Evan Miyakawa: Likelihood to Advance in the NCAAT graph

[JustbrewitMan]

Doomed!

 

[WhereistheDove?]

 

[HuskyHawk]

None of this surprises me except maybe Auburn.

 

[UCann]

We're almost off the chart! Doomed! I wonder how much the Marquette beatdown affected this.

 

[Edward Sargent]

None of this surprises me except maybe Auburn.

Auburn is a surprise. Broome's a nice player but they don't have a point and the guy with the most 3pt attempts by far is shooting at a 31% clip

 

[Stinger92860]

None of this surprises me except maybe Auburn.

Auburn? I thought that was Arizona.

 

[Tex-Lager93]

Would like to see Last Year…were we there?

 

[Kolumbo]

Auburn? I thought that was Arizona.

They are both in the green.

There's a solid group in the middle of the graph which I imagine will each win a couple of games, but then I was like, what the H is sparty doing there? UConn was exactly where I expected.

As someone else asked, what exactly is the X axis

 

[Kolumbo]

I guess the X Axis is Evan's Relative Rating

Introducing "Relative Ratings" and an all-new Matchup Preview at EvanMiya.com

A groundbreaking new team strength metric and a whole suite of new tools

blog.evanmiya.com

 

[connVA]

None of this surprises me except maybe Auburn.

That and Sparty having basically the same prospects as even Kolek-less Marquette

 

[QDOG5]

Does he put out another chart after the conference tourneys?
Can we find his final chart for last season?

 

[auror]

Does he put out another chart after the conference tourneys?
Can we find his final chart for last season?

This is a new rating system from him, so he didn't publish any similar chart last year. Sounds like he's going to go back retroactively and show the data on the Monday after Selection Sunday, though. It must be pretty predictive if he's essentially making a marketing push out of it.

Last year his normal ratings were quite high on us, just like KenPom et al were.

 

[connVA]

He’s penalizing Houston for underperforming against elite teams but not Duke? UH will win at least a share of the strongest conference in the country but the Murderers’ Row of Clemson, Wake, and UVA are now more elite I guess?

 

[bendm]

None of this surprises me except maybe Auburn.

Auburn has been a kenpom darling all year but I don’t see it. Currently 6th but they only have 2 good wins against Bama and South Carolina and they aren’t great wins

 

[auror]

He’s penalizing Houston for underperforming against elite teams but not Duke? UH will win at least a share of the strongest conference in the country but the Murderers’ Row of Clemson, Wake, and UVA are now more elite I guess?

It's about their performance in games against elite teams, not judging how elite their wins are.

 

[huskyfan224]

I can’t stand the Little10, but Sparty has the talent. For whatever reason they’ve struggled this season, but they’ve got Izzo and would be a very tough out in the tournament. They’ve got the size, athleticism, and guards to do damage. They’d be my pick out of that conference to go on a run…I’ll believe Purdue when I see it

 

[YearoftheHusky]

I can’t stand the Little10, but Sparty has the talent. For whatever reason they’ve struggled this season, but they’ve got Izzo and would be a very tough out in the tournament. They’ve got the size, athleticism, and guards to do damage. They’d be my pick out of that conference to go on a run…I’ll believe Purdue when I see it

Agreed. I keep seeing them in our 8/9 and game I don’t really want any part of them that soon in the tourney.

 

[Tex-Lager93]

I did go back and listen to a podcast he did prior to the 2023 tourney - and he leaned heavily into UConn, citing either injuries or turmoil (i.e. Brandon Miller) for other teams as distractions. Interesting.