still potentially quite vulnerable upfront.

Sarah and Jana are great prospects and probably will be very good in time, but we need them to be very good and starting material right now, not just when they are juniors or seniors. I think they will be, but we are projecting, neither has proven anything at this point, and if one of those gets injured I think we are likely in trouble.

The current likely positional backups are a problem IMO, and a liability at least by Uconn norms. Both Ayanna and Ice have had one year that was unimpressive and significantly below expectations relative to their draft position. They need to make major leaps to be an acceptable backup at this point, and if either has to start that could be a disaster. Of course they could make a quantum leap, but at this point we have tremendous talent that pretty much has to start ready or not in Sarah and Jana, and backups that have haven't gotten it done so far.

The talent and depth at 1-3 could be the solution to backups at 4 and 5. I have generally been a proponent of a traditional two big lineup, but this roster could make me alter that view when one of our presumed big starters is on the bench. We already have a proven star at the 4, namely Paige, and if healthy Caroline is a candidate, maybe Morgan who is 6-2, and even Q who per minute had more rebounds and blocked shots than ice for example.

The point is we have plenty of good perimeter players even if Paige or another was at the 4, so Ayanna has to get better or sit, because plugging in Paige at the 4 and inserting a very good player to replace her on the wing sets a pretty high floor and decent alternative to using who might be #2 on the traditional depth chart.

Ice is more likely to get entitlement minutes behind Jana, whether she improves much or not, because the wing option is not as good there. If the opposing 5 is a low post banger, small ball doesn't work as well there. I suppose when Jana was resting, Sarah might play the 5 against some people with a small at the 4, but if anything many consider her a 3/4 and not a 5.

Obviously things change significantly for the better when Aubrey returns. Although she may be a 3/4 also, she has proven herself to be a star backup at the 4, so I think we are set there when she returns, but the portal was our opportunity to bring in a proven 5 or 4/5 and that just didn't happen. In many ways the most important players heading into the season are Jana and Ice, because unlike the other positions, we don't have a good plan B if they are not the answer IMO.

I think you meant their HS rankings. I think it's unfair to criticize them for not dominating as 1st year players. Patterson played with a damaged knee as a freshman and Brady was coming off a year off from knee surgery and got tossed to the lions earlier than maybe she was ready. By the end of the season she was looking like a regular rotation player and I expect a significant sophomore leap. Patterson earned a pass by playing on a bad knee when the team needed it. Your quick dismissal of Patterson and Brady reminds me of Mets fans, 2 weeks into the season and trading half the team.


edit: I do think it's possible for Strong and El Alfy to start at some point, if Geno is to be believed.