bballnut90
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Warning: Very long post ahead.
As noted in another thread, it seems pretty locked in that the top 4 seeds will be UCONN, ND, South Carolina and Baylor, most likely in that order (ND/SC might be flip flopped). Out of those 3 teams, who presents the toughest matchup for UCONN? My thoughts are below, analyzed some components below
Guard Play:
Toughest team: Baylor. They have a very good point guard in Niya Johnson whose court vision is as good as anybody's in the country. She is a major liability as a scoring threat, which Geno will exploit, but she is rock solid at the PG spot. Jefferson has a solid advantage here, but I think her pesky defense is best suited against top scorers rather than top passers. I think Johnson still finds open teammates, but will have a harder time doing so. Alexis Jones is the reason why I put Baylor over the other two though. She is streaky, but she steps up her play in big games and has been absolutely phenomenal against ranked opponents this year. She can create her own shot, is lightning quick and a difficult matchup as a lefty. She does an outstanding job of getting into the lane and finding the open teammate. Jefferson might be better suited to defend Jones than she is Johnson, but we'll see what happens should they meet in the Final Four. Kristy Wallace is another guard who could be troublesome for UCONN. She stretches the defense and plays smart, hard nosed basketball. If she gets hot from the outside, it could open things up in the post for Davis and the freshmen.
Middle team: Notre Dame. They were a close 2nd for me. I think Lindsey Allen is the 2nd best point guard in America. She doesn't put up flashy numbers, but she is incredibly clutch, does a great job of running the offense and takes care of the ball. She has struggled against Jefferson so far in her career, so that's the main downfall for her. Michaela Mabrey is incredibly streaky but provides good leadership and has been a UCONN assassin in the past. She has an incredibly quick release and will need to be on for Notre Dame to stay on pace with Connecticut. Ogunbowale is a big wildcard, she is a big, physical and athletic guard who can shoot the ball, get in the lane and draws fouls. She had a nice game against Connecticut and has come on strong the 2nd half of the season.
Weakest team: South Carolina. Their guards are without question their weak point. Sessions is a good point guard and plays great defense, but she isn't a scoring option, and UCONN has exploited this badly. Tina Roy is a streaky 3 point shooter who is capable of lighting it up, but isn't as dynamic as Wallace/Mabrey/Ogunbowale, etc. Mitchell is great, but she is not having the same season she had a year ago. Her shot is smooth but hasn't been particularly consistent, and she has taken on a secondary role to A'ja Wilson this season. In big games, Cuevas typically does more bad than good for SC.
Wing/Forwards:
Toughest Team: Notre Dame. They have dead eye shooters in Marina Mabrey and Madison Cable. Both are good defenders and just play smart, efficient basketball. 50% from the field, 45% from 3, 80% FT, low turnovers and both averaging close to 2 steals per game, that's phenomenal. Both had great games against UCONN last time around. Add in Westbeld who is quietly an outstanding complement to Turner inside and a good finisher, and you have a very good crop of forwards/wings.
Weaker Team: Baylor. Wallace sort of floats in here as well, but the combo of her, Davis and Prince is very good for Baylor. Prince's shooting is off and on, but she is a good threat when she is shooting well. Wallace is rock solid as a G/F, and Davis is one of the more elite forwards in the country. She has done a great job of adjusting to the addition of Alexis Jones and playing more on the wing/perimeter. Realistically, Wallace is the wildcard here. Davis will be solid and get hers, Prince most likely gets shut down against UCONN.
N/A Team: South Carolina. This is a little bit of a weird one, because South Carolina's lineup is pretty much exclusively guards and post players. I still love when people think A'ja Wilson is a G/F, she is the epitome of a post oriented power forward, so I wouldn't classify her as a wing/forward type.
Post Play:
Toughest Team: South Carolina. South Carolina's posts have the size and bulk to contend with the likes of UCONN. A'ja Wilson has improved leaps and bounds from a year ago and will be named a 1st Team All-American at the end of the season. After a mediocre performance against UCONN a year ago, she played great in the 1st half this year and she is a big game player. Coates had probably the worst game of her career against UCONN last time around. She can only go up, although I wouldn't be shocked if she were to get shut down again. On the flip side of that, Imovbioh had a great game against UCONN last time. I don't see her going 6-6 from the floor in a title game rematch. As a unit, offensively I think they are better than ND/Baylor's posts. Defensively, I think ND's posts are the best, but SC's are better defensively than Baylor's.
Middle Team: Notre Dame. Brianna Turner was outstanding in her 1 game against Connecticut last April. She's been injured in the other two, but she presents a unique matchup with her length and quickness. She has a long way to go in regards to creating her own shot, finishing with contact and catching the ball (she has some of the worst hands for catching post passes in women's basketball), but more than anyone else in the country, I think she has the size, athleticism and skills to slow down Stewart. Westbeld will have her hands full against Tuck, but I think she's physically and mentally better suited to matchup against Tuck than Taya Reimer was last season.
Worst Team: Baylor. I initially put Baylor over Notre Dame here because their freshmen are more aggressive posts than Turner and they have great length inside. Brown is a handful, and Mompremier is lanky and a capable finisher. They'll be monsters next year alongside Davis and Lauren Cox, but they are freshmen going up against Stewart and Tuck. Major advantage UCONN.
Coaching:
Best Coach: Muffet. Easy pick here. She is an outstanding in game coach, she develops players as well as anyone in the nation and it really is incredible that Notre Dame has only 1 loss in March this year. 27? games in a row won in games decided by single digits. That is a reflection of outstanding coaching and having your kids mentally prepared in tight moments.
2nd Best Coach: Mulkey. She's done a phenomenal job at Baylor this year, and she seems to excel with an underdog type of team (ex. 2005, 2014). This team will be a major underdog to UCONN in a Final Four matchup, but she'll come out swinging and have her kids ready.
3rd Best Coach: Staley. I couldn't write worst coach, because Dawn has simply done an amazing job this year at South Carolina. She gets the bottom spot because her team was beat down pretty badly last year, and just wasn't competitive against UCONN this year. To beat UCONN, you HAVE to score and be able to run with the Huskies. South Carolina is a great defensive team, but I don't see Staley coming up with a particularly unique game plan against Connecticut and if they match up again, I'd expect a result similar to the last 2 games against UCONN.
Experience/Intangibles:
Most: Notre Dame. Their record in close games is amazing. Notre Dame has proven to be the best tight game program in women's basketball over the last 6-7 years. Allen and Cable are the backbone of this team, and both are incredibly experienced. Brutal schedule, good blend of youth and experience on this team. McGraw has come up with outstanding game plans against UCONN in prior seasons, I'd look for another one in a rematch.
Tie for 2nd: Baylor. They have a really great blend of experience and youth, but they just haven't played in Final Fours. They haven't played UCONN which could be a blessing in disguise if they match up with UCONN. I love how they've played against Texas this year in their biggest games of the season, and they have players capable of stepping up their level of play. Mulkey is also capable of putting together an outstanding game plan.
Tie for 2nd: South Carolina. They are also outstanding in close games. They have a slew of experienced senior guards, and Wilson is playing with the maturity of a top player this year. Coates needs to step up her game against UCONN and keep her emotions in check, but SC will be able to handle the big moment. Even though they obviously have more experience than Baylor, I think the losses they've had to UCONN the last 2 years will be difficult to shed from memory in a rematch. I also don't think they have the personnel to matchup with the Huskies.
Overall:
Worst Matchup for UCONN: Notre Dame. Their biggest hit against them is that they've now lost 5 in a row to the Huskies and all have been double digit losses. Only the title game last year was arguably competitive until the last 5 minutes, as the rest of the games were essentially over with about 10-15 minutes to go. That said, if it's a tight game, I guarantee every UCONN fan will be very very nervous down the stretch since Notre Dame is incredibly tough in close games. Notre Dame also has a knack for shooting well against UCONN, players have risen to the occasion in the past and if UCONN has an off night shooting, Notre Dame has a chance. Geno isn't one to stray from his game plan, going against UCONN, you know what you're going to get. Muffett is a masterful coach who is capable of coming up with a great game plan to counter Geno, so it will be interesting to see what she comes up with. I think they have the best chance to knock off the Huskies.
Middle: Baylor. No one on the roster has faced UCONN since 2013, so when they face UCONN, they don't know what they're getting into (for better or worse) compared to Notre Dame or South Carolina. If Jones has a big night and the freshman posts play great minutes, it could be a tight ball game. Baylor will need to play some of it's best basketball and get a little bit of luck, but I think Baylor could give UCONN a great battle.
Easiest matchup for UCONN: South Carolina. I think South Carolina would beat Baylor head to head and has a great chance to beat Notre Dame head to head, but if they play UCONN in the title it will be one of the more underwhelming title games. Matchup wise, South Carolina's lack of shooters means their posts get bodied up inside and they will struggle to score against UCONN. You HAVE to be able to put up giant offensive numbers in order to contend with UCONN. I just don't see SC switching it's style of play or Dawn coming up with a very different game plan in a title game matchup. More significantly, UCONN never gave SC a glimmer of hope in 2015 or this year. I'm not 100% sure all of the players believe they can beat UCONN.
As noted in another thread, it seems pretty locked in that the top 4 seeds will be UCONN, ND, South Carolina and Baylor, most likely in that order (ND/SC might be flip flopped). Out of those 3 teams, who presents the toughest matchup for UCONN? My thoughts are below, analyzed some components below
Guard Play:
Toughest team: Baylor. They have a very good point guard in Niya Johnson whose court vision is as good as anybody's in the country. She is a major liability as a scoring threat, which Geno will exploit, but she is rock solid at the PG spot. Jefferson has a solid advantage here, but I think her pesky defense is best suited against top scorers rather than top passers. I think Johnson still finds open teammates, but will have a harder time doing so. Alexis Jones is the reason why I put Baylor over the other two though. She is streaky, but she steps up her play in big games and has been absolutely phenomenal against ranked opponents this year. She can create her own shot, is lightning quick and a difficult matchup as a lefty. She does an outstanding job of getting into the lane and finding the open teammate. Jefferson might be better suited to defend Jones than she is Johnson, but we'll see what happens should they meet in the Final Four. Kristy Wallace is another guard who could be troublesome for UCONN. She stretches the defense and plays smart, hard nosed basketball. If she gets hot from the outside, it could open things up in the post for Davis and the freshmen.
Middle team: Notre Dame. They were a close 2nd for me. I think Lindsey Allen is the 2nd best point guard in America. She doesn't put up flashy numbers, but she is incredibly clutch, does a great job of running the offense and takes care of the ball. She has struggled against Jefferson so far in her career, so that's the main downfall for her. Michaela Mabrey is incredibly streaky but provides good leadership and has been a UCONN assassin in the past. She has an incredibly quick release and will need to be on for Notre Dame to stay on pace with Connecticut. Ogunbowale is a big wildcard, she is a big, physical and athletic guard who can shoot the ball, get in the lane and draws fouls. She had a nice game against Connecticut and has come on strong the 2nd half of the season.
Weakest team: South Carolina. Their guards are without question their weak point. Sessions is a good point guard and plays great defense, but she isn't a scoring option, and UCONN has exploited this badly. Tina Roy is a streaky 3 point shooter who is capable of lighting it up, but isn't as dynamic as Wallace/Mabrey/Ogunbowale, etc. Mitchell is great, but she is not having the same season she had a year ago. Her shot is smooth but hasn't been particularly consistent, and she has taken on a secondary role to A'ja Wilson this season. In big games, Cuevas typically does more bad than good for SC.
Wing/Forwards:
Toughest Team: Notre Dame. They have dead eye shooters in Marina Mabrey and Madison Cable. Both are good defenders and just play smart, efficient basketball. 50% from the field, 45% from 3, 80% FT, low turnovers and both averaging close to 2 steals per game, that's phenomenal. Both had great games against UCONN last time around. Add in Westbeld who is quietly an outstanding complement to Turner inside and a good finisher, and you have a very good crop of forwards/wings.
Weaker Team: Baylor. Wallace sort of floats in here as well, but the combo of her, Davis and Prince is very good for Baylor. Prince's shooting is off and on, but she is a good threat when she is shooting well. Wallace is rock solid as a G/F, and Davis is one of the more elite forwards in the country. She has done a great job of adjusting to the addition of Alexis Jones and playing more on the wing/perimeter. Realistically, Wallace is the wildcard here. Davis will be solid and get hers, Prince most likely gets shut down against UCONN.
N/A Team: South Carolina. This is a little bit of a weird one, because South Carolina's lineup is pretty much exclusively guards and post players. I still love when people think A'ja Wilson is a G/F, she is the epitome of a post oriented power forward, so I wouldn't classify her as a wing/forward type.
Post Play:
Toughest Team: South Carolina. South Carolina's posts have the size and bulk to contend with the likes of UCONN. A'ja Wilson has improved leaps and bounds from a year ago and will be named a 1st Team All-American at the end of the season. After a mediocre performance against UCONN a year ago, she played great in the 1st half this year and she is a big game player. Coates had probably the worst game of her career against UCONN last time around. She can only go up, although I wouldn't be shocked if she were to get shut down again. On the flip side of that, Imovbioh had a great game against UCONN last time. I don't see her going 6-6 from the floor in a title game rematch. As a unit, offensively I think they are better than ND/Baylor's posts. Defensively, I think ND's posts are the best, but SC's are better defensively than Baylor's.
Middle Team: Notre Dame. Brianna Turner was outstanding in her 1 game against Connecticut last April. She's been injured in the other two, but she presents a unique matchup with her length and quickness. She has a long way to go in regards to creating her own shot, finishing with contact and catching the ball (she has some of the worst hands for catching post passes in women's basketball), but more than anyone else in the country, I think she has the size, athleticism and skills to slow down Stewart. Westbeld will have her hands full against Tuck, but I think she's physically and mentally better suited to matchup against Tuck than Taya Reimer was last season.
Worst Team: Baylor. I initially put Baylor over Notre Dame here because their freshmen are more aggressive posts than Turner and they have great length inside. Brown is a handful, and Mompremier is lanky and a capable finisher. They'll be monsters next year alongside Davis and Lauren Cox, but they are freshmen going up against Stewart and Tuck. Major advantage UCONN.
Coaching:
Best Coach: Muffet. Easy pick here. She is an outstanding in game coach, she develops players as well as anyone in the nation and it really is incredible that Notre Dame has only 1 loss in March this year. 27? games in a row won in games decided by single digits. That is a reflection of outstanding coaching and having your kids mentally prepared in tight moments.
2nd Best Coach: Mulkey. She's done a phenomenal job at Baylor this year, and she seems to excel with an underdog type of team (ex. 2005, 2014). This team will be a major underdog to UCONN in a Final Four matchup, but she'll come out swinging and have her kids ready.
3rd Best Coach: Staley. I couldn't write worst coach, because Dawn has simply done an amazing job this year at South Carolina. She gets the bottom spot because her team was beat down pretty badly last year, and just wasn't competitive against UCONN this year. To beat UCONN, you HAVE to score and be able to run with the Huskies. South Carolina is a great defensive team, but I don't see Staley coming up with a particularly unique game plan against Connecticut and if they match up again, I'd expect a result similar to the last 2 games against UCONN.
Experience/Intangibles:
Most: Notre Dame. Their record in close games is amazing. Notre Dame has proven to be the best tight game program in women's basketball over the last 6-7 years. Allen and Cable are the backbone of this team, and both are incredibly experienced. Brutal schedule, good blend of youth and experience on this team. McGraw has come up with outstanding game plans against UCONN in prior seasons, I'd look for another one in a rematch.
Tie for 2nd: Baylor. They have a really great blend of experience and youth, but they just haven't played in Final Fours. They haven't played UCONN which could be a blessing in disguise if they match up with UCONN. I love how they've played against Texas this year in their biggest games of the season, and they have players capable of stepping up their level of play. Mulkey is also capable of putting together an outstanding game plan.
Tie for 2nd: South Carolina. They are also outstanding in close games. They have a slew of experienced senior guards, and Wilson is playing with the maturity of a top player this year. Coates needs to step up her game against UCONN and keep her emotions in check, but SC will be able to handle the big moment. Even though they obviously have more experience than Baylor, I think the losses they've had to UCONN the last 2 years will be difficult to shed from memory in a rematch. I also don't think they have the personnel to matchup with the Huskies.
Overall:
Worst Matchup for UCONN: Notre Dame. Their biggest hit against them is that they've now lost 5 in a row to the Huskies and all have been double digit losses. Only the title game last year was arguably competitive until the last 5 minutes, as the rest of the games were essentially over with about 10-15 minutes to go. That said, if it's a tight game, I guarantee every UCONN fan will be very very nervous down the stretch since Notre Dame is incredibly tough in close games. Notre Dame also has a knack for shooting well against UCONN, players have risen to the occasion in the past and if UCONN has an off night shooting, Notre Dame has a chance. Geno isn't one to stray from his game plan, going against UCONN, you know what you're going to get. Muffett is a masterful coach who is capable of coming up with a great game plan to counter Geno, so it will be interesting to see what she comes up with. I think they have the best chance to knock off the Huskies.
Middle: Baylor. No one on the roster has faced UCONN since 2013, so when they face UCONN, they don't know what they're getting into (for better or worse) compared to Notre Dame or South Carolina. If Jones has a big night and the freshman posts play great minutes, it could be a tight ball game. Baylor will need to play some of it's best basketball and get a little bit of luck, but I think Baylor could give UCONN a great battle.
Easiest matchup for UCONN: South Carolina. I think South Carolina would beat Baylor head to head and has a great chance to beat Notre Dame head to head, but if they play UCONN in the title it will be one of the more underwhelming title games. Matchup wise, South Carolina's lack of shooters means their posts get bodied up inside and they will struggle to score against UCONN. You HAVE to be able to put up giant offensive numbers in order to contend with UCONN. I just don't see SC switching it's style of play or Dawn coming up with a very different game plan in a title game matchup. More significantly, UCONN never gave SC a glimmer of hope in 2015 or this year. I'm not 100% sure all of the players believe they can beat UCONN.
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