Worst matchup for UCONN: South Carolina, Notre Dame, or Baylor?

[bballnut90]

Warning: Very long post ahead.

As noted in another thread, it seems pretty locked in that the top 4 seeds will be UCONN, ND, South Carolina and Baylor, most likely in that order (ND/SC might be flip flopped). Out of those 3 teams, who presents the toughest matchup for UCONN? My thoughts are below, analyzed some components below

Guard Play:

Toughest team: Baylor. They have a very good point guard in Niya Johnson whose court vision is as good as anybody's in the country. She is a major liability as a scoring threat, which Geno will exploit, but she is rock solid at the PG spot. Jefferson has a solid advantage here, but I think her pesky defense is best suited against top scorers rather than top passers. I think Johnson still finds open teammates, but will have a harder time doing so. Alexis Jones is the reason why I put Baylor over the other two though. She is streaky, but she steps up her play in big games and has been absolutely phenomenal against ranked opponents this year. She can create her own shot, is lightning quick and a difficult matchup as a lefty. She does an outstanding job of getting into the lane and finding the open teammate. Jefferson might be better suited to defend Jones than she is Johnson, but we'll see what happens should they meet in the Final Four. Kristy Wallace is another guard who could be troublesome for UCONN. She stretches the defense and plays smart, hard nosed basketball. If she gets hot from the outside, it could open things up in the post for Davis and the freshmen.

Middle team: Notre Dame. They were a close 2nd for me. I think Lindsey Allen is the 2nd best point guard in America. She doesn't put up flashy numbers, but she is incredibly clutch, does a great job of running the offense and takes care of the ball. She has struggled against Jefferson so far in her career, so that's the main downfall for her. Michaela Mabrey is incredibly streaky but provides good leadership and has been a UCONN assassin in the past. She has an incredibly quick release and will need to be on for Notre Dame to stay on pace with Connecticut. Ogunbowale is a big wildcard, she is a big, physical and athletic guard who can shoot the ball, get in the lane and draws fouls. She had a nice game against Connecticut and has come on strong the 2nd half of the season.

Weakest team: South Carolina. Their guards are without question their weak point. Sessions is a good point guard and plays great defense, but she isn't a scoring option, and UCONN has exploited this badly. Tina Roy is a streaky 3 point shooter who is capable of lighting it up, but isn't as dynamic as Wallace/Mabrey/Ogunbowale, etc. Mitchell is great, but she is not having the same season she had a year ago. Her shot is smooth but hasn't been particularly consistent, and she has taken on a secondary role to A'ja Wilson this season. In big games, Cuevas typically does more bad than good for SC.


Wing/Forwards:

Toughest Team: Notre Dame. They have dead eye shooters in Marina Mabrey and Madison Cable. Both are good defenders and just play smart, efficient basketball. 50% from the field, 45% from 3, 80% FT, low turnovers and both averaging close to 2 steals per game, that's phenomenal. Both had great games against UCONN last time around. Add in Westbeld who is quietly an outstanding complement to Turner inside and a good finisher, and you have a very good crop of forwards/wings.


Weaker Team: Baylor. Wallace sort of floats in here as well, but the combo of her, Davis and Prince is very good for Baylor. Prince's shooting is off and on, but she is a good threat when she is shooting well. Wallace is rock solid as a G/F, and Davis is one of the more elite forwards in the country. She has done a great job of adjusting to the addition of Alexis Jones and playing more on the wing/perimeter. Realistically, Wallace is the wildcard here. Davis will be solid and get hers, Prince most likely gets shut down against UCONN.

N/A Team: South Carolina. This is a little bit of a weird one, because South Carolina's lineup is pretty much exclusively guards and post players. I still love when people think A'ja Wilson is a G/F, she is the epitome of a post oriented power forward, so I wouldn't classify her as a wing/forward type.

Post Play:

Toughest Team: South Carolina. South Carolina's posts have the size and bulk to contend with the likes of UCONN. A'ja Wilson has improved leaps and bounds from a year ago and will be named a 1st Team All-American at the end of the season. After a mediocre performance against UCONN a year ago, she played great in the 1st half this year and she is a big game player. Coates had probably the worst game of her career against UCONN last time around. She can only go up, although I wouldn't be shocked if she were to get shut down again. On the flip side of that, Imovbioh had a great game against UCONN last time. I don't see her going 6-6 from the floor in a title game rematch. As a unit, offensively I think they are better than ND/Baylor's posts. Defensively, I think ND's posts are the best, but SC's are better defensively than Baylor's.

Middle Team: Notre Dame. Brianna Turner was outstanding in her 1 game against Connecticut last April. She's been injured in the other two, but she presents a unique matchup with her length and quickness. She has a long way to go in regards to creating her own shot, finishing with contact and catching the ball (she has some of the worst hands for catching post passes in women's basketball), but more than anyone else in the country, I think she has the size, athleticism and skills to slow down Stewart. Westbeld will have her hands full against Tuck, but I think she's physically and mentally better suited to matchup against Tuck than Taya Reimer was last season.

Worst Team: Baylor. I initially put Baylor over Notre Dame here because their freshmen are more aggressive posts than Turner and they have great length inside. Brown is a handful, and Mompremier is lanky and a capable finisher. They'll be monsters next year alongside Davis and Lauren Cox, but they are freshmen going up against Stewart and Tuck. Major advantage UCONN.

Coaching:

Best Coach: Muffet. Easy pick here. She is an outstanding in game coach, she develops players as well as anyone in the nation and it really is incredible that Notre Dame has only 1 loss in March this year. 27? games in a row won in games decided by single digits. That is a reflection of outstanding coaching and having your kids mentally prepared in tight moments.

2nd Best Coach: Mulkey. She's done a phenomenal job at Baylor this year, and she seems to excel with an underdog type of team (ex. 2005, 2014). This team will be a major underdog to UCONN in a Final Four matchup, but she'll come out swinging and have her kids ready.

3rd Best Coach: Staley. I couldn't write worst coach, because Dawn has simply done an amazing job this year at South Carolina. She gets the bottom spot because her team was beat down pretty badly last year, and just wasn't competitive against UCONN this year. To beat UCONN, you HAVE to score and be able to run with the Huskies. South Carolina is a great defensive team, but I don't see Staley coming up with a particularly unique game plan against Connecticut and if they match up again, I'd expect a result similar to the last 2 games against UCONN.


Experience/Intangibles:

Most: Notre Dame. Their record in close games is amazing. Notre Dame has proven to be the best tight game program in women's basketball over the last 6-7 years. Allen and Cable are the backbone of this team, and both are incredibly experienced. Brutal schedule, good blend of youth and experience on this team. McGraw has come up with outstanding game plans against UCONN in prior seasons, I'd look for another one in a rematch.

Tie for 2nd: Baylor. They have a really great blend of experience and youth, but they just haven't played in Final Fours. They haven't played UCONN which could be a blessing in disguise if they match up with UCONN. I love how they've played against Texas this year in their biggest games of the season, and they have players capable of stepping up their level of play. Mulkey is also capable of putting together an outstanding game plan.

Tie for 2nd: South Carolina. They are also outstanding in close games. They have a slew of experienced senior guards, and Wilson is playing with the maturity of a top player this year. Coates needs to step up her game against UCONN and keep her emotions in check, but SC will be able to handle the big moment. Even though they obviously have more experience than Baylor, I think the losses they've had to UCONN the last 2 years will be difficult to shed from memory in a rematch. I also don't think they have the personnel to matchup with the Huskies.

Overall:

Worst Matchup for UCONN: Notre Dame. Their biggest hit against them is that they've now lost 5 in a row to the Huskies and all have been double digit losses. Only the title game last year was arguably competitive until the last 5 minutes, as the rest of the games were essentially over with about 10-15 minutes to go. That said, if it's a tight game, I guarantee every UCONN fan will be very very nervous down the stretch since Notre Dame is incredibly tough in close games. Notre Dame also has a knack for shooting well against UCONN, players have risen to the occasion in the past and if UCONN has an off night shooting, Notre Dame has a chance. Geno isn't one to stray from his game plan, going against UCONN, you know what you're going to get. Muffett is a masterful coach who is capable of coming up with a great game plan to counter Geno, so it will be interesting to see what she comes up with. I think they have the best chance to knock off the Huskies.

Middle: Baylor. No one on the roster has faced UCONN since 2013, so when they face UCONN, they don't know what they're getting into (for better or worse) compared to Notre Dame or South Carolina. If Jones has a big night and the freshman posts play great minutes, it could be a tight ball game. Baylor will need to play some of it's best basketball and get a little bit of luck, but I think Baylor could give UCONN a great battle.

Easiest matchup for UCONN: South Carolina. I think South Carolina would beat Baylor head to head and has a great chance to beat Notre Dame head to head, but if they play UCONN in the title it will be one of the more underwhelming title games. Matchup wise, South Carolina's lack of shooters means their posts get bodied up inside and they will struggle to score against UCONN. You HAVE to be able to put up giant offensive numbers in order to contend with UCONN. I just don't see SC switching it's style of play or Dawn coming up with a very different game plan in a title game matchup. More significantly, UCONN never gave SC a glimmer of hope in 2015 or this year. I'm not 100% sure all of the players believe they can beat UCONN.

 

[geneticrex]

I agree. ND.

One thing people tend to overlook is, last year Turner had a good SECOND half against UCONN in the title game. In the second half, Stewart played on a tweaked ankle and anyone who has ever played b-ball on a tweaked ankle, knows it far more difficult to play defense.

 

[geneticrex]

Good long post though.

 

[Dillon77]

Excellent post and analysis, bballnut90. I'm very glad to see that you recognized the increasingly constant and solid contributions that Kat Westbeld is making at the high and low posts, along with her classmate, Brianna Turner. Smart player who understands what McGraw wants and rebounds and finishes well in traffic.

ND's record in single-digit games is great and the experience of that helps the players move forward in a positive sense (although it adds to the spreading of grey hair on my head). We'll need that against Baylor if we run into them, or other teams that can push us hard with effective offensive rebounding. Height hurts us, but active offensive rebounders (Louisville, FSU) are just as scary and effective.

My biggest worry with UConn: Stewart, and for these reasons:
First, she makes a profound impact everywhere on the court, from scoring inside and providing super weakside help on defense. But her ability to influence play between the elbows is vastly overlooked, from defending against passing lanes to snap passes around the arc, not to mention the mid-range jumper.
Second, she does not allow herself to get in foul trouble (super positioning and anticipation), so she's always around -- a serious plus when you're the best player in the game who is needed in big games!
Third, she makes everyone on your team better, in part-- yes -- because she draws so much attention, but also because you can tell how much she inspires younger players to, hey, be like Stewie (in terms of sweat equity needed to make yourself better.).

ND's play: You said it...Muffet's game plan and our ability to shoot well are paramount. If Turner can bother Stewart, great. But it will be offense that does this. We'll need the Mabrey's (streaky Michaela and solid Marina) to be on, Cable and Allen to be solid. But I think the wild card is Ogunbowale. She is a handle when she gets going...fast, powerful and relentless. It can get her in trouble, but when she rolls, she's like a female Vinny Johnson. Her confidence is growing off a strong finish in ACC play.

I've been watching these two teams for a long, long time and I think this version of UConn is particularly strong. But if you're a fan, you've got to hope for that one game where it plays out your way. Here's hoping to see the cards play out. Until then, good luck to both squads!

 

[UcMiami]

Interesting post.
I think it is a huge disadvantage to Baylor not having played not just Uconn, but any of these three teams this year. You can watch all the tape you want, can talk about the issues, but until you experience on the court what especially Uconn and ND bring to the table in terms of speed, intensity, offensive flow and defensive discipline you really cannot be prepared and it will be a shock. And it isn't just the other top three teams they haven't seen, the highest ranked teams they have played are DePaul (18) and USF (20) out of conference and the conference is a shell of what it was just a few years ago - TX is I think a 'weak' top ten team and OK and OK St are middling teams. Conference dynamics are interesting because of the frequency of play and familiarity. Baylor has owned that conference for a long time and that breeds its own confidence and intimidation - TX is just not read to compete against Baylor and it shows which is why I call them a 'weak' top ten team - I'll be surprised if they make the elite eight this year. They have wins against OK and OK St, and at TN (?) and home against MSSt and Stanford decent but not as good as they might have looked earlier. And for Baylor it isn't just this year but last year as well - ND in the elite eight was the only exposure they have had in 2 years to an elite level of team.

And yes, I question SC's ability to score enough. They are a tough team defensively, but with a former great PG as coach, I am surprised by the really conventional offense SC runs - it is either dump it inside or let Mitchell do her thing.

 

[Gabbyfan]

Despite the warning that this great post was a bit long, I believe this superb analysis left out something. What about the respective benches of these four teams? As the tournament progresses there is always the possibility of injury, fatigue, or bad match ups or foul trouble. Admittedly, the benches become shorter during t0urnament play, but there is an x factor in play here.

In Uconn's case, the bench is represented most likely by Gabby Williams and Napheesa Collier. Gabby is a human heat seeking missile whose mission is to disrupt offenses and inject energy with her rebounding ability, not to mention her ability to score around the basket. Napheesa is a reliable substitute who can block shots, find rebounds anywhere on the court and defend well. Do the other final four teams have anything comparable?

 

[UcMiami]

Despite the warning that this great post was a bit long, I believe this superb analysis left out something. What about the respective benches of these four teams? As the tournament progresses there is always the possibility of injury, fatigue, or bad match ups or foul trouble. Admittedly, the benches become shorter during turnament play, but there is an x factor in play here.

In Uconn's case, the bench is represented most likely by Gabby Williams and Napheesa Collier. Gabby is a human heat seeking missile whose mission is to disrupt offenses and inject energy with her rebounding ability, not to mention her ability to score around the basket. Napheesa is a reliable substitute who can block shots, find rebounds anywhere on the court and defend well. Do the other final four teams have anything comparable?

I think ND has a great bench, and the Baylor bench is pretty solid as well - SC, maybe a little more suspect because Cuevas just hasn't developed that much. We really are talking sort of seven man rotation issues because that really is about as far as most coaches worry about. And most of those names are already in the above discussion. ND bench is guard/wing oriented, Baylor and SC more forward/post as is Uconn's.

 

[Dillon77]

Despite the warning that this great post was a bit long, I believe this superb analysis left out something. What about the respective benches of these four teams? As the tournament progresses there is always the possibility of injury, fatigue, or bad match ups or foul trouble. Admittedly, the benches become shorter during t0urnament play, but there is an x factor in play here.

In Uconn's case, the bench is represented most likely by Gabby Williams and Napheesa Collier. Gabby is a human heat seeking missile whose mission is to disrupt offenses and inject energy with her rebounding ability, not to mention her ability to score around the basket. Napheesa is a reliable substitute who can block shots, find rebounds anywhere on the court and defend well. Do the other final four teams have anything comparable?

ND's most prominent substitutes are the freshmen guards/wings, Arike Ogunbowale (12.2 ppg) and Marina Mabrey (10.9 ppg). Mabrey provides stealing ability and can also help direct the offense when Lindsay Allen or her sister, Michaela, are not in. But her main asset is scoring, with long-range jumps and drives to the basket. Ogunbowale is, ummm, aggressive in taking it to the rim, with the full endorsement of Coach McGraw. She also has a nice touch from 3-pt. land. Defensively, ND will bring in Hannah Huffman to spell just about anyone but the point guard. She's there for defense, rebounding and ball movement.

 

[warbler1055]

Excellent analysis!! But on any given day, any team can and will have surprises, good and bad. Against SF, UConn trailed at the half. Against elite teams, couple of bad halves and you are done!!! It will be hard, extremely hard for UConn to win another championship. But my bet is on UConn.

 

[bags27]

Assuming UConn and ND meet in the Finals, another intangible is how hard they had to play two nights before and whether there is even the smallest let down (I very much doubt the let down, of course, but if a semi-final is close and exhausting it can play a role).

 

[easttexastrash]

Surprise, surprise! I'm going with Baylor. Johnson, Jones and Wallace are playing incredibly well together, and Prince is improving all the time after her lengthy layoff due to surgery.

Davis is crazy good and continues to amaze me with her ability to get her shot off against bigger players.

Baylor can go four deep at post and can play either big, banger type ball with Brown and Higgins, or go long and fast with Mompremier and Cave. I will take the Baylor post play over any team in the nation, and that includes South Carolina, simply due to the fact that Baylor can adjust to foul trouble more easily, as well as keep fresh players in the game at all times. And Cohen, who could be a starter at almost any other school, is not even getting playing time at this point just because Brown and Mompremier have adjusted to the college game so quickly.

 

[iamcbs]

Excellent post and analysis, bballnut90. I'm very glad to see that you recognized the increasingly constant and solid contributions that Kat Westbeld is making at the high and low posts, along with her classmate, Brianna Turner. Smart player who understands what McGraw wants and rebounds and finishes well in traffic.

ND's record in single-digit games is great and the experience of that helps the players move forward in a positive sense (although it adds to the spreading of grey hair on my head). We'll need that against Baylor if we run into them, or other teams that can push us hard with effective offensive rebounding. Height hurts us, but active offensive rebounders (Louisville, FSU) are just as scary and effective.

My biggest worry with UConn: Stewart, and for these reasons:
First, she makes a profound impact everywhere on the court, from scoring inside and providing super weakside help on defense. But her ability to influence play between the elbows is vastly overlooked, from defending against passing lanes to snap passes around the arc, not to mention the mid-range jumper.
Second, she does not allow herself to get in foul trouble (super positioning and anticipation), so she's always around -- a serious plus when you're the best player in the game who is needed in big games!
Third, she makes everyone on your team better, in part-- yes -- because she draws so much attention, but also because you can tell how much she inspires younger players to, hey, be like Stewie (in terms of sweat equity needed to make yourself better.).

ND's play: You said it...Muffet's game plan and our ability to shoot well are paramount. If Turner can bother Stewart, great. But it will be offense that does this. We'll need the Mabrey's (streaky Michaela and solid Marina) to be on, Cable and Allen to be solid. But I think the wild card is Ogunbowale. She is a handle when she gets going...fast, powerful and relentless. It can get her in trouble, but when she rolls, she's like a female Vinny Johnson. Her confidence is growing off a strong finish in ACC play.

I've been watching these two teams for a long, long time and I think this version of UConn is particularly strong. But if you're a fan, you've got to hope for that one game where it plays out your way. Here's hoping to see the cards play out. Until then, good luck to both squads!

The biggest worries for ND where UConn is concerned , the past 3 years and 5 meetings, has not been Stewart, it's been Moriah Jefferson's ability to defend ND's guards almost to the point of irrelevancy and ND's inability to defend Morgan Tuck. Lindsey Allen has been ineffective against UConn and that is a direct result of the defense of Moriah. ND has no answer for Tuck, she's too strong inside for Westbeld or Cable and too quick for either of them on the outside, Mabry is a liability on D, no matter whom she guards and if she's not hitting the 3 she's not a threat offensively. Stewart's length bothers Turner on both ends and Turner isn't a true post player. She exhibits no post skills, her paint scoring consists of lobs and transition layups, no drop steps, up-and-under, or hard posts for her. ND's a threat to UConn because they can score and if you want to beat Connecticut you must be able to score with them, however UConn defends at an exceptionally high level for 40 minutes, as they showed ND in last year's Natty and the 2nd half of this season's game.

 

[bballnut90]

The biggest worries for ND where UConn is concerned , the past 3 years and 5 meetings, has not been Stewart, it's been Moriah Jefferson's ability to defend ND's guards almost to the point of irrelevancy and ND's inability to defend Morgan Tuck. Lindsey Allen has been ineffective against UConn and that is a direct result of the defense of Moriah. ND has no answer for Tuck, she's too strong inside for Westbeld or Cable and too quick for either of them on the outside, Mabry is a liability on D, no matter whom she guards and if she's not hitting the 3 she's not a threat offensively. Stewart's length bothers Turner on both ends and Turner isn't a true post player. She exhibits no post skills, her paint scoring consists of lobs and transition layups, no drop steps, up-and-under, or hard posts for her. ND's a threat to UConn because they can score and if you want to beat Connecticut you must be able to score with them, however UConn defends at an exceptionally high level for 40 minutes, as they showed ND in last year's Natty and the 2nd half of this season's game.

If Allen can't get going, I don't see ND having a chance. She'll need to go toe to toe with Jefferson for ND to have a shot.

Turner is a better offensive player than she's shown, but in ND's offense she is utilized as a layup specialist. She played a lot more on the perimeter as a guard and actually has great handles for a post. In her one match up against Stewart a year ago, she put up 14 and her length (and an ankle injury) slowed down Stewart.

Ultimately though, it'll come down to guard play for ND. If their guards can light it up, they'll have a shot.

 

[bballnut90]

Despite the warning that this great post was a bit long, I believe this superb analysis left out something. What about the respective benches of these four teams? As the tournament progresses there is always the possibility of injury, fatigue, or bad match ups or foul trouble. Admittedly, the benches become shorter during t0urnament play, but there is an x factor in play here.

In Uconn's case, the bench is represented most likely by Gabby Williams and Napheesa Collier. Gabby is a human heat seeking missile whose mission is to disrupt offenses and inject energy with her rebounding ability, not to mention her ability to score around the basket. Napheesa is a reliable substitute who can block shots, find rebounds anywhere on the court and defend well. Do the other final four teams have anything comparable?

I tried including bench players since many of them log major minutes, but just grouped them in with the starter rather than differentiating. Notre Dame's bench is outstanding with the two super freshmen coming into the game. Baylor has their huge center Brown come in off the bench along with one of Wallace/Prince. SC has a very talented post in Imovbioh off the bench and the ever streaky Cuevas, as mentioned above.