What percentage of college athletic departments will close up shop due to pay for play?

[shizzle787]

Let's assume for a moment that in next five years all college athletes will be paid at least minimum wage for all activities related to their sport (which I think is a really realistic assumption).


What percentage of athletics programs of four year schools (NCAA, NAIA, USCAA, NCCAA, ACCA) will close up shop?

What percentage of junior colleges athletic programs (NJCAA, NWAC, CCCAA) will close up shop?

My take is that fewer schools will drop sports than feared.

I expect at least 95% of Division 1 to keep sports. Many schools may downsize their ADs.

I am not sure about Division 2 but my best guess is that about 50% will keep sports at the D2 level, and another 30% will drop down to Division 3.

At the Division 3 level I think about 70% will keep sports.

I think it is very possible that all USCAA, ACCA, and NCCAA will drop sports.

As far as the NAIA, I think about 40% will keep sports.

At the junior college level, I think athletics will be a thing of the past.

 

[UConnJim]

Let's assume for a moment that in next five years all college athletes will be paid at least minimum wage for all activities related to their sport (which I think is a really realistic assumption).


What percentage of athletics programs of four year schools (NCAA, NAIA, USCAA, NCCAA, ACCA) will close up shop?

What percentage of junior colleges athletic programs (NJCAA, NWAC, CCCAA) will close up shop?

My take is that fewer schools will drop sports than feared.

I expect at least 95% of Division 1 to keep sports. Many schools may downsize their ADs.

I am not sure about Division 2 but my best guess is that about 50% will keep sports at the D2 level, and another 30% will drop down to Division 3.

At the Division 3 level I think about 70% will keep sports.

I think it is very possible that all USCAA, ACCA, and NCCAA will drop sports.

As far as the NAIA, I think about 40% will keep sports.

At the junior college level, I think athletics will be a thing of the past.

I think almost all schools will keep sports in some form. At the D3 level, participating in sports is one of a college's best recruitment tool for attending.

 

[dayooper]

My thought of the day. LT How will this affect the D2 teams, especially football who are made up of many walk-ons. Would a walk-on get paid or would you have to have an athletic scholarship to get your salary? If you need a salary, couldn’t a school just not give out many scholarships? D3 schools don’t give out athletic scholarships. Would they not fall under the ruling?

 

[Ldandy]

There's a 100% chance that you are pulling percentages out of your ***.

 

[Patman]

almost all of division 3, probably most of division 2... I'd say 20% of D1

I think almost all schools will keep sports in some form. At the D3 level, participating in sports is one of a college's best recruitment tool for attending.

they count on students paying admissions, not the other way around. That's where its actually pay to play... as you don't play if don't pay.

There's a 100% chance that you are pulling percentages out of your ***.

DIvision 3 sports will be done under this reality.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think there is a lot of excitement now among alumni and corporate sponsors to fund NIL now, but that excitement may wear off 5 or 10 years down the road.

I have a hard time seeing some of the prestige private schools run what is effectively a minor league team for long, without making changes.

 

[UConnJim]

I think there is a lot of excitement now among alumni and corporate sponsors to fund NIL now, but that excitement may wear off 5 or 10 years down the road.

For some athletes, sponsors will continue to line up for them to pitch their brands which was the original intention of NIL. Athletes like Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese, Olivia Dunne, Paige Beckers,... the brands get a very positive ROI. The NIL squeeze will probably come to mid tier players who are just getting a bag over the long run.

I think the bigger problem is money donated to NIL is cannibalizing donations directed towards an athletic department.

 

[ZooCougar]

I see two primary divisions.

College Sports Pro
College Sports Classic

They are exactly what you think they are.