You could be right but there are so many layers of wishful thinking / homerism in your post that I don't even know where to start the debate. I can't say I was any different after South Carolina won the title the year before. I was on cloud 9 thinking that the loss of Cardoso wasn't going to be that big of an impact because so-and-so was going to take their game to new heights.
Most of my homerisms were tongue in cheek. But good catch. Still, I do think the two situations were a little different. Dawn was not able to find any viable replacement for Kamila. She worked very hard to find replacement bigs — Maryam Adhel Sakima — and none were even remotely comparable. This really began with the departure of Aliyah the previous year. Kamila was her replacement, and a damn good one. And I think this problem has yet to be resolved. An analogous situation for UConn was the departure of Stewie. The team was really good in the next couple years, but never quite good enough. They played above their heads and it was fun to watch. But it wasn’t finally a surprise that they could be beaten in the end.
The situation with the departure of Paige is not exactly like the loss of Kamila nor that of Stewie. We’re basically talking about intangibles I think, not simple stats. Both Paige and Kamila, just by their very presence on the court, allowed their teammates to play above their heads. Aliyah had had a similar effect, and her departure would have been devastating if Dawn hadn’t landed Kamila the previous year. But in Paige’s case, as in Aliyah’s, the replacement was already present, namely Sarah and (bonus) Azzi.
Yes, it might be true that Azzi and Sarah aren’t quite up to Paige’s level. But then neither was Kamila up to Aliyah’s level. This is what leads me to think that UConn is likely to weather the departure of a GOAT better than SC was able to weather the departure of Kamila.
And I think there are two other factors in UConn’s favor in this comparison. First, Geno has effectively reloaded the supporting cast better than Dawn did by acquiring a known talent in Serah, thus shoring up a weak spot in his roster, as well in improving the guard depth with Kayleigh, Blanca and the return of Morgan. The latter two are really unknown factors so far. But Geno doesn’t need them to be stars just yet.
Second, Geno is better than Dawn in coaching guards, though Dawn is better at coaching posts. There’s some irony in this, to be sure. But what this means is that Geno was in a better position to replace Paige, given the guards he already had, than Dawn was to replace Kamila. Great post players are just a lot harder to find than great guards. This fact played to his strength.
And don’t get me wrong. I think Dawn and Geno are the two best coaches in D1 WBB right now, and by a wide margin. But this doesn’t mean they don’t have strengths and weaknesses.
It’s also unfortunate that Ashlyn is stepping back from the team temporarily (I hope) because that leaves a significant hole in the roster at post. It’s not that she’s a great scorer (she isn’t) but that she’s a tremendous athletic presence in the paint. Pair her with Joyce and you have one of the most intimidating front courts in D1. Plus it frees up Chloe to focus on her scoring opportunities which is by far her strong suit. Without her, Chloe is forced to muscle up in the paint against bigger stronger players. Unless, of course, one of the new kids really steps up. But only a Homer would count on this.
