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Alabama (25-11)
#12 in KenPom
63rd in D1 experience
276th in minutes continuity (26.2%)
34th tallest team in D1
#12 in KenPom
63rd in D1 experience
276th in minutes continuity (26.2%)
34th tallest team in D1
3rd in offensive efficiency
- 3rd in offensive tempo
- 9th w/ a 57.1 2P% (almost all 2P attempts are in the paint)
- 19th in 3PA/FGA (46.6%); 21st in a 37.1 3P%
- 23rd in offensive rebounding rate
- 25th w/ a 77.1 FT%; 98th in FT rate
- 102nd in TO prevention
- 143rd in A/FGM (46.6%)
104th in defensive efficiency
- 44th in A/FGM prevention (45.3%)
- 45th in opp 3P% (31.5%); 181th in 3PM/FGM prevention
- 92nd in block rate
- 163rd in steal rate
- 194th w/ a 50.7% opp 2P%
- 272nd in defensive rebounding rate
- 311th in opp. FT rate (lots of fouls)
- 350th in non steal/block turnover rate
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
Mark Sears 6’1 185 senior
- Second lowest rated defender
Aaron Estrada 6’3 190 grad transfer from Hofstra
Rylan Griffin 6’6 190 sophomore
- Lowest rated defender
Nick Pringle 6’10 230 senior
- Third lowest rated defender
Grant Nelson 6’11 230 senior transfer from NDSU
- Fourth lowest rated defender
KEY INJURIES -
Latrell Wrightsell - Head (day-to-day; missed last two games)
Nick Pringle - Heel bruise (hasn’t missed a game)
BENCH PIECES - 32.7% minutes (133rd in nation)
Jarin Stevenson 6’11 210 freshman
- Third highest rated defender
Latrell Wrightsell 6’3 190 senior - hasn’t played last two games; might start if healthy
- Second highest rated defender
Sam Walters 6’10 198 freshman
- Fourth highest rated defender
Mouhamed Dioubate 6’7 215 freshman
Mohamed Wague 6’10 225 senior transfer from West Virginia
- Top rated defender
The word on Illinois was all-offense, weak defense and Alabama is even more lopsided in that fashion. They’re an oddly configured roster: the starting lineup has its best offensive weapons, but worst defenders while the bench has the team's best defenders.
Not only is Alabama all offense: they are very particular in how they run their offense: fast with lots of three point attempts and shots in the paint. Case in point, here’s Alabama’s shot chart from last game:
Alabama’s head of the snake is Mark Sears, the First Team All-SEC star ranked as KenPom’s tenth most efficient offensive player in the nation, but also their second lowest rated defender, making him the perfect paragon of Alabama’s style. He’s an elite penetrator and incredibly efficient from the three-point line. The strategy against him is simple: Castle shadows him all day, the head of the snake is chopped off.
Mark Sears shares the point guard role with well-traveled guard Aaron Estrada. He is not as gifted on the perimeter (26.6 3P% in conference play), but is also a strong rim-attacker and is an excellent positional offensive rebounder.
Rylen Griffen is Alabama’s most potent perimeter weapon in the starting lineup, but is Alabama’s weakest defensive player, so whichever Husky he guards can feast.
Alabama’s starting frontcourt has two capable shot-blockers, but unimpressive defensive metrics. Nick Pringle splits his time between starting at the 4 and playing backup at the 5 alongside either Griffin playing up to the 4 or big 3-and-D forward Jarin Stevenson. A dangerous gazelle in the open court, almost all of his field goal attempts are in the paint as he hasn’t taken a single three all season. After an impressive junior season at North Dakota State, Grant Nelson has played solidly at Alabama and brings a lot of versatility on offense as his game reminds me a lot of Illinois’ Coleman Hawkins on offense, but brings none of the defensive versatility and isn’t as strong of an outside shooter as Hawkins.
Off the bench, the injury status of Latrell Wrightsell is huge. Missing the last two games with a head injury, Wrightsell is a part-time starter who plays starters’ minutes regardless where he plays. Wrightsell is a classic three-and-D guard who is Alabama’s best perimeter defender and is an elite spacer in the halfcourt. If he’s gone, it crushes Alabama’s guard depth and forces Griffin, a good shooter but much worse defender, to play a lot more.
Alabama’s frontcourt bench is the team’s best defensive unit. I’ve already mentioned Stevenson and the 6’10 Sam Walters is a similar player as both are long three-and-D forwards. Mouhamed Diobaute is Alabama’s glue guy, a physical, high-motor forward who is an excellent rebounder and, like Pringle, takes almost all of his field goal attempts from the paint. Mohamed Wague is a West Virginia transfer who is kinda like the anti-Alabama player: incredibly limited on offense (97% of his field goal attempts are inside the paint), but an excellent defender.
Alabama is such a weird team: they lost four of the last six going into the tournament, but have been able to score enough to outpace their opponents, so far. Clemson was their first tournament opponent whose offensive tempo was outside the top-70, so it would make sense that UConn’s meticulous halfcourt pace will keep the Crimson Tide at bay. Of course, a team like Alabama can get hot quickly, but if Wrightsell doesn’t play, that is one less spacer who can score in short order and open up the floor for Sears, Estrada and co.