Creme: Best and worst case scenarios for top 25 teams

[MilfordHusky]

Charlie lists only 3 teams possibly winning the NC: LSU, UConn, and Iowa. Everyone else's best case is Final Four or less. Our worst case still includes a conference championship.

How far can every women's Top 25 team really go this season?

The 2024 NCAA title hunt appears more wide open, with as many as eight contenders. We break down the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Top 25.

www.espn.com

 

[Geew1992]

I say SC has a better chance than Iowa.

 

[mudcat]

I'm one of the (very small) minority who thinks Iowa will be better in the frontcourt this year: Cinzano scored well, but was a mediocre rebounder and did not guard the post well. I actually think that once they settle in O'Grady and Stuelke will be an upgrade. I'm not saying they'll win it all, but I think they will be a better all around team this year.

 

[DefenseBB]

I say SC has a better chance than Iowa.

SC certainly has talent on the roster and added Paopao to run the point and still has Cardoso to man the paint but there is still a concern on where is all the scoring going to come from to thwart off what Iowa can do. While I do think many people are underestimating SC due to the losses in graduation, your comment about having a better chance that Iowa is a "bridge too far" for me to rally behind.
SC is still a top 10 team but their shooting is still suspect and you need to score to win titles. For as great as Dawn made SC with Aaliyah Boston, she still only won 1 title with her. Why-lack of shooting. Food for thought....

 

[Next 12]

Charlie Creme always goes too far in his assessments of for and against any team he is talking about . The only statement he made that I agree with is, Uconn has no weaknesses on it's roster and will win it's BE title and 12th NC. Uconn has one thing going for them that is powerful and driving and that is to restore the Uconn brand of BB back to the Uconn way of playing the game and winning. It is the hallmark of Women's BB and Uconn is the poster child. GO HUSKIES!!!!!

 

[MSGRET]

Here is a very scary thought that many teams don't have as a luxury. Very few teams can play two seperate starting fives and not have to put one or two players on both teams. Currently UConn could actually have their top ten players play as starting fives for most other teams and most likely be better than those team's current starting five. If they can go through the season without any other major injuries, I see no team beating them and will go undefeated and win #12.

 

[Cuango]

Charlie lists only 3 teams possibly winning the NC: LSU, UConn, and Iowa. Everyone else's best case is Final Four or less. Our worst case still includes a conference championship.

How far can every women's Top 25 team really go this season?

The 2024 NCAA title hunt appears more wide open, with as many as eight contenders. We break down the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Top 25.

www.espn.com

I am just gobsmacked at the level of disrespect this guy is showing for South Carolina! It’s just unbelievable and borders on ridiculous! It was bad enough when I saw his first ranking which had SC at #6, three spots behind UCLA! Well, I was shocked then so you can imagine how I felt when I opened his latest predictions for how everyone will really fare this season! Now, he has SC as the eighth most likely team to win the championship! Unbelievable! Dawn must be in hysterics.

I must say, I‘ve never cared much for Creme’s work as I believe he has allowed himself to be tainted with his employers obvious biases. However, I’ve always thought he knew his stuff but simply allowed some bias to creep in. This makes me question even that!

I believe SC is no worse than third and quite possibly second! I think they will smoke LSU and will most likely win the SEC and are frankly my most dreaded opponent this season! I am quite confident that we can beat every team on our schedule except for SC! I know we can win against them but it’s certainly no gimme!

The other shocking thing is his placement of UCLA as the third best team in the country! I can only assume he thinks Betts is going to be a Dee/Maya/Candace kind of player who is going to take that team on her shoulders and drive them to Cleveland! I’m sorry, I just don’t see it happening! Sure, they have talent but they are not a good shooting team, which is what you need in order to maximize the benefit of a dominant big, and their coach has a history of doing less with more! ( I realize Dawn did okay with a dominant big and a mediocre to poor shooting team but there was an obvious difference. Dawn was the coach!)

I realize it’s possible that my pre final four dinner could be crow but I doubt it! I think those two teams (SC & UCLA) are much more likely to end up in reverse order of where Creme has put them on this list! If I’m right (and I’m always right) I’ll be having Steak & Lobster and Creme will be the one eating crow!

Finally though, I must acknowledge, few things would give me more pleasure than to see SC, our biggest rival, finish eighth (or below) in the country! Unfortunately, that is simply not going to happen! I think it’s far more likely that we will be facing them for the championship! I desperately hope not but, there it is!

 

[TCC Kid]

Charlie lists only 3 teams possibly winning the NC: LSU, UConn, and Iowa. Everyone else's best case is Final Four or less. Our worst case still includes a conference championship.

How far can every women's Top 25 team really go this season?

The 2024 NCAA title hunt appears more wide open, with as many as eight contenders. We break down the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Top 25.

www.espn.com

I don't have much to argue about with this report. I am not a Mulkey fan! Having said that she has had her share of successes. I'm pleased LSU is getting some of the spot lights.
My bias is Uconn--it is difficult for me to even think another team may will it all. I don't know how Mulkey seduced those two high profile, high productive players to come play for her. Her off court personality, decor, demeanor must be totally different than the--person needing significant help on court.
I concur with the Paige and Azzi analysis--and that is an issue that gives me heart burn. How long can Paige, Azzi, Caroline, Edwards, Nika (she may more than the others) stay healthy and on the floor?
If we can see some "budding" if not full out flowering from DeBerry--it could be a difference maker.
Please note: I didn't mention, KK, Samuels, etc whom have a very bright future---is that future NOW?

 

[TCC Kid]

I'm one of the (very small) minority who thinks Iowa will be better in the frontcourt this year: Cinzano scored well, but was a mediocre rebounder and did not guard the post well. I actually think that once they settle in O'Grady and Stuelke will be an upgrade. I'm not saying they'll win it all, but I think they will be a better all around team this year.

Nice! just nice.

 

[PacoSwede]

I am just gobsmacked at the level of disrespect this guy is showing for South Carolina! It’s just unbelievable and borders on ridiculous! It was bad enough when I saw his first ranking which had SC at #6, three spots behind UCLA! Well, I was shocked then so you can imagine how I felt when I opened his latest predictions for how everyone will really fare this season! Now, he has SC as the eighth most likely team to win the championship! Unbelievable! Dawn must be in hysterics.

ha, ha.

am sure dawn doesn't care a whit. ... or even a tenth of a whit

 

[TCC Kid]

I am just gobsmacked at the level of disrespect this guy is showing for South Carolina! It’s just unbelievable and borders on ridiculous! It was bad enough when I saw his first ranking which had SC at #6, three spots behind UCLA! Well, I was shocked then so you can imagine how I felt when I opened his latest predictions for how everyone will really fare this season! Now, he has SC as the eighth most likely team to win the championship! Unbelievable! Dawn must be in hysterics.

I must say, I‘ve never cared much for Creme’s work as I believe he has allowed himself to be tainted with his employers obvious biases. However, I’ve always thought he knew his stuff but simply allowed some bias to creep in. This makes me question even that!

I believe SC is no worse than third and quite possibly second! I think they will smoke LSU and will most likely win the SEC and are frankly my most dreaded opponent this season! I am quite confident that we can beat every team on our schedule except for SC! I know we can win against them but it’s certainly no gimme!

The other shocking thing is his placement of UCLA as the third best team in the country! I can only assume he thinks Betts is going to be a Dee/Maya/Candace kind of player who is going to take that team on her shoulders and drive them to Cleveland! I’m sorry, I just don’t see it happening! Sure, they have talent but they are not a good shooting team, which is what you need in order to maximize the benefit of a dominant big, and their coach has a history of doing less with more! ( I realize Dawn did okay with a dominant big and a mediocre to poor shooting team but there was an obvious difference. Dawn was the coach!)

I realize it’s possible that my pre final four dinner could be crow but I doubt it! I think those two teams (SC & UCLA) are much more likely to end up in reverse order of where Creme has put them on this list! If I’m right (and I’m always right) I’ll be having Steak & Lobster and Creme will be the one eating crow!

Finally though, I must acknowledge, few things would give me more pleasure than to see SC, our biggest rival, finish eighth (or below) in the country! Unfortunately, that is simply not going to happen! I think it’s far more likely that we will be facing them for the championship! I desperately hope not but, there it is!

Isn't that TERRIBLE, immoral, disgusting---Charlie is tainted by the guys who pay him.??
Why would anyone hope SC dropped below 8th this season? Didn't Dawn try to make her program a clone of Geno's? Rivals, yes even the Orange ones, are great for the game and for UConn. Yes, I'll talk hate/dislike when they defeat Uconn--I'm biased.

 

[oldhusky]

While the odds of winning a national championship this year may be concentrated in the top two or three teams, saying that a team in the top 10 or 12 has a ceiling of the Final Four is ridiculous. If you can make it to the Final Four you have at least a punchers chance of winning it. Two upsets in a row is quite possible even if you are the lowest ranked team in the Final Four.

Look at Arizona a few years ago. They were a 4 seed in the Final Four, upset Uconn and went right down to the wire against Stanford in the championship game. If anything the number of teams with at least some chance of winning the championship should at least be in double digits, certainly not 3.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Boston, she still only won 1 title with her. Why-lack of shooting. Food for thought....

In all fairness the 2020 tournament didn't happen, one FF loss was on a missed shot at the buzzer, and the other was to a hot shooting Iowa who wasn't being stopped.

I get your point though and SC's outside shooting was suspect for that entire run. It may have improved but it remains to be seen. SC will likely be very good though and one of the top 5 to 10 teams in the country.

 

[Bone Dog]

If I put UConn out of mind for a moment, then SC looks like the favorite to me. Not LSU, not Iowa, not UCLA. I’d probably put VPI right behind them. The only question for me is where to rank Tennessee, since I don’t know how well Key’s recovery has gone. And if Miles can get back on the court by early February, ND belongs in here somewhere too.

I’m surprised how little respect Charlie has for SC. Maybe it’s my mistake, but I think the only real step down for them this year is losing Boston. The others were very good role players but none were stars. All replaceable, and Dawn has found some fine talent to replace them with. I think Kamila will shine and Raven and Tehina will mesh very well around her.

 

[oldhusky]

If I put UConn out of mind for a moment, then SC looks like the favorite to me. Not LSU, not Iowa, not UCLA. I’d probably put VPI right behind them. The only question for me is where to rank Tennessee, since I don’t know how well Key’s recovery has gone. And if Miles can get back on the court by early February, ND belongs in here somewhere too.

I’m surprised how little respect Charlie has for SC. Maybe it’s my mistake, but I think the only real step down for them this year is losing Boston. The others were very good role players but none were stars. All replaceable, and Dawn has found some fine talent to replace them with. I think Kamila will shine and Raven and Tehina will mesh very well around her.

Perhaps LSU might be the most likely to win the SEC, I don't know, but regardless South Carolina has a darn good chance to win it and Tennessee probably has a long shot chance. Charlie has the worst case scenario for LSU still winning the SEC but failing in the NCAA tournament, that's just crazy. LSU is not a lock for the SEC championship or anywhere close to it even if they might be a favorite.

It appears that Charlie's lack of understanding of probabilities has him underestimating the spread or standard deviation of possible outcomes for all teams. He thinks only three teams can win the championship, ridiculously low upside for many good teams, and is equally underestimating downside for LSU if he thinks the SEC is a given.

 

[Cuango]

ha, ha.

am sure dawn doesn't care a whit. ... or even a tenth of a whit

You don’t think she’s amused? I think she’s gets a big smile on her face very time she sees these rankings.

 

[Cuango]

Isn't that TERRIBLE, immoral, disgusting---Charlie is tainted by the guys who pay him.??
Why would anyone hope SC dropped below 8th this season? Didn't Dawn try to make her program a clone of Geno's? Rivals, yes even the Orange ones, are great for the game and for UConn. Yes, I'll talk hate/dislike when they defeat Uconn--I'm biased.

? I missed the reference!

 

[Bone Dog]

Maybe it’s not a ranking. Just a list. If Charlie is simply going down a list and imagining best and worst cases, it doesn’t seem so silly. Of course, he’s still goofed by thinking that only 3 teams have an NC as a best case. But his worst cases imaginings are not very far off what fans are probably worried about. For UConn, his worst case is pretty gentle, and yet would lead to a dreary result.

 

[Alydar]

SC certainly has talent on the roster and added Paopao to run the point and still has Cardoso to man the paint but there is still a concern on where is all the scoring going to come from to thwart off what Iowa can do. While I do think many people are underestimating SC due to the losses in graduation, your comment about having a better chance that Iowa is a "bridge too far" for me to rally behind.
SC is still a top 10 team but their shooting is still suspect and you need to score to win titles. For as great as Dawn made SC with Aaliyah Boston, she still only won 1 title with her. Why-lack of shooting. Food for thought....

How many games did SCar lose in the last 3 years? And they aren't playing the sisters of the poor like some other SEC team(s).
The loss of an entire starting team is huge. But just looking at who is there now and considering that Staley has been consistently putting elite defensive teams on the floor for a decade or more they have to be among the top 5 in the country. SCar will again be very difficult to score on. Their level of success may lie with Fulwilly, who is being touted as the next Bueckers on Youtube.
SCar has questions but even mighty LSU hasn't replaced Morris and I don't see a proven pg on the team that has the tools and experience to win 2 FF games. Van Lith may try and she may be able to pull it off but she also could just as easily lead the team in to's.

 

[Alydar]

This is the first idea of Creme's that I like. At least it suggests that UConn isn't the only team with things that could go wrong. The analysis is a little superficial but that leaves room for debate.

 

[Cuango]

How many games did SCar lose in the last 3 years? And they aren't playing the sisters of the poor like some other SEC team(s).
The loss of an entire starting team is huge. But just looking at who is there now and considering that Staley has been consistently putting elite defensive teams on the floor for a decade or more they have to be among the top 5 in the country. SCar will again be very difficult to score on. Their level of success may lie with Fulwilly, who is being touted as the next Bueckers on Youtube.
SCar has questions but even mighty LSU hasn't replaced Morris and I don't see a proven pg on the team that has the tools and experience to win 2 FF games. Van Lith may try and she may be able to pull it off but she also could just as easily lead the team in to's.

I have no doubt that Fulwiley is going to be very good but “the next Bueckers?”, might be a stretch.

 

[visitingcock]

I have no doubt that Fulwiley is going to be very good but “the next Bueckers?”, might be a stretch.

@Alydar did say "being touted as the next Bueckers on Youtube." Youtube loves flashiness and LayLay has that. Even Paige acknowledges that Milaysia is "different." But I don't think any people are touting the HG #13 as being equal to the unanimous number one in 2020 who has the first and only freshman POTY.

I do think Milaysia will have an impact on our team as a freshman, but she wont start - at least in the first half of the season. Paige started from Day One didn't she?

 

[Bone Dog]

Milaysia looks promising to me.

 

[MilfordHusky]

@Alydar did say "being touted as the next Bueckers on Youtube." Youtube loves flashiness and LayLay has that. Even Paige acknowledges that Milaysia is "different." But I don't think any people are touting the HG #13 as being equal to the unanimous number one in 2020 who has the first and only freshman POTY.

I do think Milaysia will have an impact on our team as a freshman, but she wont start - at least in the first half of the season. Paige started from Day One didn't she?

Yeah, Geno was planning on not starting Paige, because she was a freshman. Two weeks into June practice, he changed his mind.

Fulwiley looks good, but does not remind me of Paige. A good comparison--and something she should aspire to--is Moriah Jefferson.