UConn vs So. Carolina prediction thread

[RockyMTblue2]

I'll hold my guestimate until closer to the contest. I just note in passing that at home, against a far less than top 10 team SC got into serious foul trouble and scored very few very far from the basket in a game in witch the referees ignored the 3 second whistle on the SC offensive end. By the way, when he's home on his board the leghorn calls you all "arrogant." But keep liking his posts that ridicule tonyc...for whatever reason.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I agree, and I think everyone who has commented also agrees, that if UConn hits 3's the way that they have been hitting in recent games, a UConn loss is extremely improbable, and a blowout win is possible. But, as Geno has said on many occasions, accurate 3-ball shooting is not something you can take to the bank. If you depend on that to win games, you are going to lose some games to good competition.

So let me suggest this as a subtopic of this discussion: Hypothetically, if UConn is cold on its 3-point shooting in the South Carolina game (under 30%, let's say), how does UConn win? And by how much? I would say that under those circumstances, a win by more than 10 points is unlikely. I would also say that in that case, the transition game has to be running like a Swiss watch. Every defensive rebound by UConn has to at least threaten a runout and score. I think that is realistic, particularly if the Gamecocks "blitz" by throwing 3 or 4 players at the offensive boards. I don't think South Carolina is used to playing a full game at that pace, and UConn is quite capable of doing that. I think A'ja Wilson will get winded and become ineffective long before the end of the game, just as Duke's Azura Stevens did, if she has to run up and down the floor in that kind of a game.

The transition game may be the Huskies' ace in the hole.

Duke was on the verge of beating SC in the waning seconds of their encounter earlier in the year despite the fact that they shot the ball horribly. Dukes defense played quite well in that game but UConn has an appreciably better defense than Duke and the likelihood that the Huskies would ever shoot the ball as badly as Duke, considering the fact that they have much better and more seasoned players than Duke is hard to fathom. What is there to suggest that even if UConn played a less than stellar game on the offensive end, that they wouldn't still beat SC? I personally think UConn would probably beat SC EVEN if they played as badly as they did in November at Stanford and I don't see that happening at all. Their defensive play has improved quite dramatically and only the worst officiating in the world can possibly keep this game close.

 

[Willie E.Gold]

No contest,another traditional win for UConn by 18 or more.

 

[Icebear]

CT by 22

 

[Sonny44]

It is hard to compare So. Carolina to UConn on a player by player basis because Dawn has 10 players playing double digits minutes and Geno has 9 players getting double digit minutes... Let's face it...Dawn has Wilson, Coates and Cuevas coming off the bench and everyone knows that both Coates and Wilson should be starting. South Carolina is a different team with both of them on the floor. However, it is always interesting to look at the game from a potential player by player match-up.

South Carolina

5'9" Jr. (G) - Tiffany Mitchell (27.7 min) - 15.3 points / game
6'5" Fr. (G/F) - A'ja Wilson (21.4 min) - 13.6 points / game
6'4" So. (C) - Alaina Coates (20.5 min) - 11.1 points / game
6'0" Sr. (F) - Aleighsa Welch (24.9 min) - 9.6 points / game
6'4" Sr. (C) - Elem Ibiam (17.6 min) - 7.1 points / game
5'6" Fr. (G) - Bianca Cuevas (14.3 min) - 5.4 points / game
6'0" Jr. (G/F) - Asia Dozier (16.7 min) - 4.5 points / game
5'11" Jr. (G) - Tina Roy (15.6 min) - 4.5 points / game
5'8" Jr. (G) - Khadijah Sessions (21.2 min) - 3.8 points / game
6'4" - F (F) - Jatarie White (10.8 min) - 3/6 points / game

70.8 poins

UConn

6'4" Jr. (F) - Breanna Stewart (27.9 min) - 16.9 points / game
5'11" Sr. (F) - Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis (28.1 min) - 14.7 points / game
6'2" So. (F) - Morgan Tuck (25.3 min) - 14.4 points / game
6'0" Fr (G) - Kia Nurse (24.5 min) - 11.9 points / game
5'7" Jr. (G) - Moriah Jefferson (26.6 min) - 11.7 points / game
5'11" Fr. (G) - Gabby Williams (16.4 min) - 8.2 points / game
5'8" So. (G) - Saniya Chong (20.3 min) - 5.8 points / game
6'3" Sr. (C) - Kiah Stokes (20.7 min) - 5.4 points / game
6.0 Fr. (G) - Courtney Ekmark (14.2 min) - 2.2 points / game

90.4 points

We know that both Geno and Dawn will shorten their bench during tight games and that key players will play more minutes so, the keys will be: 1. Which key players on each team steps up and has a good day? 2. Which players will have a bad scoring day? 3. Which players will get into foul trouble and when in the game does that occur?

Dawn's team is big with 4 players 6'4" or bigger. Geno's team at this point in the season is farther along offensively than Dawn's. Both teams have great team defense...UConn is number 2 while South Carolina is number 8. Dawn's team is not that good from the FT line .673...that is the good news, however, the bad news is...they get to the line more (282 - 419) than UConn does (227 - 230). UConn is a better three point shooting team with numerous players who can shoot the three: Stewart, Lewis, Tuck, Nurse, Jefferson, Chong - (163-397 or .411). South Carolina has the three in their arsenal but they have less people who shoot them and they make them less frequently: Mitchell, Roy and Dozier - (99 - 280 or .354).

Match-ups

Tiffany Mitchell vs Kia Nurse - Kia will have her hands full with Tiffany. Tiffany is a versatile guard who can handle, shoot the three, pull up for the mid-range jumper and she can defend. It can be argued that Tiffany is Dawn's best all around player. Tiffany has three years experience at the college level but we have seen that Kia plays beyond her years. I think Kia does a decent job defending Tiffany but at the end of the day I think the ADVANTAGE lies with Tiffany.

Khadijah Sessions vs Moriah Jefferson - Moriah is playing other worldly now and Dawn will have to play Moriah by committee...I think we will see Khadijah, Bianca Cuevas and Asia Dozier all taking a crack at containing Moriah. Moriah will be disruptive on the defensive end and I think Moriah will control tempo and keep her turnovers low giving the ADVANTAGE to Moriah

Aleighsa Welch vs Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis - Aleighsa is Dawn's spark-plug and I look for her to be all over KML...draped on her like a wet blanket...as Dawn tries to "cut off the head". How successful will UConn be setting screens to free KML and how successful will KML be in creating her own shot. I say this match-up will be somewhat EVEN unless KML can find a way to get her shots...if she does then ADVANTAGE will shift towards UConn

A'ja Wilson vs Breanna Stewart - this should be an interesting match-up. It could result in either one of them getting into foul trouble. Breanna because of A'ja's size and mobility and A'ja because of Breanna's size and mobility. Breanna has more experience at this level and that should count for something but we have seen Breanna pick up unnecessary fouls. We will need her on the floor and out of foul trouble. Breanna will need to play both inside and outside...bring A'ja outside with her to free up the middle for others to rebound. Given Breanna's experience, her ability to score and the absolute nightmare she presents to opposing teams I think she has a great game. I would say ADVANTAGE goes to Breanna with A'ja being the one who ends up in foul trouble.

Alaina Coates vs Tuck - Now this will be an great match-up. Both players are very mobile in the post. While Tuck has a plethora of post moves and is more polished Coates is an absolute beast with strength, size and soft hands inside. I think we have a similar situation here as we have in the previous match-up either on of these players could end up in foul trouble. We are thinner at the post than So. Carolina is but with Stokes coming in to spell either Stewart or Tuck should they get in foul trouble what we lose in scoring power we make up for in defense. Stokes ability to rebound and block shots may be more on demand in this game and we must remember that Stokes seems to deliver when she is needed. But, back to the Coates vs Tuck match-up...I'm going to call this one SLIGHT ADVANTAGE Tuck.

Bench - South Carolina has a very deep bench and Geno will not go that deep into his bench. With Gabby and Saniya getting limited minutes and the rest of the crew possibly not playing at all...I give the ADVANTAGE to South Carolina.

Coaching - I think Staley is a great coach, I just think Geno and staff are better. The entire WCBB world seems to be in a hurry to crown Staley as Geno's successor as the premier women's basketball coach but I think those notions are premature. I give the coaching ADVANTAGE to UConn.

Intangibles - Home court, crowd, etc... ADVANTAGE UConn

UConn by 9: 83 - 74

You are predicting SCU will score more points against us than they average? What team has ever done that in the last 20 years?

UCONN 83
SCU. 63

 

[EricLA]

I'll hold my guestimate until closer to the contest. I just note in passing that at home, against a far less than top 10 team SC got into serious foul trouble and scored very few very far from the basket in a game in witch the referees ignored the 3 second whistle on the SC offensive end. By the way, when he's home on his board the leghorn calls you all "arrogant." But keep liking his posts that ridicule tonyc...for whatever reason.

how about if you reserve the right to change your estimate?!

My point is a lot can change even over the course of a few weeks. Case in point - Gabby was getting good minutes then suddenly the SJU game was sort of tough and she got only 2 minutes. Chong was also getting good PT and then bam... SJU and she gets 6 minutes. Only Stokes got close to 20 minutes (19).

Since then UCONN has had super easy games and Chong and Williams have gotten LOTS of PT. BUT how will they fare against a team like SC? I think that's a fair question.

So a lot changed for them in a few weeks. And a lot can change in the next few weeks as well...

 

[chrissaran]

Kia's experience as the starting point guard on Canada's national team negates Mitchell's experience. Kia does not make a lot of mistakes, and she is very strong, as can be seen when she drives to the basket, takes contact and still makes the shot. UConn has to stay out of foul trouble, control the defensive boards and limit the turnovers, no wasted trips down the floor. UConn 78-68.

 

[Hongster]

Double digits on all starters and record setting block by Stokes. Uconn by 30.

 

[EasyEd]

UConn 76 South Carolina 64

 

[Geno-ista]

I agree, and I think everyone who has commented also agrees, that if UConn hits 3's the way that they have been hitting in recent games, a UConn loss is extremely improbable, and a blowout win is possible. But, as Geno has said on many occasions, accurate 3-ball shooting is not something you can take to the bank. If you depend on that to win games, you are going to lose some games to good competition.

So let me suggest this as a subtopic of this discussion: Hypothetically, if UConn is cold on its 3-point shooting in the South Carolina game (under 30%, let's say), how does UConn win? And by how much? I would say that under those circumstances, a win by more than 10 points is unlikely. I would also say that in that case, the transition game has to be running like a Swiss watch. Every defensive rebound by UConn has to at least threaten a runout and score. I think that is realistic, particularly if the Gamecocks "blitz" by throwing 3 or 4 players at the offensive boards. I don't think South Carolina is used to playing a full game at that pace, and UConn is quite capable of doing that. I think A'ja Wilson will get winded and become ineffective long before the end of the game, just as Duke's Azura Stevens did, if she has to run up and down the floor in that kind of a game.

The transition game may be the Huskies' ace in the hole.

Great analysis- and here they play a much longer bench, and we think we can run them to death. And I think u r right.

 

[Geno-ista]

Don' forget UConn can run the whole time without getting tired, not SC

With a much shorter bench!

 

[Geno-ista]

We've all seen how Connecticut plays in 'big' games. This one will be no different. UConn runs its offense to well and has too many options for S. Carolina to defend. UConn defends too well and Geno has a habit of designing a defense that not only takes away the opposition's best player, but stymies what they do best on offense. UConn can go big with Kiah, Stewie and Morgan and KML out top with MoJet. They can play equally effectively small with their original starting 5. UConn will speed S.Carolina up and force them into a pce that they aren't comfortable playing. UConn will win this game by 20 at least.

U know- as I was reading your post- I think we are going to see a lot of Gabby also- to keep this game fast and up tempo!!!

 

[triaddukefan]

I was listening to the Duke broadcast team Sunday, and they were talking about the upcoming UCONN-SC game. The color analyst said without a doubt that UCONN would have no trouble with South Carolina, and would win by at least 20 points.

 

[GG]

I think that it will be close through much of the game, but UCONN ultimately pulls it out. Go Huskies!!

 

[boontonbomber]

The best player in the country will assert herself; end of story.

 

[Glenn]

UConn 75 to 60. SC will have a hard time scoring more than 60 against us. I don't understand the comments above about possible foul trouble. We are one of the best teams at playing tough defense and not fouling. Sure it is a risk, but not one that is bigger then going cold on our outside shooting. What gives me confidence is that we seemed to have improved quite a bit on defense since the debacle in Palo Alto.

 

[CTyankee]

I'll hold my guestimate until closer to the contest. I just note in passing that at home, against a far less than top 10 team SC got into serious foul trouble and scored very few very far from the basket in a game in witch the referees ignored the 3 second whistle on the SC offensive end. By the way, when he's home on his board the leghorn calls you all "arrogant." But keep liking his posts that ridicule tonyc...for whatever reason.

The SC Board, for those who have an interest, is...

http://www.cockytalk.com/index.php

Women's basketball is found under their "Foul Shots" forum. You can check out their comments about UConn and the upcoming game...

 

[bballnut90]

I think UCONN rolls in this one. When you look at match up by match up, South Carolina could compete, but they just don't play cohesive basketball like Connecticut does. South Carolina isn't a great offensive team, they don't have many threats from the outside and haven't scored well against ranked teams. On the flip side, UConn is hands down the best offensive team in the nation. They have a MOV of 40 points per game. Every player on the roster has an A/TO ratio of 1:1 or better besides the walk-ons and Williams (who has 23 assists to 24 turnovers.) UCONN shoots 54% from the floor as a team, with all major contributors shooting 50% or better besides Chong at 44%. UCONN's big three point threats (Jefferson/KML/Nurse) combine to shoot over 50% from long range. UCONN crushed Notre Dame by 18 and Duke by 31. 16 of UCONN's 19 games have been won by 30+. I'm not predicting another 30+ margin, but I think 20-25 is more realistic. 80-55 UCONN.

 

[Geno-ista]

UConn 75 to 60. SC will have a hard time scoring more than 60 against us. I don't understand the comments above about possible foul trouble. We are one of the best teams at playing tough defense and not fouling. Sure it is a risk, but not one that is bigger then going cold on our outside shooting. What gives me confidence is that we seemed to have improved quite a bit on defense since the debacle in Palo Alto.

I think u hit the nail on the head with your prediction and analysis- I'm at 72-58 ish!

 

[Tonyc]

Great job Cferr. Im surprised that so many fans are predicting SC to score more points against UConn then they average against top competition. SC averages per Nan in another thread 66 pts against top teams and UConn averages 82. So I don't see this as a close game. I don't think SC scores 66 pts against UConns defense and I think that UConn will be somewhere around 82. Taking into consideration that SC is averaging 66 against teams not as big as UConn and UConn being so good defensively I have to think SC will have problems scoring 55 pts against UConn. I don't think the refs will decide this game either. SC is not a 3 pt shooting team. So I expect UConn to not play SC close at 3 pt line. I also expect Mitchell to be blanketed and UConn to do a lot of doublings down when the ball goes inside. So if the ball goes inside and SC kicks it out so what they don't shoot the trey very well or very often. One other thing UConn is very good cutting off the passing lanes.

SC will have to come out and guard UConn allowing UConn to take the trey of penetrate and dish it off. UConn is shooting the trey well especially Kia MoJeff and KML. So our guards will demand SC to come out and guard them. I know I said in one post UConn by 25 and in another post UConn by 20 and I will wait to come up with a score but I can tell you this I don't see SC winning this game as UConn can put up 80 pts not firing on all cylinders because so many players can score inside and out. SC can not score 65 pts against UConn with everybody firing on all cylinders. UConns defense will win this game big.

 

[Suebird10fan]

I think UCONN rolls in this one. When you look at match up by match up, South Carolina could compete, but they just don't play cohesive basketball like Connecticut does. South Carolina isn't a great offensive team, they don't have many threats from the outside and haven't scored well against ranked teams. On the flip side, UConn is hands down the best offensive team in the nation. They have a MOV of 40 points per game. Every player on the roster has an A/TO ratio of 1:1 or better besides the walk-ons and Williams (who has 23 assists to 24 turnovers.) UCONN shoots 54% from the floor as a team, with all major contributors shooting 50% or better besides Chong at 44%. UCONN's big three point threats (Jefferson/KML/Nurse) combine to shoot over 50% from long range. UCONN crushed Notre Dame by 18 and Duke by 31. 16 of UCONN's 19 games have been won by 30+. I'm not predicting another 30+ margin, but I think 20-25 is more realistic. 80-55 UCONN.

Couldn't have said it better myself!

 

[Intpseeker]

UConn 81 - SC 63

I like Coates a whole lot. Wilson is the goods. What scares me is Mitchell, not because of the hype, but because when she isn't hitting, she takes a page from Odessey Sims, driving to the hoop desperately out of control with out a chance of scoring, but instead of an offensive charge call from the officials, she is rewarded with a blocking foul on the defender, thereby getting herself to the line. I've seen four games this season and it is clearly a pattern.

Don't get me wrong, I rather enjoyed seeing her pressing last night and I hope we put her in that same zone, but I don't want us in foul trouble because officials can't make the call.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

the OP's assessment is pretty well reasoned, but of course, I think the Gamecocks will win because of our experience with tight games and deep bench. I would like to ask why you're overlooking your next 3 games before you play USC, though.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

I'll hold my guestimate until closer to the contest. I just note in passing that at home, against a far less than top 10 team SC got into serious foul trouble and scored very few very far from the basket in a game in witch the referees ignored the 3 second whistle on the SC offensive end. By the way, when he's home on his board the leghorn calls you all "arrogant." But keep liking his posts that ridicule tonyc...for whatever reason.

Do you not find predictions of 30 point victories to be arrogant?

 

[Zorro]

JoePgh asked; Hypothetically, if UConn is cold on its 3-point shooting in the South Carolina game (under 30%, let's say), how does UConn win? And by how much?

FearlessFoxForcasting (not affiliated with Fox News) says; If the Huskies go, say, 3/15, they win by maybe 11-13 points. They do it on defense, disciplined multi-player offense and simply outlasting SCar. For every 3 over 3, add 3. Hard to imagine MoJet, Kia, SuperK and Stewie all having cold 3-point games, but it could happen.