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Ken Pom stat

QDOG5

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UConn has mostly quality KenPom stats but our Strength of Schedule is bad. We are playing the toughest part of our schedule to end the season. Does anyone know how much the SOS will improve?
 
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UConn has mostly quality KenPom stats but our Strength of Schedule is bad. We are playing the toughest part of our schedule to end the season. Does anyone know how much the SOS will improve?

Not a ton, because all the other top teams are playing in their conference right now too with (generally) better teams.

Our Non-con SOS is one of the worst in the country. We really need to sort that out.
 

OkaForPrez

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We look good at the top (Q1/Q2). The aggregate SOS/NCSOS look bad because we played more Q4 games than average and less Q3 which isn't particularly meaningful to me. If you're the selection committee UConn is soundly a 1 seed. We need to split with Marquette protecting our home court, lose no more than 1 additional game, and we are soundly on the 1 seed line no matter what happens in the BET.
 
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Mississippi Valley State is last in the Kenpom ranking. Dead last.

I don't see why it would really matter. Everyone plays bad teams, just don't lose to them.
 

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Strength of schedule was 58 on Tuesday and is now 75 after the DePaul game, so one game can move the needle.

I think it’ll be top 50 if not top 40 after the next 5 games.
 
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Strength of Schedule isn't very important these days, because it's pretty obviously a flawed stat, especially at the extremes.

Miss Valley St is historically bad, one of the worst teams of this decade. They're killing our SoS numbers. But in addition, thanks to DePaul, No. Arizona being worse than expected, and our general weak cupcake scheduling, we've played 7 teams ranked in the 300s. That's very bad.

Strength of Schedule is too simple for cbb. D1 has a long tail. There are like 60 teams that matter, but there are 240 teams between 60 and 300+. So what happens is that even if you schedule the same number of great teams and terrible teams, your SoS gets dragged down.

Thankfully, modern metrics account for schedule in everything you do. Everything has an expected value based on the opponent, and you're judged by how you perform compared to that number.

Looking at just the strength of schedule is looking at just the adjustment. It's not the meat and potatoes of performance. It's like looking at the green beans and not the whole plate.

In that sense, the committee may look at strength of schedule as a tiebreaker or as one of many factors, same with quad records, away/neutral record, record against teams in the field, etc. But ultimately it's not that important, because it's already baked into more useful numbers on the teamsheet.

The SoS will move a bit, but the new unplayed portion will be worth only 20% of the total since we've played 25 games already.
 
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Miss Valley St is historically bad, one of the worst teams of this decade.

I genuinely think most of the teams in my D2 conference would have beaten them. It's not even the skill level--I watched a couple of their game highlights and it doesn't even look like they're coached. It's pickup basketball with a free college education.
 
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This matters when looking at bubble teams or if a team get upset by a Quad 4. It is so irrelevant for the #1 team in the country. It would be nice from a fan perspective to have marginally better cupcake games or at least a more local feel to those games. The Miss Valley St and Ark Pine Blufff games have no meaning. What we should really want as fans if to have more top tier home games. UConn's top OOC games were Indiana (neutral) Texas (neutral), Kansas (away), UNC (neutral), and Gonzaga (neutral/away). UConn really need to bring some big games to the home crowd. On a side note, it is sad that Depaul is a factor in bringing the SOS down.
 
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UConn really need to bring some big games to the home crowd.

I would assume UConn gets a home game in the Big East-Big 12 Challenge, outside of that, I would not get my hopes up since they travel out to Maui next year and will have the Gonzaga game at MSG. Five high-major teams would appear to be the sweet spot for Hurley with the non-con schedule.

Maui Field: Auburn, Colorado, Dayton, Iowa State, Memphis, Michigan State, UNC, and UConn
 
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Not a ton, because all the other top teams are playing in their conference right now too with (generally) better teams.

Our Non-con SOS is one of the worst in the country. We really need to sort that out.
Mixing cupcakes with tough teams isn’t bad in my opinion. I mean IU sucks this year, but historically is a good program. Add in Texas, @Kansas, UNC, and @ Gonzaga (basically)…I’d say that’s a pretty decent non-conference. Can’t control how those teams pan out either
 
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Mixing cupcakes with tough teams isn’t bad in my opinion. I mean IU sucks this year, but historically is a good program. Add in Texas, @Kansas, UNC, and @ Gonzaga (basically)…I’d say that’s a pretty decent non-conference. Can’t control how those teams pan out either

Playing the literal worst teams in D1 and playing cupcakes are not mutually exclusive. Go play Fairfield or CCSU instead of Northeastern Mississipi Valley State Technical Community College. It's better for SOS and there's still no way we're losing.
 

mets1090

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Overall SOS means next to nothing at this point, as pointed out above. Quality wins and bad losses mean far more, no matter how you want to get there (NET/RPI Quad 1 type stuff, Kenpom A/B, etc). Playing MVSU is not going to stop UConn from getting a 1 seed if they have enough quality wins (which they do) and don't lose to bad teams (which they didn't). Beating 360 by 30 or 160 by 15 will make no difference when all is said and done. The worst of our schedule is in the books now, and we're sitting top 4 in NET and Kenpom. Do well down the stretch and you are a 1 seed, simple as that.

Having said all that, by the time selection Sunday rolls around, UConn will have a strength of schedule around 50th overall and the entire topic won't even really be a point of discussion.
 
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Strength of Schedule isn't very important these days, because it's pretty obviously a flawed stat, especially at the extremes.

Miss Valley St is historically bad, one of the worst teams of this decade. They're killing our SoS numbers. But in addition, thanks to DePaul, No. Arizona being worse than expected, and our general weak cupcake scheduling, we've played 7 teams ranked in the 300s. That's very bad.

Strength of Schedule is too simple for cbb. D1 has a long tail. There are like 60 teams that matter, but there are 240 teams between 60 and 300+. So what happens is that even if you schedule the same number of great teams and terrible teams, your SoS gets dragged down.

Thankfully, modern metrics account for schedule in everything you do. Everything has an expected value based on the opponent, and you're judged by how you perform compared to that number.

Looking at just the strength of schedule is looking at just the adjustment. It's not the meat and potatoes of performance. It's like looking at the green beans and not the whole plate.

In that sense, the committee may look at strength of schedule as a tiebreaker or as one of many factors, same with quad records, away/neutral record, record against teams in the field, etc. But ultimately it's not that important, because it's already baked into more useful numbers on the teamsheet.

The SoS will move a bit, but the new unplayed portion will be worth only 20% of the total since we've played 25 games already.
___k green beans
 
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The performance rankings adjust for playing 360 versus 160 based on how much you win by. But the results metrics, as they should, give you more credit for beating 160 than 360.

We play too much total crap. It's fine to discuss how some computers adjust for that, but it doesn't change the fact that we play too much total crap. Play a god damn A ten school, or a UVM or Iona or Yale every so often. It really shouldn't be so hard to improve the SOS without increasing the number of games that we're just not going to lose at home.
 

QDOG5

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I asked because I saw a video on Youtube that stated since the inception of KenPom no team has won the title being ranked below the cut off number in any of these KP categories. Teams need to be at or below the number in all 4 categories.
AdjEM 25th
AdjO 37th
AdjD 38th
AdjEM SOS 45th

We were 44th in AdjEM SOS going into the tournament last year. We are currently 75th. As stated above we moved down 17 spots after trouncing DePaul. I'm hoping our schedule remaining and a good run in the conference tourney gets us under the number.
 
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I asked because I saw a video on Youtube that stated since the inception of KenPom no team has won the title being ranked below the cut off number in any of these KP categories. Teams need to be at or below the number in all 4 categories.
AdjEM 25th
AdjO 37th
AdjD 38th
AdjEM SOS 45th

We were 44th in AdjEM SOS going into the tournament last year. We are currently 75th. As stated above we moved down 17 spots after trouncing DePaul. I'm hoping our schedule remaining and a good run in the conference tourney gets us under the number.
Just because no team has won a championship with an SOS above 45 since Ken Pom started doing this DOES NOT mean that we have to get our SOS from 46 to 44 to have a chance of winning. Ken Pom himself would tell you that’s a distinction without a difference. It’s not like the NCAA will forbid us from winning based on that one metric.
 
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I asked because I saw a video on Youtube that stated since the inception of KenPom no team has won the title being ranked below the cut off number in any of these KP categories. Teams need to be at or below the number in all 4 categories.
AdjEM 25th
AdjO 37th
AdjD 38th
AdjEM SOS 45th

We were 44th in AdjEM SOS going into the tournament last year. We are currently 75th. As stated above we moved down 17 spots after trouncing DePaul. I'm hoping our schedule remaining and a good run in the conference tourney gets us under the number.
2 things: are those numbers entering the tournament or before? Also, every time I see things like this come up it’s generally “all teams are this or are named UConn.” I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those data points was a previous UConn title winner.
 
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I asked because I saw a video on Youtube that stated since the inception of KenPom no team has won the title being ranked below the cut off number in any of these KP categories. Teams need to be at or below the number in all 4 categories.
AdjEM 25th
AdjO 37th
AdjD 38th
AdjEM SOS 45th

We were 44th in AdjEM SOS going into the tournament last year. We are currently 75th. As stated above we moved down 17 spots after trouncing DePaul. I'm hoping our schedule remaining and a good run in the conference tourney gets us under the number.
I’ve seen stats about Kenpom offense and defense numbers for title teams but I don’t get how the strength of schedule matters for a potential title team.
 
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2 things: are those numbers entering the tournament or before? Also, every time I see things like this come up it’s generally “all teams are this or are named UConn.” I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those data points was a previous UConn title winner.
I think the rule is top 40 offense and top 25 defense entering the tournament. It’s top 40 because of the 2014 team if I remember right
 
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I asked because I saw a video on Youtube that stated since the inception of KenPom no team has won the title being ranked below the cut off number in any of these KP categories. Teams need to be at or below the number in all 4 categories.
AdjEM 25th
AdjO 37th
AdjD 38th
AdjEM SOS 45th

We were 44th in AdjEM SOS going into the tournament last year. We are currently 75th. As stated above we moved down 17 spots after trouncing DePaul. I'm hoping our schedule remaining and a good run in the conference tourney gets us under the number.
We also have to define what above and below mean. You used "below" two different ways in your first two sentences. I'd say teams have to be at or above the number, meaning ranked higher, meaning ranked 1st through 25th, for example.
 
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Not a ton, because all the other top teams are playing in their conference right now too with (generally) better teams.

Our Non-con SOS is one of the worst in the country. We really need to sort that out.

Do we really? Ultimately the only downside is that we might be the 2nd 1 seed instead of the overall 1 seed. It makes us look bad v. Purdue but I'm not sure it really matters.
 
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I asked because I saw a video on Youtube that stated since the inception of KenPom no team has won the title being ranked below the cut off number in any of these KP categories. Teams need to be at or below the number in all 4 categories.
AdjEM 25th
AdjO 37th
AdjD 38th
AdjEM SOS 45th

We were 44th in AdjEM SOS going into the tournament last year. We are currently 75th. As stated above we moved down 17 spots after trouncing DePaul. I'm hoping our schedule remaining and a good run in the conference tourney gets us under the number.
Is it not suspicious that we had a SoS of 44 last year and the cutoff in the video is now 45?

Eventually the exceptions will move the goalposts so far that the data will have no meaning.
 

willie99

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UConn has mostly quality KenPom stats but our Strength of Schedule is bad. We are playing the toughest part of our schedule to end the season. Does anyone know how much the SOS will improve?

Hold on, there are guys on here arguing that doesn't matter

So darn confusing

:)
 
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Do we really? Ultimately the only downside is that we might be the 2nd 1 seed instead of the overall 1 seed. It makes us look bad v. Purdue but I'm not sure it really matters.

Not this year. Doesn't mean it wouldn't affect us down the line though.

I wouldn't care about the 300+ teams if they were local. No reason to have EMVSTCC come up here. Plenty of nad teams in the Northeast.
 

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