2015-2016 Tournament Seed Predictions

[Matt1010]

The season is still months away but I am bored at work and trying to slack off until the long weekend. I recently read an article from a NCAAB analyst predicting the field and he had us as a 10 seed. This seems way too low given the additions of Miller and Gibbs but outside writers do not follow the team as closely as most BY posters (they also have substantially less bias). At this point I would predict we end up as a 4 seed. Thoughts?

 

[HuskyFich]

The season is still months away but I am bored at work and trying to slack off until the long weekend. I recently read an article from a NCAAB analyst predicting the field and he had us as a 10 seed. This seems way too low given the additions of Miller and Gibbs but outside writers do not follow the team as closely as most BY posters (they also have substantially less bias). At this point I would predict we end up as a 4 seed. Thoughts?

The AAC at this point has no credibility which is the reasoning we have such a low seed. But considering we can easily have 4 teams in the top 25 this year, I don't see the AAC being an afterthought much longer in the ranks of college bball. Especially since top to bottom has improved every year and will continue to get better (except Tulane)

 

[David 76]

I was thinking 3 or 4 but chose the 4-5 spot. We are ranked top 20 in the preseason. How does someone think we are a 10 seed?

 

[jfuchs91]

The AAC should actually be pretty good this year, and I'm a big believer in our talent. I'm thinking we'll deserve a 2-3 seed, but who knows how much impact the AAC will have. After all, Louisville got a 4 seed in 2014 despite being ranked in the top 5 in both polls.

 

[Matt1010]

I was thinking 3 or 4 but chose the 4-5 spot. We are ranked top 20 in the preseason. How does someone think we are a 10 seed?

I responded to the analyst bringing up the Gibbs/Miller transfers and how we should be much improved and this was his response: “I like those two additions for UConn. The problem is that they were a significantly worse team than people realized this past season. With their late run in the AAC tourney, people were talking about their bubble chances, yet they were ranked in the 70s or worse by most computer ratings. So putting them as a 10 seed is saying that they will be significantly improved." I do agree with those points but our team last year just didn't mesh and we were also one of the most "unlucky" teams in the country according to Kenpom. This is just one guys opinion so it really doesn't matter, but always fun to discuss.

 

[4in16]

I responded to the analyst bringing up the Gibbs/Miller transfers and how we should be much improved and this was his response: “I like those two additions for UConn. The problem is that they were a significantly worse team than people realized this past season. With their late run in the AAC tourney, people were talking about their bubble chances, yet they were ranked in the 70s or worse by most computer ratings. So putting them as a 10 seed is saying that they will be significantly improved." I do agree with those points but our team last year just didn't mesh and we were also one of the most "unlucky" teams in the country according to Kenpom. This is just one guys opinion so it really doesn't matter, but always fun to discuss.

Because as we all know last years teams performance directly effects this years.

 

[microfich]

I responded to the analyst bringing up the Gibbs/Miller transfers and how we should be much improved and this was his response: “I like those two additions for UConn. The problem is that they were a significantly worse team than people realized this past season. With their late run in the AAC tourney, people were talking about their bubble chances, yet they were ranked in the 70s or worse by most computer ratings. So putting them as a 10 seed is saying that they will be significantly improved." I do agree with those points but our team last year just didn't mesh and we were also one of the most "unlucky" teams in the country according to Kenpom. This is just one guys opinion so it really doesn't matter, but always fun to discuss.

Because as we all know last years teams performance directly effects this years.

Two buzzer beating 3's, an OT loss and another 1 pt loss made us 'significantly worse than people realized'? Aside from Boat, our best player was a mistake-prone frosh who improved, as did the rest of the team over time. I think we were significantly better than people realized, as was the top of the AAC.

Out Boat In Adams = small loss
Out Lubin In Enoch = minor gain
Out Samuel In Gibbs = major gain
Out Nolan minutes In Miller minutes = major gain
Other Returnees = plausible expected gains from Hamilton, Purvis, Brimah and Facey
Can only improve else no loss anyway = Calhoun, Cassell

If this gets us to only to a 10, I'll have had an appointment with my gastroenterologist.

 

[Kitaman]

Sorry but I need to do some fishing, play some golf, attend a few cookouts, go to a couple of weddings, concerts, go on vacation, etc... this summer/fall before I can answer.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

Two buzzer beating 3's, an OT loss and another 1 pt loss made us 'significantly worse than people realized'? Aside from Boat, our best player was a mistake-prone frosh who improved, as did the rest of the team over time. I think we were significantly better than people realized, as was the top of the AAC.

Out Boat In Adams = small loss
Out Lubin In Enoch = minor gain
Out Samuel In Gibbs = major gain
Out Nolan minutes In Miller minutes = major gain
Other Returnees = plausible expected gains from Hamilton, Purvis, Brimah and Facey
Can only improve else no loss anyway = Calhoun, Cassell

If this gets us to only to a 10, I'll have had an appointment with my gastroenterologist.

Please, this team sucked last year. I'm sorry. Heading into every game last year, I said to myself "OK, this is the breakthrough game", and they just consistently failed to live up to expectations. Their offense made me want to bash my head against a wall most of the time. Boatright is simply not a pure point guard who can carry a team on his back (Shabazz and Kemba). That's not a bash on Boatright, it's just not the type of player he is. Purvis was too inconsistent, Brimah too weak, Hamilton too inexperienced, and nobody else had a consistent role/stepped up when the team needed it. Also, the AAC was not good last year. The best team in the league couldn't even get out of the first round of the NCAA.

Next year's team will be drastically different. More options, more experience, more talent. Brimah will get to have a normal offseason (unlike last year), and Purvis and Hamilton have another essential year of growth. It's not as simple as replacing Boat with Adams, or Samuel with Gibbs, etc. Last year, Boat was our only reliable guard option, and really our only reliably consistent scorer. Next year, we have multiple options at guard. We simply have more players, and more experience overall. It won't even be on Gibbs or Adams shoulders next year because the team has so many options. As long as everyone has a defined role, and the team meshes and stays healthy, we could be watching them in Late March and hopefully beyond.

 

[David 76]

Please, this team sucked last year. I'm sorry. Heading into every game last year, I said to myself "OK, this is the breakthrough game", and they just consistently failed to live up to expectations. Their offense made me want to bash my head against a wall most of the time. Boatright is simply not a pure point guard who can carry a team on his back (Shabazz and Kemba). That's not a bash on Boatright, it's just not the type of player he is. Purvis was too inconsistent, Brimah too weak, Hamilton too inexperienced, and nobody else had a consistent role/stepped up when the team needed it. Also, the AAC was not good last year. The best team in the league couldn't even get out of the first round of the NCAA.

Next year's team will be drastically different. More options, more experience, more talent. Brimah will get to have a normal offseason (unlike last year), and Purvis and Hamilton have another essential year of growth. It's not as simple as replacing Boat with Adams, or Samuel with Gibbs, etc. Last year, Boat was our only reliable guard option, and really our only reliably consistent scorer. Next year, we have multiple options at guard. We simply have more players, and more experience overall. It won't even be on Gibbs or Adams shoulders next year because the team has so many options. As long as everyone has a defined role, and the team meshes and stays healthy, we could be watching them in Late March and hopefully beyond.

OK, What is your seed prediction?

 

[Stainmaster]

2 votes for "NIT/no postseason" -- has Chap returned from the Courant website?

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

OK, What is your seed prediction?

This team could go either way, it's extremely early. I could see them winning at least 21 games, which I think would probably put them in the 6-8 seed range, based on the lack of respect for the AAC.

 

[willie99]

The AAC at this point has no credibility which is the reasoning we have such a low seed. But considering we can easily have 4 teams in the top 25 this year, I don't see the AAC being an afterthought much longer in the ranks of college bball. Especially since top to bottom has improved every year and will continue to get better (except Tulane)

it's about committee membership, and nothing more than that

it's not RPI or SOS or OOC, it's not even about common sense or the eye test, it's all about whether or not you're represented (read protected) by a committee member

the numbers over the years are undeniable, it's so bad that it actually rises to the level of "beyond any reasonable doubt", but the truth just don't get any media play. Blaming it on whatever poppycock they can create plays a lot better for them

 

[Ts5034]

Its very hard to predict the seed and type of season we will have. The reason I voted a 4-5 seed is because of the conference. The AAC has gotten zero respect on Selection Sunday the last 2 years. Thats why in order to be alive for a 1-3 seed, we would would have to have less than 4 losses. Anything can happen but there are a lot of tough OOC games on the schedule.

 

[Matt1010]

Two buzzer beating 3's, an OT loss and another 1 pt loss made us 'significantly worse than people realized'? Aside from Boat, our best player was a mistake-prone frosh who improved, as did the rest of the team over time. I think we were significantly better than people realized, as was the top of the AAC.

Out Boat In Adams = small loss
Out Lubin In Enoch = minor gain
Out Samuel In Gibbs = major gain
Out Nolan minutes In Miller minutes = major gain
Other Returnees = plausible expected gains from Hamilton, Purvis, Brimah and Facey
Can only improve else no loss anyway = Calhoun, Cassell

If this gets us to only to a 10, I'll have had an appointment with my gastroenterologist.

Agree with everything you said except for Boat for Adams being a small loss. Like everyone else on here I expect big things out of Adams but that is a significant downgrade.

it's about committee membership, and nothing more than that

it's not RPI or SOS or OOC, it's not even about common sense or the eye test, it's all about whether or not you're represented (read protected) by a committee member

the numbers over the years are undeniable, it's so bad that it actually rises to the level of "beyond any reasonable doubt", but the truth just don't get any media play. Blaming it on whatever poppycock they can create plays a lot better for them

Do you have any stats or articles to back that up?

 

[Huskyforlife]

Agree with everything you said except for Boat for Adams being a small loss. Like everyone else on here I expect big things out of Adams but that is a significant downgrade.

Do you have any stats or articles to back that up?

Without boat we don't win 10 games last year. If Adams is even close to what he is, anything other than a championship would be a huge disappointment...

 

[TasteofUConn]

To the two guys who selected "NIT or no post season," please report to the front desk to turn in your fan card and get a throat punch from Fishy.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I actually think we'll have a better regular season than 2014, which should translate to a 4-5 seed.

That could get derailed early though if we don't gel quickly and win marquee OOC games in November and December. If we fall out of the Top 25 (polls or RPI), we're not going to get back in on the strength of conference play. Under that scenario, an ~8 seed is more likely.

 

[champs99and04]

People have to stop using the conference as a crutch. If Wichita State and Gonzaga can earn #1 seeds, so can UConn. UConn has ample opportunity to record marquee wins OOC, so if we aren't seeded where we'd like to be, it'll be because we either didn't win enough of them or didn't take care of business in the conference.

The conference hasn't been treated with a particularly gentle hand these past two seasons, but I still think some of the griping is overstated. The committee has proven time and time again that if you play in a mediocre conference, you need to take some scalps OOC to make up for it. Louisville as a four in 2014 was baffling, but you could at least see the logic - they didn't beat anybody OOC, and the AAC's computer numbers were terrible.

SMU missing the cut in 2014 was a page from the same book. Temple...they're the team that really got screwed in my opinion, but still, it isn't as if they didn't have opportunities to crawl their way in (they went 0-3 against SMU).

UConn was under-seeded by at least one line in 2014, but other at larges from the AAC that year (Cincinnati, Memphis) were seeded fairly.

It's different than it was back when we were in the Big East, make no mistake. Our margin for error is thinner - we can't blow major opportunities OOC and expect to make up for them against Syracuse, Pitt, etc. But most of the time, when we performed poorly OOC, it was because we weren't very good, independent of conference affiliation. This season, with a veteran team that should be starved to win, I expect it won't take them long to grab the nations attention.

 

[Hoophound]

The politics for UConn's seeding are different. Gonzaga and Wichita can get #1 seeds. The committee will discriminate against UConn. Who on that committee wants UConn in their bracket?

We will be under seeded until someone is there to stand up for us.

 

[UChusky916]

People have to stop using the conference as a crutch. If Wichita State and Gonzaga can earn #1 seeds, so can UConn. UConn has ample opportunity to record marquee wins OOC, so if we aren't seeded where we'd like to be, it'll be because we either didn't win enough of them or didn't take care of business in the conference.

The conference hasn't been treated with a particularly gentle hand these past two seasons, but I still think some of the griping is overstated. The committee has proven time and time again that if you play in a mediocre conference, you need to take some scalps OOC to make up for it. Louisville as a four in 2014 was baffling, but you could at least see the logic - they didn't beat anybody OOC, and the AAC's computer numbers were terrible.

SMU missing the cut in 2014 was a page from the same book. Temple...they're the team that really got screwed in my opinion, but still, it isn't as if they didn't have opportunities to crawl their way in (they went 0-3 against SMU).

UConn was under-seeded by at least one line in 2014, but other at larges from the AAC that year (Cincinnati, Memphis) were seeded fairly.

It's different than it was back when we were in the Big East, make no mistake. Our margin for error is thinner - we can't blow major opportunities OOC and expect to make up for them against Syracuse, Pitt, etc. But most of the time, when we performed poorly OOC, it was because we weren't very good, independent of conference affiliation. This season, with a veteran team that should be starved to win, I expect it won't take them long to grab the nations attention.

Please don't stop posting here. We need some rationality.

 

[willie99]

Agree with everything you said except for Boat for Adams being a small loss. Like everyone else on here I expect big things out of Adams but that is a significant downgrade.

Do you have any stats or articles to back that up?

yes I do, but I'll have to dig it up

I did my own research and posted it here with respect to 2015, after having read an article about such years earlier

 

[willie99]

The 2014-15 NCAA men's basketball tournament selection committee is chaired byUtah State AD Scott Barnes. He will be the one tasked with doing the television interviews and defending the 68-team field after it is announced on the Selection Show on CBS.

Barnes' Vice Chairman is Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione. He will serve as chairman for the 2015-16 season.

Here is a complete list of the rest of the 2014-15 NCAA men's basketball tournament committee:

• LSU AD Joe Alleva
• Michigan State AD Mark Hollis
• Conference USA associate commissioner Judy MacLeod
• Creighton AD Bruce Rasmussen
• Northeastern AD Peter Roby
• UNC-Asheville AD Janet Cone
• Stanford AD Bernard Muir
• BYU AD Tom Holmoe

----------------------------------

bubble teams that got in

LSU? just their AD was in the committee
UCLA? conference represented
GA & Ole Miss? that LSU AD was popular and powerful. I'm guessing that dude wined and dined everybody all year long.
TX? just the Vice Chairman getting more money for his conference
OK St? see TX
The commissioner was able to land 2 at large bids for his conference. I'm guessing he came close to securing 4 bids for the Mountain West, but had to settle for 3.
BYU? another AD
IN? Mich St AD

using Joe Lunardi's bubble teams represented on the committee were 9-1 in getting in. Every bubble team from every major conference which had representation on the committee made the tournament.

we're not about blue blood or blue chips, we're about blue collar

 

[mauconnfan]

Battle in Atlantis will tell us a lot. Good competition early to see if they can gel together. If they have early success in regards to chemistry who knows how successful the season can be. We've seen many UConn teams find some definition early in these types of events so it's going to be extremely intriguing.

 

[willie99]

a great example is 2006, when Mason went to the Final Four

two teams from the same conference were on the bubble, Hofstra and Mason
Hofstra had a better record than Mason
Hofstra beat Mason head to head in their only regular season meeting
Hofstra beat Mason in the Conference tournament
so Hofstra is 2-0 vs Mason head to head
their RPI's are within 4 of each other (26 and 30)

but Mason's AD was on the committee

Mason in, Hofstra out

rarely do you get such an obvious case