Too much in here for me to fully digest. Sorry if I’m being redundant.
I still think there is dance that goes on between the NFL, NCAA and NBA. That dance changed with the payment to players. Previously, the NBA and NFL knew that they could pick off the best players whenever they were ready. While they still can, I would think they are watching carefully.
Should the power college teams continue to contract, I can see them morphing even more into a competitive professional league. Players are going to be considered employees some time soon. There are too many quality players for there to really be a P2. Nelson is right that they can’t have 40 person basketball teams and 300 person football teams. Players just wouldn’t do that knowing that they’ll never play and therefore, never go “real pro”. But what if the P2 treats the G(everyone else) as THEIR minor leagues. Transferring to a P2 can be done at any time, and you get 5 years to play 4 AT the P2 level. Heck, maybe they even drop playing eligibility altogether. Wanna play at Alabama until you’re 28? Go for it.
Another thing that could impact all of this is youth participation in football. Tackle football participation is declining. Couple that with a declining youth population, and maybe what I said above isn’t as true. Maybe there will need to be contraction because of a smaller talent pool. I can say, from first hand knowledge, that football is dying in my upper middle class town. The old timers still go to the game, and they complain about the team struggling against blue collar towns that still have better participation. But it’s not just the numbers. Between soccer and lacrosse, the best athletes are staying away from football. We still have a team, but the kids would never make it onto the soccer or lacrosse field.