Dana O'Neil on UConn post season chances

[Gringo]

the NBA drafts mostly on potential. The NBA focuses on physical measurables such as height, wing span, vertical leap etc. Talent has a lot to do with actual basketball skills and ability to execute those basketball skills. Some of the most talented basketball players in the world don't play in the NBA because they are 2-3 inches too short. An argument can be made that Kemba would carry the team and would outplay bazz, but the supporting cast around Napier is better than kembas supporting cast. if you don't think so than I suggest you rewatch the entire 2011 season. The offense was TERRIBLE besides kemba. that's why he averaged almost 25 per game. UConn has four players in Bazz, boat, Kromah and Daniels that can legitimately create their own offense on a consistent basis. the 2014 team is also a great 3 point shooting team. Maybe the 2011 team is a better defensively and rebounding, but 2014 blows 2011 out of the water defensively.

I think part of it depends on when you compare the team as well. In general we think of the 2011 team at the end of the season when they really turned it on. That team at the end had a really strong second option on offense in Lamb. If you remember the following season Lamb was a unanimous preseason AP All-American based off how well he played at the end of 2011. Their interior post play also improved as the season progressed. I'm hoping this '14 version continues to improve and gives us something to remember like the '11 team did. I'm happy we are comparing them to a National Champ.

 

[Sportsman5]

Kemba was at his best when bazz was running the point, freshman bazz d was sickening he would stay on his man and not let him breath what was bazz nickname ( reach around something)? because he was steadily strip the ball of whoever he was guarding unlike today.. roscoe played better d and rebounded better then anyone one in our team oriakhi would out muscle our bigs.. we all have our opinions

bazz is better defensively today than he was as a freshman. The difference is as a freshman he took more risks therefore made more open court steals, but committed a LOT of bad fouls going for steals and reaching in. I also think you are not taking into account the rule change this year. Bazz could be much more aggressive his freshman year than he can this year. I think freshman bazz would foul out in 20 minutes with the new rules this year. Scoe would have also struggled his freshman year with the new rules. He was just big enough and quick enough to play most 3 and 4s, but that would become much tougher with the impeding progress rules and two hands on an offensive player being an automatic foul. I think he still would have been a solid defender, but it would have hurt him a lot. I think AO and Scoe would outplay our bigs this year by a little bit, but the rest of the 2014 team is significantly better than the rest of the 2011 team. This goes back to my original point. If you focus on how the 2011 team played the final 9 games and take the average of how the 2014 team has played, than of course you take the 2011 team. That team was on an absolute role and beat a ton of ranked teams in a row over that stretch. It's great that they happened to play well and get lucky at just the right time, but you can't compare how 2011 played at their best vs how 2014 has played on average. If 2014 is playing at their best they are hitting almost every 3, getting tons of fast break points, closing out every shot by the opponent, and blocking tons of shots inside. If this 2014 team played in past seasons without the new rules it would still get a lot of fast break points and tons of 3s, so the offense wouldn't be hurt very much, but they would be much more effective defensively because teams would struggle to drive on them.

 

[tzznandrew]

If you're factoring in the new rules, wouldn't Kemba average like 20 foul shots a game. He got killed in BE play, often with no fouls called. None of our guys now could stay in front of him.

 

[Sportsman5]

I think part of it depends on when you compare the team as well. In general we think of the 2011 team at the end of the season when they really turned it on. That team at the end had a really strong second option on offense in Lamb. If you remember the following season Lamb was a unanimous preseason AP All-American based off how well he played at the end of 2011. Their interior post play also improved as the season progressed. I'm hoping this '14 version continues to improve and gives us something to remember like the '11 team did. I'm happy we are comparing them to a National Champ.

I agree that the 2011 team played great at the end of the season, but that had as much to do with luck and getting hot at the right time as it did with the actual progression of the team. If they played 10 more games that season they could have easily lost 3 or 4 of them. Lamb was great the next year mostly because he gained a lot of muscle in the off season and improved his driving ability on offense. We knew Lamb could make 3s and get transition point, but everyone was getting on him because he couldnt create his own offense due to being skinny and weak. He got basically all of his points from jump shots and fast breaks.

 

[Sportsman5]

If you're factoring in the new rules, wouldn't Kemba average like 20 foul shots a game. He got killed in BE play, often with no fouls called. None of our guys now could stay in front of him.

He would be great no doubt, but he was the only one who could consistently create his own offense, while 2014 has a bunch of veterans who can do that.

 

[Waquoit]

I disagree. 2011 team likely has four eventual draft picks: Kemba, Lamb, Napier, and Roscoe.

Oriakhi was drafted by the Suns.

 

[PAHusky]

This will be an interesting thread to revisit in April.

That said, both team's success was predicated on the fact that we had the best player on the court. 2011 has the edge in rebounding and sixth man, 2014 has the edge in the number of playmakers outside of pg and depth off of the bench. They're not identical teams but they're fairly comparable.

At the end of the day you have to ask yourself - who are you taking between senior bazz and junior kemba?

Also interesting to think about that if they played one another today, freshman bazz would likely guard senior bazz for long stretches. By default I think senior Bazz would guard Kemba. As much as I like LK defensively (though I think Giffey's defensive prowess, especially this year, has been way underrated because LK came out of nowhere) there's no chance he can stay in front of kemba.

 

[BlueMAB]

I think the 2014 team is better and deeper. Lamb v Kromah is a toss up. Giffey is better now. Daniels is better than Roscoe. Brimah/Nolan are as good or better than Oriakhi. Kemba is better than Bazz but not by a huge margin. The freshman Olander was probably better than the senior Olander, which defies logic. Boatright as a Junior is better than Shabazz as a freshman. Play 10 times, Kemba wills out 6 wins. The only time that 2011 team was unbeatable was in a tournament. They struggled at times in the regular season.

It would be a great game. This 2014 against that same 2011 field in the NCAAT would probably win the championship too. That team was offensively challenged after Kemba, this team isn't.

I think O'Neill is overlooking the supporting cast. I would like our opponents to, but they watch film and they know better.

 

[tzznandrew]

I think the 2014 team is better and deeper. Lamb v Kromah is a toss up. Giffey is better now. Daniels is better than Roscoe. Brimah/Nolan are as good or better than Oriakhi. Kemba is better than Bazz but not by a huge margin. The freshman Olander was probably better than the senior Olander, which defies logic. Boatright as a Junior is better than Shabazz as a freshman. Play 10 times, Kemba wills out 6 wins. The only time that 2011 team was unbeatable was in a tournament. They struggled at times in the regular season.

It would be a great game. This 2014 against that same 2011 field in the NCAAT would probably win the championship too. That team was offensively challenged after Kemba, this team isn't.

I think O'Neill is overlooking the supporting cast. I would like our opponents to, but they watch film and they know better.

Brimah and Nolan average a combined 8 and 5. AO averaged 9.6 and 8.7. He is clearly a better player than them. And Jeremy Lamb started getting consistent minutes mid-January. Once that happened, he averaged 13.5 and 4.5. So, I'm just going to say that Lamb vs. Kromah is not a toss up.

And that they were not offensively challenged--at least not any moreso than this team. I mean, according to Pomeroy, that was the 18th most efficient offense through the course of the season in 2011. This years edition, thus far, is only the 31st.

I'm also not sure this team has the defense to stop Kawli Leonard or Derrick Williams. That was Roscoe. His interior defense was unreal.

 

[Waquoit]

I think the 2014 team is better and deeper. Lamb v Kromah is a toss up.

Not sure which sentence is less accurate.

 

[tzznandrew]

Not sure which sentence is less accurate.

People are really underrating that 2011 team. That team was 9-8 against the RPI Top 50 going into the BET. They had 4 Top 25 RPI wins then (ended with 11--Pitt, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, San Diego St., Arizona, UK to end the year), and all their losses, except to Marquette in OT (a sweet 16 team) were to RPI Top 25 teams.

This years team is 3-4 vs. the RPI top 50. If they win out, and beat Cincy and Louisville in the AAC tournament, they would end up with 5 Top 50 RPI wins, and 3 Top 25 (maybe 5, if Louisville climbs back up).

 

[arnie3]

Dana O'Neil is a bitter woman who unraveled when her beloved Penn State could no longer were white. Somehow this was channeled into her deranged mind against UConn whom she believed got away with murder and a National Championship in 2011. She's a sick person who really needs a good therapist.

 

[Gringo]

Dana O'Neil is a bitter woman who unraveled when her beloved Penn State could no longer were white. Somehow this was channeled into her deranged mind against UConn whom she believed got away with murder and a National Championship in 2011. She's a sick person who really needs a good therapist.

So her saying UConn would win the rest of their regular season games and the AAC tourny is being "against UConn?" The point we are arguing is whether this years team is as deep as the 2011 team. I agree with her that it's not. Others believe it is deeper. I don't think her view is so crazy it makes her "against UConn." I wouldn't call her "deranged" and don't think she has anything against UConn.

 

[BlueMAB]

Brimah and Nolan average a combined 8 and 5. AO averaged 9.6 and 8.7. He is clearly a better player than them. And Jeremy Lamb started getting consistent minutes mid-January. Once that happened, he averaged 13.5 and 4.5. So, I'm just going to say that Lamb vs. Kromah is not a toss up.

And that they were not offensively challenged--at least not any moreso than this team. I mean, according to Pomeroy, that was the 18th most efficient offense through the course of the season in 2011. This years edition, thus far, is only the 31st.

I'm also not sure this team has the defense to stop Kawli Leonard or Derrick Williams. That was Roscoe. His interior defense was unreal.

Nolan/Brimah combine for 8.1 points, and 5.3 rebounds. Oriakhi got 1.6 blocks per game, Nolan and Brimah combine for 3.1. The PPG is close. He's a better rebounder, Brimah a far better shot blocker. The two combine for the same minutes he played. You can argue on his behalf, he isn't "clearly" a better player. He was a better rebounder, but not a better defender, and the scoring is very close.

Numbers don't tell the whole story. But what I was saying is that head to head it's a toss up for Kromah/Lamb. If there's someone on our team who could keep Lamb to 8-10 it's Kromah. He has the size and ability to play Lamb. Lamb was the number two option because he had to be. Kromah is the number 3 or 4 option because we have Bazz, Daniels, and Boatright who can all create their own shot. Kromah can too, and has shown the ability to take over when needed. Kromah could easily average 13 if Daniels and Boatright didn't deserve the shots they get. You can't just look at a stat sheet and make a decision. All things are not equal, they aren't playing on the same team against the same teams.

Again, numbers don't tell the whole story, but this year's team averages more points per game than 2011.

This year's top 6 scorers are
18, 13.2, 12.4, 7.9 and 7.4, and 5.5

2011
23.5, 11.1, 9.6, 7.8, 6.3 and 5.6

The scoring is more balanced this year. I don't care about the offensive efficiency stat, I'm guessing that's just how good Kemba was. We have more options on offense this year than 2011, that's obvious.

Not sure which sentence is less accurate.

Stunning analysis, thank you for your contribution. I suppose you missed where I said the 2011 team would win 6 out of 10 because of Kemba. Admittedly it was worded poorly, I meant to say the 2014 team has more options offensively and is more balanced. "Better"? Probably not, but this team could win that 2011 tournament, it was a relatively weak field.

 

[BlueMAB]

People are really underrating that 2011 team. That team was 9-8 against the RPI Top 50 going into the BET. They had 4 Top 25 RPI wins then (ended with 11--Pitt, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, San Diego St., Arizona, UK to end the year), and all their losses, except to Marquette in OT (a sweet 16 team) were to RPI Top 25 teams.

This years team is 3-4 vs. the RPI top 50. If they win out, and beat Cincy and Louisville in the AAC tournament, they would end up with 5 Top 50 RPI wins, and 3 Top 25 (maybe 5, if Louisville climbs back up).

That "team" was incredible because Kemba was incredible. I'm not devaluing that entire team, I'm putting most of the success for that team on Kemba. You can point to the team achievements, but you can't do so without acknowledging Kemba was the best player in the country. As good as Shabazz is, it won't be a travesty if he doesn't win POY (unless he does something to mimic what Kemba did). Kemba's numbers went down in the tourney because teams were really focusing on him, but despite that he still averaged 5+ more points per game than Bazz. Cause he had to, not cause Bazz couldn't drop 23 a game.

Take away the best player from 2011 and the best player from 2014 and who wins the game? I think 2014 does, and while a reasonable person can disagree, I don't think it's a crazy opinion. The numbers are not overwhelmingly onesided.

 

[superjohn]

That "team" was incredible because Kemba was incredible. I'm not devaluing that entire team, I'm putting most of the success for that team on Kemba. You can point to the team achievements, but you can't do so without acknowledging Kemba was the best player in the country. As good as Shabazz is, it won't be a travesty if he doesn't win POY (unless he does something to mimic what Kemba did). Kemba's numbers went down in the tourney because teams were really focusing on him, but despite that he still averaged 5+ more points per game than Bazz. Cause he had to, not cause Bazz couldn't drop 23 a game.

Take away the best player from 2011 and the best player from 2014 and who wins the game? I think 2014 does, and while a reasonable person can disagree, I don't think it's a crazy opinion. The numbers are not overwhelmingly onesided.

I completely agree, you take the best player off of 2011 and the best player off of 2014 and '14 wins, the team this year just has more shot makers. Without Kemba on the floor the 2011 team was completely lost on offense, don't think I've ever seen a College player who was that important to his team.

 

[tzznandrew]

Take away the best player from 2011 and the best player from 2014 and who wins the game? I think 2014 does, and while a reasonable person can disagree, I don't think it's a crazy opinion. The numbers are not overwhelmingly onesided.

Even if that statement were true (and I tend to agree with you), it's irrelevant. 2011 was the better team largely because teams don't get to eliminate the opposing teams best player.

On to your earlier point about there being more balance. Part of that is that this has played a much easier schedule. They average 76 ppg, compared to 72 in 2011. But, remember that despite the numbers looking better this year, that team played an absurdly difficult schedule. They played 12 RPI Top 25 games, and 17 RPI top 50 games...all before the BET. Those PPGs and efficiency numbers come when you add 7 more RPI Top 25 teams, and 1 more RPI top 50. This team has played 2 and 7 respectively. How do those numbers look going against a tougher schedule? I don't know, but according to Pomeroy, the 2011 team was more efficient relative to teams in 2011 than 2014 is to its peers.

 

[BlueMAB]

Even if that statement were true (and I tend to agree with you), it's irrelevant. 2011 was the better team largely because teams don't get to eliminate the opposing teams best player.

I think this is why you're missing my point. (or disagreeing with it)

Dana O'Neill is basically saying we can't make a deep run unless Shabazz turns into Kemba, and I don't agree with that. We need him to be very good, we don't need him to be the best player in the country every night because we have more options.

If you tend to agree with that sentiment, then you also disagree with O'Neill, you agree with me, and the confusion is because I did a terrible job of explaining it.

2014 isn't "better" than 2011, but I believe they are deeper, and the points distribution backs that up.

 

[bobbygt]

I think the 2014 team is better and deeper. Lamb v Kromah is a toss up.

One thing you really need to look at when discussing Lamb, and what separates him from Kromah (by a fairly large margin at this point) was how amazing he was in really, really big moments.

I had to go back and check the play by play for reference, but they supported my memory of him. Take a look at what he did in all of these elimination games:

Big East Semifinal vs Syracuse- Two minutes to go and the game tied at 70, he hits a jumper to make it 72-70. After Joseph hits 1 of 2 free throws to make it 72-71, Lamb makes another jumper with 26 seconds left to push it to 74-71. Kemba seals it at the line after Jardine misses a 3.

Big East Final vs Louisville- Lamb's layup with 30 seconds to go puts Uconn ahead for good after UL took the lead.

Sweet 16 vs SDSU- You can watch it here

Elite 8 vs Arizona- Uconn was leading the entire 2nd half and after they pushed it to 9, Arizona went on a 14-2 run to take a 3 point lead, seemingly taking control of the game with about 6 minutes to go and had the crowd behind them. Lamb then silences the crowd with two gorgeous baseline jumpers for Uconn to regain the lead, of which they never (phew) gave up again.

He also had some huge plays against Butler in the NC game.

It's not really fair to Kromah to compare him to Lamb yet, since the season is still ongoing and he's never had the opportunities that Lamb did, but that's the whole thing with 'greatness.' Lamb was in those situations and he was great in them.

We know what Shabazz can do now, but the 2011 team had two guys who were going to make clutch shots when 'winning time' arrived.

 

[BlueMAB]

One thing you really need to look at when discussing Lamb, and what separates him from Kromah (by a fairly large margin at this point) was how amazing he was in really, really big moments.

I had to go back and check the play by play for reference, but they supported my memory of him. Take a look at what he did in all of these elimination games:

Big East Semifinal vs Syracuse- Two minutes to go and the game tied at 70, he hits a jumper to make it 72-70. After Joseph hits 1 of 2 free throws to make it 72-71, Lamb makes another jumper with 26 seconds left to push it to 74-71. Kemba seals it at the line after Jardine misses a 3.

Big East Final vs Louisville- Lamb's layup with 30 seconds to go puts Uconn ahead for good after UL took the lead.

Sweet 16 vs SDSU- You can watch it here

Elite 8 vs Arizona- Uconn was leading the entire 2nd half and after they pushed it to 9, Arizona went on a 14-2 run to take a 3 point lead, seemingly taking control of the game with about 6 minutes to go and had the crowd behind them. Lamb then silences the crowd with two gorgeous baseline jumpers for Uconn to regain the lead, of which they never (phew) gave up again.

He also had some huge plays against Butler in the NC game.

It's not really fair to Kromah to compare him to Lamb yet, since the season is still ongoing and he's never had the opportunities that Lamb did, but that's the whole thing with 'greatness.' Lamb was in those situations and he was great in them.

We know what Shabazz can do now, but the 2011 team had two guys who were going to make clutch shots when 'winning time' arrived.

I've tried to clarify that comment, you can read my other posts, but I'm not going to rehash them. I wasn't knocking Lamb, without his improvement we wouldn't have won the championship.

 

[Rico444]

2014 UConn would go zone and 2011's offense would go stagnant. But 2011 UConn would have Jim Calhoun on the sidelines, so my guess is they would find a way to win.

 

[HuskyBoi]

Lamb averaged about 16 ppg in the BET and NCAAT, he was also 12-17 from 3 in the NCAAT.

It would be awesome to get that production from Boat during the AAC and NCAAT

This team has a chip on their shoulder, I KNOW boat and the gang will show up in this tournament. I just know it.