Beautiful charts about our offense, but what gives?

[StllH8L8ner]

I don’t care as long as we have more points than the other team when the clock strikes 0.0.

F Duke

 

[CL82]

This old Ken Pomeroy article is more about 3-pt defense, but it still illustrates the variability in 3-pt shooting this early in the year. The fact that we are getting quality looks and have multiple players who have historically shot well gives me a lot of confidence that our best play is still ahead of us. That should scare a lot of teams.

View attachment 94239

https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponents-3p/

Interesting. If we take this data on its face it would seem to indicate that our three-point shooting will trend down, not up. I would guess that the tendencies of top 20 teams to shoot better in the preseason while teams outside the top 20 shooting better in the regular season is likely due to teams in tough conferences scheduling easy opponents before conference play. That would result in top 20 teams, on average, facing easier defenses prior to the start of the season, while teams outside the top 20 would tend to face more challenging defenses in the preseason. Just a guess.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Interesting. If we take this data on its face it would seem to indicate that our three-point shooting will trend down, not up. I would guess that the tendencies of top 20 teams to shoot better in the preseason while teams outside the top 20 shooting better in the regular season is likely due to teams in tough conferences scheduling easy opponents before conference play. That would result in top 20 teams, on average, facing easier defenses prior to the start of the season, while teams outside the top 20 would tend to face more challenging defenses in the preseason. Just a guess.

Or, as others have suggested, as the season progresses you run plays for your good shooters to get more shots and the marginal shooters to take fewer shots.

 

[CL82]

Or, as others have suggested, as the season progresses you run plays for your good shooters to get more shots and the marginal shooters to take fewer shots.

That assumes that you don't already know who your good shooters are or that coaches are magnanimously letting bad shooters chuck it up. The former is unlikely and the latter would only be likely if you were playing overmatched opponents.

it be interesting to take a deeper dive in the data to figure it out though.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I feel like, and trying not to be biased, we are the best preparation for a player to get into the NBA.

I mean, we play focusing on four players on the outside all with shooting threats while emphasizing cuts if that fails. Is that not the closest thing to what NBA teams try to do each night?

We have some beautiful selling points to recruits/transfers, and above all it's just a joy to watch.

In Hurley we trust!

You still have to have iso skills in the NBA at the end of the day if you want to be any kind of a star player.

You can’t become an All Star without having that ability. Our offense is amazing for generating great looks for guys so they will succeed at a high level here and win games. For the NBA though they still need the iso skills to succeed at a high level.

 

[Kemba Time]

That assumes that you don't already know who your good shooters are or that coaches are magnanimously letting bad shooters chuck it up. The former is unlikely and the latter would only be likely if you were playing overmatched opponents.

it be interesting to take a deeper dive in the data to figure it out though.

Top 20 teams also play the vast majority of their non-conference games at home with a few neutral sites sprinkled in before playing half their conference games in (mostly) hostile road environments.

 

[Iluvsuebird]

I am not smart enough to understand those charts. My eyeballs tell me that Uconn has multiple scorers at any given time on the court, and that we have ample "spurtability". This is why and how we almost beat Kansas at Kansas w/out Castle and with Spencer hobbled, and why we keep beating OOC teams by double digits for two years now.

 

[bluestreak]

Does KenPom have a program to track chucking cutters? I think we'd rank higher on that one.

Getting open looks is step one. Hitting shots is step two.

 

[Excalibur]

Seems clear that the outliers on the downside are greater than the outliers on the upside; i.e. the bad is skewing the overall numbers more than the good.

What we do know is that we are streaky, but we can clearly win when we aren't shooting well.

 

[caw]

So just looking at three pointers overall.


First number is P6 games (IU, UT, KU, UNC, Zags), second is buy games
Main Shooters:
CS: 11/33, 23/41
AK: 11/33, 11/30
TN: 10/25, 9/29
SB: 7/16, 5/27
Total: 39/107, 48/127

Other heavy minute wings/guards
HD: 2/9, 2/6
SC: 0/3, 1/4 (5 games)
Total: 2/12, 3/10

Bigs:
DC: 0/1, 0/2
SJ: -/-, 0/1
Total: 0/1, 0/3

Freshman Wings:
JS: 0/1, 1/6
JR: -/-, 1/8
Total: 0/1, 2/14

Other: -/-, 2/7

The main 4 shooters are actually shooting it pretty well at 36.4% and 37.8% against top teams and buy games respectively. The rest of the team is pretty bad overall by percentage but don't take a ton.

 

[WNConn]

Karaban's injury and subsequent shooting funk are the primary reason for the low make percentage, I'm guessing

 

[gsmooth]

The 3's or Paint shot chart is part of it. The other part is emphasis on moving the ball without the dribble and constant motion of players off the ball. There's still a lot of ISO out there on other teams. Trying to get your star to beat his man and collapse the D. Even NBA guys revert to that at times.

Think back to the Ollie years and early Hurley years and fans here were griping about not having anybody who could beat their man. You don't hear that now, even though we probably don't have anybody except maybe Castle that can break down a defender one on one. Last year we didn't have a single guy who could except Sanogo and he had to get the ball in close for that. Yet our offense is elite.

So yes, running modern motion offense and emphasizing quality shots is fantastic preparation for the NBA. We also practice defending against it in practice. I think players are seeing it and UConn is going to become an absolute NBA pipeline. I think it also makes Hurley appealing to the NBA.

I gave you a like, but please bite your tongue.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I gave you a like, but please bite your tongue.

About what?

 

[HooperScooper]

About what?

The last sentence which he bolded.

 

[gsmooth]

About what?

click the "Expand...." link in my post where I quote you. You are putting bad vibes and juju in the atmosphere with the statement I bolded in your quote no matter how true it might be

 

[HuskyHawk]

click the "Expand...." link in my post where I quote you. You are putting bad vibes and juju in the atmosphere with the statement I bolded in your quote no matter how true it might be

It’s true. I think we’ve got him for awhile, but he is showing what they like to see

 

[gsmooth]

It’s true. I think we’ve got him for awhile, but he is showing what they like to see

I hope he stays for a while. But for coaches it's not just about money in and of itself-it's about the intrinsic things in his case that would be knowing he could succeed in the NBA. I remember a conversation I had with a older friend of mine at UConn when I was a high school student at E.O. Smith (high school in Storrs) in the mid 90s. During that conversation he said, "some of these college coaches never should think about leaving their jobs when they have it made" and he was referring to Coach K and Dean Smith when they were getting offers for the NBA and flirted with it. Not to say it would be a bad move for Hurley because he might very well be successful in the NBA, but he has it made at an prestigious top tier elite basketball school.

Anyways, I am going to leave my computer and put my hand in the sand and pretend this was never mentioned just to make me feel better, LOL.

 

[JohnFSilver]

The 3's or Paint shot chart is part of it. The other part is emphasis on moving the ball without the dribble and constant motion of players off the ball. There's still a lot of ISO out there on other teams. Trying to get your star to beat his man and collapse the D. Even NBA guys revert to that at times.

Think back to the Ollie years and early Hurley years and fans here were griping about not having anybody who could beat their man. You don't hear that now, even though we probably don't have anybody except maybe Castle that can break down a defender one on one. Last year we didn't have a single guy who could except Sanogo and he had to get the ball in close for that. Yet our offense is elite.

So yes, running modern motion offense and emphasizing quality shots is fantastic preparation for the NBA. We also practice defending against it in practice. I think players are seeing it and UConn is going to become an absolute NBA pipeline. I think it also makes Hurley appealing to the NBA.

I would argue that Newton is that break down player. When he started tj be that at the mid point last year team took off. Newton is the one player who can create his own offense.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I hope he stays for a while. But for coaches it's not just about money in and of itself-it's about the intrinsic things in his case that would be knowing he could succeed in the NBA. I remember a conversation I had with a older friend of mine at UConn when I was a high school student at E.O. Smith (high school in Storrs) in the mid 90s. During that conversation he said, "some of these college coaches never should think about leaving their jobs when they have it made" and he was referring to Coach K and Dean Smith when they were getting offers for the NBA and flirted with it. Not to say it would be a bad move for Hurley because he might very well be successful in the NBA, but he has it made at an prestigious top tier elite basketball school.

Anyways, I am going to leave my computer and put my hand in the sand and pretend this was never mentioned just to make me feel better, LOL.

To me, Hurley and nba makes sense if you go to a real spot that has a player. For example, Celtics come calling, 76ers, Nuggets. If the team has an elite talent, you do it.

Dont do the calipari/Pitino and think you can out coach nba guys. The players know.

Hurley would have to tone down sideline antics.

 

[CL82]

Hurley is well aware that his coaching style would not work well in the NBA. That doesn't mean that he wouldn't like to go there, eventually, it just means that he knows he has some work to do before he can seriously consider it.

 

[caw]

The 3's or Paint shot chart is part of it. The other part is emphasis on moving the ball without the dribble and constant motion of players off the ball. There's still a lot of ISO out there on other teams. Trying to get your star to beat his man and collapse the D. Even NBA guys revert to that at times.

Think back to the Ollie years and early Hurley years and fans here were griping about not having anybody who could beat their man. You don't hear that now, even though we probably don't have anybody except maybe Castle that can break down a defender one on one. Last year we didn't have a single guy who could except Sanogo and he had to get the ball in close for that. Yet our offense is elite.

So yes, running modern motion offense and emphasizing quality shots is fantastic preparation for the NBA. We also practice defending against it in practice. I think players are seeing it and UConn is going to become an absolute NBA pipeline. I think it also makes Hurley appealing to the NBA.

Overall you are probably right. Castle might be the only UConn player to really be able to take his man of the dribble one-on-one. Newton can at times. However, Newton and Cam are very good at driving off appropriate reads with Cam getting decent paint shots and Newton playing his own brand of bully ball. Karaban also does a decent job of beating a defender off the dribble on closeouts and efficient around the rim. The biggest shock this year for me are the reads Diarra is making to get to the basket off the pick and roll.

 

[caw]

Hurley is well aware that his coaching style would not work well in the NBA. That doesn't mean that he wouldn't like to go there, eventually, it just means that he knows he has some work to do before he can seriously consider it.

His style wouldn't but his playbook would, if tapered down a bit to fit the 24 second clock.

 

[husky429]

It’s true. I think we’ve got him for awhile, but he is showing what they like to see

The NBA doesn't like to see anything from college coaches at this point in time--it's a hard barrier to cross straight from college to an NBA HC job. In the last 15 years, Hoiberg, Donovan, and Stevens are the only ones to try. Hoiberg was a disaster, Donovan is about to lose his job, and obviously Stevens was a star.

Most guys are working their way up the NBA ranks directly now. G-league assistants, player development, etc. Like Daigenault did. Honestly, I haven't even heard of half the NBA head coaches. Whereas guys like Calipari, Hurley, Scheyer, Pitino, etc. are pretty household names for people who knows sports.

Billy Donovan is the only current NBA coach who went directly from a college HC job, and he only ever made it past the first round of the playoffs his first year. I'm not sure he's a sought-after coach by any means.

Considering the lack of job security, the different role as more of a manager, 82 games + playoffs and travel... I'm not convinced an NBA job is something Hurley wants. Or honestly, that the NBA will even want HIM.

He's also making more than plenty of NBA coaches and is darn close to average.

This article from 4 years ago was interesting. Donovan and Stevens are the only college-to-NBA coaches in the past 30 years to have a winning NBA record. A number of those guys were NBA players, and we're talking about 11 coaches total in the past 30 years.

TL;DR: I'm not buying it. The NBA doesn't want Hurley, and Hurley isn't suited for the NBA. There's remarkably little history of college coaches having success in the league.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Hurley is well aware that his coaching style would not work well in the NBA. That doesn't mean that he wouldn't like to go there, eventually, it just means that he knows he has some work to do before he can seriously consider it.

His coaching style is perfect for nba. You adjust to coaching adults. Big thing is sideline demeanor. He would also adjust.

But, as post above says, lifestyle is an issue and he is getting premium dollars in college. Doubt he gets that in nba.

 

[Palatine]

Lots of variables here. All NBA jobs are not the same. There are teams that get desperate all the time. It depends what job is open. The situation. I think DH would look differently the Knicks job than say Minnesota. That is true of the teams as well.

The situation at UConn could change. An antagonistic AD or some stupid blown out proportion incident could come up. Lots of variables.

And, of course, money will have its say.