Bubble teams

[Waquoit]

You're fighting a losing battle.

Just like you were when you said UConn was not a lock going into the Cincy game.

P.S. Bubble watch is extremely conservative putting teams in lock.

I'm calling a flag here. You seem to using Bubble Watch as an authority and disagreeing with pep about UConn being on the bubble last week. But Bubble Watch did not have UConn as a lock last week. So was Bubble Watch wrong?

 

[storrsroars]

Daily Bracket now has SMU at 11 in a play-in game, while Bracket Matrix shows SMU is in all 81 polls, with more than half having them as a 10 or better.
Even after updates this week that will move them down, hard to see them falling out, although I guess with a first-round loss they could go to a 12 seed play-in.

UConn sitting in 25th on DB's S-Curve rank, as the best 7th seed.

Meantime, Pitt is sending everyone on Clemson lifetime gift certificates to Primanti Bros. They were 0.1 seconds from the NIT. Maybe even less. Clemson's gaffe probably cost PC or BYU a spot.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

BYU is a lock. They are in no danger of losing their bid, and do not need to win another game. There is not a single hole in their resume.

SMU got helped out by a few faceplants the last few days. Iowa, Missouri, Georgetown (probably out of it at this point) and Arkansas all threw up on themselves. Arkansas and Iowa in particular, went from "in" to in deep bubble trouble. Iowa looks like a team about to lose in the first round of their conference tournament. Arkansas has a 62 RPI, which is really hard to overcome, and two wins over an OK Kentucky team are not enough.

 

[Inyatkin]

I'm oddly fascinated to see what happens to Providence. They are right on the edge, it seems, and one upset in a conference tourney (like Gonzaga nearly last night) and they're probably done. They had really better win a game or two in the fake Big East tournament.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I forgot to mention California among schools that threw up on themselves.

Providence beats St. Johns, they are probably in the dance. Lose that game, and PC is probably out. SMU can not lose to Houston. With all the other losses, a win may be enough to get them a bid.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

This would only be true if these other bubble teams had 4 wins as good as SMU does. Almost all of them do not.

St. John's is on the bubble. Their best win is Creighton - their 2nd best win is either PC or Georgetown and both of those teams are on the bubble too.

PC beat Creighton and Xavier. Their third best win is also against a bubble team.

If you're calling SMU a bubble team, these are the resumes they are up against.

One of Xavier, St John's and PC will make the tournament just because there isn't enough everywhere else to keep the BE from getting three bids. At the moment I would wager that it is ~50/50 that two of the three will get bids (possibly both in play-in games) but a couple of surprises in conference tournaments would knock some bubble teams out and the BE schools are in very tenuous situations. I imagine that it would take quite a few upsets (and three or four non-tournament teams to gain autobids) before SMU needs to worry.

 

[Jerry1714]

BYU is a lock. They are in no danger of losing their bid, and do not need to win another game. There is not a single hole in their resume.

SMU got helped out by a few faceplants the last few days. Iowa, Missouri, Georgetown (probably out of it at this point) and Arkansas all threw up on themselves. Arkansas and Iowa in particular, went from "in" to in deep bubble trouble. Iowa looks like a team about to lose in the first round of their conference tournament. Arkansas has a 62 RPI, which is really hard to overcome, and two wins over an OK Kentucky team are not enough.

Now you think Iowa is on the bubble?

Very very odd

 

[Jerry1714]

I'm calling a flag here. You seem to using Bubble Watch as an authority and disagreeing with pep about UConn being on the bubble last week. But Bubble Watch did not have UConn as a lock last week. So was Bubble Watch wrong?

I said bubble watch is conservative on "locking" teams, I thought that explained it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Now you think Iowa is on the bubble?

Very very odd

1 top 25 win, 4-8 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100, only 19 wins, 46 rpi. Falling apart down the stretch. Hardly a lock.

 

[Jerry1714]

1 top 25 win, 4-8 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100, only 19 wins, 46 rpi. Falling apart down the stretch. Hardly a lock.

You do realize 68 teams make it right?

They are a lock and it really is not even debatable.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

2 things.

1) Espn's bubble watch is not conservative about "locking" teams, and will unlock them if a team picks up some bad losses.

3) Lunardi is known for switching in teams from non-major conferences into his final projections, usually without explanation. This enables him to keep stringing along fans of mediocre high major teams while keeping his track record on his final projection.

So just because espn is saying something about a team's tournament chances now doesn't mean their writers even believe it.

 

[Ha Who]

As usual Pitt is not it

 

[storrsroars]

I'm thinking any team from St. Joe's and higher (using S-curve from Daily Bracket) is not going to fall out at this point. So that should mean 10 spots are still open for debate. IMO, there are 15 teams still competing for those slots.

I think the current bubble more or less breaks down as follows:
Need one win to lock: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Ariz St., Okla St., Stanford, Iowa, Pitt, Cal
Need two wins: Arkansas, SMU, Xavier, BYU, Tenn
Need three wins: Minn, G'Town

If any of the one-win teams loses in 1st round of their tourneys, there's certainly a chance that one of the two-win teams can jump them with only one win.

 

[pepband99]

I reference other people to reiterate the point they are a lock.

The projected RPI is a flawed tool.

The best case for SMU I believe is finishing 1-2. That one potential win being Houston. If so, care to wager if they get in or not?

I'd love to know why you think the projected RPI as "a flawed tool" , especially given that it's:

1) A statistical estimate, that as of right now has:
2) A full data set.

There isn't really that much movement possible in these numbers, given the number of games in play now. The estimate of what will happen is likely spot on, or at most a spot or 2 off.

 

[storrsroars]

I'd love to know why you think the projected RPI as "a flawed tool" , especially given that it's:

1) A statistical estimate, that as of right now has:
2) A full data set.

There isn't really that much movement possible in these numbers, given the number of games in play now. The estimate of what will happen is likely spot on, or at most a spot or 2 off.

If you read the methodology for BPI, it's a better tool than RPI. It takes into account things like star players missing from the lineup among other data points that RPI doesn't account for.

 

[pepband99]

Yes, but the BPI isn't what the committee uses.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I'm thinking any team from St. Joe's and higher is not going to fall out at this point. So that should mean 10 spots are still open for debate. IMO, there are 15 teams still competing for those slots.

I think the current bubble more or less breaks down as follows:
Need one win to lock: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Ariz St., Okla St., Stanford, Iowa, Pitt, Cal
Need two wins: Arkansas, SMU, Xavier, BYU, Tenn
Need three wins: Minn, G'Town

If any of the one-win teams loses in 1st round of their tourneys, there's certainly a chance that one of the two-win teams can jump them with only one win.

Fair assessment for the most part. I do think the bubble is a little smaller than that. Any team with an RPI 40 or better is locked in at this point (BYU, Dayton, Gonzaga), and 41-45 are in excellent shape. Southern Miss and Toledo are exceptions, and the Selection Committee has a track record of keeping teams like them out if they don't at least make their conference final. RPI Rankings of 46 and down have some work and scoreboard watching to do.

The Committee has a long history of leaning very heavily on RPI to put the field together, and when it is really close, the teams with the better RPI's generally get the bids.

Tonight is a big night for the bubble because both Gonzaga and BYU play. If they both win, that saves a bid for an Arkansas or Minnesota.

 

[seanmc94]

Gtown is cooked unless they win out; same with minny

 

[storrsroars]

Yes, but the BPI isn't what the committee uses.

Which has nothing to do with the assertion that RPI is a flawed tool. Compared to BPI, and maybe even KenPom among other rating methods, RPI does seem incomplete, thus flawed.

 

[pepband99]

You're missing the original point. Jerry1714 was claiming the PROJECTED RPI was flawed because (paraphrasing) "there could be upsets, so that number might not be close to right"

It's not about whether or not the metric is right as a measure of teams.

 

[pepband99]

Last night's http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ entry has SMU off on one bracket, and down to a 10 seed. And that's before they play Houston.

I still stick to my guess here - win, and they're in. Lose, and they sweat.

 

[Jerry1714]

Yes, but the BPI isn't what the committee uses.

Not true:

The NCAA allows (but from what I interpreted, does not heartily endorse) any Selection Committee member to useSagarin, KenPom, LRMC, Massey or any type of ratings system (including — WHAT — the Coaches’ Poll? It’s true, unfortunately). Those systems are not brought up on the big screen, unless by request, which never happened at our mock.

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/34887185

 

[seanmc94]

the RPI is very flawed. Ex: PC has an RPI of 53 right now; squarely on the bubble. If PC had been able to hold onto a 3 pt lead with 8 seconds left(with the ball) and beat Seton Hall in Providence; PC's RPI jumps to 39; effectively punching their ticket. Beating a team with an RPI of 148 should not make you an NCAA team.

 

[Jerry1714]

2 things.

1) Espn's bubble watch is not conservative about "locking" teams, and will unlock them if a team picks up some bad losses.

3) Lunardi is known for switching in teams from non-major conferences into his final projections, usually without explanation. This enables him to keep stringing along fans of mediocre high major teams while keeping his track record on his final projection.

So just because espn is saying something about a team's tournament chances now doesn't mean their writers even believe it.

You think bubble watch is not conservative because you think teams like Iowa are on the bubble.

You are on an island with a lot of your opinions, that is not bubble watches fault.

 

[pepband99]

the RPI is very flawed. Ex: PC has an RPI of 53 right now; squarely on the bubble. If PC had been able to hold onto a 3 pt lead with 8 seconds left(with the ball) and beat Seton Hall in Providence; PC's RPI jumps to 39; effectively punching their ticket. Beating a team with an RPI of 148 should not make you an NCAA team.

It should, if you're rating teams against one another. A SH home win, in a vacuum, indeed is not much. When it's your 9th or 10th loss you're talking about, and that tends to be the cut line, it's huge.