Game Analysis and Comments - UCLA vs UCONN (Game 5)

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS:

Well here we go...playing the #2 ranked UCLA. Playing a game like this so early in the season is risky in that some teams reach mid-season form earlier than others. UCLA is an offensive juggernaut averaging 93 points per game. However, upon further dissection, UCLA has played Bellarmine - 309 RPI / 211 SOS; UC Riverside - 335 RPI / 242 SOS; Purdue - 54 RPI / 47 SOS and Princeton - 24 RPI / 58 SOS. When we compare that with UConn's RPI / SOS we get Dayton 285 RPI / 152 SOS; Minnesota 195 RPI / 83 SOS; North Carolina State 21 RPI / 7 SOS; Maryland 6 RPI / 2 SOS. Overall UCLA's RPI / SOS are 15 / 12 while UConn's is 5 / 8.

UCLA has a tall frontcourt with talented bigs and a very talented backcourt with quick guards. This is a difficult team to play...even though we will be playing on a neutral court in the Cayman Islands. This marque match-up pits #8 UConn against #2 UCLA. A lot could go wrong in this game and in order to win we will need a lot to go right.

More than likely UCLA will start, Kiki Rice, a 5'11" sophomore guard (12.3 points, 6.3 Assists); Londyan Jones, a 5'4" sophomore guard (14 points, 3.5 three-pointers per game); Charisma Osborne, 5'9" graduate guard (17.3 points, 4.8 Assists, 3.5 three-pointers per game); Gabriella Jacquez, a 6'0" sophomore forward (16.8 points, 6.8 rebounds); and a 6'7" sophomore center (19.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.8 Assists). These starters collectively account for 79.9 points and 30.9 rebounds per game. Their bench collectively accounts for 25.3 points and 24.8 rebounds per game.

UConn's starters assuming Azzi does not play account for 51.3 points and 24.6 rebounds per game. UConn's bench accounts for 23.9 points and 9 rebounds per game. It is obvious from the collective stats that UConn is short on points and short on rebounds. So, one of two things or both simultaneously has to happen...either UConn must manufacture more points...which goes to Tonyc's point in the thread he started saying that players need to take more shots or UConn's defense must be so smothering and so oppressive that we take UCLA out of their game or preferably UConn does both. I know that Paige will step up or this game...she loves the big stage...the question I have is will there be others who will step up and make a difference in this game? On paper UConn does not win this game...it will come down to intangibles, will to win, more aggressive offensive play, strong, oppressive defense, and hopefully an off-game for UCLA players. UCLA is enjoying their highest ranking at #2... it will be a true test to see where UConn is at in their season and what they will need to do in order to improve to become a national contender in March/April.

MATCH-UPS

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" Senior Forward vs Lauren Betts 6'7" Sophomore Center

This is going to be a tough match-up for Aaliyah Edwards as she will be giving up 4 inches to Lauren Betts. I think you may see some zone played here as Geno will look to protect Aaliyah from getting into foul trouble and will need some weak-side help if they expect to contain Betts in the paint...I suspect part of the strategy here will be to try and push Lauren away from the basket and try to force her to take mid-range jumpers. Lauren's stats are what you would expect from a good big. 19.5 points and 10.8 rebounds are impressive. I do worry that Aaliyah may get into foul trouble...we are not deep in the post. On the other hand, it sure would be nice if we could get Lauren into foul trouble but that is unlikely as Lauren has only committed a total of 3 fouls in 4 games. Aliyah's stats are also laudable 18.0 points and 7.0 rebounds however, will Lauren's size present a problem for Aaliyah...hopefully Aaliyah can draw Lauren outside away from the basket and if Aaliyah can hit some foul line jumpers and mid-range shots this match-up could be a draw...however, playing the odds I have to call this one: ADVANTAGE - UCLA

Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Graduate Guard / Forward vs Gabriella Jacque 6'0" Sophomore Forward

Gabriella is having a great year so far...she is averaging 16.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game...she also contributes with assists, steals, and blocked shots (1.5; 1.3; and 1.25 per game). Aubrey Griffin may be the best suited to playing Gabriella as Aubrey's size and athleticism may be able to slow Gabriella down. Aubrey for whatever reason hasn't rounded up to form yet as she is only averaging 6.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. She also contributes with assists, steals, and blocks (1.3; 1.0; 1.5 per game). If you take away the 10 points extra that Gabriella averages per game over Aubrey you technically have the same player. If Aubrey's defense can keep Gabriella Jacque under her average then I would put this position at: ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ducharme 6'2" Junior Guard vs Charisma Osborne 5'9" Graduate Guard

Caroline Ducharme so far this season is a mystery. You just don't know what you are going to get. In this potential match-up, Caroline would enjoy a 5-inch height advantage. Of course, that could be good and that could be bad depending on how well Caroline defends against Charisma. Charisma has been very productive this year averaging 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds while also contributing 4.8 assists, 1.3 steals, and 3.5 three-pointers per game. Caroline is not yet playing up to form and is in fact rather anemic with regards to game stats. So, I think she may get the start but Geno will go to the bench quickly and often in order to keep giving Charisma different looks in an effort to slow her down. This is another reason why I think we are going to see Geno use a lot of zone in this game. Using Q or KK will help in the man-to-man scheme of things but if Charisma's game statistics hold it will be challenging for UConn. Based on this match-up alone I have to go with: ADVANTAGE - UCLA

Paige Bueckers 6'0" RS Junior Guard vs Kiki Rice 5'11" Sophomore Guard

I have no doubt that we will see a superb game from Paige in this one...she loves the big stage and she will come to play. Paige is averaging 17.8 points and 5.8 rebounds to go with 3.0 assists, and 2.0 steals. KiKi is a great player and a great pass-first guard her game stats are not that bad with 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game..she isn't in love with the three but she can make them. She will have her hands full with defending Paige as will Paige defending KiKi. However, I will go with: ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11 Senior Guard vs Londyan Jones 5'4" Sophomore Guard

Nika needs a statement game and I believe this is her opportunity to do so providing she can stay out of foul trouble. Lately, she hasn't been able to do that. Nika will have to play Londyan Jones closely. Londyan likes shooting 3s and she is currently making 3.5 per game. She is a scoring threat but not outside the range of NIka...if Nika isn't shy and takes the shots that are there for her she can have a decent night with regards to scoring. Londyan averages 14 points per game, she will contribute assists and rebounds (2.0 and 2.3 per game). I believe that Nika will impact the game with assists and defensively will make it a tough night for Londyan. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

UCLA has a decent bench that can bring into the game 25.3 points and 17.5 rebounds. UConn's bench can bring into the game 23.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. So far this season UConn 3:1 has beaten teams with a RPI of 6, 195 and 285 and has faced teams with a Strength of Schedule (SOS) of 2, 83 and 152 while UCLA is 4:0 and has beaten teams with the following RPI rankings: 24, 54, 309 and 335 and has faced teams with a SOS of 47, 58, 211, 242. UCLA's RPI is 15 and its SOS is 12 while UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 8. I am not sure if UConn's superior schedule will help them this early in the season and for that reason I will go with: ADVANTAGE - UCLA

COACHING

I think UCLA has a great coaching staff but, UConn's coaching staff is much more seasoned and experienced. Cori Close is in her 12th season with UCLA; she is 233 - 124, Shannon LaBeauf is in her 12 season and handles most of the recruiting. Geno, Chris, Jamelle, and Tonya bring an abundance of experience with both Jamelle and Tonya having been head coaches of Division I basketball teams. The addition of Ben Kantor makes this probably the best coaching staff in the country. This was an easy call to make: ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

Neutral court...no advantage there...UConn's number three player on the IR, Strength of Schedule, and RPI at this stage of the season is not really a factor. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

SCORE

UCONN - 83
UCLA - 78

 

[Gordo]

@cferraro04 - You do such a great job with your analysis and commentary. I don't always agree with everything, but I truly appreciate the complete mind stimulation. So thanks again.

​

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks, Gordo...I agree it certainly engages the mind...and the basketball gods don't always agree with me either. I think it is impossible to predict how things are going to go...it is more of an exercise to see how many things can I get right. Better yet...can I get more right than wrong? lol Additionally, man-to-man match-up scenarios go out the window if the Coach decides to play zone...so, it becomes a matching up of individual game stats in an effort to figure out who comes out on top. One thing I think we can count on for this one...is that it will be fast-paced, the UCLA guards will look to push the ball...they will make UConn pay for their half-court mistakes. I really hope UConn doesn't get into foul trouble in this one.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, @cferraro04. Always a good read.

I remember when we last played UCLA, two years ago right after Paige went down. We were totally discombobulated but somehow Evina held everyone together and pulled out a win. But Charisma Osborne almost stole it from us with a scoring burst in final minute.

Osborne is the key, in my book, and Jaquez. These are explosive players. We might contain everyone else and still lose because of their heroics.

On our side, Paige is the key of course. But KK Ashlynn and Qadence might be the unexpected magic.

I really do not know what to expect.

 

[Cuango]

I think this game will turn on whether we can bring the same defensive intensity we brought to the NC State game. I have a feeling this may be the game that Caroline breaks out. Betts is a concern but if Geno can come up with some kind of effective strategy to keep her from going off, I think we will win this game handily.
I’d certainly feel better with Azzi and Yanna available but I think we can get it done anyway. I must say, it’s very nice to go into games with a realistic expectation that our bench can actually affect the game in a positive way. Here’s hoping for a big win on Friday!

 

[Gordo]

Thanks again, @cferraro04. Always a good read.

I remember when we last played UCLA, two years ago right after Paige went down. We were totally discombobulated but somehow Evina held everyone together and pulled out a win. But Charisma Osborne almost stole it from us with a scoring burst in final minute.

Osborne is the key, in my book, and Jaquez. These are explosive players. We might contain everyone else and still lose because of their heroics.

On our side, Paige is the key of course. But KK Ashlynn and Qadence might be the unexpected magic.

I really do not know what to expect.

Yes, Ducharme played 32 minutes, scored 14 points, had 2 rebounds and 2 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocked shots, 1 turnover and 3 fouls and was the spark we needed to win 71-61. So, I'm rooting with @Cuango that Caroline finally breaks out in this game.

 

[mattlow710]

uconn 88- ucla 66

 

[mordecai]

Thank you for the game and player by player analysis..
For me the most interesting aspect of this game will be the Freshmen and how they respond..
They have outside of Edwards & Beuckers been the energizing force in the last several games..

 

[oldhusky]

I think Geno needs to put Ice on Betts for much of the game to give Aaliyah some relief and keep her out of foul trouble. Is she ready for that? Who knows, but these are the kind of match-ups where we need production from more bigs. We don't have time to bring her along slowly.

If this was a game you were likely to win without Azzi, and avoiding using another big, then maybe you go conservative with the more experienced known quantities. but this is a game we need to win, not avoid losing.

In a similar vein Geno might need to make a bold in game move regarding Caroline. If it looks like we are getting this year's or last year's version of Caroline early he could give her a quick hook depending on what was most needed. It could be any of the three freshmen. KK by the way might be a good defensive match-up against Jones.

We don't want to have to rely on freshmen when they might be rushed into their role, but with Azzi, Ayanna and Jana unavailable we don't have another big option beyond Ice and we don't know what we have or will have with Caroline. In the former case, Ice has not yet earned big minutes but we are small and facing a very good big. In Caroline's case if she is good no problem, but so far she hasn't been and the other freshmen have earned a chance based on their play. Hoping for the best but I think Caroline should be on a pretty short leash so to speak.

 

[Zarathustra]

Something from everyone... are you listening Huskie bench? Plus, something from
Azzi, Yanna, and Caroline.... Is that asking too much?? The Shadow Knows!!

 

[Jmsdawg]

My take, UConn wins if Paige has a really good game, like the MD game this season. UCLA wins if they control Paige and one of the guards has a good game. I am not a betting man but if I were my money would be on Paige. I was concerned Paige would not return to her freshmen days but I an convinced Paige is back!

 

[LwrcasefaN]

Comes down to rebounding for me. I don't expect a lot of freshmen to play as much as they have. KK for some ball pressure and Ice to stretch heir defense out a bit. I don't expect either team to hit 75 in points.

 

[maple]

If UConn plays like how they did in the Maryland game (including Paige being Paige), I’d say they have a good shot at the W.

Thanks for the write up as always.

 

[jumpstart]

When it comes to Betts vs Edwards I would say advantage UCONN. Edwards has played high level centers in the past and her bulk and strength will more than make up for the height advantage that Betts has.

 

[hard2please]

without azzi, im afraid to say we are not a championship caliber team

 

[Tonyc]

CFERRARO another good thread. I gotta ask how long does it take you to compile all those stats and do your research? Great Job and thanks.

A couple of big questions. Will Azzi be on the court and will Caroline be healthy enough to count on? If so we could go off and score alot of points. I think we all know that and based on the past few weeks that may be wishful thinking.

In a game like this we need somebody(s) to step up. With a 5'2 point guard on her I would expect Nika to be able to hit some shots. That would make a huge difference. Another point UCLA has some bigs and we need to use our quickness on offense to get them in foul trouble and our defense to force them to make turnovers. I have another thread talking about more scorers. This is a game where our talented team will have to show up and score without hesitation. In games like this somebody steps up to make a difference. UCLA had a tuff time against Princeton and UCLA had a height advantage. I think Geno will use their height advantage against them. This game is on a neutral court and UConns defense I believe will make the difference. Still we will need others to score and a more balanced scoring attack will make us all relax.

 

[Geew1992]

Something from everyone... are you listening Husky bench? Plus, something from
Azzi, Yanna, and Caroline.... Is that asking too much?? The Shadow Knows!!

Yes it is asking too much. Don’t see either Azzi or yanna playing

 

[Blacketh’D]

Outside of their bench having the advantage, I have to agree with the analysis for this game. I think rebounding will still be a problem for this game and staying out of foul trouble will be key. If players hit shots early and confidence in the offense is good then I think we can come out on top. I’m sure the defense will be there but it will be a test. Excited to watch!

 

[Rowdy831]

I would expect UConn to play a smaller rotation and that would mean very little time for the Freshmen with the exception of KK. I wouldn't be surprised if CD is on the bench to begin the game and KK is on the floor since UCLA has three guards that are pretty quick but not tall all. Betts hasn't really been up against a person who can push her around and that will be the case this weekend so expect AE to hold her own with her. AE can't afford to get ANY offensive fouls in this game, she will need all of them for defense.

To win UConn will have to shoot like they are capable of shooting and continue to play tough defense. Geno thinks they are a good 3 point team but stat over the past few years would argue they aren't any better than average. I do believe they are exceptional shooters when they are shooting their shots. For Azzi and Paige they are unstoppable when they shoot on the move but so far the offense has resulted in a lot of spot up 3s which isn't their super power. Paige, KK and Nika have to attack the basket in the half court and push the ball to make Betts run on every possession.

If they execute I would expect UConn to have more tools to win than UCLA but I would expect a close game.

 

[and one]

What I'd like to see in this game and the next one is to see the games live. That probably won't happen. Beyond that I think to get a win against UCLA we'll need to shoot really well, including 3s, to offset the scoring and rebounding advantage UCLA will have down low.

 

[Bone Dog]

I would expect UConn to play a smaller rotation and that would mean very little time for the Freshmen with the exception of KK. I wouldn't be surprised if CD is on the bench to begin the game and KK is on the floor since UCLA has three guards that are pretty quick but not tall all. Betts hasn't really been up against a person who can push her around and that will be the case this weekend so expect AE to hold her own with her. AE can't afford to get ANY offensive fouls in this game, she will need all of them for defense.

To win UConn will have to shoot like they are capable of shooting and continue to play tough defense. Geno thinks they are a good 3 point team but stat over the past few years would argue they aren't any better than average. I do believe they are exceptional shooters when they are shooting their shots. For Azzi and Paige they are unstoppable when they shoot on the move but so far the offense has resulted in a lot of spot up 3s which isn't their super power. Paige, KK and Nika have to attack the basket in the half court and push the ball to make Betts run on every possession.

If they execute I would expect UConn to have more tools to win than UCLA but I would expect a close game.

Well said, @Rowdy831. I can’t really add anything to what you’ve got here.

 

[Gordo]

In a similar vein Geno might need to make a bold in game move regarding Caroline. If it looks like we are getting this year's or last year's version of Caroline early he could give her a quick hook depending on what was most needed. It could be any of the three freshmen. KK by the way might be a good defensive match-up against Jones.

We don't want to have to rely on freshmen when they might be rushed into their role, but with Azzi, Ayanna and Jana unavailable we don't have another big option beyond Ice and we don't know what we have or will have with Caroline. In the former case, Ice has not yet earned big minutes but we are small and facing a very good big. In Caroline's case if she is good no problem, but so far she hasn't been and the other freshmen have earned a chance based on their play. Hoping for the best but I think Caroline should be on a pretty short leash so to speak.

Have you not been watching the games this season??? Geno has been making "bold in game" decisions regarding Caroline. If Geno, a considerable better judge of his talent than you, can find reason to play her about 13 minutes per game perhaps you should trust his judgment. If and when Caroline does break out, there isn't a freshman on this team than can hold a candle to her.

 

[Centerstream]

Based upon the current rankings, we are the underdogs, so use this as motivation. Underdogs don't usually feel as much pressure and play a little looser, so we could use this and just play Huskie bball.