Perhaps the brightest spotlight in college basketball will fall on
UConn over the next few weeks, as the Huskies look to defend last season's championship. This creates a huge platform for their prospects, including projected first-rounders
Donovan Clingan and
Stephon Castle, to leave a lasting final impression. Some inconsistent play of late, highlighted in a blowout win over Marquette and a 19-point road loss at Creighton, has shed some light on where things stand with their talented roster.
It's been an up-and-down season for Clingan (ranked No. 11 in our top 100), who hasn't set college basketball on fire in his sophomore season but has put together a solid campaign after dealing with a foot injury early in the season. The 7-foot-2 center is capable of impacting games considerably with his size and has proved efficient around the rim, making 65.9% of his 2s this season and averaging four blocks per 40. Expecting a full
Zach Edey-like breakout from Clingan would be inaccurate, but the intrinsic qualities Clingan possesses -- certainly in more of a throwback sense at center -- will always hold intrigue.
There are factors at play in the evaluation that might be out of Clingan's control: He's a fluid athlete for someone his size but still isn't particularly quick getting off the floor or moving his feet to recover and change directions in coverage. His rebounding numbers have been underwhelming due to the fact that he can be slow getting to 50-50 balls outside his area. He has exhibited some potential to stretch the floor in warmups, but he's not doing that yet, and his poor free throw shooting (55.9%) won't help his statistical case there. There's potentially a good bit of growth ahead for Clingan offensively due to his touch and footwork, but whether a big his size can function at a high level for extended minutes is salient. While Edey -- a common point of comparison -- can rely on his offensive dominance over multiple seasons to make a unique case for himself, Clingan isn't at that level as a scorer and it's likely not realistic to expect that.
I think this will ultimately become less a statistical case and more of an eye-test question for evaluators -- teams will be closely assessing Clingan's mobility and impact on the run of play in March as they attempt to realistically project his NBA impact during a season where he has underperformed at times. There's also a bit of concern about his injury track record at his size. The late lottery isn't out of the question, but much of this will ultimately come down to fit and need -- good organizations typically don't just draft a 7-2 center without a plan to optimize him.
Castle, UConn's other projected first-round pick (15th on our Big Board), is staring down a similar range of outcomes with his production ticking up in conference play but a fair number of questions surrounding his NBA readiness. There is quite a bit to like about him on the defensive end, where he has excellent size, balance and lateral quickness that makes him switchable and also tough for smaller guards to score on. His awareness in rotations guarding away from the ball can be a step slow, but he has been able to make positive contributions in the flow of the game, making hustle plays and applying pressure.
What has made Castle a challenging eval for teams are the real questions about how much offensive game he truly supplies and what that means for his positional fit. Castle has never been an especially intuitive creator with the ball, which has manifested in his role at UConn as more of a connective, auxiliary scorer. But his decision-making can be a tad slow, he often goes into the paint without much of a plan, and he has demonstrated a proclivity for taking difficult shots -- things that don't bode well for his ability to be an offensive creator. He projects most safely as an off-ball complementary piece, which places quite a bit of stress on his growth as a shooter, and he has made just 30% of his 3-point attempts thus far.
There are certainly flashes of talent with Castle, and in a draft like this he presents an interesting upside play, but teams will want to see the game slow down for him in March, when he'll be thrust onto the big stage. While he has stepped into a meaningful role, he still looks inexperienced a lot of the time, and the Huskies don't have a ton of other options. Castle can make or break a March run, and the NBA will be watching carefully.
Another fascinating development has been the emergence of Rutgers transfer
Cam Spencer as UConn's most consistent and arguably best player. In the midst of a scorching campaign from 3 (44% on six attempts per game), Spencer has been one of the most impactful transfers in college basketball and has put himself in the conversation as someone teams must consider as a potential shooting specialist despite his turning 24 before the draft. Spencer doesn't pass the eye test physically or athletically at 6-4, but he does a few very bankable things that tend to earn players opportunities: He's a natural shooter, he competes all the time and he can also pass the ball sneakily well. He might have to go through the undrafted free agent market, but he could certainly be a quality two-way contract player with room for more.
Sophomore forward
Alex Karaban has seen his production dip of late but remains an invaluable piece of UConn's team. His game comes with enough quirks that he'll be an acquired taste for some -- he's a below-average athlete by NBA standards, has unorthodox crossbody shooting mechanics and doesn't create much for himself or others -- but it's easy to watch a UConn game and see the steadying effect he provides. Karaban is a smart passer, capable shooter, willing rebounder and active defender, and his mature, poised style of play covers for much of what he lacks at the college level. His ability to screen, position himself without the ball and make quick reads can be a huge driver for the Huskies when their offense stagnates.
Some teams love what he brings to the table as a role player, but he's also not the highest-ceiling prospect due to his limitations, which gives him an outside shot at the late first round and a wide range overall. Karaban's box-score contributions haven't been as strong against good competition this season, making this final stretch of the season immensely important for his chances of securing guaranteed money in the spring. --
Jeremy Woo
www.espn.com
