Last Chance for Swofford to be smart

[nelsonmuntz]

The ONLY way for the Big East and ACC schools to remain relevant is to form a similar partnership and take EVERYONE worth anything that is left. Also, it may make sense for whatever is left of the ACC after the coming raid to merge into the Big East, no matter how big the league is, just to get out of that contract. That ACC contract is a death sentence for every school in it. Even the threat of dissolving the ACC will get ESPN to at least come to the table with a serious offer.

Assume FSU, Clemson, VTech and Pitt are gone to Big 12.

In a perfect world:

ACC: UNC, Duke, Wake, Georgia Tech, NC State, Syracuse, Maryland, BCU, Virginia, Miami

Add: UConn, Rutgers, USF, Louisville

The New WAC (I would buy rights to the name if necessary):

Boise, Cincinnati, SDSU, SMU, Houston, Memphis, USM, Fresno, UNLV, Nevada, New Mexico, CSU

I only come up with 12 teams worth saving out west. Take BYU if they give up their independence lunacy, even as #13. UCF and Temple get screwed, but that's life. They aren't worth saving. They can be swapped in if UVa and UNC bolt.

Keep the Hoops schools with the nACC. Yes, that would make it a 22 team basketball conference, but it would be a powerhouse. the Big East will be 18 or 19 as currently constituted.

Add St. Mary's and Gonzaga to the nWAC, and BYU for basketball if they insist on independence for football. This is important because that league would be a better basketball league than the Pac 12 or SEC.

The nWAC and nACC could have some kind of preseason "challenge" in hoops. They would both be hoops powerhouses.

That is what they should do. What I think will happen? The ACC will get raided for 4 teams, add UConn and Rutgers, cling to the crappy contract by its fingernails and declare victory, while the ACC, Catholic Schools, and western schools fight each other for crumbs.

 

[businesslawyer]

I'm confused with what you're proposing. If the ACC takes the teams you want, how does it get rid of its contract? And if ACC teams are merging into the Big East, how do you think you're getting rid of the teams that we've recently added?

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

The ACC has to make the godfather offer to ND and then add RU, UConn and Louisville. You then have a league that will require $20M a year in TV dollars becasue you'd domiante the basketball inventory and should have three relevent football schools in FSU, VaTech, and ND. Plus, you'd control the entire eastern seaboard.

If the aCC did this, can they break their contract with eSPN? Can NBC get involved?

 

[WestCoastHusky]

The ACC has to make the godfather offer to ND and then add RU, UConn and Louisville. You then have a league that will require $20M a year in TV dollars becasue you'd domiante the basketball inventory and should have three relevent football schools in FSU, VaTech, and ND. Plus, you'd control the entire eastern seaboard.

If the aCC did this, can they break their contract with eSPN? Can NBC get involved?

I highly doubt ACC can get out of the current ESPN contract. The only way is all the teams in the ACC leave the ACC to dissolve the conference. The only real possibility is teams from the ACC and the BE leave to form a new conference and go to the open market for a new TV deal.

With the new B12/SEC partnership, it almost looks like those schools got no choice. By combining the best from both ACC and the BE, they can also get rid of some dead weights. I think that's probably the best solution going forward. Could they put it off? I doubt it. Once BE is locked down to a TV deal, it will make this much harder.

 

[whaler11]

Some combination of the teams you have listed has been the destination since the beginning.

I'd gladly sign up for UConn with Carolina, Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Maryland, Louisville and South Florida in the end.

If I've got that league I don't need the basketball schools. The basketball league is fine without them, why have two masters?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Some combination of the teams you have listed has been the destination since the beginning.

I'd gladly sign up for UConn with Carolina, Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Maryland, Louisville and South Florida in the end.

If I've got that league I don't need the basketball schools. The basketball league is fine without them, why have two masters?

Because without size, the nACC is locking into a permanent inferiority with the other leagues. That contract is 15 years, and the SEC/Big 12 and B1G/Pac 12 cartels are boxing everyone else out. Divide and conquer, just as the BCS did with everyone else for the last 15 years. The only play I see is to develop some foundation of power that will force the two cartels two let the nACC/whatever you want to call it have a seat at the table. Solidarity with everyone else that matters is one way, strength in basketball is another.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I'm confused with what you're proposing. If the ACC takes the teams you want, how does it get rid of its contract? And if ACC teams are merging into the Big East, how do you think you're getting rid of the teams that we've recently added?

reverse merger. Merge the ACC into the Big East. That will bust the contract. The dollars itself are not that bad, but ESPN is the bigger problem. With control of 100% of the ACC's content, ESPN can relegate the nACC to increasingly worse times until the league is invisible. If ESPN would finance the destruction of one league, why wouldn't they finance the destruction of another?

The detritus (UCF, Memphis, Temple) is a little trickier. Maybe they get dragged along because they are already in the tent.

 

[whaler11]

Because without size, the nACC is locking into a permanent inferiority with the other leagues. That contract is 15 years, and the SEC/Big 12 and B1G/Pac 12 cartels are boxing everyone else out. Divide and conquer, just as the BCS did with everyone else for the last 15 years. The only play I see is to develop some foundation of power that will force the two cartels two let the nACC/whatever you want to call it have a seat at the table. Solidarity with everyone else that matters is one way, strength in basketball is another.

Yeah I guess I don't get how the basketball is better with those teams.

It's a good enough league without the complications.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Some combination of the teams you have listed has been the destination since the beginning.

I'd gladly sign up for UConn with Carolina, Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Maryland, Louisville and South Florida in the end.

If I've got that league I don't need the basketball schools. The basketball league is fine without them, why have two masters?

There is no way we will ever be in a conference with UNC, UVA, or even GA Tech. When/If the ACC crumbles they are not going to be left behind. We better get to used to the crowd we are with. It's not going to change much.

 

[whaler11]

There is no way we will ever be in a conference with UNC, UVA, or even GA Tech. When/If the ACC crumbles they are not going to be left behind. We better get to used to the crowd we are with. It's not going to change much.

I think there is a very real chance that VPI, Clemson, FSU and another move on and UConn/Rutgers head aouth and things stick for a few years.

I wouldn't wager on it without good odds but the Big 10 moves slowly and they have the keys.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

I think there is a very real chance that VPI, Clemson, FSU and another move on and UConn/Rutgers head aouth and things stick for a few years.

I wouldn't wager on it without good odds but the Big 10 moves slowly and they have the keys.

I agree that the B!G definitely has the keys and they won't be rushed. They probably won't make any move until ND makes up their mind. Believe me, I'd be pretty content to play in that ACC for a few years. Maybe the whole notion of 16 team conferences would lose steam and we could make ourselves at home.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Every conference will be signing GOR's through the next contract. NBC will certainly require it. I would imagine that the ACC won't take anyone not willing to sign one. This next move will be the last for 15 years. It better be a good one.

 

[junglehusky]

No pressure, right?

 

[TuxedoYoda]

What if you have 6 teams going to the Big12, 2 to the SEC and 2 to the Big 10? Would there be anything left to salvage.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Nelson Muntz:

 

[Waquoit]

There is no way we will ever be in a conference with UNC, UVA, or even GA Tech. When/If the ACC crumbles they are not going to be left behind. We better get to used to the crowd we are with. It's not going to change much.

I'm afraid you're right. If we were destined to go somewhere else, we'd be there already. SMU, Memphis, UCF, Houston... I just try not to think about it. Makes me too sad.

 

[CL82]

I think one good football season makes a world of difference in our popular perception.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I agree that the B!G definitely has the keys and they won't be rushed. They probably won't make any move until ND makes up their mind. Believe me, I'd be pretty content to play in that ACC for a few years. Maybe the whole notion of 16 team conferences would lose steam and we could make ourselves at home.

The Big 10 would probably add UNC and UVa if they were available. Maybe Maryland too, although that's a little less clear cut. Rumor is that an ACC school has already approached the B1G, and the B1G is listening. VTech is rumored to be trying to box out Clemson, and GTech and Maryland are scrambling for a lifeboat. Miami may or may not have the votes to get in the Big 12, depending on which "source" you believe.

The B1G and SEC may want to wait, but they probably don't have that luxury.

 

[junglehusky]

Do we know if the B1G / Big Ten network would make more money, break even or lose money (per school) based on projections with different ACC / BE schools? would be nice to see some analysis on this point from FTI or someone else close to the situation. I'd think the projections have been done but are secret until they don't need to be secret. Does the BTN care what the ratings would be in Virginia vs. whatever other state, or do they just care that cable operators would add BTN to their lineups?

 

[whaler11]

I doubt the ratings matter. They get more per subscriber for those in the geographic footprint versus those that aren't. The higher ratings are a bonus.

 

[RS9999X]

More ACC hate:

Fed Ex pulled out of the Orange Bowl after 23 years as the sponsor. In the 15 seasons between 1983 and 1997, eight national champions were crowned on the Orange Bowl field, more than any other bowl during that span. In the 13 seasons since the formation of the BCS, the Orange Bowl has finished with either the worst or second-worst TV ratings in the 11 years it didn't host the BCS title game. That trend has only worsened, with the Orange Bowl bringing up the rear four of the six years in the double-host era, including the all-time BCS worst 5.4 rating for the 2009 game between Virginia Tech and Cincinnati. --- and that was topped this year with a 4.5 rating.

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/201...owest-rated-since-1993-worst-bcs-rating-ever/

Ratings/Viewership For the Orange BowlPast ten years
Asterisk (*) indicates National Championship Game
Season
Date
Game
Net
Rating
Viewers (000)
2011-12 Wed., 1/4/12 WVU 70, CLEM 33 ESPN
4.5
7,174
2010-11 Mon., 1/3/11 STAN 40, VT 12 ESPN
6.7
10,682
2009-10 Tue., 1/5/10 IOWA 24, GT 14 FOX
6.8
10,879
2008-09 Thu., 1/1/09 VT 20, CIN 7 FOX
5.4
9,319
2007-08 Thu., 1/3/08 KU 24, VT 21 FOX
7.4
11,958
2006-07 Tue., 1/2/07 LOU 24, WF 13 FOX
7.0
10,660
2005-06 Tue., 1/3/06 PSU 26, FSU 23 ABC
12.3
18,557
2004-05 Tue., 1/4/05 USC 55, OK 19* ABC
13.7
21,419
2003-04 Thu., 1/1/04 MIA 16, FSU 14 ABC
9.1
14,183
2002-03 Thu., 1/2/03 USC 38, IOWA 17 ABC
9.7
15,235
2001-02 Wed., 1/2/02 UF 56, MD 23 ABC
9.5
14,027

 

[UCFBfan]

Fed Ex pulled out of the Orange Bowl after 23 years as the sponsor.

Isn't FedEx the same company that everyone believes is going to dump all this money into the NBE because Memphis joined?? Lol! Considering that the NBE will probably end up with a match-up deal with the ACC in the Orange Bowl to try and match whatever the SEC/Big12 and Pac12/B1G Bowl deals did, I find this funny. Anyone who thought Memphis would bring FedEx along for the ride was delusional and here's more evidence towards that. They aren't stupid. You don't keep dumping money into a money pit and that's exactly what the NBE will be.

 

[junglehusky]

Isn't FedEx the same company that everyone believes is going to dump all this money into the NBE because Memphis joined?? Lol! Considering that the NBE will probably end up with a match-up deal with the ACC in the Orange Bowl to try and match whatever the SEC/Big12 and Pac12/B1G Bowl deals did, I find this funny. Anyone who thought Memphis would bring FedEx along for the ride was delusional and here's more evidence towards that. They aren't stupid. You don't keep dumping money into a money pit and that's exactly what the NBE will be.

Carl Spackler soapbox soliloquy in 3... 2... 1...