Why is UConn giving up so many offensive rebounds..? Or are they..???

[DavidinNaples]

Recently, a number of Boneyarders got their collective knickers in a twist over the number of offensive rebounds by UConn opponents. In fact, as of today opponents have 224 offensive boards and UConn has 225. Why so close? Are we not boxing out? Is this a flaw in an otherwise great defense?

After exhaustive research and a consultation with the master of everything statistical (Phil), I have the following to report. Pay attention, it will all be on the test.

1. Every missed shot must have a rebound credited to a person or a team. Depending on who took the shot, it is either an offensive or defensive rebound.

2. There are 3 kinds of rebounds. Individual, "team" and "dead ball." Individual is easy to figure. Grab a missed shot, get credit. "Team" rebounds are credited when a shot misses, or is blocked, and goes out of bounds w/out anyone controlling it. "Dead ball" rebounds occur when a shot is missed while the clock is stopped. Like when the first of two free throws is missed. Only individual and team rebounds count in a team's total.

3. UConn has missed 576 shots this season. Opponents have missed 763. Therefore, opponents have had 187 more opportunities to get an "offensive" rebound. (If we get the ball, it is a defensive rebound, we have 557 of those kind.)

4. If UConn blocks a shot and the ball goes out of bounds, the opponent gets credit for an "offensive" rebound. UConn has blocked 161 shots. (vs only 41 by opponents) If 40% go out of bounds, that is 48 "offensive" rebounds credited to opponents who did nothing but get their shot blocked. If the opponent recovers a blocked shot, they also get credit for an "offensive" rebound.

5. If huskybill gets a rebound, it is called a miracle.

6. The Houston game is an example of how box score statistics can be misleading. Houston "out-rebounded" UConn 15-14 in offensive rebounds. But they missed 55 shots, UConn only missed 33. Lots more chances for them to get offensive boards. Plus 17 of the misses were blocked shots by UConn. If the ball went out of bounds or was controlled by them, another offensive rebound. Five (5) of their 15 rebounds in that game were "team" and many individual rebounds were off blocked shots.

So calm your palpitating hearts, UConn's defense is everything you think it is....and more.

Go Huskies..!!

 

[HGN]

Very good explanations and analysis.

 

[pap49cba]

Great post.

 

[meyers7]

5. If huskybill gets a rebound, it is called a miracle.

Must you really "stoop" to that level?

 

[VAMike23]

Recently, a number of Boneyarders got their collective knickers in a twist over the number of offensive rebounds by UConn opponents. In fact, as of today opponents have 224 offensive boards and UConn has 225. Why so close? Are we not boxing out? Is this a flaw in an otherwise great defense?

After exhaustive research and a consultation with the master of everything statistical (Phil), I have the following to report. Pay attention, it will all be on the test.

1. Every missed shot must have a rebound credited to a person or a team. Depending on who took the shot, it is either an offensive or defensive rebound.

2. There are 3 kinds of rebounds. Individual, "team" and "dead ball." Individual is easy to figure. Grab a missed shot, get credit. "Team" rebounds are credited when a shot misses, or is blocked, and goes out of bounds w/out anyone controlling it. "Dead ball" rebounds occur when a shot is missed while the clock is stopped. Like when the first of two free throws is missed. Only individual and team rebounds count in a team's total.

3. UConn has missed 576 shots this season. Opponents have missed 763. Therefore, opponents have had 187 more opportunities to get an "offensive" rebound. (If we get the ball, it is a defensive rebound, we have 557 of those kind.)

4. If UConn blocks a shot and the ball goes out of bounds, the opponent gets credit for an "offensive" rebound. UConn has blocked 161 shots. (vs only 41 by opponents) If 40% go out of bounds, that is 48 "offensive" rebounds credited to opponents who did nothing but get their shot blocked. If the opponent recovers a blocked shot, they also get credit for an "offensive" rebound.

5. If huskybill gets a rebound, it is called a miracle.

6. The Houston game is an example of how box score statistics can be misleading. Houston "out-rebounded" UConn 15-14 in offensive rebounds. But they missed 55 shots, UConn only missed 33. Lots more chances for them to get offensive boards. Plus 17 of the misses were blocked shots by UConn. If the ball went out of bounds or was controlled by them, another offensive rebound. Five (5) of their 15 rebounds in that game were "team" and many individual rebounds were off blocked shots.

So calm your palpitating hearts, UConn's defense is everything you think it is....and more.

Go Huskies..!!

Great post!

Didn't know that the offense gets credited for an O board on block recoveries or blocks out of bounds. Obviously does have a huge impact on these stats for a team like UCONN, as you point out.

 

[meyers7]

After exhaustive research and a consultation with the master of everything statistical (Phil), I have the following to report. Pay attention, it will all be on the test.

I found this if anyone is really interested.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/Stats_Manuals/Basketball/2013 Bsk Stats Manual easy print.pdf

 

[DobbsRover2]

So I think what you're saying is that UConn needs to stop blocking so many shots and should miss more shots to give them opportunities for more O-rebs so the worried UConn fans will stop worrying.

Good points. To compare to last year when UConn got 54% of the O-rebs accumulated in their games, there are two changes in stats that are hindering the Husky O-reb margin. First, the opponents' shooting is down to 30.1% from last year's 31.6%, giving them more chances. But the big factor is that UConn is having a block party with its 8.9 blocks per game compared to last year's 6.2. They will match last year's total by their 27th game this year at that rate, so there is a good chance that Husky fans will be gnawing on their worry towels for a long time to come.

 

[Tonyc]

Really great explanation

 

[UcMiami]

Good analysis - on a simpler level - if a team shoots 50% (Uconn) then for every 10 shots taken there are 5 chance to get an offensive rebound. If a team shoots 30% (average for all Uconn opponents), then for every 10 shots taken there are 7 chances for an offensive rebound. So in a typical game of say 60 shots for each team, Uconn has 30 chances to grab an offensive board and our opponent has 42 chances or 40% more chances. Of course this also works in reverse - Uconn has a much higher chance of grabbing a defensive rebound so they should generally win the defensive rebounding stat.

And of course this year I would say Uconn is playing zone much more frequently than in previous years and one of the difficulties in zone defense is boxing out because you don't have a specific player that you are supposed to be boxing out.

 

[ChicagoGG]

David, you are awesome! Thanks for a great analysis. Even I (who admittedly am not up on all the rules and regs) understood your post. Seriously, I never miss reading one of your missives. You rock!

 

[DavidinNaples]

David, you are awesome! Thanks for a great analysis. Even I (who admittedly am not up on all the rules and regs) understood your post. Seriously, I never miss reading one of your missives. You rock!

Chicago.....Thank you...my motivation comes from observing the stats master (phil)....as meyers7 has told me many times, "You excel at dumbing things down..."

 

[VAMike23]

I found this if anyone is really interested.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/Stats_Manuals/Basketball/2013 Bsk Stats Manual easy print.pdf

Good stuff, Meyers.

From this document I see that as long as the ball is already clearly in flight on a shot attempt, a FG attempt will still be charged even if a foul is called on the defender before the shooter returns to the floor. ('Act of shooting' and 'returned to the floor' is usually interpreted somewhat loosely by many refs....)

So for Sims' three-point shot where Bria "fouled" her..... ......and she received 3 free throws, she also should have gotten charged with a missed FGA. If she had gotten hacked going in for a layup, or on the arm while she was putting up the shot, then no FGA would be charged.

Useful info.

 

[Dennygrnn]

Small-minded Huskybill can't be bothered with rebounds - he has 3-point shooting to worry about

 

[Wbbfan1]

But your explanation doesn't explain how Nina Davis a 5'11" player for Baylor is able to grab 17 Rebound s ( 7 off 10 def). She was out hustling Stef and others to get the rebounds she did. UConn players also did a poor job boxing her out. With the exception of Kiah, this UConn team doesn't have players that are instinctively in the right place or have quickness to get to the right place to be a great rebounding team. The team defense IMHO inflates their rebounding totals and with that said it doesn't mean they are a good rebounding team.

Am I concerned about the rebounding totals, no as this team has enough offense and plays good enough team defense to win it all. It will take an exceptional shooting day and great defense by an opponent if this team is to lose this year.

 

[stamfordhusky]

The best measure of rebounding - which unfortunately doesn't seem to be readily available for women's games - is the percentage of available offensive rebounds and defensive rebounds that a team gets. On the men's side, the average is 31.5% at the offensive end and 68.5% at the defensive end.

UConn thus far this year is getting 36.2% of available offensive rebounds and 71.3% of available defensive rebounds. Both are good but likely not among the nation's leaders. On the men's side, it takes 40% of offensive rebounds to rank #10 and 37.5% to rank #30. At the defensive end, it takes over 74% to rank #10 and about 72.5% to rank #30.

As mentioned above, there are a lot of factors that contribute to these numbers. Blocked shots out of bounds have an effect. Teams taking a lot of long shots may have an effect since there are more long rebounds where boxing out doesn't guarantee a rebound. A team's coaching philosophy will also affect the stats since some teams make more of an effort than others to get most players back quickly on defense and not send many to the offensive boards.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Good stuff, Meyers.

From this document I see that as long as the ball is already clearly in flight on a shot attempt, a FG attempt will still be charged even if a foul is called on the defender before the shooter returns to the floor. ('Act of shooting' and 'returned to the floor' is usually interpreted somewhat loosely by many refs....)

So for Sims' three-point shot where Bria "fouled" her..... .and she received 3 free throws, she also should have gotten charged with a missed FGA. If she had gotten hacked going in for a layup, or on the arm while she was putting up the shot, then no FGA would be charged.

While that is technically correct, it is very rare for an official scorer to assess a FG attempt if the player ends up being given two (or three) FG attempts. For one thing, it eliminates a lot of judgement. Also it may seem unfair to assess a FGA if a player shoots just before taking a hard foul - where the accuracy of the shot may be affected by obvious contact about to happen.

 

[DavidinNaples]

But your explanation doesn't explain how Nina Davis a 5'11" player for Baylor is able to grab 17 Rebound s ( 7 off 10 def). She was out hustling Stef and others to get the rebounds she did. UConn players also did a poor job boxing her out. With the exception of Kiah, this UConn team doesn't have players that are instinctively in the right place or have quickness to get to the right place to be a great rebounding team. The team defense IMHO inflates their rebounding totals and with that said it doesn't mean they are a good rebounding team.

wbb....I wasn't trying to explain any individual players totals...but, I'll give it a try....
1. Nina Davis is a very good rebounder, at both ends of the court. She is tied for Baylor's rebounding lead w/ 125 for the season.
2. She has tried 0 three point shots, which indicates she stays "near the lane" most of the time at the offensive end. 46% of her rebounds are offensive.
3. Stef (170), Stewie (143) and Kiah (138) all have more than 125 rebounds this year. They are either good rebounders or very lucky, for 18 games in a row.
4. The game plan called for maximum attention to Odyssey Sims, including the "bigs" when she drove the lane. Blocks and "bad shots" resulted and Sims was 4-25 shooting.
5. No one else has had that much success this season rebounding against UConn. She may be an "outlier" not the proof that UConn is not a good rebounding team.
6. IMO UConn is a very good rebounding team.

Go Huskies..!!

 

[huskybill]

Chiago.....Thank you...my motivation comes from observing the stats master (phil)....as meyers7 has told me many times, "You excel at dumbing things down..."

This is just one more time when you have taken a Husky defect and tried to make it something good. And as usual, you've fooled a lot of people. Yes it is true that UConn blocks a lot of shots. And if the ball goes out of bounds, it's the other team's rebound and they get the ball back. But all Stef & Stewie & Kiah have to do is hit the ball to our team. Then they get credited with a block and one of our players gets another rebound. And UConn gets the ball; not the opposition.

And you have attempted to build yourself up by throwing me in the middle of your answer. You obviously never saw me play basketball. I was one of the dirtiest players out there. If a player grabbed a rebound near me I would jump up and elbow him in the groin or knee. After 5 or 6 hits, I'd start getting a rebound or two. Sure some of my teammates complained about being hit. So what. I only did it when we had no substitutes.

 

[DobbsRover2]

And you have attempted to build yourself up by throwing me in the middle of your answer. You obviously never saw me play basketball. I was one of the dirtiest players out there. If a player grabbed a rebound near me I would jump up and elbow him in the groin or knee. After 5 or 6 hits, I'd start getting a rebound or two. Sure some of my teammates complained about being hit. So what. I only did it when we had no substitutes.

I was wondering how MoJeff got all of those rebounds on Monday. You taught her well, HB.

 

[meyers7]

Chiago.....Thank you...my motivation comes from observing the stats master (phil)....as meyers7 has told me many times, "You excel at dumbing things down..."

Did I actually say that out loud??

 

[DavidinNaples]

This is just one more time when you have taken a Husky defect and tried to make it something good. And as usual, you've fooled a lot of people. Yes it is true that UConn blocks a lot of shots. And if the ball goes out of bounds, it's the other team's rebound and they get the ball back. But all Stef & Stewie & Kiah have to do is hit the ball to our team. Then they get credited with a block and one of our players gets another rebound. And UConn gets the ball; not the opposition.

And you have attempted to build yourself up by throwing me in the middle of your answer. You obviously never saw me play basketball. I was one of the dirtiest players out there. If a player grabbed a rebound near me I would jump up and elbow him in the groin or knee. After 5 or 6 hits, I'd start getting a rebound or two. Sure some of my teammates complained about being hit. So what. I only did it when we had no substitutes.

I am truly honored and humbled that you would take time from your busy day (making cookies) to verbally thrash me.... It was deserved and I readily accept it....in the future I will not throw you in the middle of my answers....only the end...you remain my favorite quasi-mythical BY character....

 

[DobbsRover2]

With the exception of Kiah, this UConn team doesn't have players that are instinctively in the right place or have quickness to get to the right place to be a great rebounding team.

You could be somewhat correct since UConn's rebounding margin is averaging 1.7 less than last year when they finished 4th in the nation compared to this year's 18th, however this is the time of year when many of the teams currently ahead of UConn will see their margins shaved quite a bit by tougher competition. UConn is actually averaging more rebounds than last year but the opponents have picked up about 2 themselves. But as David says, the opponents are shooting worse than last year and getting more opportunities, but most of the difference can be attributed to 2.7 more blocks for UConn than last year, with more out-of-bounds or shooter-retention rebounds resulting.

 

[VAMike23]

While that is technically correct, it is very rare for an official scorer to assess a FG attempt if the player ends up being given two (or three) FG attempts. For one thing, it eliminates a lot of judgement. Also it may seem unfair to assess a FGA if a player shoots just before taking a hard foul - where the accuracy of the shot may be affected by obvious contact about to happen.

How would you interpret Sims' missed 3PT attempt in light of the rules? FGA, or no...?

And are you saying that the scorer likely did not charge her with a FG attempt ?

 

[arty155]

...meyers7 has told me many times, "You excel at dumbing things down..."

Yes friends, as Boneyarder’s, we've always appreciated the uplifting message in David’s posts…

 

[huskybill]

I was wondering how MoJeff got all of those rebounds on Monday. You taught her well, HB.

This is the proudest moment of my life.