Bowl math

[Big Loubowski]

Anyone have an idea of what another win could mean for a possible bowl invite? Does it make an invite more likely?

 

[RSTuthill]

Just win, baby. The rest will take care of itself... with the help of the AD of course.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Whatever bowl we need to bring 20,000 fans to get noticed.

That ain't happening. For any of the bowls UConn is being looked at, 5k-7k fans will be a lot.

Outside of the CFB playoff games there are only another 6-8 bowls where fans travel en masses. This isn't the 1990's any more.

I'd be ecstatic if UConn brought 20k fans to a bowl game this season, and it would he great for the school's reputation but I don't see that happening here.

 

[Vuce]

That ain't happening. For any of the bowls UConn is being looked at, 5k-7k fans will be a lot.

Outside of the CFB playoff games there are only another 6-8 bowls where fans travel en masses. This isn't the 1990's any more.

I'd be ecstatic if UConn brought 20k fans to a bowl game this season, and it would he great for the school's reputation but I don't see that happening here.

I talked to my contact in the AD yesterday at the game and was told that based on the email they sent out last week asking for a non binding commitment to buy tix to any bowl game (to use or donate) they were over 4K. I think they will be sending out another email after this win or after the Army game - getting over 5K will not be a problem and hoping to get significantly over that - between 7500 and 10k would be a no brainer. What a game and what a fun season!

 

[Husky92]

I talked to my contact in the AD yesterday at the game and was told that based on the email they sent out last week asking for a non binding commitment to buy tix to any bowl game (to use or donate) they were over 4K. I think they will be sending out another email after this win or after the Army game - getting over 5K will not be a problem and hoping to get significantly over that - between 7500 and 10k would be a no brainer. What a game and what a fun season!

This is a much more realistic goal. 20,000 would be great. But we only had 15 against ranked Liberty yesterday. I can’t image 20,000 willing to travel over the holidays to see a lesser bowl against a Wyoming or similar team.

And I say this fully expecting to go myself!

 

[huskymedic]

 

[aburks41]

That ain't happening. For any of the bowls UConn is being looked at, 5k-7k fans will be a lot.

Outside of the CFB playoff games there are only another 6-8 bowls where fans travel en masses. This isn't the 1990's any more.

I'd be ecstatic if UConn brought 20k fans to a bowl game this season, and it would he great for the school's reputation but I don't see that happening here.

If we got the Fenway bowl we would easily bring 20k. There are thousands of us in Boston already and it’s a very easy drive from CT

 

[SubbaBub]

Bowl with contractual obligations are filled first, any left over spots are then grouped by record. All FBS teams with 7-5 records go first before any 6-6 team even if that team is from a P5 conference that has already filled it's contract slots. Both the SEC and B1G will get multiple teams into the CFP/NY6 bowl games, at least 5 and possibly 6 of the 12 total spots. This will leave their lower end bowl spots vacant. A few have backup arrangements with G5 conferences others are 'at-large'.

Another important factor is APR. Bowl priority is assigned first by wins and then by APR. A 6-6 team with the highest APR goes first. Once all the teams are identified, the bowls do talk about finding the best fits with the networks, primarily ESPN which owns a number of these lesser bowl games.

Beating Army would all but guarantee a spot. 6-6 is likely still good enough but would depend on other factors, akin to bid stealers on Selection Sunday.

 

[Westies53]

Last year, ESPN literally created a bowl game called the Frisco Football Classic and set it up in a matter of weeks just so every bowl-eligible team had a bowl game to play in. I would assume that if that scenario presents itself again, that might be a last ditch option.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Army beat 2 FCS teams but only one of those wins counts towards bowl eligibility, meaning they have a max of 5 wins

Could be - I didn't dive that deep into it/not sure what their special status is with their potential bowl tie-in(s) involves.

 

[wheelerdog]

I did a quick but hopefully accurate nose count of reams that need to win 1, 2, or 3 games to get to six wins. Some almost certainly won't make it based on who they play. Total of 36 teams. Clearly, the games need to be played to see how the dust settles....

Need 1 win (18 teams): Miami (FL), Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Sparty, Wisconsin, Rice, MTSU, FAU, UAB, BYU, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Utah State, Arkansas, GA Southern, App State, Southern Miss.

Need to win 2 (17 teams): Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Iowa State, Rutgers, UTEP, FIU, New Mexico State, Central Michigan, Miami (FL), Kent State, UNLV, Arizona, Auburn, Missouri, Vanderbilt, GA Southern, LA -Monroe.

Need to win 3 (1 team): Army.

Commence the voodoo magic!

Add Memphis and Louisiana to the list of teams with 5.

 

[Kolumbo]

Last year, ESPN literally created a bowl game called the Frisco Football Classic and set it up in a matter of weeks just so every bowl-eligible team had a bowl game to play in. I would assume that if that scenario presents itself again, that might be a last ditch option.

The Revolution @ Rent Bowl. Buffalo should become bowl eligible at 5 wins with Akron and Kent St on its schedule.

"The NCAA approved the bowl game in order to accommodate all 83 bowl-eligible teams; otherwise, one bowl-eligible team would not have been selected for a bowl game.[a] The added bowl game essentially served as a replacement of the canceled San Francisco Bowl.[6]"

 

[huskymedic]

Last year, ESPN literally created a bowl game called the Frisco Football Classic and set it up in a matter of weeks just so every bowl-eligible team had a bowl game to play in. I would assume that if that scenario presents itself again, that might be a last ditch option.

McMurphy already threw water on ESPN doing that earlier in the week so it would have to be another network/streaming service stepping up it would appear;

 

[Kolumbo]

McMurphy already threw water on ESPN doing that earlier in the week so it would have to be another network/streaming service stepping up it would appear;

I don't trust a guy who gets his wording mixed up like this:

"If there aren't enough 6-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN won't create an additional bowl"

 

[Ajs120102]

I don't trust a guy who gets his wording mixed up like this:

"If there aren't enough 6-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN won't create an additional bowl"

I agree. I think ESPN would if there was 84-86 teams. Then again the math is against us. No sense to worry about it the cards will fall where they fall. Just enjoying the ride

 

[ClifSpliffy]

bowl math:
if you expect a big crowd at your house that's more ladies than men, buy an extra case or two of bathroom tissue.
bowl math.

silly posters, everyone knows which bowl we're going to - The Keith Bowl.
the early line has us giving 50. we'll cover, easy.

 

[PAGS]

Fenway is a possibility too, and we would be the regional team

It not gonna happen. Its one of the AAC/ACC guarantee games. And they both have more than enough teams. I wish I was wrong…but I don’t think I am

 

[storrsroars]

I was looking at the CBS bowl projections yesterday. Of the 82 available spots, 20 of them were filled with teams of 5, 4, or 3 (Army) wins. 62 were claimed with only UConn and Marshall having 6 wins but no spot.

There are still 39 teams competing for those 20 spots. Of those teams, here are their current records (P5 and Army listed in bold as those all have definite bowl game tie-ins):

6-4: Marshall
6-5: UConn
5-5: Memphis, Buffalo, BYU, GA Southern, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan St., Arkansas, Rice, Middle Tenn, So. Miss, App St., Ball St., Louisiana, Utah St., Bowling Green, FAU, UAB, Texas Tech, Miami
4-5: New Mexico St.
4-6: Iowa St., UNLV, Georgia St., Miami (OH), Missouri, Georgia Tech, UL Monroe, Vandy, Auburn, Kent St., Central Michigan, FIU, UTEP, WVU
3-6: Army

There are still 23 teams with a shot at 7 wins (or 8 for Marshall). It is incumbent for UConn to beat Army, as doing so not only gets them to 7 wins, but also opens up an additional bowl spot earmarked for Army (Independence Bowl).

 

[BlueandOG]

We are bowling. Period. Mora is a national figure, the turnaround is an amazing story, UCONN has a national reputation, our fans travel well, and the football fans will watch/travel and SPEND MONEY on a bowl game.

 

[BugsyCT]

Does winning 7 make it automatic?

Since we're indy with no bowl tie-ins, nothing is automatic, but 7 wins makes our chances way better than 6.

 

[Kolumbo]

So I did my projections by league (# of teams I think will be bowl eligible):
AAC (7)
ACC (9)
Big 12 (8)
B1G (10)
C-USA (5)
Indies (3)
MAC (5)
MW (7)
Pac-12 (7)
SEC (10)
Sun Belt (9)

Bid not including UConn: 82

As of right now, I would rate our chances of going bowling at around 45%. Army is a must win.

9 from the Sun Belt? Sun BeIt currently has 5 eligible teams. I saw that one projection has Western Kentucky and Georgia Southern in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. GA Southern has 5 wins with games against Marshall (6 wins) and App State (5 wins), while App State has games against Georgia Southern and ODU (3 wins). Lots of math to figure.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Add Memphis and Louisiana to the list of teams with 5.

Good catches.

 

[Dizzy21]

I was looking at the CBS bowl projections yesterday. Of the 82 available spots, 20 of them were filled with teams of 5, 4, or 3 (Army) wins. 62 were claimed with only UConn and Marshall having 6 wins but no spot.

There are still 39 teams competing for those 20 spots. Of those teams, here are their current records (P5 and Army listed in bold as those all have definite bowl game tie-ins):

6-4: Marshall
6-5: UConn
5-5: Memphis, Buffalo, BYU, GA Southern, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan St., Arkansas, Rice, Middle Tenn, So. Miss, App St., Ball St., Louisiana, Utah St., Bowling Green, FAU, UAB, Texas Tech, Miami
4-5: New Mexico St.
4-6: Iowa St., UNLV, Georgia St., Miami (OH), Missouri, Georgia Tech, UL Monroe, Vandy, Auburn, Kent St., Central Michigan, FIU, UTEP, WVU
3-6: Army

There are still 23 teams with a shot at 7 wins (or 8 for Marshall). It is incumbent for UConn to beat Army, as doing so not only gets them to 7 wins, but also opens up an additional bowl spot earmarked for Army (Independence Bowl).

If Army wins out, the max wins they can get that go toward bowl eligibility is 5. They cannot become bowl eligible.

 

[storrsroars]

If Army wins out, the max wins they can get that go toward bowl eligibility is 5. They cannot become bowl eligible.

I haven't gotten to that level of detail, but thanks for pointing it out. I think that also applies to App St.

So that leaves 37 teams vying for 20 spots.

 

[Vuce]

If Army wins out, the max wins they can get that go toward bowl eligibility is 5. They cannot become bowl eligible.

Army has 3 games left - vs us, UMass and Navy so they can still get to 6 wins. We can prevent that on Saturday