Golden State is pretty safely in now. They’re got a +3 win lead over LA. Tough end to the season with the Liberty, Lynx x2, Storm, and Wings. I don’t think they’ll lose five straight though and wouldn’t be surprised if they get two wins or even three. Even just one more would get them to .500. Terrific feat for an expansion team.
Indiana could well end up as the #8 seed. I don’t think that’s a team I’d want to see there if I’m the Lynx. The Fever already beat them in the Commissioner’s Cup final without Clark and if she’s back for the playoffs, a three-game series could be risky for Minnesota.
Indiana’s had as bad of luck with injuries as anyone in the league this year with knocking out all three PGs and then Cunningham to boot who was having a great season. Definitely a “what if” year. But they’ll get another shot at it if they can keep Mitchell around.
I was looking over the Golden State, Indiana, Seattle, and Los Angeles remaining game and felt like 23 was the magic number of wins needed to differentiate between the 6, 7, and 8. Win greater than 23 and I think that'll be the 6 seed, win 23 and you'll be the 7 seed, and less than 23 will be the 8.
Golden State really only has one easy opponent left against the Wings, otherwise they play the Liberty, Storm, and Lynx twice. They could easily go 1-4 in their remaining game (finish with 22 wins), but I think they could win a few of those to get to 24 wins (go 3-2) IMO. Between 22 and 24 wins is my guess.
Indiana has four games left and two against easier opponents in the Sky and Mystics. Then they have the Mercury and Lynx. I think they go 2-2 (finish with 23 wins) but with their roster issues, they could go 1-3 as well. Between 22 and 24 wins is my guess.
The Storm have 3 games left and really no gimme games. They play the Sparks, Liberty and Valkyrie. One benefit is that they have nice spacing between their remaining games and that may give them the rest to power through those games. Honestly, the Storm are the biggest question mark. They could go 0-3 or 3-0, and both seem plausible. Between 22 and 25 wins is my guess.
The Sparks seem like dead women walking -- they're eliminated but just haven't realized it yet. They have six games left with only one gimme against the Wings. Otherwise they have the Storm, Dream twice, Mercury and Aces. Since 22 seems like the magic number, that means they'll need to go 4-2 to possibly enter a tiebreaker scenario. I highly doubt they win 4 games against the above teams. IMO they go 2-4 in those games, maybe 3-3. So, between 19 and 21 wins is my guess.
Anyways, this is my best guess:
6. Storm - 24 wins (2-1 in remaining games)
7. Valkyrie - 23 wins (2-3)
8. Fever - 23 wins (2-2, lose tiebreaker to the Valkyrie)
9. Sparks - 20 wins (2-4)
