UConn-ND 4 Pregame Analysis

[HuskyNan]

by doggydaddy

 

[Kibitzer]

Superior analysis and, I believe, an accurate prediction of the result.

Since I must find one nit to pick, I must urge our intrepid resident handicapper to overcome his reticence to use of Kaleena's full name. It will go into the record books. on the AA rosters, and on The Wall in Gampel as Mosqueda-Lewis.

 

[Rayvin56]

Spot on analysis as usual, DD, thanks!

 

[Samanthabrown3]

UConn has definitely gotten better. I saw more sharpness in Diggins' game this past week. Other than that, has ND gotten better?

 

[doggydaddy]

I made a cut and past mistake in the starting lineup. I meant to have Doty starting and Hartley off the bench and Stewart starting and Jefferson off the bench. Sorry about that and thanks to msf22b for letting me know about my mistake.

DD

 

[chrissaran]

Breanna Stewart not starting? Not a chance. Bre is the most difficult player for Notre Dame to match up with. Also, with Stef 's lack of mobility, she will have to play strong helpside defense as she has been all year. If there are difference makers for UConn its Bre, MoJeff and a revitalized Bria.

 

[rjp172]

"It’s really hard to imagine UConn losing 4 times to a team. Especially in games that were so close. Will they hold on to a lead late in the game? They had that situation in all 3 games and failed."

UConn didn't have a lead late in the third game. UConn had a 2pt lead that lasted 24 seconds earlier in the half from 9:45 to 9:21. It was definitely back and forth for the majority of the second 1/2, but UConn never got another lead after 9:21. IMO this game is not like the other two because there was no "giving away the game" by UConn. The game was never in their control until the opportunity for what should have been the last shot. UConn did everything they could to steal it from ND, but it was never theirs to give away.

 

[semper]

I'm not watching...can't stand it. Will look at the thread about midnight.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Lots of people are keying on UConn being able to stop McBride and Diggens. I'm not sure that they have to. ND scored 61 points the last game. That's 20 points below their season average. That's very good UConn defense against the #2 scoring team in the country.

UConn didn't lose the last game because their defense was weak, they lost the game because their offense was weak. They were held to 23 points below their season average. Consider that the top 3 point shooter in the country didn't attempt any 3 point shots and made only 25% of her attempts. I just don't see that happening again.

 

[UConnCat]

Lots of people are keying on UConn being able to stop McBride and Diggens. I'm not sure that they have to. ND scored 61 points the last game. That's 20 points below their season average. That's very good UConn defense against the #2 scoring team in the country.

UConn didn't lose the last game because their defense was weak, they lost the game because their offense was weak. They were held to 23 points below their season average. Consider that the top 3 point shooter in the country didn't attempt any 3 point shots and made only 25% of her attempts. I just don't see that happening again.

I agree. I liked the way UConn played in the 2nd half of the BE final, but for the last 30+ seconds.

I look for UConn to attack the paint against ND with Stewart, Dolson and KML. ND will have Loyd again try to take away KML's 3-point shooting but KML should be able to post Loyd up and overpower her. This is the 4th time I've said that UConn has to win the Stewart v Braker match-up. Stewart played very well in the BET and is playing even better now.

UConn is going to turn the ball over, but it absolutely needs to clean up the ones that are just bad plays and give ND easy baskets or unearned possessions. Hartley needs to take better care of the ball and not allow Diggins to strip her. The post players must be more careful with their inbounds and outlet passes and recognize when ND guards (particularly Diggins) are closing in for a steal or to force a travel. Kelly must make the sure pass and not try for the spectacular one.

 

[doggydaddy]

Breanna Stewart not starting? Not a chance. Bre is the most difficult player for Notre Dame to match up with. Also, with Stef 's lack of mobility, she will have to play strong helpside defense as she has been all year. If there are difference makers for UConn its Bre, MoJeff and a revitalized Bria.

Like I said, I made a mistake in cutting and pasting the lineups from another game analysis.

If I could correct it, I would.

 

[HuskyNan]

Like I said, I made a mistake in cutting and pasting the lineups from another game analysis.

If I could correct it, I would.

shoot me an email with your changes.

 

[jplotinus]

An update on Stef and the effects of rest and treatment would be helpful for final analysis and prognostication purposes. IMO, something like the Looville strategy against Baylor will be needed. That is, UCONN most jump on ND early with 3s and whatevah else it takes. UCONN can beat ND if and only if it gets a big lead like it has against its other tournament opponents; and, the earlier the better.

Playing close favors ND because they know how to win close ones ... and, well, UCONN doesn't, or, rather, hasn't yet shown that ability.

Plan A: get a big lead
Plan B: get a bigger lead

 

[doggydaddy]

shoot me an email with your changes.

You have mail.

 

[doggydaddy]

An update on Stef and the effects of rest and treatment would be helpful for final analysis and prognostication purposes. IMO, something like the Looville strategy against Baylor will be needed. That is, UCONN most jump on ND early with 3s and whatevah else it takes. UCONN can beat ND if and only if it gets a big lead like it has against its other tournament opponents; and, the earlier the better.

Playing close favors ND because they know how to win close ones ... and, well, UCONN doesn't, or, rather, hasn't yet shown that ability.

Plan A: get a big lead
Plan B: get a bigger lead

"UCONN can beat ND if and only if it gets a big lead "

I don't agree at all.

 

[reno tony]

The analysis is great but where is Heather Buck?

 

[uconn_nyc]

I agree. I liked the way UConn played in the 2nd half of the BE final, but for the last 30+ seconds.

I look for UConn to attack the paint against ND with Stewart, Dolson and KML. ND will have Loyd again try to take away KML's 3-point shooting but KML should be able to post Loyd up and overpower her. This is the 4th time I've said that UConn has to win the Stewart v Braker match-up. Stewart played very well in the BET and is playing even better now.

UConn is going to turn the ball over, but it absolutely needs to clean up the ones that are just bad plays and give ND easy baskets or unearned possessions. Hartley needs to take better care of the ball and not allow Diggins to strip her. The post players must be more careful with their inbounds and outlet passes and recognize when ND guards (particularly Diggins) are closing in for a steal or to force a travel. Kelly must make the sure pass and not try for the spectacular one.

Yes. The Irish are opportunistic and make opponents pay for every mistake.
With Bria regaining her confidence and touch and Mo's dribbling and scoring, I like our chances this time against ND.

 

[jplotinus]

"UCONN can beat ND if and only if it gets a big lead "

I don't agree at all.

Reasoning?

Here's mine: I am here assuming validity of the old saying "the best predictor of future performance is past performance."

But there are many ways to view past performance. I here consider two ways to view prior performance:

1-the 3 prior matchups this year.

2-NCAA tournament play.

UCONN has sought to dominate its opponents in the tournament so far, opening up big leads and putting each game out of reach.

That is the path that must continue in game 5 of the tournament, thus continuing the pattern of games 1 thru 4.

If UCONN does not do that and gets caught in a nip and tuck, high pressure game with ND, then, in that event, this season's 3 game series will likely be the better predictor of the outcome.

I assume Geno and co. will coach and game plan for blistering offense and for tight defense, as it did against, say, Stanford early on, Duke, but not Baylor, midway through, Maryland and Kentucky lately.

 

[Bestiarius]

UConn doesn't need the high risk passes and frantic pace to beat ND. We have the size and talent to steadily build up a big lead throughout the game. Our defense can take care of the rest.

My contribution to the victory will be a pre-game dinner that includes Geno Auriemma's mother's famous, "The Look" repelling pasta sauce. If it works, it could become a tradition.

 

[connboy77]

One of the keys to the game is for Breanna Stewart to stay out of foul trouble. This is very important because of the injury to Stef. UCONN also needs Breanna to play the way she has since The Big East Tournament. Another key to the game is for Mo Jefferson to use her speed and ball handling ability to race by defenders to score easy baskets. Mo will be the fastest player on the floor Sunday. The third key to the game will be for Kiah Stokes to play up to her capabilities. At times this year Kiah has been dominant. She can rebound and block shots as well as play great defense. Kiah will be needed Sunday especially with Stef not being close to 100%.

 

[magical2]

DD GREAT JOB
A lot of time remaining still before game time
Hoping everyone is as healthy as possible going
into the game SD especially considering she will
not be 100 percent until after OUR season is over
TUES EVENING
Everyone is talking about STEWIE AND MOJO
the 3rd member of the super 3 amigos MORGAN
will be getting the props she deserves come
the end of the game The 3 of them will be
THE 3 TO SEE
GO HUSKIES
IRA

 

[Rb335]

Keys to UCONN Success

1. Defensive strategy. I liked the zone matchup against ND. The zone caused matchup issues for ND and slowed down their offense, allowing UCONN to get back into the game (BET). I also liked the look of face guarding Matheis against KU. I think this could be used for stretches, having Faris face guard McBride. McBride has proven to be the most influential player in the scoring column against the huskies. I think face guarding her and focusing on her is more important for stretches than Diggins. Stopping Diggins from facilitating is more importation, IMHO.

2. The Freshman. Stewart, Tuck, and Jefferson have come on strong in the NCAA Tournament. I think these three players play an integral role in reaching the finals. They provide depth at all positions and as of recently, have provided offensive output at multiple positions on the floor. Stewart is the biggest priority. She needs to be another offensive threat, especially with the injuries to Dolson. Stewart can also be important by protecting the rim, aka Griner effect. Jefferson needs to be able to handle the pressure and settle the offense. Tuck needs to be a strong body in the post, rebound, make open looks, and play solid defense.

3. Kelly Faris. Faris has the opportunity to be the most important player on the floor in a UCONN uniform. If Faris can play like the DPOY against McBride, I think this team can win. Faris also needs to be knocking down open 3 pt. attempts as KML will be guarded tightly. Lastly, Faris needs to be more careful with the basketball. As of recent, she has made some uncharacteristic lazy passes. Being another ball handler, she needs to remain calm, and use her senior experience and leadership to break the press and limit turnovers.

4. Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis. 2nd team all american and all everything offensive player for UCONN. She needs to do exactly that. She needs to put up big numbers on the board. No disappearing act, no hesitation. KML needs to be assertive and dominant. She is the player who needs to make the big basket at the big moments with no hesitation or fear.

5. Dolson's health. This could be a big key to the game. How healthy will the big girl be? Can she run the floor? Can she facilitate the offense? We all saw the St. Johns game without her. Dolson needs to play a solid game and push through any pain.

6. Breaking the Pressure. As mentioned above, limiting turnovers is crucial. Jefferson, Faris, Hartley, and Doty need to be confident and composed while breaking the pressure. Don't show the ball to Diggins. The last thing UCONN needs is easy transition opportunities for ND.

7. The 3 Ball. Last time Uconn faced ND, UCONN failed to convert on a 3 pt. attempt. Being such a huge part of the UCONN offense, KML, Faris, Doty, Hartley, Tuck, Jefferson, Stewart, and Dolson need to knock down open attempts because they will be few and far between. The offense also needs to set monster screens to open KML. She also needs to be assertive when looking for her shot from behind the arc.

8. Crunch Time. Assuming this game goes down to the wire, which coach will be better prepared and which players will have more composure at the end of the game. 3 times, ND showed the advantage. Can this motivated young group close out a full 4o minutes? I think they can.

These are just 8 keys that immediately stick out to me. Got the idea of writing this post after reading JA's 10 keys to the game that focused more on twitter, fashion, ND football, and Geno quotes at a convention. There are more things that UCONN needs to take care of, but a full 40 minutes out of this deeper and motivated group can spell trouble for the Irish and potentially #8 for UCONN country.

 

[McHuskyFan]

Wow ... I finally had time to log on and spend some time here on the 'yard. Insightful & informative analysis, Doggydaddy! I learn so much from your pregame postings. Thanks!!

I've just had this gut feeling for over a week now that things will finally go our way with the Irish ... (typing this with my fingers x'd )

 

[uconn_nyc]

Wow ... I finally had time to log on and spend some time here on the 'yard. Insightful & informative analysis, Doggydaddy! I learn so much from your pregame postings. Thanks!!

I've just had this gut feeling for over a week now that things will finally go our way with the Irish ... (typing this with my fingers x'd )

Me too! Considering the importance of tomorrow's game, I'm strangely calm , confident.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Great job Doggydaddy! Your frustrations are understandable. There was a time when the better part of my days was spent pouring through the Racing Form.