Championship Predictions

[bballnut90]

The matchup is set. Who do you think wins?

SC is the clear favorite, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Iowa pull this out. Part of what makes South Carolina so dominant is that they wear teams down which we saw tonight in the 3rd quarter when they absolutely blitzed NC State, but Iowa doesn't get worn out and loves to run which should negate that advantage. I don't see South Carolina having anyone to match up with Clark like how Muhl was able to contain her, and their 3pt defense has not been strong in the tournament which bodes well for Iowa. Now, all of that said, South Carolina is far more athletic, taller, deeper and will destroy Iowa on the boards and in the paint. I don't see Stuehlke putting up 23 on Cardoso/Watkins and expect SC to dominate inside.

 

[Vowelguy]

84-58

 

[GoChips20]

Either South Carolina is going to give up a second straight undefeated season to Iowa or Iowa is going to miss out on two straight national title games. Both of those are unlikely in any other circumstance but one of them has to come true now.

SC should have a major advantage inside, while Iowa has a less-pronounced advantage at guard. But guards carry the wind this time of year.

I’ll say this - the last few teams to make back-to-back title games (Mississippi State in 2017-18; Notre Dame in 2018-19) have not fared well. Small sample size, but something to look out for.

 

[SCGamecock]

SC can’t let this be a close game in any way. Hard to do against Iowa but if they allow it to be a bar burner then we will without a doubt have a controversial end. I’ve noticed all season that referees tend to skew towards Iowa late in games. SC can’t allow them any room to decide the game.

 

[maple]

I’ll say this - the last few teams to make back-to-back title games (Mississippi State in 2017-18; Notre Dame in 2018-19) have not fared well. Small sample size, but something to look out for.

Don’t forget UConn beating ND at back-to-back title games in 2014 & 2015.

 

[maple]

SC can’t let this be a close game in any way. Hard to do against Iowa but if they allow it to be a bar burner then we will without a doubt have a controversial end. I’ve noticed all season that referees tend to skew towards Iowa late in games. SC can’t allow them any room to decide the game.

100% SC needs to come out and set the tone right away. I know they tend to be more of a 2nd half kind of team, but Iowa is too. So IMO SC has to have a nice lead going into the half. Frustrate Clark and take advantage of her lax defense.

Maybe Cardoso has ten more banked 3s in her…?

 

[Centerstream]

I am kinda surprised that the betting line this morning is SoCar -6.5. I was expecting double digits and then remembered, Iowa is playing.

 

[bballnut90]

I am kinda surprised that the betting line this morning is SoCar -6.5. I was expecting double digits and then remembered, Iowa is playing.

Why would you expect it to be double digits? Look at SC's margin of victory in several of their last games:

vs. Tennessee - win by 8
vs. Texas A&M - win by 11
vs. Tennessee - win by 1
vs. LSU - win by 7
vs. Indiana - win by 4
vs. Oregon State - win by 12

South Carolina blowing out NC State and UNC have been outliers since their UCONN win. Their offense is solid but they aren't lighting up good teams like they were the first half of the year. Iowa is the best team they'll face too.

 

[Centerstream]

Why would you expect it to be double digits?

Just because I do. No particular reason.
Honestly I could care less and I just made a comment. I do think that SoCar is the best team this season and they deserve to finish it undefeated.

 

[ConwayGmck]

This was posted on another Gamecock board:

This was how Iowa defended the Aliyah Boston Gamecocks last season.

In this NCAAT:

R. Johnson: 7-13 (.539)

Fulwiley: 11-26 (.423)

Paopao: 11-27 (.407)

T. Johnson: 6-17 (.353)

And Iowa don't have Czinano this time around. They will have to figure out a different way to defend South Carolina this time. And Cardoso still put up 14 pts on 7-9 shooting with 14 rebounds last year, so they'll still have to contend with her. Iowa typically is NOT what one would call a defensive grinder, but they surprisingly (to me) defended the Gamecocks well last season, and defended Connecticut well in this tournament. Both USC and CT are two different animals: against CT one doesn't necessarily have to have stout post defenders, while versus USC one does.

The Gamecocks still pulled down 49 boards (Iowa only had 25) in the Final Four game last season, but Boston was effectively blanketed while the perimeter players shot 4-20 from the outside - 0-10 past Raven and Bree. That stymied the Gamecock's offense enough to allow Clark and Czinano to pull Iowa past the Gamecocks. Turnovers may play a critical role in tomorrow's game - the Gamecocks have been a bit sloppy in their ball handling during this tournament, but have improved from their tournament ratio last season (1.49 vs 1.26), but had 15 turnovers to only 9 assists versus the Hawkeyes. They will have to do better this time around.

Last season's encounter, Gamecock starters Victaria Saxton, Kierra Fletcher, and Brea Beal combined to shoot 1-15 for 3 pts, to go with Boston's struggles of shooting 2-9 and scoring just 8 pts. It's highly doubtful that the starting unit struggles to score this time around. The Gamecock bench out-scored Iowa's reserves last tournament 38-6, with Cardoso and Raven Johnson (13 pts) leading the way. Kitts, Feagin, and Watkins did not make an appearance in the Final Four game - all are expected to do so Sunday, especially Watkins: Ashlyn has appeared in 69 games as a Gamecock thus far in her college career. The Gamecocks are 69-0 in those games......

 

[JDuro]

Might I add that Ashlyn, Sania, and Chloe are also much greater midrange threats from the 4 than Victaria and LA.

 

[bballnut90]

Here's a likely meaningless stat that favors South Carolina. The team that beats UCONN in the Final Four is only 3-7 in title games.

1991-Virginia (lost in title game) (OT game)
1996-Tennessee (won in title game)
2001-Notre Dame (won) (shot at buzzer missed)
2008-Stanford (lost)
2011-Notre Dame (lost)
2012-Notre Dame (lost)
2017-Mississippi State (lost)
2018-Notre Dame (won) (shot at buzzer made)
2019-Notre Dame (lost) (FTs missed at end)
2021-Arizona (lost) (shot at buzzer missed)
2024-Iowa ??

Another even more meaningless stat--6 of these 10 games came down to the very last play of regulation or OT. In the last 30 years, only 2 other title games have come down to final possessions (1994 and 2006), so if there's any correlation here, we might get another classic game between South Carolina and Iowa.

 

[Urshurak]

The narrative is still Caitlyn Clark and Iowa, so the refs will absolutely be on their side as they were against UConn, so SC absolutely has to plan for that. They will not get the calls.

 

[WBBTakeover]

Iowa has, essentially, one day to prepare for the best team (by far) they've faced in two years--and that team is teeming with vengeful energy. Good luck with that.

 

[The deacon]

The narrative is still Caitlyn Clark and Iowa, so the refs will absolutely be on their side as they were against UConn, so SC absolutely has to plan for that. They will not get the calls.

Iowa has, essentially, one day to prepare for the best team (by far) they've faced in two years--and that team is teeming with vengeful energy. Good luck with that.

Dawn Staley not get the calls, Urshurak? I'll be surprised if that were to happen.

Agreed, WBB... and the Hawkeyes must be exhausted, mentally and physically, from a tight and emotional game last night that ended well into the night, plus all the press conferences to follow. SC had to do it all, too, but was able to coast through.

I could envision a game in which Caitlin starts pretty well and keeps it close 'til halftime, then the Gamecocks once again pull away as they did vs. NC State. The Hawkeyes have been on a memorable run of big wins for two seasons. Do they have another stunner, perhaps their biggest, left up their sleeves?

 

[triaddukefan]

I wrote this at the beginning of the tournament. @The deacon

I thought they would lose vs UCONN


I ain't betting against them no more


Official Hawkeye Fan Shop

 

[TC22]

The difference in this SC team and last is the skill level across the board has risen, other than Aliyah. What Kamilla doesn’t have in some of Aliyah’s strengths she makes up with her 6’7” height. Right now she is playing incredible BB.

I really think offensively there’s a massive upgrade in the starters. Massive. Last year off the bench we brought freshman Raven coming off major knee surgery and 30 lbs heavier than she is now, Breezy, Amihere and Kamilla. The girls coming off the bench this year are Chloe/Watkins, Fulwiley, Tessa Johnson and Feagin.

I don’t know if we will win tomorrow, but the heart and soul of our team is Raven Johnson. What happened with the Clark wave-off thing wasn’t the problem. It was the social media swell of hateful and mocking Iowa fans (and others) that took her out but she took it and came out on the other side with a drive that’s been incredible.

It’s going to be a huge game tomorrow. Of course the officiating will be huge and we’ll see if they let CC forearm her way into open shots but I really think SC will win. It will take all 4 quarters and all 9 players but I think Dawn and this team learned from last year.

‘What got NC State to the FF was their 3 pt shooting and their transition. They got very few points in transition last night. If we can just take that away from Iowa it will be a huge blow to what they like to do. I think we’ve got the athletes to do it.

 

[ConnManFan]

I think we are in for a great game. Hopefully everyone has fun and stays healthy.

 

[Floridaduck]

I will watch the game but Iowa ( who I do root for casually) is pretty clearly overmatched at four positions. Nothing they can do about Cardosa. Someone who is not Paopao will be spending her time in Clark’s shorts all game ( Ala Muhl ). Iowa will play well but the end result is a forgone conclusion IMO
Anything else would be a major surprise.

 

[cancontent]

Looking forward to this game, but don't have any predictions. What I do hope is that we get a great game without the histrionics from last year's. I want the chatter to be about the game and these teams, not something that takes away from what we see today.

 

[jdote33]

Really like this coach. I think she articulated the dynamics of the clash poignantly.

 

[Zanzman]

I wrote this at the beginning of the tournament. @The deacon

View attachment 99073

I thought they would lose vs UCONN


I ain't betting against them no more


Official Hawkeye Fan Shop

Didn’t happen without pics

 

[JstVisiting]

Why would you expect it to be double digits? Look at SC's margin of victory in several of their last games:

Because South Carolina is double digits better than Iowa?

 

[triaddukefan]

Didn’t happen without pics

pics of what?

 

[Zanzman]

pics of what?

You eating the dogs in an Iowa shirt