Your prediction: when the realignment music where does UConn end up ?

[CL82]

Has to happen - or else we'll end up with a P2 set up with just 30-40 schools....and that will make a lot of people unhappy.

Unequal revenue sharing is the start of the death spiral for a conference like the ACC. The Big Ten or the SEC might be able to get away with it because the lesser share would be greater than anything outside that conference.

 

[Exit 4]

Unequal revenue sharing is the start of the death spiral for a conference like the ACC. The Big Ten or the SEC might be able to get away with it because the lesser share would be greater than anything outside that conference.

I think a two tier revenue system is what will save the conf.

But it make take a while longer for the lesser schools to realize this and for all parties to figure out what that valuation adjustment shall be. Could be that a rather complex formula using tv ratings and other measurements is used to divide the media funds...possibly creating a band of conf payments that is more nuanced than a simple two tiers. IDK.

 

[CL82]

I think a two tier revenue system is what will save the conf.

Think about how that math is gonna work. Right now everyone makes, let’s call it $40 million. In order to meaningfully move the top teams closer to the big two money you’d have to take what half that away from the bottom tier teams. A differential of even $40 million between any two teams will make the lower teams non-competitive in short order. I just don’t see that is being sustainable within a conference.

 

[Exit 4]

Think about how that math is gonna work. Right now everyone makes, let’s call it $40 million. In order to meaningfully move the top teams closer to the big two money you’d have to take what half that away from the bottom tier teams. A differential of even $40 million between any two teams will make the lower teams non-competitive in short order. I just don’t see that is being sustainable within a conference.

I dont agree that in this sport having less money will automatically make you less competitive. There are already other disparities afoot; boosters, endowments, student fees, ticket sales, etc.

Schools like Wake, Syracuse, Oregon State, Washington State might not have a choice in this discussion. In the ACC it might become a very real discussion around 2030 when the end of the GOR is within planning distance.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I’d love to see us in some form of the ACC but I think we are staying put

 

[CL82]

I dont agree that in this sport having less money will automatically make you less competitive. There are already other disparities afoot; boosters, endowments, student fees, ticket sales, etc.

Schools like Wake, Syracuse, Oregon State, Washington State might not have a choice in this discussion. In the ACC it might become a very real discussion around 2030 when the end of the GOR is within planning distance.

Having a dollar less annually? Doesn’t matter at all. Having tens of millions of dollars less annually? You won’t be able to fund the shooting war of improvements and salary escalations that is major college sports. And that’s not just for the money sports. We saw a Michigan make a play for Penders. Eventually, when other schools are getting $100 million more in income annually, we are going to be in a position to fend them off unless we find creative ways to at least be competitive in annual revenue.

I’d much rather it be your worldview that is correct. I just don’t think it is.

 

[SubbaBub]

Best possible outcome. FB only member of a mostly still in tact ACC.

2nd Best: Full member of revamped ACC that includes the former BE schools plus ACC leftovers with as few other G5's as possible.

3rd Best: Stay right where we are.

 

[Exit 4]

Having a dollar less annually? Doesn’t matter at all. Having tens of millions of dollars less annually? You won’t be able to fund the shooting war of improvements and salary escalations that is major college sports. And that’s not just for the money sports. We saw a Michigan make a play for Penders. Eventually, when other schools are getting $100 million more in income annually, we are going to be in a position to fend them off unless we find creative ways to at least be competitive in annual revenue.

I’d much rather it be your worldview that is correct. I just don’t think it is.

Of course the amount of differential will matter tremendously. But lets be real, when the ACC starts talking about unequal pay outs to save the conf, it will be in a much narrower range than 100M to Clemson and 4M to Wake. It will be something much much much narrower...something more like 40M Clemson and 30M to Wake or whatever the situation is with their ESPN deal.

Again, the lesser schools aren't asking for unequal payouts, I just think that that is what will be on the table for heavy discussion in the years ahead. If Wake/Syracuse/BC/Pitt want to keep the ACC together with its biggest assets then it will have to be considered.

 

[RSTuthill]

I think at some point the P2's will start to eat their own when the top schools realize that the bottom of their conferences are not pulling their weight in the added revenue department. Then you will start to see some expulsions or relegations. But it will be only indirectly tied to W-L record.

 

[CL82]

Of course the amount of differential will matter tremendously. But lets be real, when the ACC starts talking about unequal pay outs to save the conf, it will be in a much narrower range than 100M to Clemson and 4M to Wake. It will be something much much much narrower...something more like 40M Clemson and 30M to Wake or whatever the situation is with their ESPN deal.

Again, the lesser schools aren't asking for unequal payouts, I just think that that is what will be on the table for heavy discussion in the years ahead. If Wake/Syracuse/BC/Pitt want to keep the ACC together with its biggest assets then it will have to be considered.

40 million is what they all make now. I would envision the difference being more like $60 million-$20 million.

 

[Exit 4]

40 million is what they all make now. I would envision the difference being more like $60 million-$20 million.

Yeah, 60 to 20 could happen. I just dont think it will be 100 to 4.

 

[RioDog]

Lots of interesting takes in this thread. It summons up a question that has been brewing in the back of my mind for a a while.

All of this CR stuff is about money. Got it.

My question is this: Is there a threshold of revenue beyond which the institutional/program advantage curve flattens out? In other words, all in, including NIL, fancy facilities, and luxurious coaching staff budgets, if my school gets 80 bazillion dollars a year, and yours gets 110 bazillion, does your school have any measurable advantage in terms of fielding a competitive football team?

I have to imagine there is some revenue level beyond which returns diminish to equilibrium across programs. If so, what is that revenue level?

 

[bobbyinaz]

I dont agree that in this sport having less money will automatically make you less competitive. There are already other disparities afoot; boosters, endowments, student fees, ticket sales, etc.

Schools like Wake, Syracuse, Oregon State, Washington State might not have a choice in this discussion. In the ACC it might become a very real discussion around 2030 when the end of the GOR is within planning distance.

While I disagree with you about the fact that having less revenues don't affect you competitively within a conference, I do agree that schools Cuse & BC probably have no choice.

It's schools like them that are desperately clinging to the GOR because they know that without it, they would quickly be on the outside looking in. At some point they will have no choice to take what they are given and be happy with it. I think it will happen before 2030. The new SEC & B1G contracts start in 2024 & 2025. As soon as those conferences announce their 1st year distributions to member schools of $75+MM or more, schools like Clemson & UNC that likely have options will start squawking.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Lots of interesting takes in this thread. It summons up a question that has been brewing in the back of my mind for a a while.

All of this CR stuff is about money. Got it.

My question is this: Is there a threshold of revenue beyond which the institutional/program advantage curve flattens out? In other words, all in, including NIL, fancy facilities, and luxurious coaching staff budgets, if my school gets 80 bazillion dollars a year, and yours gets 110 bazillion, does your school have any measurable advantage in terms of fielding a competitive football team?

I have to imagine there is some revenue level beyond which returns diminish to equilibrium across programs. If so, what is that revenue level?

It's become a crazy arms race and as long as there is money out there, the spending won't stop.

Does spending more on new facilities give a school an advantage?
Does hiring more (supposedly) better coaches and staff give a school an advantage?
Does a larger recruiting budget give a school an advantage?

While there are no 100% answer to these questions, I believe that over time more revenue absolutely provides a competitive advantage to a school and I'm not sure that there is a point of diminishing return. As long as 1 school can spend more than another the advantage remains

 

[CL82]

Yeah, 60 to 20 could happen. I just dont think it will be 100 to 4.

$100, million-$4 million is the differential between the projected big 10 media payout and the current Big East media payouts. I agree that I can’t see that happening within a single conference, but that is absolutely the magnitude of the problem we are facing. It’s staggering when you stop to think about it.

 

[Exit 4]

$100, million-$4 million is the differential between the projected big 10 media payout and the current Big East media payouts. I agree that I can’t see that happening within a single conference, but that is absolutely the magnitude of the problem we are facing. It’s staggering when you stop to think about it.

Well yeah- it’s been staggering and now it will be absurd.

Meanwhile those in the club now need to figure out how to stay at the table while getting a smaller plate. We are not really at the table- what we have is permission to visit the table with a toothpick while standing.

And so I would welcome that chance to drop the tooth pick and get the small plate with seat.

 

[CL82]

Well yeah- it’s been staggering and now it will be absurd.

Meanwhile those in the club now need to figure out how to stay at the table while getting a smaller plate. We are not really at the table- what we have is permission to visit the table with a toothpick while standing.

And so I would welcome that chance to drop the tooth pick and get the small plate with seat.

Agree. You do what you have to do. It doesn’t mean that I have to like eating out of the dumpsters though.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

I think at some point the P2's will start to eat their own when the top schools realize that the bottom of their conferences are not pulling their weight in the added revenue department. Then you will start to see some expulsions or relegations. But it will be only indirectly tied to W-L record.

The top needs the bottom to pad their records

 

[Waquoit]

Put me down for the not going anywhere camp.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I agree We’re in the B1G East. That was as much a fait accompli as you can get in the immediate future of realignment.
The only hope is that conference can set up a working arrangements with a S2 or P3 conference that gives UConn football a minimum number off games and preferred status for bowl eligibility.

 

[manbyrd]

We'll somehow end up in CUSA and they'll tear down the rent and build a brand new stadium in New London.

 

[ThetaZoo]

When this round of realignment ends where do you believe UConn will end up?

I believe that UConn will likely not get a golden ticket to either the B1G or SEC and will have the option to join a better version of the AAC with the leftovers from the ACC (BC, Syracuse, Wake Forest etc) and attempt to finance FBS football with escalating costs against the P2 teams, or reclassify football for financial reasons and stay in the Big East.

Your thoughts about where UConn ends up when this round of reclassification music stops?

If only we had someone to strong-arm ESPN and convince them that it's in their best interest to find us a safe and lucrative landing but, alas, I don't think anyone like that exists anymore.

 

[Husky68]

UConn stays in BE 'till late 2020's and establishes itself as a power football team. ACC implodes and SEC and Big10 take their choice of schools. UConn into Big10 off it's 2028 Football national championship season. Phone calls from Fruit, Spit, BCU and rest of ACC leftovers go unanswered.

This of course is all premised on1st winning more than one football game in 2022.

 

[ZooCougar]

When this round of realignment ends where do you believe UConn will end up?

I believe that UConn will likely not get a golden ticket to either the B1G or SEC and will have the option to join a better version of the AAC with the leftovers from the ACC (BC, Syracuse, Wake Forest etc) and attempt to finance FBS football with escalating costs against the P2 teams, or reclassify football for financial reasons and stay in the Big East.

Your thoughts about where UConn ends up when this round of reclassification music stops?

Freezing cold take.

 

[John]

ACC