UConn to B1G expansion scenario

[nelsonmuntz]

Cincinnati will be in the big 12 before UConn upgrades its conference.

 

[frankthetank]

A few thoughts:

(1) I'd say that AAU is a de facto requirement for the Big Ten for any school other than Notre Dame, and if UConn is legitimately close to AAU membership (which is debatable - undergrad metrics aren't the same as the graduate school metrics), then you guys want that to continue to be the case. Otherwise, if the Big Ten throws the AAU requirement out the window, then that opens up schools like Oklahoma and Florida State to the Big Ten's consideration (who if you look at in terms of the graduate research dollars that the Big Ten cares about more than undergrad rankings, are actually very comparable to UConn), and that's just not going to be a favorable comparison for UConn no matter how one tries to spin it.

(2) The partner issue is as much of a problem as AAU status. The Big Ten rejected Missouri multiple times before and that's an AAU school contiguous to the Big Ten footprint with a large number of TV households. As I've said many times before, the Big Ten isn't going to expand for the sake of expanding, no matter how much fans want to believe that the Big Ten Network is driving everything. Missouri is a perfect addition for pure cable TV money purposes, integration with the rest of the conference and its AAU status, yet the Big Ten still passed them over. That should show you how high the standards are to get into the Big Ten - they'll absolutely wait rather than go to 16 for the sake of going to 16.

(3) Notre Dame is actually less likely to drop independence now than it did back when the Big East was getting poached by the ACC for Miami, BC and VT 10 years ago. Some posters above are correct: they have *everything* that they could possibly want. Plus, I deal with Domers everyday. For the most part, message board people like us greatly exaggerate the fan bases of other schools and what they're like. In the case of Notre Dame alums, they are actually *worse* than their national stereotypes. I could go on about this for quite awhile, but the devotion that their alums have to independence in and of itself is unlike anything in college sports... and the thing is that alums actually legitimately control Notre Dame (unlike other schools where administrators will stay above the fray). Whatever stereotype that you have in your head about Notre Dame alums, they're actually 100 times *worse* than what you think on the independence issue. There's no rationalization whatsoever on that issue with that group. Not making less money. Not losing the NBC contract. Nothing. The only possible thing is if Notre Dame structurally cannot win a national championship without being in a conference, which is the furthest thing from the truth right now since there aren't any conference championship requirements at all to make the playoff. Any conference expansion plan that includes Notre Dame, whether it's from the Big Ten, ACC, or Big 12, falls flat on its face.

(4) I'd still maintain that UConn's best shot to get into a power conference is the Big 12. That's the only league that (1) has a colorable argument to get bigger and (2) has a lot fewer requirements regarding academics and geography (see the WVU addition) compared to the other leagues. I'm not saying that it would be a perfect situation, but I'd certainly be lobbying that angle extremely hard if I were running UConn. The worst thing for UConn actually isn't the AAC as of today. Instead, it would be if the Big 12 expanded and took Cincinnati plus someone else (BYU or, God forbid, USF) and UConn was still stuck in an even further depleted AAC.

The big thing is that UConn's resume has to be flawless. If you're expecting the Big Ten to proactively expand with UConn and you have to try explaining away things like lack of AAU status, you're not going to get into the front door with a group of university presidents that aren't on the prowl for further realignment right now. Rutgers had more leeway because it was already AAU and directly in the NYC market, so unfortunately UConn has a higher threshold to meet.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Thanks Frank for the usual cold water splash of the reality check

If B1G has such high standards, why did they take RU? I already know what you are going to say. However, that pretty much throws the high-standard thing out of the window. At the end of the day, it is still about the almighty $$$$$$.

 

[UConn Dan]

Frank - I get what you're saying but how do you address Delany's comments about the east coast from yesterday? Expansion is not dead and I think UConn is on the list. Only issue is partner.

 

[frankthetank]

Thanks Frank for the usual cold water splash of the reality check

If B1G has such high standards, why did they take RU? I already know what you are going to say. However, that pretty much throws the high-standard thing out of the window. At the end of the day, it is still about the almighty .

Oh sure, it's all about the almighty dollar. It's just that Rutgers had the structural items in place (AAU status and NYC market location) with a demonstrated history of football investment over the past decade (even if it didn't necessarily pay off on the field). No matter what you could say about Rutgers, it is an AAU school directly within the NYC market and those are factors that won't ever change (as opposed to coaches, etc.). I'll be the first to tell you that I'm skeptical that Rutgers can deliver for the BTN in the way that the Big Ten is hoping for, but that's more of my overarching belief that there might not be any combo in the NYC market that could achieve that. Now, this is blunted by the fact that a lot of fans likely underestimate the financial value of Maryland, which was honestly a no-brainer from a BTN viewpoint (and made the roulette bet that the Big Ten made on the NYC market possible).

 

[Fishy]

I suspect the Big 12 is the most realistic chance unless the Big Ten truly finds some compelling reason to go to 16. Who knows what that reason might be. UConn would have to jump, but that wouldn't be a perfect existence.

We've just been the right school in the wrong spot throughout.

It's been an ironical trip.

Richest state in the union, top 30 market even without Fairfield and yet our demographic doesn't work for this reason or that reason. (If you're looking for a chuckle, I believe Rutgers gets credit for Fairfield in their DMA.) We have amateur Big Ten pundits sniffing at our academics and yet but for some lobbying group, chances are they went to a university that isn't as reputable as ours. And then our athletic program was too intimidating for Boston College and perhaps Syracuse and yet not intimidating enough for Florida State and Clemson.

God bless 'em and they are all good posters, great contributors and are welcome forever, but good God, having fans of Pitt or Minnesota or Illinois or Rutgers or wherever peering down into our pit of misery here makes me want to throw puppies in front of trains. Put our trophy case, academics and whatever else up against any of 'em.

 

[huskymedic]

Frank - I get what you're saying but how do you address Delany's comments about the east coast from yesterday? Expansion is not dead and I think UConn is on the list. Only issue is partner.

Easy to reconcile when you read this and not try to read into this. Right now it's all about SUNJ and Turtle U.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/76834/expansion-not-dead-but-not-b1gs-priority

>>Delany made it clear that the East Coast remains the Big Ten's priority, but the league is focused more on expanding its existing product, especially the Big Ten Network, and integrating its new members than pursuing new ones.

"I can't speak for others, but we've been focused on making a home in a new region, making new members feel at home in this region," Delany said. "Everything we'll do competitively and in television and in bowls is to bring, as quickly as we can, a level of comfort. The Eastern corridor is ... the richest corridor in the world from the standpoint of financial institutions, political institutions, media institutions, and we're new to it. So if we can build relationships, make friends and be impactful and relevant over time, that's the goal.

"We're not going to be changing the world, but we are looking forward to doing everything we can to build a presence in that place."

Many thought building a presence would include more members from the East Coast, but if the ACC is secure, and it appears to be, there aren't many if any attractive expansion candidates. Connecticut is looking for a home, but it's not a member of the AAU, a virtual must for future Big Ten members, league sources say. After that ... it's slim pickings.<<

 

[frankthetank]

Frank - I get what you're saying but how do you address Delany's comments about the east coast from yesterday? Expansion is not dead and I think UConn is on the list. Only issue is partner.

If you saw all of this comments as opposed to his quotes taken out of context, he was much more dour on further expansion. I read his comments to be, "I'll never say never because you can never say never, but you can you please stop asking me about expansion it's not happening now. Seriously." The references to the East Coast were more about integrating Rutgers and Maryland, and to the extent that expansion could have anything to do with this, it just as likely had to do with the prospect of UVA down the road as much as anyone else (even though that avenue ought to be foreclosed as of now with the ACC grant of rights). If you look back at Delany's comments over the past 3 years, he's actually not that coy about his expansion comments. Look back at the quotes from him after the ACC added Notre Dame as a partial member last September - he all but declared that more expansion was coming if you actually paid attention to what he was saying (and it occurred fairly soon thereafter). This is in contrast to the ACC's John Swofford, who is sneaky as all duckk - you have to give him credit because there are *no* leaks that come out of that office. I know you guys are clinging to all hope in every quote, but I'm just not seeing it. Like I've said, what Bob Bowlsby and Deloss Dodds are saying about the Big 12 is going to be much more relevant to UConn right now than what Jim Delany says.

 

[upstater]

A few thoughts:

(1) I'd say that AAU is a de facto requirement for the Big Ten for any school other than Notre Dame, and if UConn is legitimately close to AAU membership (which is debatable - undergrad metrics aren't the same as the graduate school metrics), then you guys want that to continue to be the case. Otherwise, if the Big Ten throws the AAU requirement out the window, then that opens up schools like Oklahoma and Florida State to the Big Ten's consideration (who if you look at in terms of the graduate research dollars that the Big Ten cares about more than undergrad rankings, are actually very comparable to UConn), and that's just not going to be a favorable comparison for UConn no matter how one tries to spin it.

(2) The partner issue is as much of a problem as AAU status. The Big Ten rejected Missouri multiple times before and that's an AAU school contiguous to the Big Ten footprint with a large number of TV households. As I've said many times before, the Big Ten isn't going to expand for the sake of expanding, no matter how much fans want to believe that the Big Ten Network is driving everything. Missouri is a perfect addition for pure cable TV money purposes, integration with the rest of the conference and its AAU status, yet the Big Ten still passed them over. That should show you how high the standards are to get into the Big Ten - they'll absolutely wait rather than go to 16 for the sake of going to 16.

(3) Notre Dame is actually less likely to drop independence now than it did back when the Big East was getting poached by the ACC for Miami, BC and VT 10 years ago. Some posters above are correct: they have *everything* that they could possibly want. Plus, I deal with Domers everyday. For the most part, message board people like us greatly exaggerate the fan bases of other schools and what they're like. In the case of Notre Dame alums, they are actually *worse* than their national stereotypes. I could go on about this for quite awhile, but the devotion that their alums have to independence in and of itself is unlike anything in college sports... and the thing is that alums actually legitimately control Notre Dame (unlike other schools where administrators will stay above the fray). Whatever stereotype that you have in your head about Notre Dame alums, they're actually 100 times *worse* than what you think on the independence issue. There's no rationalization whatsoever on that issue with that group. Not making less money. Not losing the NBC contract. Nothing. The only possible thing is if Notre Dame structurally cannot win a national championship without being in a conference, which is the furthest thing from the truth right now since there aren't any conference championship requirements at all to make the playoff. Any conference expansion plan that includes Notre Dame, whether it's from the Big Ten, ACC, or Big 12, falls flat on its face.

(4) I'd still maintain that UConn's best shot to get into a power conference is the Big 12. That's the only league that (1) has a colorable argument to get bigger and (2) has a lot fewer requirements regarding academics and geography (see the WVU addition) compared to the other leagues. I'm not saying that it would be a perfect situation, but I'd certainly be lobbying that angle extremely hard if I were running UConn. The worst thing for UConn actually isn't the AAC as of today. Instead, it would be if the Big 12 expanded and took Cincinnati plus someone else (BYU or, God forbid, USF) and UConn was still stuck in an even further depleted AAC.

The big thing is that UConn's resume has to be flawless. If you're expecting the Big Ten to proactively expand with UConn and you have to try explaining away things like lack of AAU status, you're not going to get into the front door with a group of university presidents that aren't on the prowl for further realignment right now. Rutgers had more leeway because it was already AAU and directly in the NYC market, so unfortunately UConn has a higher threshold to meet.

Nebraska has a great football history, and was in the process of being ousted from the AAU prior to joining the B1G, so Oklahoma and Florida State are not absolutely out based on that. UConn is a different story in that respect.

Of course, what may not be so obvious from the outside about UConn and academics, is that the school is hiring hundreds of top faculty (poaching them really, which is easy to do now when states all over the country have salary freezes) in fields with research money flowing. Couple that with the state's $2 billion outlay to start public-private partnerships through UConn, and you can see the grad research end of it bumped up in short time. The only question is execution.

Can UConn buy itself an AAU-level research foundation in the current environment (when research dollars are being cut, yet the talent is clearly cheaper than ever before). I know for a fact that there are Deans in multiple AAU universities right now more than a little concerned that without automatic raises and without discretionary salary increase capability (for most schools with unions), they are fighting to retain faculty with both hands tied behind their backs. A school like UConn that is willing to spend big money (because of unconscionable rises in tuition) will find top faculty.

 

[CTGoonie]

If you look back at Delany's comments over the past 3 years, he's actually not that coy about his expansion comments. Look back at the quotes from him after the ACC added Notre Dame as a partial member last September - he all but declared that more expansion was coming if you actually paid attention to what he was saying (and it occurred fairly soon thereafter). I know you guys are clinging to all hope in every quote, but I'm just not seeing it. Like I've said, what Bob Bowlsby and Deloss Dodds are saying about the Big 12 is going to be much more relevant to UConn right now than what Jim Delany says.

Read this in the Detroit News this morning

"A year ago, the Big Ten's athletic directors sat in meetings and said the conference was not looking to further expand just a year after Nebraska came onboard.
However, months later, Rutgers and Maryland became the 13th and 14th members of the Big Ten and will begin play in 2014."​

Maybe Delany is a little more coy than you give him credit for.

 

[Fishy]

Okay, now I have a nightmare scenario.

The University of Toronto is an AAU school.

That would put me in a clock tower with a bazooka.

 

[frankthetank]

Nebraska has a great football history, and was in the process of being ousted from the AAU prior to joining the B1G, so Oklahoma and Florida State are not absolutely out based on that. UConn is a different story in that respect.

Of course, what may not be so obvious from the outside about UConn and academics, is that the school is hiring hundreds of top faculty (poaching them really, which is easy to do now when states all over the country have salary freezes) in fields with research money flowing. Couple that with the state's $2 billion outlay to start public-private partnerships through UConn, and you can see the grad research end of it bumped up in short time. The only question is execution.

Can UConn buy itself an AAU-level research foundation in the current environment (when research dollars are being cut, yet the talent is clearly cheaper than ever before). I know for a fact that there are Deans in multiple AAU universities right now more than a little concerned that without automatic raises and without discretionary salary increase capability (for most schools with unions), they are fighting to retain faculty with both hands tied behind their backs. A school like UConn that is willing to spend big money (because of unconscionable rises in tuition) will find top faculty.

That may very well be the case and, regardless of conference realignment, AAU status is a big deal for a university in and of itself.

Now, the only thing is that the AAU expansion is sloooooooooooooow. In fact, it has been more in contraction mode over the past 5 years. That doesn't mean that UConn or any other school that is willing to make the investment can't push themselves into that conversation for AAU membership, but I think a lot of people here are making it sound a LOT easier than what it is in reality. Based on the AAU metrics that were used to kick Nebraska out, the only FBS school that was in striking distance of what Boston University had in terms of qualifications (the latest AAU addition) was Miami. (Dartmouth, who believe it or not, isn't an AAU member, is also high up there.) It's not just about hiring faculty, but the *right* faculty that bring in massive research dollars in medicine and engineering, in particular. If you think the Big Ten is snooty, then you'll be aghast at the AAU's procedures. It's incredibly exclusive and slow-changing, which is why existing AAU schools are disproportionately valuable. Georgia Tech didn't get AAU status until 2010 and that has been a legit engineering *powerhouse* for decades. So, there is no such thing as a fait accompli at all regarding AAU membership.

 

[huskymedic]

Okay, now I have a nightmare scenario.

The University of Toronto is an AAU school.

That would put me in a clock tower with a bazooka.

 

[frankthetank]

Read this in the Detroit News this morning

"A year ago, the Big Ten's athletic directors sat in meetings and said the conference was not looking to further expand just a year after Nebraska came onboard.​

However, months later, Rutgers and Maryland became the 13th and 14th members of the Big Ten and will begin play in 2014."​

Maybe Delany is a little more coy than you give him credit for.

No, that's exactly how they felt at the time. If (1) the Pac-12 hadn't backed out of its alliance with the Big Ten and (2) the ACC hadn't added Notre Dame, the Big Ten wouldn't have expanded. Those were the two factors that occurred back-to-back that kickstarted Big Ten expansion again. The Big Ten thought that the Pac-12 alliance would give them TV inventory and geographic reach in a way that wouldn't require expansion, so that falling through (which occurred after the Big Ten AD meetings last year) completely changed the mindset of the league.

Certainly, intervening factors could change things again a year from now, but it's just a lot less likely such intervening factors will occur with all of the new grant of rights agreements in place and TV contracts getting finalized. Notre Dame is locked in. The ACC and Big 12 have grant of rights arrangements. There's a new SEC Network. The College Football Playoff and top bowl matchups are set. Burke Magnus from ESPN just said the other day that all realignment has done is cost ESPN more money, so if you thought that ESPN was subsidizing realignment before, it certainly isn't going to do so going forward. Things that were still much more tenuous last year are nowhere near as tenuous today. Once again, can certainly happen and throw things into chaos again, but I don't think anyone can honestly say that there's a high likelihood of that happening.

 

[IMind]

Burke Magnus is a lying . All CR has done is save ESPN millions... basically for the cost of adding a few schools to the ACC and stablizing Texas in the Big 12 they got all of the Big East's assets that just a little while ago they offered $1.17 billion for.

 

[Thirdelement]

I thought I'd comment to support one of Frank's points. I'm an ND alum. We really aren't going to give up independence. Like ever. I've been surprised that we haven't been declared a major winner in CR by more pundits, because this round went really well for us. So, I don't think an opening in the ACC will be a result of us signing on as #15, I think it would have to be as a result of them finally giving up on us and wanting to move to 16.

Also, I can say with some confidence, we would likely close the Athletic Deparment before joining the B1G. So, there is no way we will be the #15 there that creates a spot for #16.

I'm still hoping for you and Mizzu to the B1G!

 

[frankthetank]

Burke Magnus is a lying . All CR has done is save ESPN millions... basically for the cost of adding a few schools to the ACC and stablizing Texas in the Big 12 they got all of the Big East's assets that just a little while ago they offered $1.17 billion for.

I'd disagree. They've had to reopen deals for the SEC, ACC and Big 12, partner up with a direct competitor (Fox) to pay a monster amount to the relatively ratings-poor Pac-12 just to keep it out of the hands of an even less desirable competitor (NBC/Comcast), and will now be in line to have to pay a gargantuan (AKA more than anything that's on ESPN other than the NFL) to merely keep the Big Ten package that it currently has when it goes to the open market in the next couple of years. So, no, they're not saving money. Whatever they were going to pay to an intact Big East pales in comparison to dealing with the Big Ten and SEC that now legitimately have as much negotiating power as the MLB and NBA in terms of making or breaking a sports network. ESPN might have their on-air favorites spouting their biases during GameDay, but make no mistake about it, they're paying a lot more money for college sports today as a result of realignment. Having more less powerful leagues has always been much more advantageous to ESPN than having fewer more powerful leagues. It's one of the biggest misnomers of conference realignment that ESPN is somehow saving money in all of this (not that they deserve any sympathy).

 

[upstater]

That may very well be the case and, regardless of conference realignment, AAU status is a big deal for a university in and of itself.

Now, the only thing is that the AAU expansion is sloooooooooooooow. In fact, it has been more in contraction mode over the past 5 years. That doesn't mean that UConn or any other school that is willing to make the investment can't push themselves into that conversation for AAU membership, but I think a lot of people here are making it sound a LOT easier than what it is in reality. Based on the AAU metrics that were used to kick Nebraska out, the only FBS school that was in striking distance of what Boston University had in terms of qualifications (the latest AAU addition) was Miami. (Dartmouth, who believe it or not, isn't an AAU member, is also high up there.) It's not just about hiring faculty, but the *right* faculty that bring in massive research dollars in medicine and engineering, in particular. If you think the Big Ten is snooty, then you'll be aghast at the AAU's procedures. It's incredibly exclusive and slow-changing, which is why existing AAU schools are disproportionately valuable. Georgia Tech didn't get AAU status until 2010 and that has been a legit engineering *powerhouse* for decades. So, there is no such thing as a fait accompli at all regarding AAU membership.

For sure, the AAU is difficult. I actually have some internal memos from them about further contraction (member schools together get 50% of all research dollars, and in an era when the nation isn't funding research like it used to, they are in contraction mode. They have stated so openly). I pointed this out on this board two years ago. I also know that the bottom 10 or 15 universities are ramping up and putting all energy into research (because of budget cuts and the fear of being lopped off the AAU). Many more schools to come I believe.

That being said, I was surprised when my alma mater Boston U. was recently added. If you look at UConn's new hires, it is heavily targeted.

 

[upstater]

Burke Magnus from ESPN just said the other day that all realignment has done is cost ESPN more money, so if you thought that ESPN was subsidizing realignment before, it certainly isn't going to do so going forward.

And it's going to cost them even more when the temporary tax credit of $15 million a year isn't renewed in a few years, and the savings are sent directly to UConn's AD!

 

[Fishy]

If Connecticut wanted to force the issue with ESPN, they would undertake the repaving of rte. 229 or whatever road goes past ESPN.

And then once it is repaved and the traffic nightmares are over, repave it again.

And keep repaving it until the road surface is 25' thick or we're in a better conference.

 

[CL82]

If Connecticut wanted to force the issue with ESPN, they would undertake the repaving of rte. 229 or whatever road goes past ESPN.

And then once it is repaved and the traffic nightmares are over, repave it again.

And keep repaving it until the road surface is 25' thick or we're in a better conference.

See now that there is what they call strategery.

 

[Dooley]

If Connecticut wanted to force the issue with ESPN, they would undertake the repaving of rte. 229 or whatever road goes past ESPN.

And then once it is repaved and the traffic nightmares are over, repave it again.

And keep repaving it until the road surface is 25' thick or we're in a better conference.

Yes! Install a few Walmart Superstores and line up drive thru fast food chains for as long as the eye can see to really jam 'em up.

 

[pj]

if the Big Ten throws the AAU requirement out the window, then that opens up schools like Oklahoma and Florida State to the Big Ten's consideration (who if you look at in terms of the graduate research dollars that the Big Ten cares about more than undergrad rankings, are actually very comparable to UConn), and that's just not going to be a favorable comparison for UConn no matter how one tries to spin it.

UConn beats both schools on a metric that Delany has actually stated is a primary B1G goal: building on top of Rutgers, Maryland, and Penn State a strong presence on the populous, wealthy, influential, cable revenue producing East Coast.

Frank, you value past football reputation more than the B1G does. I'm sure if the B1G broke up they'd be very happy to take Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas; and if the ACC broke up they'd happily take UVa, UNC, Ga Tech, and FSU. But without those contiguous schools, FSU on an island is less attractive than UConn. If USF and UCF joined the B12, FSU in the B1G with no conference mate in a thousand miles could end up the #4 or #5 football program in Florida. (Florida #1; USF, UCF, and Miami are all in top 20 media markets, and USF and UCF are state schools; Tallahassee is in the #107 DMA and geographically remote from most of Florida, http://www.mediaservicesgroup.com/articles/TV DMA RANKING LIST.pdf). FSU's stature can only go down. Whereas UConn's value and football competitiveness rise dramatically as soon as we are in the B1G, and we immediately become the clearcut top football program in the New York-New England region with 35 million people. That's better than being #2 - #5 in a state of 19 million. Nor would FSU be happy in the B1G, they'd always be looking to the SEC or ACC as an alternative.

 

[frankthetank]

UConn beats both schools on a metric that Delany has actually stated is a primary B1G goal: building on top of Rutgers, Maryland, and Penn State a strong presence on the populous, wealthy, influential, cable revenue producing East Coast.

Frank, you value past football reputation more than the B1G does. I'm sure if the B1G broke up they'd be very happy to take Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas; and if the ACC broke up they'd happily take UVa, UNC, Ga Tech, and FSU. But without those contiguous schools, FSU on an island is less attractive than UConn. If USF and UCF joined the B12, FSU in the B1G with no conference mate in a thousand miles could end up the #4 or #5 football program in Florida. (Florida #1; USF, UCF, and Miami are all in top 20 media markets, and USF and UCF are state schools; Tallahassee is in the #107 DMA and geographically remote from most of Florida, http://www.mediaservicesgroup.com/articles/TV DMA RANKING LIST.pdf). FSU's stature can only go down. Whereas UConn's value and football competitiveness rise dramatically as soon as we are in the B1G, and we immediately become the clearcut top football program in the New York-New England region with 35 million people. That's better than being #2 - #5 in a state of 19 million. Nor would FSU be happy in the B1G, they'd always be looking to the SEC or ACC as an alternative.

I disagree. The BTN is a vehicle to make a lot of money for sure, but the conference still makes more money (and will contribute to make more money when a new deal is signed in a couple of years) from its national first tier football contract. Football absolutely, positively matters. While that brings up the question about "Why did the Big Ten add Rutgers and Maryland if it's supposed to be about football?", the answers are (1) that expansion was allowed because choice #1 was the legit marquee football name of Nebraska (which is the antithesis of the East Coast), (2) New Jersey and Maryland produce the highest number of Division 1 football recruits of any two non-Sun Belt states that aren't already in the Big Ten footprint and (3) they are located directly in (not just kind in the vicinity of) the NYC and DC markets. The Big Ten could afford to go for a market-oriented expansion because (as many people have seem to have forgotten with all of the focus on the BTN) they arguably made the purest football move in all of conference realignment by adding small market Midwest-to-the-core Nebraska as step one.

The geographic proximity of Florida State would be an issue for the Big Ten if they didn't add anyone else - I'll grant you that. However, I'm sorry, but FSU blows away virtually all other schools outside of Texas (not just UConn) on any TV-based and football-based metric. FSU unambiguously delivers the entire state of Florida for TV purposes in a way that isn't possible in the Northeast, so the size of the Tallahassee is irrelevant. I can't tell you enough how different the mentality is there regarding college sports. You'll also find *individual* high schools in Florida that produce as many or more Division 1 football recruits as the entire state of Connecticut on an annual basis. Seriously. On a pure money and football basis, the only two schools that would provide more to the Big Ten would the University of Florida (obviously not leaving the SEC) or Texas. Any non-SEC/Texas candidate for the Big Ten isn't anywhere isn't close if you disregard geography.

Now, the reality is that geography still matters somewhat. When I hear the Big Ten talk about the "East Coast", though, what I really hear is "Mid-Atlantic" as opposed to "New York City" (which is what a lot of others assume). That points to Virginia and North Carolina. Those are the areas that a rapid number of Big Ten grads are moving to (more so than New England) and have a large pool of football recruits. Riddle me this: if the Big Ten would look past UConn's lack of AAU status, why wouldn't it also look past another school in a larger soon-to-be contiguous state with a fantastic football program and fan base: Virginia Tech? Think about what value they'd be bringing to the table if it proves to be impossible to pry away UVA from the ACC. I point them out because if you start thinking that the Big Ten is going to start overlooking AAU status and hope that UConn would be a beneficiary, you better understand the type of additonal competition that you're opening yourselves up to (because I honestly don't think UConn's leadership had any idea about what they were going up against with Louisville for the last spot in the ACC and that's a big reason why UConn is here today). Overconfidence will get you killed in conference realignment - expecting a conference like the Big Ten to deviate from the criteria that it has applied to every single school that it has added isn't realistic. The resume has to be *perfect* (not just "We are working on it" potential) when inertia is very much toward no further expansion at this time.