AAC Tournament Bracket

[tcf15]

With UConn currently in 5th place and only 8 games remaining on their schedule, here's what the AAC Tourney bracket looks like:

In what could possibly be UConn's only way into the NCAA Tournament, UConn needs to remain in the top 5 of the conference to avoid playing on that first day.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I haven't looked at schedules but most likely SMU jumps Tulsa to get the #1 slot.

Assuming Tulsa falls to #2 then securing a #3 seed and jumping 2 spots would seem to help UConn.

Anyway if you keep this updated it would be a great thread. Thanks.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Give me the night game on Friday!

 

[tcf15]

I haven't looked at schedules but most likely SMU jumps Tulsa to get the #1 slot.

Assuming Tulsa falls to #2 then securing a #3 seed and jumping 2 spots would seem to help UConn.

Anyway if you keep this updated it would be a great thread. Thanks.

I do plan on updating every week or so.

I think one of the good things about our schedule is that 6 of the remaining 8 games come against the top 6 (1 vs. Tulsa, 2 vs. SMU, 1 vs. Temple, and 2 vs. Memphis). UConn, essentially, is in control of their own fate (in terms of conference seeding). Here's hoping they can take care of business.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I do plan on updating every week or so.

I think one of the good things about our schedule is that 6 of the remaining 8 games come against the top 6 (1 vs. Tulsa, 2 vs. SMU, 1 vs. Temple, and 2 vs. Memphis). UConn, essentially, is in control of their own fate (in terms of conference seeding). Here's hoping they can take care of business.

A first round bye and avoiding SMU (regardless of regular season results) until the AAC final would be the best scenario for UConn in my opinion. Love the thread because it gives real time perspective and shows there are still important games to play in order to position us for a favorable run into March Madness via the AAC tourney. A loss @ SMU and advancing to the AAC final and losing would probably still put us just out. If we run the table to the AAC final we are most likely an At-Large even if we lose that game to SMU. Just my gut telling me this off of what I perceive the bubble to be.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Is the American tournament going to rearrange the bracket to have UCONN play at night like they did for Memphis last year?

 

[tcf15]

Is the American tournament going to rearrange the bracket to have UCONN play at night like they did for Memphis last year?

E-mailed Dan Leibovitz, the Associate Commisioner for Men's Basketball and got a surprisingly quick response:

All of our coaches and ADs voted for a "true bracket" this year - not one that is flipped for TV, attendance or other factors.​

 

[ConnZag3]

It's crazy to think that with 2 wins this week this team is right back in the hunt for the conference championship. Tulsa has to come back to earth here at some point. A road win at Moody would be absolutely huge and could get us back on the bubble at least. The bubble is so soft that Davidson is in the first 4 out. Davidson...

 

[Kitaman]

Kinda of challenging for me to look at that chart and feel confident we can run the table.

This year every game has been a war, and that won't change in Hartford. Its just been that type of season.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Having the conference tourney at home this year is huge. I'm extremely confident that we can beat any of these teams in front of the home crowd in consecutive nights.

Keep the Faith - Go Huskies

 

[Matt1010]

Kinda of challenging for me to look at that chart and feel confident we can run the table.

This year every game has been a war, and that won't change in Hartford. Its just been that type of season.

Completely agree with you. Tulsa, @SMU, @Memphis, SMU and @Temple will all be tough games that we could easily lose. Hopefully the squad picks it up a notch starting tonight.

 

[CL82]

Having the conference tourney at home this year is huge. I'm extremely confident that we can beat any of these teams in front of the home crowd in consecutive nights.

Keep the Faith - Go Huskies

The key for us fans to pack the joint and be LOUD! We definitely can give the guys an advantage.

 

[tzznandrew]

A loss @ SMU and advancing to the AAC final and losing would probably still put us just out. If we run the table to the AAC final we are most likely an At-Large even if we lose that game to SMU. Just my gut telling me this off of what I perceive the bubble to be.

According to RPIForecast.com, if we won out, except @SMU, and then played the bracket above (unlikely, since 13-5 would almost certainly be better than 4-5...probably 3 seed...but oh well), the Selection Committee would see us as 22-11 team with an RPI of 32, a SOS of 38, and 7-9 vs. RPI Top 50 (10-10 vs. RPI Top 100).

Look at our competitors, and I think it would be hard for them to keep close.

What we need, though (and what we likely won't get): Memphis (RPI 98) to stay in the RPI 100 and Tulsa (48) to stay in the RPI 50. Those help make our metrics look better.

 

[ctchamps]

According to RPIForecast.com, if we won out, except @SMU, and then played the bracket above (unlikely, since 13-5 would almost certainly be better than 4-5...probably 3 seed...but oh well), the Selection Committee would see us as 22-11 team with an RPI of 32, a SOS of 38, and 7-9 vs. RPI Top 50 (10-10 vs. RPI Top 100).

Look at our competitors, and I think it would be hard for them to keep close.

What we need, though (and what we likely won't get): Memphis (RPI 98) to stay in the RPI 100 and Tulsa (48) to stay in the RPI 50. Those help make our metrics look better.

I love your analysis. Extremely intelligent. Since I don't have your mathematical skills, I'm just hoping UConn can win enough games and opposing teams that are on the bubble lose enough games to give UConn a chance to get into the tournament. And that starts this evening.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

According to RPIForecast.com, if we won out, except @SMU, and then played the bracket above (unlikely, since 13-5 would almost certainly be better than 4-5...probably 3 seed...but oh well), the Selection Committee would see us as 22-11 team with an RPI of 32, a SOS of 38, and 7-9 vs. RPI Top 50 (10-10 vs. RPI Top 100).

Look at our competitors, and I think it would be hard for them to keep close.

What we need, though (and what we likely won't get): Memphis (RPI 98) to stay in the RPI 100 and Tulsa (48) to stay in the RPI 50. Those help make our metrics look better.

Thanks...for the post and info.

 

[tzznandrew]

Since I don't have your mathematical skills, I'm just hoping UConn can win enough games and opposing teams that are on the bubble lose enough games to give UConn a chance to get into the tournament.

I don't have any. Just using a website I found last year (http://www.rpiforecast.com/) to do the math for me. Last year it was pretty accurate...although part of the RPI is opponents' records, and opponents' opponents' record, so I can tell it which games UConn wins, but it only makes mathematical averages of other wins to fill out the formula. I'd wager those numbers are about +/- 5 positions, depending on who upsets whom elsewhere in the country.

The main point is that, for all those counting UConn out, if they win games they're actually not in bad shape, and can probably drop one game (@SMU, SMU, @Temple, Memphis, @Memphis) and still have a solid shot at the tourney without the AAC.

 

[lange10]

God the houston loss killed our RPI

 

[ctchamps]

I don't have any. Just using a website I found last year (http://www.rpiforecast.com/) to do the math for me. Last year it was pretty accurate...although part of the RPI is opponents' records, and opponents' opponents' record, so I can tell it which games UConn wins, but it only makes mathematical averages of other wins to fill out the formula. I'd wager those numbers are about +/- 5 positions, depending on who upsets whom elsewhere in the country.

The main point is that, for all those counting UConn out, if they win games they're actually not in bad shape, and can probably drop one game (@SMU, SMU, @Temple, Memphis, @Memphis) and still have a solid shot at the tourney without the AAC.

Believe me I like these updates. They are informative. I'm just at that stage in my life where I'm trying to chill. Events will unfold whether I get hyper vigilant to potential outcomes or just let them happen. I'm not always successful but it's worth the effort to minimize my effort at impacting outcomes.

 

[ctchamps]

God the houston loss killed our RPI

We would have won that game if Nolan wasn't injured. I blame all the posters who have created and contributed to threads that threw him under the bus!

 

[amory]

I'd like to avoid Cincy and SMU in the first game, if possible. Hope we catch Tulsa.

 

[Caronimo]

3 seed for the Fri night game would be nice. Could be wishful thinking but a Friday day game at the XL Center probably wouldn't be much of a homecourt advantage.

 

[BoatShow]

Remember we were all crapping our pants about having to beat a tough Memphis on their court for the second time last year? I believe that we will win!

 

[Brochacho]

6 seed wouldn't be all that bad either. We would have all the late games, but the 6 seed would likely mean us getting swept by SMU, and probably losing to Memphis and possibly @Temple.

 

[4in16]

6 seed wouldn't be all that bad either. We would have all the late games, but the 6 seed would likely mean us getting swept by SMU, and probably losing to Memphis and possibly @Temple.

Except the 6 seed has to play an extra game on Thursday.

 

[CTBasketball]

If we beat SMU tomorow night, we're running the table. Put your bets down now. No, I'm not drunk.