3/8 Games to Watch for Seeding

[tzznandrew]

Now that Gonzaga has locked down a 3-seed, here are the results we should be hoping for today—by as large a margin as possible:

BET
St. John's over Butler
Seton Hall over DePaul
Villanova over Georgetown

OOC
Oklahoma State over Oklahoma

 

[UCFan1513]

I’m not sure the first three, or at least the margin of victory on those, matter all that much. If the thought it that St. John’s facing Marquette and Seton Hall facing Xavier would have a higher likelihood of an upset, then maybe, but I’ll take whatever team is playing better and wants it more to face off with Marquette or Xavier. At this point we should be comfortably above Xavier as long as we win tomorrow.

I also wonder whether Marquette losing first round to St. John’s and us winning out would be better than us beating Marquette round two. I’m not sure it’d move the metrics all that much in either case, but us winning the season series 2-1 may hold more psychological weight.

I think the only games that matter at this point are Marquette versus whoever they get first round (still super low likelihood of them losing), us vs. Marquette, and Tennessee falling flat on their face in either their first or second round game against Ole Miss/SC or Missouri. K State seems like a 3 lock at this point - losing to TCU first round of the B12 wouldn’t be an awful loss

 

[navery12]

I’m not sure the first three, or at least the margin of victory on those, matter all that much. If the thought it that St. John’s facing Marquette and Seton Hall facing Xavier would have a higher likelihood of an upset, then maybe, but I’ll take whatever team is playing better and wants it more to face off with Marquette or Xavier. At this point we should be comfortably above Xavier as long as we win tomorrow.

I also wonder whether Marquette losing first round to St. John’s and us winning out would be better than us beating Marquette round two. I’m not sure it’d move the metrics all that much in either case, but us winning the season series 2-1 may hold more psychological weight.

I think the only games that matter at this point are Marquette versus whoever they get first round (still super low likelihood of them losing), us vs. Marquette, and Tennessee falling flat on their face in either their first or second round game against Ole Miss/SC or Missouri. K State seems like a 3 lock at this point - losing to TCU first round of the B12 wouldn’t be an awful loss

Gotta think bigger picture. Seton Hall is 75 in NET, if they drop even 1 spot the win becomes Q3 and the loss becomes Q2. Villanova is 80 in the NET, if they're able to go on a run there's a chance a Q2 and Q3 win become Q1 and Q2.

The key to getting up to the 3 line is still going to be taking care of business ourselves this week, but any marginal gain is going to help given how many teams have a reasonable claim to a 3/4 seed

 

[UCFan1513]

Gotta think bigger picture. Seton Hall is 75 in NET, if they drop even 1 spot the win becomes Q3 and the loss becomes Q2. Villanova is 80 in the NET, if they're able to go on a run there's a chance a Q2 and Q3 win become Q1 and Q2.

The key to getting up to the 3 line is still going to be taking care of business ourselves this week, but any marginal gain is going to help given how many teams have a reasonable claim to a 3/4 seed

Good point didn’t think about it that way

 

[AdamaNation]

I’m not sure the first three, or at least the margin of victory on those, matter all that much. If the thought it that St. John’s facing Marquette and Seton Hall facing Xavier would have a higher likelihood of an upset, then maybe, but I’ll take whatever team is playing better and wants it more to face off with Marquette or Xavier. At this point we should be comfortably above Xavier as long as we win tomorrow.

I also wonder whether Marquette losing first round to St. John’s and us winning out would be better than us beating Marquette round two. I’m not sure it’d move the metrics all that much in either case, but us winning the season series 2-1 may hold more psychological weight.

I think the only games that matter at this point are Marquette versus whoever they get first round (still super low likelihood of them losing), us vs. Marquette, and Tennessee falling flat on their face in either their first or second round game against Ole Miss/SC or Missouri. K State seems like a 3 lock at this point - losing to TCU first round of the B12 wouldn’t be an awful loss

I think that our metrics being as high as they are, that even a bump in sos will do little to get us higher, aside from just winning against whoever we play.

 

[UConNick]

Not that it completely boils down to this, but our path to a 3 becomes much easier if we see:

1. The good guys win tomorrow and Friday
2. The Volunteers lose Friday to Missouri in the SEC QFs (and if they lose in the second round to Ole Miss or the Cocks, somehow, even better)

Think it’s more or less clear by bracketmatrix it should* come down to us and them.

*never rule out the committee doing whatever they want

 

[Inyatkin]

*never rule out the committee doing whatever they want

Hard to forget 2014 when we were a consensus 4/5 seed and ended up a 7. Worked out fine, of course.

 

[auror]

We're also going to want Oregon tomorrow. They're 47 in NET and cutoff for Q1 win on Neutral is 50, so that's a pretty big one.

For NET purposes, Nova and Oregon are our 2 biggest rooting interests.

 

[tzznandrew]

Gotta think bigger picture. Seton Hall is 75 in NET, if they drop even 1 spot the win becomes Q3 and the loss becomes Q2. Villanova is 80 in the NET, if they're able to go on a run there's a chance a Q2 and Q3 win become Q1 and Q2.

The key to getting up to the 3 line is still going to be taking care of business ourselves this week, but any marginal gain is going to help given how many teams have a reasonable claim to a 3/4 seed

Bingo.

We're also going to want Oregon tomorrow. They're 47 in NET and cutoff for Q1 win on Neutral is 50, so that's a pretty big one.

For NET purposes, Nova and Oregon are our 2 biggest rooting interests.

Yup. We'll be pulling for teams we played OOC, teams near the dumb cut lines, and against teams that are in direct competition with us for a 2-3-4-5 seed. We can assume we're not catching UCLA, Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, Houston, so where relevant, we pull for them.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Who are we looking to pass onto the #3 line?

Marquette, KSU, and Tennessee?

Marquette we can take into our own hands, though it still might not be enough.

 

[auror]

Who are we looking to pass onto the #3 line?

Marquette, KSU, and Tennessee?

Marquette we can take into our own hands, though it still might not be enough.

Zags winning makes it a bit tougher to pass them, but that's still potentially an option if we win the BET.

 

[UofCT]

I’d bet our seed and location is already locked

 

[navery12]

Gotta think bigger picture. Seton Hall is 75 in NET, if they drop even 1 spot the win becomes Q3 and the loss becomes Q2. Villanova is 80 in the NET, if they're able to go on a run there's a chance a Q2 and Q3 win become Q1 and Q2.

The key to getting up to the 3 line is still going to be taking care of business ourselves this week, but any marginal gain is going to help given how many teams have a reasonable claim to a 3/4 seed

Closing the loop on this, Seton Hall down to 77 but Villanova up to 72. This is probably the ideal 1-1 scenario in that we gain a Q1 win