I was curious, just how good is RI & Hurley

[willie99]

RI is a good team, I wish them well, I tend to pull for the underdogs. But I've read a lot of comments about how well coached they are, how great their defense is and about how Hurley teams resemble Calhoun teams. This stuff peaked my interest, so I decided to do a little research.

One of the best things about Calhoun teams over the years is great defense, always national leaders in defensive FG%, so I looked it up at Field-Goal Percentage Defense | DI Men's Basketball Statistics - NCAA.com

Defensive FG %
Rhode Island 45.3%, ranked 254th
Connecticut 43.2%, ranked 135th

So RI's defense does not remotely resemble anything Jim Calhoun ever put on the court (usually under 40%) , and Ollie's defense is considerably better than Hurley's despite playing significantly tougher competition.

While looking at this stat, I thought noting the following might be interesting to some people

1) Mich St
2) Cinci
3) VA
6) Houston
8) Cuse
9) UCF
41) Rutgers, Steve Pikiel appears to be teaching a Calhoun type of defense


Next, rebounding margin

 

[husky429]

Check out defensive 3%. Rhody really smothers the perimeter which may partly explain the garbage ##s you shared

 

[willie99]

Rebounding margin, another strength of Jim Calhoun teams, almost always in the top ten Rebound Margin | DI Men's Basketball Statistics - NCAA.com

1) UNC
2) Mich St
3) Wichita St
7) Cinci
10) Houston
76) CCSU
89) RU
189) Rhode Island +.4
285) Connecticut -2.6

Playing in a much weaker conference against much weaker rebounding teams and having a much weaker OOC schedule, URI is better than us in rebounding margin.

But one thing is absolutely certain, although Dan Hurley may be a good coach, nothing about his teams resemble anything about a Jim Calhoun team, at least not in the two things Jim Calhoun teams did best.

FWIW

and I had no idea what I would find when I started this exercise

 

[Storrs South]

I am not an expert by any means when it comes to modern day statistics, but wouldn't using something like KenPom's efficiency metrics be a better indicator since they account for pace of play, shot diversification (2s v. 3s), and other critical variables that raw FG% and rebounding margins cannot? They obviously are somewhat indicative but don't tell the whole story.

Take for example:

Wagner

• 2009-2010 was KenPom 335 before Hurley joins the program, one of the worst teams in the country
• 2010-2011 -- Hurley's first season with the program, and immediate improvement finishing the season KenPom 230 (Increase by 135 spots)
• 2011-2012 -- Hurley's second and last season with Wagner, another huge jump in improvement finishing KenPom 102 (Increase by 128 spots). He took one of the worst teams in CBB and in 2 years had them playing decent basketball. He is then hired away by Rhode Island after the season
• 2012-13 Hurley has left the program and Wagner falls back to KenPom 184 (decrease by 82 spots)

Overall, in 2 seasons Hurley took Wagner from #335 to #102 that's a 180 degree turnaround.

Rhode Island

• 2011-2012 was KenPom 225 before Hurley joins the program, not as bad as Wagner started in his tenure there but not significantly worse than the nice KenPom 173 Ollie has UConn at currently for those looking for a benchmark
• 2012-2013 -- Hurley's first season with the program, like Wagner there's a jump in rankings up to KenPom 193 (Increase by 32 spots). Not as significant as we saw with Wagner but still improvement
• 2013-2014 -- Hurley's second season with URI, and would you look at they finish the year KenPom 115 (Increase by 78 spots). The same story is starting to take hold again and in both cases the jumps between year 1 & year 2 are quite noticeable on paper.
• 2014-2015 -- Hurley's third season with URI, and don't look now but they finish the year KenPom 60! They make it to the NIT and lose in the 2nd round.
• 2015-2016 -- Hurley's fourth season with URI, they finish the year KenPom 82. The one of the few times in this story where Hurley goes backwards using KenPom as the gold standard for measuring the quality of a team's performance. I think he had a lot of guys graduate and transfer after the previous season but I wont use that as an excuse since I'm tired of hearing it used as an excuse for UConn's current slide from KenPom 26 in 2015-16 to KenPom 96 (decrease by 70) last year to KenPom 173 (decrease by 77) this year. The drop this season was small nevertheless. Anyway back to the story...
• 2016-2017 -- Hurley's fifth season with URI, they finish the season KenPom 34! As we all saw last year they make it to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tourney and lose a close game almost making it to the 2nd weekend.
• 2017-2018 -- (in progress) Hurley's URI Rams currently sit at KenPom 47 as of this posting.

Overall, he took a team that was KenPom 225 and has them in the NCAA Tournament in back to back seasons by years 5 & 6. Another 180 degree turnaround, the kind UConn could use right about now.

Now to summarize this, it's likely none of us have watched much Wagner or URI basketball from the last decade, but on paper it is evident that the moment Hurley comes to a program it immediately turns around and does so in a hurry. What Hurley accomplished in a short stint at Wagner and in his current role at URI are remarkable when you consider 1) the conference 2) the facilities 3) the non-existent or relatively non-existent fanbases 4) minimal exposure 5) history 6) ability to recruit (which goes back to 1 through 5) and 7) brand

If Hurley does come here, I don't want to set him up for failure or anything but can you imagine what he could do with KenPom 173 UConn when he got these mid-majors to play quality basketball almost immediately. We are basically in the exact spot URI was before Hurley came to Kingston and look where they are now.

There are not many coaches every year that come around with this kind of track record of building programs at institutions where resources are lacking. Even if they lost the 1st game of the NCAA Tourney it wouldn't matter to me. Considering where he had to start from at Wagner & URI I think this is only the beginning of what he can do when given proper resources and quality recruits to be competitive on the national stage.

 

[msgordon]

URI adjusted d is 37th
UCONN is 160

that accounts for strength of schedule. rhode island allows less 3pa than anyone in the country. uconns opponents have attempted THREE HUNDRED more threes than URIs opponents. and they play at a quicker pace than we do. opponents 3pt fg% is tough to control and more subject to variance, but their 3pt% defense against is better than ours as well. all this should point you directly to coaching philosophy, and hurley correctly understanding to design a defense limiting the type of shots that are most effective. while ollie is probably still stuck in the 90s looking at our fg%, leaving the film room satisfied to go grab a drink

 

[UConnDad]

I am not an expert by any means when it comes to modern day statistics, but wouldn't using something like KenPom's efficiency metrics be a better indicator since they account for pace of play, shot diversification (2s v. 3s), and other critical variables that raw FG% and rebounding margins cannot? They obviously are somewhat indicative but don't tell the whole story.

Take for example:

Wagner

• 2009-2010 was KenPom 335 before Hurley joins the program, one of the worst teams in the country
• 2010-2011 -- Hurley's first season with the program, and immediate improvement finishing the season KenPom 230 (Increase by 135 spots)
• 2011-2012 -- Hurley's second and last season with Wagner, another huge jump in improvement finishing KenPom 102 (Increase by 128 spots). He took one of the worst teams in CBB and in 2 years had them playing decent basketball. He is then hired away by Rhode Island after the season
• 2012-13 Hurley has left the program and Wagner falls back to KenPom 184 (decrease by 82 spots)

Overall, in 2 seasons Hurley took Wagner from #335 to #102 that's a 180 degree turnaround.

Rhode Island

• 2011-2012 was KenPom 225 before Hurley joins the program, not as bad as Wagner started in his tenure there but not significantly worse than the nice KenPom 173 Ollie has UConn at currently for those looking for a benchmark
• 2012-2013 -- Hurley's first season with the program, like Wagner there's a jump in rankings up to KenPom 193 (Increase by 32 spots). Not as significant as we saw with Wagner but still improvement
• 2013-2014 -- Hurley's second season with URI, and would you look at they finish the year KenPom 115 (Increase by 78 spots). The same story is starting to take hold again and in both cases the jumps between year 1 & year 2 are quite noticeable on paper.
• 2014-2015 -- Hurley's third season with URI, and don't look now but they finish the year KenPom 60! They make it to the NIT and lose in the 2nd round.
• 2015-2016 -- Hurley's fourth season with URI, they finish the year KenPom 82. The one of the few times in this story where Hurley goes backwards using KenPom as the gold standard for measuring the quality of a team's performance. I think he had a lot of guys graduate and transfer after the previous season but I wont use that as an excuse since I'm tired of hearing it used as an excuse for UConn's current slide from KenPom 26 in 2015-16 to KenPom 96 (decrease by 70) last year to KenPom 173 (decrease by 77) this year. The drop this season was small nevertheless. Anyway back to the story...
• 2016-2017 -- Hurley's fifth season with URI, they finish the season KenPom 34! As we all saw last year they make it to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tourney and lose a close game almost making it to the 2nd weekend.
• 2017-2018 -- (in progress) Hurley's URI Rams currently sit at KenPom 47 as of this posting.

Overall, he took a team that was KenPom 225 and has them in the NCAA Tournament in back to back seasons by years 5 & 6. Another 180 degree turnaround, the kind UConn could use right about now.

Now to summarize this, it's likely none of us have watched much Wagner or URI basketball from the last decade, but on paper it is evident that the moment Hurley comes to a program it immediately turns around and does so in a hurry. What Hurley accomplished in a short stint at Wagner and in his current role at URI are remarkable when you consider 1) the conference 2) the facilities 3) the non-existent or relatively non-existent fanbases 4) minimal exposure 5) history 6) ability to recruit (which goes back to 1 through 5) and 7) brand

If Hurley does come here, I don't want to set him up for failure or anything but can you imagine what he could do with KenPom 173 UConn when he got these mid-majors to play quality basketball almost immediately. We are basically in the exact spot URI was before Hurley came to Kingston and look where they are now.

There are not many coaches every year that come around with this kind of track record of building programs at institutions where resources are lacking. Even if they lost the 1st game of the NCAA Tourney it wouldn't matter to me. Considering where he had to start from at Wagner & URI I think this is only the beginning of what he can do when given proper resources and quality recruits to be competitive on the national stage.

This is great research. It makes me realize how tough it's going to be for AD Dave. This is just one potential replacement. Could we get Hurley, someone better, or not? If we could, eat a multi million dollar buyout, hope Hurley stays on a similar trajectory, and we get back to the tourney in 5 years. Or, don't eat the contract and hope we improve and get back to the tourney. I certainly don't have the answer. I just need him to make the correct decision.

 

[Huskybass]

Hurley has URI at 23-6 and 44th in the country in scoring margin and 76th in assists per game. URI is 67th in the nation in 3 pt fg defense.

UConn is 14-16 with a losing record for the 2nd straight year and is 293rd in scoring margin and 342nd in assists per game. UConn is 260th in the nation in 3 point fg defense.

I can cite dozens of statistics that track similarly. You are what your record says you are. Anything else is just spin with an agenda.

URI will be playing in the NCAA tourney for the 2nd straight season, while UConn will likely have no post season for the 2nd year in a row. I enjoy the big dance a lot more when my team paricipates. Hurley's URI teams play hard, play as a team, and make the tourney. Those are the most important similarities.

 

[Edward Sargent]

Check out defensive 3%. Rhody really smothers the perimeter which may partly explain the garbage ##s you shared

Why do you have to call them garbage numbers. Data is data

 

[mauconnfan]

Check out defensive 3%. Rhody really smothers the perimeter which may partly explain the garbage ##s you shared

The fact is they better be better at guarding the perimeter because they hardly ever have anyone over 6'5" on the court at any time of the game. They are small, faster and should be good at that. So having said that while they guard the 3 really well those garbage numbers point to the fact they can't stop the 2 as well as most because they are too small.

I'm not dissing Hurley I have no idea if he's the answer, I mean he does win. Just hope he doesn't like small ball too much because it may win in the A10 regular season, but it will not win NC's you need bigs and preferably 2 on the court most of the time. I don't know enough about his teams over the years to think he just can't get bigs or prefers to play small, but as I said I would hope he'd change with the need.

 

[willie99]

Check out defensive 3%. Rhody really smothers the perimeter which may partly explain the garbage ##s you shared

Garbage numbers? LMFAO

All I did was go to the NCAA site that accumulates statistics for NCAA teams. I wanted to learn why Hurley reminded us of "Calhoun coached teams", I really didn't know what I'd find.

When I think of Jim Calhoun coached teams, I think of defensive FG% and rebounding margins, the two things he emphasized and the stuff I was most proud of.

What I found was that Dan Hurley's teams do not play like Jim Calhoun's teams, it's that simple, anyone who argues otherwise just doesn't know any better. And here's the difference between me and the dumpster fire crowd, I'd have reported the numbers no matter how good or bad they were.

I didn't spin one thing, I didn't adjust the numbers, I did use biorhythms or algorithms or Ken Pom or pace or 528 or Michael Moore or some MIT math model to change the results. I kept in simple.

In typical boneyard (and American) fashion, people just hate facts that don't fit their narrative, then they attack the messenger for just telling them the truth.

Objectively speaking, Dan Hurley simply does not coach like Jim Calhoun, it's in the numbers. Subjectively speaking, he may still be a very good coach.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Good discussion. Thanks everyone.

 

[willie99]

As requested, 3pt FG% defense

RI 67th at 32.9

1) Grand Canyon
2) UK
3) Penn
4) S AL
5) SD
6) VA
7) Northeastern
8) Sam Houston
9) Middle TN
10) N KY
11) Green Bay
12) Boise

save for UK and VA, not exactly the type of teams you find at the top of the statistical charts I value most and posted, and URI is not near the top of that stat either

again, FWIW, somebody who thought I was posting "garbage numbers" thought looking at this would be more valuable

Three Pt FG Defense | DI Men's Basketball Statistics - NCAA.com

 

[donyell34]

It's all good Willie, Appreciate the effort and the data.

 

[willie99]

URI adjusted d is 37th
UCONN is 160

that accounts for strength of schedule. rhode island allows less 3pa than anyone in the country. uconns opponents have attempted THREE HUNDRED more threes than URIs opponents. and they play at a quicker pace than we do. opponents 3pt fg% is tough to control and more subject to variance, but their 3pt% defense against is better than ours as well. all this should point you directly to coaching philosophy, and hurley correctly understanding to design a defense limiting the type of shots that are most effective. while ollie is probably still stuck in the 90s looking at our fg%, leaving the film room satisfied to go grab a drink

Team A allows teams to shoot 45.3% and plays a weaker schedule
Team B allows teams to shoot 43.2% and plays 11 games against highly ranked teams with national title aspirations

and there's a way to spin that into Team A being vastly superior on defense? that's funny

From where I'm sitting, neither team plays great defense, and neither team plays anything close to what Jim Calhoun would consider acceptable defense

 

[dennismenace]

Garbage numbers? LMFAO

All I did was go to the NCAA site that accumulates statistics for NCAA teams. I wanted to learn why Hurley reminded us of "Calhoun coached teams", I really didn't know what I'd find.

When I think of Jim Calhoun coached teams, I think of defensive FG% and rebounding margins, the two things he emphasized and the stuff I was most proud of.

What I found was that Dan Hurley's teams do not play like Jim Calhoun's teams, it's that simple, anyone who argues otherwise just doesn't know any better. And here's the difference between me and the dumpster fire crowd, I'd have reported the numbers no matter how good or bad they were.

I didn't spin one thing, I didn't adjust the numbers, I did use biorhythms or algorithms or Ken Pom or pace or 528 or Michael Moore or some MIT math model to change the results. I kept in simple.

In typical boneyard (and American) fashion, people just hate facts that don't fit their narrative, then they attack the messenger for just telling them the truth.

Objectively speaking, Dan Hurley simply does not coach like Jim Calhoun, it's in the numbers. Subjectively speaking, he may still be a very good coach.

One additional point about Calhoun's teams was shot blocking which was ridiculously great. I could not find the year by year numbers but many times Uconn led the country or was very close to the top. This is very compelling because it shows defensive intimidation and also does not reflect shots altered. Blocked shots and rebounding
were reminiscent of the great Red Aurbach Celtic teams. Aurbach was a big influence on Calhoun.

 

[auggie22]

This is why the interview process is so important. You hope a coach can articulate that he managed his team to achieve in a certain way based upon the strengths and weaknesses of that team and their opponents.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Just keep in mind Hurley is doing all of this with a lot less talent than we have here. He has no Jalen Adams or even Terry Larrier type of talent...just saying

 

[mauconnfan]

Just keep in mind Hurley is doing all of this with a lot less talent than we have here. He has no Jalen Adams or even Terry Larrier type of talent...just saying

Huh? While I get the Jalen Adams analogy have you seen their kids play. They are better basketball players than most of ours, certainly Terry Larrier. It may be experience that makes them better but they have scorers and ball handlers which makes them better as we speak. I would not take Larrier over any of their first 5-6 players, maybe 7.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Just keep in mind Hurley is doing all of this with a lot less talent than we have here. He has no Jalen Adams or even Terry Larrier type of talent...just saying

He has 3 4*s. Which is attributable to him. Let us see how the season plays out.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Next up, Willie compares power hitters by RBI totals.

 

[Whtdmd]

Rhode Island is currently 47 on Kenpom. This is not good enough for the NCAA unless they win the A10 tourney. Hurley's team is essentially all seniors this yr. Their performance is actually below expectations given their preseason rank. URI will be at the bottom of the A10 next yr if Hurley stays.

 

[Whtdmd]

I am not an expert by any means when it comes to modern day statistics, but wouldn't using something like KenPom's efficiency metrics be a better indicator since they account for pace of play, shot diversification (2s v. 3s), and other critical variables that raw FG% and rebounding margins cannot? They obviously are somewhat indicative but don't tell the whole story.

Take for example:

Wagner

• 2009-2010 was KenPom 335 before Hurley joins the program, one of the worst teams in the country
• 2010-2011 -- Hurley's first season with the program, and immediate improvement finishing the season KenPom 230 (Increase by 135 spots)
• 2011-2012 -- Hurley's second and last season with Wagner, another huge jump in improvement finishing KenPom 102 (Increase by 128 spots). He took one of the worst teams in CBB and in 2 years had them playing decent basketball. He is then hired away by Rhode Island after the season
• 2012-13 Hurley has left the program and Wagner falls back to KenPom 184 (decrease by 82 spots)

Overall, in 2 seasons Hurley took Wagner from #335 to #102 that's a 180 degree turnaround.

Rhode Island

• 2011-2012 was KenPom 225 before Hurley joins the program, not as bad as Wagner started in his tenure there but not significantly worse than the nice KenPom 173 Ollie has UConn at currently for those looking for a benchmark
• 2012-2013 -- Hurley's first season with the program, like Wagner there's a jump in rankings up to KenPom 193 (Increase by 32 spots). Not as significant as we saw with Wagner but still improvement
• 2013-2014 -- Hurley's second season with URI, and would you look at they finish the year KenPom 115 (Increase by 78 spots). The same story is starting to take hold again and in both cases the jumps between year 1 & year 2 are quite noticeable on paper.
• 2014-2015 -- Hurley's third season with URI, and don't look now but they finish the year KenPom 60! They make it to the NIT and lose in the 2nd round.
• 2015-2016 -- Hurley's fourth season with URI, they finish the year KenPom 82. The one of the few times in this story where Hurley goes backwards using KenPom as the gold standard for measuring the quality of a team's performance. I think he had a lot of guys graduate and transfer after the previous season but I wont use that as an excuse since I'm tired of hearing it used as an excuse for UConn's current slide from KenPom 26 in 2015-16 to KenPom 96 (decrease by 70) last year to KenPom 173 (decrease by 77) this year. The drop this season was small nevertheless. Anyway back to the story...
• 2016-2017 -- Hurley's fifth season with URI, they finish the season KenPom 34! As we all saw last year they make it to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tourney and lose a close game almost making it to the 2nd weekend.
• 2017-2018 -- (in progress) Hurley's URI Rams currently sit at KenPom 47 as of this posting.

Overall, he took a team that was KenPom 225 and has them in the NCAA Tournament in back to back seasons by years 5 & 6. Another 180 degree turnaround, the kind UConn could use right about now.

Now to summarize this, it's likely none of us have watched much Wagner or URI basketball from the last decade, but on paper it is evident that the moment Hurley comes to a program it immediately turns around and does so in a hurry. What Hurley accomplished in a short stint at Wagner and in his current role at URI are remarkable when you consider 1) the conference 2) the facilities 3) the non-existent or relatively non-existent fanbases 4) minimal exposure 5) history 6) ability to recruit (which goes back to 1 through 5) and 7) brand

If Hurley does come here, I don't want to set him up for failure or anything but can you imagine what he could do with KenPom 173 UConn when he got these mid-majors to play quality basketball almost immediately. We are basically in the exact spot URI was before Hurley came to Kingston and look where they are now.

There are not many coaches every year that come around with this kind of track record of building programs at institutions where resources are lacking. Even if they lost the 1st game of the NCAA Tourney it wouldn't matter to me. Considering where he had to start from at Wagner & URI I think this is only the beginning of what he can do when given proper resources and quality recruits to be competitive on the national stage.

You are assuming that Hurley can recruit our area, His dad was a legend in NJ and Danny coached at St Benedicts. How is it now that he can't recruit anyone from the state of NJ since being a coach at URI. Think about it

 

[David 76]

I would be happy with Hurley. I wouldn't limit the search (been there, done that), but I feel he would certainly be an improvement.
I would not be happy with Hobbs or Miller. Some here have made them out to be great coaches. I don't think any of Calhoun's assistants have proven anything except maybe Steve. I wish them all success, but, collectively, they have not fared well.

 

[Paesano]

Hurley may not be Calhoun but he is doing more with less at RI than Ollie is here. Hurley>Ollie. I like steps in the right direction. Hurley>Ollie.

 

[Tuna]

Hurley's team is essentially all seniors this yr. Their performance is actually below expectations given their preseason rank. URI will be at the bottom of the A10 next yr if Hurley stays.

It's amazing that a lot of people don't seem to consider this.