What makes you think think Anyone will open the bank for the Big East? Even the most optimistic projections say maybe $10, though most say in the $7-8 million range. But let’s say $10. Will Georgetown take 9 to get Kansas to the $15 needed to land them? Of course they won’t
Now you are starting to get closer to the understanding of what is possible.
Did UConn leave the larger AAC deal (“billion dollar deal”) for the smaller Big East TV payout? Yes, because it made better financial sense overall plus it was a better path forward.
Let’s use your numbers and the 80/20 valuation split for football/basketball that was referenced earlier in this thread. It’s not a bad estimation.
Would Georgetown take a $9M payout? Yes, that’s fair, let’s say every Big East team gets $9M in the next TV deal, including Kansas.
Using your $15M for the diluted nBig 12, Fox would only have to pay Kansas $6M for its football rights to make them whole.
So if the next Big East contract is worth $10M, and each school instead takes $9M, and Fox pays Kansas $11M for football, is this possible? I think so. Is it probable? It’s hard to predict CR, but it’s possible.
I was blistered on here for advocating UConn to the Big East long before it happened. I was crazy and stupid for discussing what was impossible. I made the same points about the Big East TV contract bring greater than 20% of the American TV deal, and UConn would be better off financially taking the top Basketball conference TV deal and generating football revenue as an independent.
It’s the same model here.
Using your $15M for nBig 12 and the 20% factor, their hoops portion would have a $3M TV value, less than the Big East’s hoop value. And Kansas is the marquee in that hoops value. The Big East has better markets and a better footprint, value continuing from Dave Gavit’s original vision.
Fox would have to have the heavy hand, working with Val, to make this happen.
Kansas, already a premium brand blue blood, would now be marketed in the higher value Big East markets. It would also have more stability for its basketball-first program. And more money.
Scoot, I don’t disparage the quality of nBig12 hoops. It’s a top 4 conference in hoops over the last 10 years, right there with the Big East. But Fox and the Big East plucking Kansas is possible.