Big East bubble

[shizzle787]

Four teams (St. John’s, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler) are firmly on the bubble and looking at their schedules I have all four at 19-12 going into the BET.

Providence is probably the only one who needs 20 wins to get in while the others can likely get away with 19 due to their schedules.

It is going to be a wild last 3-4 weeks in the regular season.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Butler looks good and I see them in as a 7-9 seed.

Providence will be sweating going into our game March 9. Yippee...

Hall or Villanova could go on a 5-2 run to end the season which would put them right at the cut line. I suppose X could do the same thing but they might still be short of the field.

Stick a fork in St. Johns

 

[Hunt for 7]

The middle of the pack is a problem for the BE this year. Us, Marquette and Creighton are locks. Seton Hall at 8-5 should be in better position but only 15-9 overall. They have 7 games left. Have a chance to win 4 but two are on the road vs us a Creighton. To me if they go 4-3 I believe 12-8 conference record gets them in. After that it’s a wild race for the last spot. I think we five in.

 

[auror]

Since we don't have much to care about as far as NCAA tournament selection or seeding for ourselves, I'm gonna do a weekly Big East Bubble Update. The most important metric for selection is the "Resume", which is the average of Strength of Record (SOR), KPI, and Wins Above Bubble (WAB). "Power" has more influence on seeding. Everything else varies committee by committee. BracketMatrix updated yesterday, but not yet today so Seton Hall's latest win is not yet reflected in the bracketology.

40. Villanova 13-11 (6-7 BE)
Power - #31, Resume - #66
Non-Conf SoS - #80
Away/Neutral: 5-7
Q1: 3-6 (1A 3-3)
Q2: 5-2
Top 2: 8-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 3
BracketMatrix - Next four out (#55)
Remaining schedule - @GTown, Butler, @ UConn, GTown, @Prov, @SHU, Creighton

47. St. John's 14-11 (6-8 BE)
Power - #38, Resume - #65
Non-Conf SoS - #172
Away/Neutral: 4-8
Q1: 2-9 (1A 1-6)
Q2: 5-1
Top 2: 7-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 1
BracketMatrix - First four out (#51)
Remaining schedule - SHU, @GTown, Creighton, @Butler, @DePaul, GTown

49. Butler 15-9 (7-7 BE)
Power - #52, Resume - #44
Non-Conf SoS - #86
Away/Neutral: 5-6
Q1: 4-8 (1A 2-3)
Q2: 3-1
Top 2: 7-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
BracketMatrix - 11 seed (#41)
Remaining schedule - Creighton, @Nova, @SHU, St. John's, @DePaul, Xavier

57. Xavier 13-12 (7-7 BE)
Power - #51, Resume - #66
Non-Conf SoS - #32
Away/Neutral: 3-7
Q1: 2-9 (1A 1-6)
Q2: 5-1
Top 2: 7-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 2
BracketMatrix - Off bubble (N/A)
Remaining schedule - Prov, @Marq, DePaul, @GTown, @Butler, Marq

58. Providence 16-9 (7-7 BE)
Power - #53, Resume - #52
Non-Conf SoS - #231
Away/Neutral: 3-7
Q1: 4-6 (1-4)
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 7-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
BracketMatrix - First team out (#49)
Remaining schedule - DePaul, @Xavier, @Marq, Nova, @GTown, UConn

67. Seton Hall 16-9 (9-5)
Power - #63, Resume - #60
Non-Conf SoS - #255
Away/Neutral: 5-6
Q1: 4-5 (1A 2-3)
Q2: 2-2
Top 2: 6-7
Q3+Q4 losses: 2
BracketMatrix - First four out (#50)
Remaining schedule - @St. John's, Butler, @Creighton, @ UConn, Nova, DePaul

For comparison, here's the last team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.

35. Cincinnati 15-9 (4-7 B12)
Power - #36, Resume - #57
Non-Conf SoS - #298
Away/Neutral: 3-5
Q1: 2-6 (1A 2-5)
Q2: 2-2
Top 2: 4-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 1
BracketMatrix - Last team in (#48)

To me, Providence has a better profile than Cincinnati. St. John's is quite similar.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Since we don't have much to care about as far as NCAA tournament selection or seeding for ourselves, I'm gonna do a weekly Big East Bubble Update. The most important metric for selection is the "Resume", which is the average of Strength of Record (SOR), KPI, and Wins Above Bubble (WAB). "Power" has more influence on seeding. Everything else varies committee by committee. BracketMatrix updated yesterday, but not yet today so Seton Hall's latest win is not yet reflected in the bracketology.

40. Villanova 13-11 (6-7 BE)
Power - #31, Resume - #66
Non-Conf SoS - #80
Away/Neutral: 5-7
Q1: 3-6 (1A 3-3)
Q2: 5-2
Top 2: 8-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 3
BracketMatrix - Next four out (#55)
Remaining schedule - @GTown, Butler, @ UConn, GTown, @Prov, @SHU, Creighton

47. St. John's 14-11 (6-8 BE)
Power - #38, Resume - #65
Non-Conf SoS - #172
Away/Neutral: 4-8
Q1: 2-9 (1A 1-6)
Q2: 5-1
Top 2: 7-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 1
BracketMatrix - First four out (#51)
Remaining schedule - SHU, @GTown, Creighton, @Butler, @DePaul, GTown

49. Butler 15-9 (7-7 BE)
Power - #52, Resume - #44
Non-Conf SoS - #86
Away/Neutral: 5-6
Q1: 4-8 (1A 2-3)
Q2: 3-1
Top 2: 7-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
BracketMatrix - 11 seed (#41)
Remaining schedule - Creighton, @Nova, @SHU, St. John's, @DePaul, Xavier

57. Xavier 13-12 (7-7 BE)
Power - #51, Resume - #66
Non-Conf SoS - #32
Away/Neutral: 3-7
Q1: 2-9 (1A 1-6)
Q2: 5-1
Top 2: 7-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 2
BracketMatrix - Off bubble (N/A)
Remaining schedule - Prov, @Marq, DePaul, @GTown, @Butler, Marq

58. Providence 16-9 (7-7 BE)
Power - #53, Resume - #52
Non-Conf SoS - #231
Away/Neutral: 3-7
Q1: 4-6 (1-4)
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 7-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
BracketMatrix - First team out (#49)
Remaining schedule - DePaul, @Xavier, @Marq, Nova, @GTown, UConn

67. Seton Hall 16-9 (9-5)
Power - #63, Resume - #60
Non-Conf SoS - #255
Away/Neutral: 5-6
Q1: 4-5 (1A 2-3)
Q2: 2-2
Top 2: 6-7
Q3+Q4 losses: 2
BracketMatrix - First four out (#50)
Remaining schedule - @St. John's, Butler, @Creighton, @ UConn, Nova, DePaul

For comparison, here's the last team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.

35. Cincinnati 15-9 (4-7 B12)
Power - #36, Resume - #57
Non-Conf SoS - #298
Away/Neutral: 3-5
Q1: 2-6 (1A 2-5)
Q2: 2-2
Top 2: 4-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 1
BracketMatrix - Last team in (#48)

To me, Providence has a better profile than Cincinnati. St. John's is quite similar.

Statistically, the odds are that some team or teams has to emerge from this pack, but these teams are so close in terms of overall quality that they will probably just keep beating each other on a joint march to the NIT.

 

[auror]

Since we don't have much to care about as far as NCAA tournament selection or seeding for ourselves, I'm gonna do a weekly Big East Bubble Update. The most important metric for selection is the "Resume", which is the average of Strength of Record (SOR), KPI, and Wins Above Bubble (WAB). "Power" has more influence on seeding. Everything else varies committee by committee. BracketMatrix updated yesterday, but not yet today so Seton Hall's latest win is not yet reflected in the bracketology.

40. Villanova 13-11 (6-7 BE)
Power - #31, Resume - #66
Non-Conf SoS - #80
Away/Neutral: 5-7
Q1: 3-6 (1A 3-3)
Q2: 5-2
Top 2: 8-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 3
BracketMatrix - Next four out (#55)
Remaining schedule - @GTown, Butler, @ UConn, GTown, @Prov, @SHU, Creighton

47. St. John's 14-11 (6-8 BE)
Power - #38, Resume - #65
Non-Conf SoS - #172
Away/Neutral: 4-8
Q1: 2-9 (1A 1-6)
Q2: 5-1
Top 2: 7-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 1
BracketMatrix - First four out (#51)
Remaining schedule - SHU, @GTown, Creighton, @Butler, @DePaul, GTown

49. Butler 15-9 (7-7 BE)
Power - #52, Resume - #44
Non-Conf SoS - #86
Away/Neutral: 5-6
Q1: 4-8 (1A 2-3)
Q2: 3-1
Top 2: 7-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
BracketMatrix - 11 seed (#41)
Remaining schedule - Creighton, @Nova, @SHU, St. John's, @DePaul, Xavier

57. Xavier 13-12 (7-7 BE)
Power - #51, Resume - #66
Non-Conf SoS - #32
Away/Neutral: 3-7
Q1: 2-9 (1A 1-6)
Q2: 5-1
Top 2: 7-10
Q3+Q4 losses: 2
BracketMatrix - Off bubble (N/A)
Remaining schedule - Prov, @Marq, DePaul, @GTown, @Butler, Marq

58. Providence 16-9 (7-7 BE)
Power - #53, Resume - #52
Non-Conf SoS - #231
Away/Neutral: 3-7
Q1: 4-6 (1-4)
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 7-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
BracketMatrix - First team out (#49)
Remaining schedule - DePaul, @Xavier, @Marq, Nova, @GTown, UConn

67. Seton Hall 16-9 (9-5)
Power - #63, Resume - #60
Non-Conf SoS - #255
Away/Neutral: 5-6
Q1: 4-5 (1A 2-3)
Q2: 2-2
Top 2: 6-7
Q3+Q4 losses: 2
BracketMatrix - First four out (#50)
Remaining schedule - @St. John's, Butler, @Creighton, @ UConn, Nova, DePaul

For comparison, here's the last team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.

35. Cincinnati 15-9 (4-7 B12)
Power - #36, Resume - #57
Non-Conf SoS - #298
Away/Neutral: 3-5
Q1: 2-6 (1A 2-5)
Q2: 2-2
Top 2: 4-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 1
BracketMatrix - Last team in (#48)

To me, Providence has a better profile than Cincinnati. St. John's is quite similar.

One more stat I should have included...

Wins Against Teams Under Consideration:
Nova: 7-7
St. John's: 5-9
Butler - 6-9
Xavier - 7-9
Providence - 6-8
Seton Hall - 6-6

Cincinnati - 3-8

 

[Tenspro2002]

We are really hurt by the fact that our best teams, resume-wise, are below .500 in conference, and vice versa.

Seton Hall at 9-5 in conference should be in great shape, but their OOC was terrible.

 

[uconngb]

One more stat I should have included...

Wins Against Teams Under Consideration:
Nova: 7-7
St. John's: 5-9
Butler - 6-9
Xavier - 7-9
Providence - 6-8
Seton Hall - 6-6

Cincinnati - 3-8

Between that stat and being 4-8 against Q1 and Q2, I fail to see how Cincy can be in

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Good night for the bubble. Colorado, Utah, Northwestern and Memphis go down.

 

[7774]

We are really hurt by the fact that our best teams, resume-wise, are below .500 in conference, and vice versa.

Seton Hall at 9-5 in conference should be in great shape, but their OOC was terrible.

They don’t even look at conference record.

 

[Hunt for 7]

They don’t even look at conference record.

That could be a bit of an exaggeration. Us getting a one seed probably rests with us finishing first in BE this year. What is bad for every BE school is that Seton Hall could go 12-8 or 13-7 in our league and still not get in. That unfortunately is the result of a conference that is not very good after the top three.

 

[7774]

That could be a bit of an exaggeration. Us getting a one seed probably rests with us finishing first in BE this year. What is bad for every BE school is that Seton Hall could go 12-8 or 13-7 in our league and still not get in. That unfortunately is the result of a conference that is not very good after the top three.

OK? My point was the NCAA tournament committee does not look at conference record. If Seton Hall doesn't make it, it will be because of non conference performance, not that the conference isn't good after the top 3.

 

[Matt1010]

That could be a bit of an exaggeration. Us getting a one seed probably rests with us finishing first in BE this year. What is bad for every BE school is that Seton Hall could go 12-8 or 13-7 in our league and still not get in. That unfortunately is the result of a conference that is not very good after the top three.

Seton Hall probably gets in with 12-8 and definitely does with 13-7. They also had a horrendous non conference showing so started off a few steps behind most other teams.

 

[REB1094]

UConn and Marquette are locks

Creighton is very close to being a lock

DePaul and Georgetown are hopeless

Villanova, Xavier, and St Johns should be out but their metrics are better than they are and could make it interesting

Literally everybody else is in the mix. This conference is fun

 

[CashewCrew]

That could be a bit of an exaggeration. Us getting a one seed probably rests with us finishing first in BE this year. What is bad for every BE school is that Seton Hall could go 12-8 or 13-7 in our league and still not get in. That unfortunately is the result of a conference that is not very good after the top three.

and yet it's the 2nd best conference on Kenpom

 

[auror]

Between that stat and being 4-8 against Q1 and Q2, I fail to see how Cincy can be in

In the last update, Providence and Cincy are now in a tie essentially.

 

[SoFla Steve]

We get a progress report tomorrow. First bracket reveal . . .

 

[navery12]

We get a progress report tomorrow. First bracket reveal . . .

View attachment 96509

Just the top 16 though so only relevant for us, Marquette and Creighton

 

[SoFla Steve]

Just the top 16 though so only relevant for us, Marquette and Creighton

Yes, you're right. I forgot about that.

 

[NJHusky]

Just the top 16 though so only relevant for us, Marquette and Creighton

Do they rank teams 1-16 or just seed #? If former, whos' #1, us or Purdue?

 

[navery12]

Do they rank teams 1-16 or just seed #? If former, whos' #1, us or Purdue?

They'll rank everyone 1-16 and put them in the region we'd go to if the tournament were today. So we'll see who's ahead between us and Purdue (likely Purdue) and what region we'd be in (likely East)

 

[storrsroars]

UConn and Marquette are locks

Creighton is very close to being a lock

DePaul and Georgetown are hopeless

Villanova, Xavier, and St Johns should be out but their metrics are better than they are and could make it interesting

Literally everybody else is in the mix. This conference is fun

You could say the same for the MWC. They could get 3,4 or 6.

 

[storrsroars]

In the last update, Providence and Cincy are now in a tie essentially.

Couple of sites now have Pitt on the bubble as 'next four out'. They've got two Q1 and two Q2 opptys left. If they get three of them (now possible with new rotation and less ISO), they could KO some other bubs and make Dayton.

 

[Fan1978]

Butler looks good and I see them in as a 7-9 seed.

Providence will be sweating going into our game March 9. Yippee...

Hall or Villanova could go on a 5-2 run to end the season which would put them right at the cut line. I suppose X could do the same thing but they might still be short of the field.

Stick a fork in St. Johns

St johns can easily go 5-1 if they win at home

 

[Jimdish255]

Good night for the bubble. Colorado, Utah, Northwestern and Memphis go down.

Colorado very frustrating team. Very inconsistent not just from game to game but during games. And weak inside presence. Now might be a, good time for them to take a look at other coaching options. Tad has plateaud with this program.