WestHartHusk
$3M a Year With March Off
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
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The schools in the ACC > Big12.agreed, who the heck leaves? And to the ACC? No!
The schools in the ACC > Big12.agreed, who the heck leaves? And to the ACC? No!
Even if the next B12 contract is bad, would a school really jump to the ACC knowing that in <5 years you'd be left in a conference with BC, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and not much else?
Maybe. I really think Utah/BYU, Central Florida, Colorado, Iowa State, etc is going to age badly in a world where there is no PAC money ESPN wants to get rid of. I’m also doubtful all of Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, Duke, VPI, NCSU will have a landing spot. I think the East Coast leftovers will likely be a better base than Arizona State and Kansas State.Even if the next B12 contract is bad, would a school really jump to the ACC knowing that in <5 years you'd be left in a conference with BC, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and not much else?
Today yes. Tomorrow?The schools in the ACC > Big12.
Yes they were. It was definitely on the radar and was a major reason they took Louisville over UConn. They knew they could get us later, and they were right.
And again, as of now, the Big XII will be first on the chopping block. Kansas has desired BIG forever. And this would be BIG's one shot to dive into Texas or Arizona, or even the SEC to give Mizzou/Kentucky a partner with the Jayhawks.Today yes. Tomorrow?
As always, going to come down to pecking order.
when we see Big or Sec poaching from each other, we’ll know we have a crowned P1.
Until then, these two conferences will poach the remaining value in ACC and Big12.
Depending on what schools they take next will determine dogfight for P3.
SEC has been very deliberate in expansion, going after specific football powers in a specific geography. Big has expanded markets and geography.
If ACC can keep loss to 4 schools, it survives and probably plucks some Big12 schools: Cincy and WVU. 5 schools gets dicey. 6 or more to Sec or Big and ACC is toast
Interesting link:
Here are the once and future schools that spent time with P5 media money:
Notre Dame- $829 million in revenue from 2017-2021
FSU- $779 m
Louisville- $679 m
Kansas- $617 m
Clemson- $607 m
Duke- $592 m
TCU- $592 m
Miami- $578 m
Virginia- $554 m
Arizona State- $536 m
UNC- $532 m
Baylor- $514 m
Pitt- $513 m
Arizona- $505 m
Virginia Tech- $464 m
Syracuse- $462 m
NC State- $449 m
Colorado- $444 m
Oklahoma State- $443 m
Kansas State- $439 m
Utah- $435 m
Texas Tech- $430 m
BC- $425 m
Georgia Tech- $410 m
Wake Forest- $408 m
Iowa State- $391 m
ACC aligned average- $552 m
BXII avg- $439m
If an exodus of UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson happened, the ACC-aligned avg- $528 m
Really the ACC properties only start suffering in comparison to the BXII if you imagine Miami, Notre Dame, Duke, VPI, and NC State also find homes.
But the dollars are starting to get really big, and I think they will shrink in streaming,
The Washington State message board has threads on FOIA and the Sherman Act fwiw. Several people mad whenever their president speaks without an army of lawyers behind him.
Oh my Lord. Please take an Econ class.When has more competition resulted in lower prices?
Not in 2036.The schools in the ACC > Big12.
The Big XII has to get to 2036. Who knew Colorado would be what effectively ended a century-old conference. Anyone can bring down a conference when a GOR isn't involved.Not in 2036.
I'm going to get out of this stable canoe and step aboard a post-iceberg Titanic because it's more luxurious ... for the next 30 minutes.The Big XII has to get to 2036. Who knew Colorado would be what effectively ended a century-old conference. Anyone can bring down a conference when a GOR isn't involved.
Big XII isn’t stable. They are chock full of G5s. Kansas, Arizona, and Oklahoma State will at minimum be sending out feelers in a few years. They were given a lifeline as the PAC was destroyed and the transition to streaming is still in flux. But in the cold light of day, I can’t imagine Colorado, Central Florida, BYU/Utah will ever not look like panic moves.I'm going to get out of this stable canoe and step aboard a post-iceberg Titanic because it's more luxurious ... for the next 30 minutes.
The B12 schools aint going to the B10 or the SEC so I dont know who they're sending out feelers to.Big XII isn’t stable. They are chock full of G5s. Kansas, Arizona, and Oklahoma State will at minimum be sending out feelers in a few years. They were given a lifeline as the PAC was destroyed and the transition to streaming is still in flux. But in the cold light of day, I can’t imagine Colorado, Central Florida, BYU/Utah will ever not look like panic moves.
From a UConn perspective, The ACC is better. More regional opponents= more interest from your fan base. From a TV dollar perspective, I'm not so sure. Especially if we are talking about an ACC minus Clemson, FSU, UNC & UVA. That league might draw worse than a 35-year-old rerun of Murder She Wrote. If we switch to a streaming model, do things get much better? While Iowa State, K State, Kansas, and OSU might be low population states, they have dedicated fanbases that will pay to see their teams play. The ACC has a handful of schools whose fans probably would, and a larger amount that will go the way of Cal and Stanford fans. I'll go see us play our rival, after that if I can find the game with minimal effort I might watch. A Kansas Basketball Fan or KSU Football Fan isn't going to do that.The schools in the ACC > Big12.
Why? Because they get big TV ratings when they play, which means $$$ for the network. Once we have a successful football program—and/or maybe a superstar player that people want to watch—we might get invited to the cool people parties, too.ND has 35 years of a title drought and everyone kisses their ass.
Because they cannot prove collusion,When you see dollars like this, you have to ask why no one has sued the P4/ESPN/Fox for collusion in restraint of trade. The only reason these schools are getting this much money is because they are colluding with each other and against every other school. This is a simple, textbook anti-trust case in a segment of the market where the powers that be lose almost every time they are taken to court, and just got their butt kicked in the NIL case. What are schools like Oregon State and Washington State waiting for? At some point, not suing becomes a breach of fiduciary duty by those schools' leadership.
I am sure they have threatened lawsuits, because the G5 will get paid really well out of the CFP, and the majors wouldn't do that out of the goodness of their hearts. Maybe the shakedown is worth more than the lawsuit, and that is why no one has sued. But the dollars are starting to get really big, and I think they will shrink in streaming, meaning a lawsuit is worth more today than it will be worth in the future.
Interesting link:
Here are the once and future schools that spent time with P5 media money:
Notre Dame- $829 million in revenue from 2017-2021
FSU- $779 m
Louisville- $679 m
Kansas- $617 m
Clemson- $607 m
Duke- $592 m
TCU- $592 m
Miami- $578 m
Virginia- $554 m
Arizona State- $536 m
UNC- $532 m
Baylor- $514 m
Pitt- $513 m
Arizona- $505 m
Virginia Tech- $464 m
Syracuse- $462 m
NC State- $449 m
Colorado- $444 m
Oklahoma State- $443 m
Kansas State- $439 m
Utah- $435 m
Texas Tech- $430 m
BC- $425 m
Georgia Tech- $410 m
Wake Forest- $408 m
Iowa State- $391 m
ACC aligned average- $552 m
BXII avg- $439m
If an exodus of UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson happened, the ACC-aligned avg- $528 m
Really the ACC properties only start suffering in comparison to the BXII if you imagine Miami, Notre Dame, Duke, VPI, and NC State also find homes.
I’m not sure there is anything left in Big12 that Big or SEC would want.And again, as of now, the Big XII will be first on the chopping block. Kansas has desired BIG forever. And this would be BIG's one shot to dive into Texas or Arizona, or even the SEC to give Mizzou/Kentucky a partner with the Jayhawks.