It is hard to compare So. Carolina to UConn on a player by player basis because Dawn has 10 players playing double digits minutes and Geno has 9 players getting double digit minutes... Let's face it...Dawn has Wilson, Coates and Cuevas coming off the bench and everyone knows that both Coates and Wilson should be starting. South Carolina is a different team with both of them on the floor. However, it is always interesting to look at the game from a potential player by player match-up.
South Carolina
5'9" Jr. (G) - Tiffany Mitchell (27.7 min) - 15.3 points / game
6'5" Fr. (G/F) - A'ja Wilson (21.4 min) - 13.6 points / game
6'4" So. (C) - Alaina Coates (20.5 min) - 11.1 points / game
6'0" Sr. (F) - Aleighsa Welch (24.9 min) - 9.6 points / game
6'4" Sr. (C) - Elem Ibiam (17.6 min) - 7.1 points / game
5'6" Fr. (G) - Bianca Cuevas (14.3 min) - 5.4 points / game
6'0" Jr. (G/F) - Asia Dozier (16.7 min) - 4.5 points / game
5'11" Jr. (G) - Tina Roy (15.6 min) - 4.5 points / game
5'8" Jr. (G) - Khadijah Sessions (21.2 min) - 3.8 points / game
6'4" - F (F) - Jatarie White (10.8 min) - 3/6 points / game
70.8 poins
UConn
6'4" Jr. (F) - Breanna Stewart (27.9 min) - 16.9 points / game
5'11" Sr. (F) - Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis (28.1 min) - 14.7 points / game
6'2" So. (F) - Morgan Tuck (25.3 min) - 14.4 points / game
6'0" Fr (G) - Kia Nurse (24.5 min) - 11.9 points / game
5'7" Jr. (G) - Moriah Jefferson (26.6 min) - 11.7 points / game
5'11" Fr. (G) - Gabby Williams (16.4 min) - 8.2 points / game
5'8" So. (G) - Saniya Chong (20.3 min) - 5.8 points / game
6'3" Sr. (C) - Kiah Stokes (20.7 min) - 5.4 points / game
6.0 Fr. (G) - Courtney Ekmark (14.2 min) - 2.2 points / game
90.4 points
We know that both Geno and Dawn will shorten their bench during tight games and that key players will play more minutes so, the keys will be: 1. Which key players on each team steps up and has a good day? 2. Which players will have a bad scoring day? 3. Which players will get into foul trouble and when in the game does that occur?
Dawn's team is big with 4 players 6'4" or bigger. Geno's team at this point in the season is farther along offensively than Dawn's. Both teams have great team defense...UConn is number 2 while South Carolina is number 8. Dawn's team is not that good from the FT line .673...that is the good news, however, the bad news is...they get to the line more (282 - 419) than UConn does (227 - 230). UConn is a better three point shooting team with numerous players who can shoot the three: Stewart, Lewis, Tuck, Nurse, Jefferson, Chong - (163-397 or .411). South Carolina has the three in their arsenal but they have less people who shoot them and they make them less frequently: Mitchell, Roy and Dozier - (99 - 280 or .354).
Match-ups
Tiffany Mitchell vs Kia Nurse - Kia will have her hands full with Tiffany. Tiffany is a versatile guard who can handle, shoot the three, pull up for the mid-range jumper and she can defend. It can be argued that Tiffany is Dawn's best all around player. Tiffany has three years experience at the college level but we have seen that Kia plays beyond her years. I think Kia does a decent job defending Tiffany but at the end of the day I think the ADVANTAGE lies with Tiffany.
Khadijah Sessions vs Moriah Jefferson - Moriah is playing other worldly now and Dawn will have to play Moriah by committee...I think we will see Khadijah, Bianca Cuevas and Asia Dozier all taking a crack at containing Moriah. Moriah will be disruptive on the defensive end and I think Moriah will control tempo and keep her turnovers low giving the ADVANTAGE to Moriah
Aleighsa Welch vs Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis - Aleighsa is Dawn's spark-plug and I look for her to be all over KML...draped on her like a wet blanket...as Dawn tries to "cut off the head". How successful will UConn be setting screens to free KML and how successful will KML be in creating her own shot. I say this match-up will be somewhat EVEN unless KML can find a way to get her shots...if she does then ADVANTAGE will shift towards UConn
A'ja Wilson vs Breanna Stewart - this should be an interesting match-up. It could result in either one of them getting into foul trouble. Breanna because of A'ja's size and mobility and A'ja because of Breanna's size and mobility. Breanna has more experience at this level and that should count for something but we have seen Breanna pick up unnecessary fouls. We will need her on the floor and out of foul trouble. Breanna will need to play both inside and outside...bring A'ja outside with her to free up the middle for others to rebound. Given Breanna's experience, her ability to score and the absolute nightmare she presents to opposing teams I think she has a great game. I would say ADVANTAGE goes to Breanna with A'ja being the one who ends up in foul trouble.
Alaina Coates vs Tuck - Now this will be an great match-up. Both players are very mobile in the post. While Tuck has a plethora of post moves and is more polished Coates is an absolute beast with strength, size and soft hands inside. I think we have a similar situation here as we have in the previous match-up either on of these players could end up in foul trouble. We are thinner at the post than So. Carolina is but with Stokes coming in to spell either Stewart or Tuck should they get in foul trouble what we lose in scoring power we make up for in defense. Stokes ability to rebound and block shots may be more on demand in this game and we must remember that Stokes seems to deliver when she is needed. But, back to the Coates vs Tuck match-up...I'm going to call this one SLIGHT ADVANTAGE Tuck.
Bench - South Carolina has a very deep bench and Geno will not go that deep into his bench. With Gabby and Saniya getting limited minutes and the rest of the crew possibly not playing at all...I give the ADVANTAGE to South Carolina.
Coaching - I think Staley is a great coach, I just think Geno and staff are better. The entire WCBB world seems to be in a hurry to crown Staley as Geno's successor as the premier women's basketball coach but I think those notions are premature. I give the coaching ADVANTAGE to UConn.
Intangibles - Home court, crowd, etc... ADVANTAGE UConn
UConn by 9: 83 - 74