Gampel v. XL Shooting

[husky429]

People keep claiming that we shoot the 3 better at Gampel than XL. I thought my eye test had it, but it was much more even than I expected. I figured we'd see at least a 3-4 point difference in favor of Gampel.

I didn't include the no fans season at Gampel and it's only during Hurley's tenure that I calculated. I started with the Ollie years but got very sad. It was hard enough looking at how bad our opponents were in the AAC; I couldn't take any more.

Personally, I'm going with XL purely based on shooting (not fan experience) because the shooting is essentially the same, but having more top-50 opponents is the decider. FWIW, the difference between the venues is about 6 makes. I could imagine playing a few better defensive teams (or shoot, just a few more boneheaded plays vs cupcakes) could explain the difference overall. To me, our 3 point shooting is essentially the same at each venue.

Gampel:

• Total Total: 193/558 = 34.6%
• 21.5 attempts per game
• Top-50 games: 3
• 51-99 games: 6
• 100-199 games: 6
• 200-299 games: 8
• Sub 300 games: 3
• Average Opponent Ranking: 161

XL:

• Attempts180/532 = 33.8%
• 21.3 attempts per game
• Top-50 games: 7
• 51-99 games: 4
• 100-199 games: 3
• 200-299 games: 7
• Sub 300 games: 4
• Average Opponent Ranking: 163

 

[HooperScooper]

So you're saying they've just been an overall relatively poor 3 point shooting team?

 

[auror]

0.8% is significant I think. Its the difference between an average shooting team and an above average shooting team (based on 2022 ranks ~105 vs. ~170).

 

[geordi]

That”s essentially the same issue on a smaller scale that’s been raised before. The shooting percentages, especially from longer range, are poorer at large venues. The NCAA Finsl Four is normally played these days in 50, 60, 70,000 seat arenas. (Gotta make a buck, don’t you know.). The backdrop is so huge and

 

[geordi]

Unfamiliar that it sffects the shot.

 

[husky429]

0.8% is significant I think. Its the difference between an average shooting team and an above average shooting team (based on 2022 ranks ~105 vs. ~170).

0.8 is 6 made shots out of around 500 attempts. Considering we played over double the number of elite teams at XL, I'd make the argument we may have even shoot BETTER at XL over these seasons if we adjusted for the overall level of defense (which I don't know how to do). Level of competition matters here. It's easy to shoot 40% vs Georgetown, less so vs Nova.

Generally speaking, I'm more of a fan of Gampel. But I think we're kidding ourselves if we say we shoot better at the venue after looking at these #s.

 

[husky429]

So you're saying they've just been an overall relatively poor 3 point shooting team?

Yes, lol.

 

[Jbirdp5]

0.8 is 6 made shots out of around 500 attempts. Considering we played over double the number of elite teams at XL, I'd make the argument we may have even shoot BETTER at XL over these seasons if we adjusted for the overall level of defense (which I don't know how to do). Level of competition matters here. It's easy to shoot 40% vs Georgetown, less so vs Nova.

Generally speaking, I'm more of a fan of Gampel. But I think we're kidding ourselves if we say we shoot better at the venue after looking at these #s.

The only thing I can thing of that I don’t think can be calculated is that if we played all of our home games in one venue it might increase our 3 point shooting percentage. Having one true home court where you are never adjusting might tick up that percentage a bit.

 

[husky429]

The only thing I can thing of that I don’t think can be calculated is that if we played all of our home games in one venue it might increase our 3 point shooting percentage. Having one true home court where you are never adjusting might tick up that percentage a bit.

True. We shot 33.5% in for our 2020-2021 season that was only at Gampel fwiw. Lower than the others a tiny bit, but it was just a weird season so I wouldn't really put much stock into it.

 

[Kenny11]

I just notice that players fall down more at XL. Buffalo players were falling all over the place on Tuesday…uconn seemed to have better foot grip

 

[husky210]

I just notice that players fall down more at XL. Buffalo players were falling all over the place on Tuesday…uconn seemed to have better foot grip

I think the hockey ice under the floor has some effect.

 

[auror]

0.8 is 6 made shots out of around 500 attempts. Considering we played over double the number of elite teams at XL, I'd make the argument we may have even shoot BETTER at XL over these seasons if we adjusted for the overall level of defense (which I don't know how to do). Level of competition matters here. It's easy to shoot 40% vs Georgetown, less so vs Nova.

Opponents don't have much control over our 3pt make %. Been a few studies on this. They can control frequency, but not really make%. Home court matters and your own team skill matters much, much more. Both of those are controlled in your study since we play similar number of games at each venue a year.

Just look at how many wide open 3s we missed vs. cupcakes and then in 1 game we made them all. Defense wasn't much different. It's mostly random number generator within a window based on your skill. It's pretty similar to "free throw defense." It's why you need a lot of attempts for true skill to become predictable. More than 1 season's worth generally.

The only exception is zone defense, because teams tend to actually take more contested and late clock 3s than against man to man (where they generally don't take 3s if they are heavily contested).

https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-the-summary/

 

[husky429]

Opponents don't have much control over our 3pt make %.

In a game here or there? Sure. Over 50 games? I don't buy it. What is a good defense other than someone that forces the opponent to take lower % shots? 3s off the dribble, late shot clock, etc?

Should we not try to force off the dribble 3s, late shot clock attempts or attempts by lower % players since it doesn't katter anyways?

 

[Waquoit]

There is no competitive advantage between Gampel and XL.

 

[husky429]

There is no competitive advantage between Gampel and XL.

I was thinking Gampel would have a significant advantage closer to home v away stats, but it really doesn't. Any advantage is going to be with $$$ and building attendance/fan base. And I don't really know enough about that side of things to really have an opinion on one venue vs the other.

There's certainly an advantage to the greater # of seats at XL and access from more of the state for fans, but Gampel is student friendly, doesn't require us to pay to play there, and doesn't have the same structural issues that XL does. I think folks that think there's anything close to a black and white answer here are delusional. It's complicated.

 

[UCLJ0211]

I’d like to see a comparison of our W/L records at Gampel vs. XL. I think the bigger advantage of Gampel is the students and generally a more lively and raucous crowd. The only exception is maybe when there’s a big time game (like Nova last year) at XL and the crowd actually gets into it- but again, this is more the exception than the norm.

I was able to find our record at Gampel online is 210-40 through last year (.840). I would bet our winning % is lower at XL, just a hunch-but I couldn’t seem to find it anywhere. If anyone can find it online please comment/reply.

 

[husky429]

I’d like to see a comparison of our W/L records at Gampel vs. XL. I think the bigger advantage of Gampel is the students and generally a more lively and raucous crowd. The only exception is maybe when there’s a big time game like Nova last year comes to XL and the crowd actually gets into it- but this is more the exception than the norm.

I was able to find our record at Gampel online is 210-40 through last year (.840). I would bet our winning % is lower at XL, just a hunch- if anyone can find it online please comment/reply.

I could probably find it later, but I think to accurately get a sense of whether Gampel is an advantage you'd need to learn about the strength of schedule at each venue and correct for it. We seem to play our bigger, more challenging games at XL, which would likely effect our record.

I would assume Gampel has a better W/L record. I also assumed we would shoot significantly better there and was wrong. So who knows... if you put together the data, I'll be happy to hit you with a "like."

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

XL has an odd shooters eye for sure but I don’t think it necessarily causes us to shoot more poorly. It is an uglier building so maybe we think that means our shooting is uglier

 

[Waquoit]

On a long flight about 5 years ago, I went through the media guide with pen and paper tallying up the respective records of the 2 venues. They were virtually identical going out to 3 places. I posted the numbers on the Yard if someone wants to go look for it.

 

[Waquoit]

The XL rims are softer than a baby's bottom.

 

[kcc1442]

Opponents don't have much control over our 3pt make %. Been a few studies on this. They can control frequency, but not really make%. Home court matters and your own team skill matters much, much more. Both of those are controlled in your study since we play similar number of games at each venue a year.

Just look at how many wide open 3s we missed vs. cupcakes and then in 1 game we made them all. Defense wasn't much different. It's mostly random number generator within a window based on your skill. It's pretty similar to "free throw defense." It's why you need a lot of attempts for true skill to become predictable. More than 1 season's worth generally.

The only exception is zone defense, because teams tend to actually take more contested and late clock 3s than against man to man (where they generally don't take 3s if they are heavily contested).

https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-the-summary/

In a game here or there? Sure. Over 50 games? I don't buy it. What is a good defense other than someone that forces the opponent to take lower % shots? 3s off the dribble, late shot clock, etc?

Should we not try to force off the dribble 3s, late shot clock attempts or attempts by lower % players since it doesn't katter anyways?

It's not all about just bigger, faster, stronger and longer athletes with better defense for the high rated teams. It's nerves and shooting threes in close games versus blow outs that matters a lot more. Confidence and pressure are two factors that would come into play here big time. The assumption would be that you would shoot lower percentages against better teams simply because the shots mean more.

 

[REB1094]

There's lots of reasons why the team performs better at Gampel instead of XL, but a top team (which we are trying to be) should be able to perform strongly no matter what arena they play in. Especially if we're talking about 2 different HOME arenas

I'd like all the games at Gampel but it really shouldn't matter..

 

[husky429]

There's lots of reasons why the team performs better at Gampel instead of XL, but a top team (which we are trying to be) should be able to perform strongly no matter what arena they play in. Especially if we're talking about 2 different HOME arenas

I'd like all the games at Gampel but it really shouldn't matter..

The whole point of this thread is that the idea we perform better at Gampel is dubious at best. Did you read my post? Lol

 

[husky429]

It's not all about just bigger, faster, stronger and longer athletes with better defense for the high rated teams. It's nerves and shooting threes in close games versus blow outs that matters a lot more. Confidence and pressure are two factors that would come into play here big time. The assumption would be that you would shoot lower percentages against better teams simply because the shots mean more.

Good point. A lot of complicating factors.

Or you can be Marcus Smart and shoot 17% on wide open threes and 41% closely defended (seriously). The game of basketball is weird man

 

[NotADime89]

There's lots of reasons why the team performs better at Gampel instead of XL, but a top team (which we are trying to be) should be able to perform strongly no matter what arena they play in. Especially if we're talking about 2 different HOME arenas

I'd like all the games at Gampel but it really shouldn't matter..

That's just not true as @Waquoit has posted before, the performances are almost identical in both venues and thats supported by facts not this made up notion in peoples minds that we play better at Gampel