UConn -9.5 v. San Diego St

[HeGotGame]

Opener.

Sounds about right. Let's hope the 3 point shooting for both teams come back to normal from Sunday.

 

[Phoenixhusky]

I am hoping we shoot better from the three as well. I hope we got out bad shooting game behind us.

 

[IndyLives]

Bet Uconn minus the points. Bet the Over. Winning strategy all year. This team is locked in and on a mission.

 

[elmcityboy]

apparently they flew from spokane to san diego late last night, then obviously have to fly from san diego to boston in the next day or two.

i know that people overblow the travel angle of postseason sports all the time, especially now that everyone charters flights, but that is quite a bit of flying for three days, and the west coast-to-east coast flight is particularly notorious.

 

[Husky25]

I am hoping we shoot better from the three as well. I hope we got out bad shooting game behind us.

Watching the game be played in Barclays Arena was weird, bordering on uncomfortably dark. Darker than MSG, where stage lighting is also utilized, but MSG seems brighter. I wonder if the darkness affected depth perception, similar to past Final Fours since they started playing in Football stadiums. The slope of the seating behind the baskets is gradual and deep compared to a proper basketball arena.

It will be nice to see UConn play in a more conventional arena next week.

 

[auror]

UConn up to -11 on Draftkings.

 

[Tenspro2002]

apparently they flew from spokane to san diego late last night, then obviously have to fly from san diego to boston in the next day or two.

i know that people overblow the travel angle of postseason sports all the time, especially now that everyone charters flights, but that is quite a bit of flying for three days, and the west coast-to-east coast flight is particularly notorious.

West to East sucks.

You either have to take a red-eye (horrible for us middle-aged folks, less so but still not great for college kids) or basically lose a whole day traveling.

 

[Samoo]

apparently they flew from spokane to san diego late last night, then obviously have to fly from san diego to boston in the next day or two.

i know that people overblow the travel angle of postseason sports all the time, especially now that everyone charters flights, but that is quite a bit of flying for three days, and the west coast-to-east coast flight is particularly notorious.

I'm 61 and just did twenty hours total in the air - two 10-hour flights broken up with a 24 hour layover. It took me about 4 days to recover. I'm sure that these 20 year olds can handle it

 

[Travelman6]

i know that people overblow the travel angle of postseason sports all the time, especially now that everyone charters flights, but that is quite a bit of flying for three days, and the west coast-to-east coast flight is particularly notorious.

I really think they do. They are young adults, kids even, they won't be bothered especially if they come a few days in advance. I don't think the body even feels anything, regarding time zone difference 3 hours and under.

 

[Brochacho]

apparently they flew from spokane to san diego late last night, then obviously have to fly from san diego to boston in the next day or two.

i know that people overblow the travel angle of postseason sports all the time, especially now that everyone charters flights, but that is quite a bit of flying for three days, and the west coast-to-east coast flight is particularly notorious.

Plus the game tips 4:30 their time. We have a huge advantage Thursday before even considering how our team matches up or the fan split.

 

[Mr. French]

I got a AZ ML + UConn -10 parlay.

We’ll see where the line goes, but I’d guess it moves higher.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I think -11 is too high.

Like I've said before, the tail of our distribution is extremely long -- we can win any game by 30. The oddsmakers are accounting for that by shifting our point spread higher, but that's not the best way to account for that.

My other theory is that they are desperate to get money on our opponents because they're over-leveraged on us. We're currently -250 to win the East, which is insane.

 

[Mr.Aztec]

Well here we are my friends. As I foretold. Trolling aside, I’m not naive. It will be a tall order for my boys to beat UConn.

 

[auror]

I think -11 is too high.

Like I've said before, the tail of our distribution is extremely long -- we can win any game by 30. The oddsmakers are accounting for that by shifting our point spread higher, but that's not the best way to account for that.

My other theory is that they are desperate to get money on our opponents because they're over-leveraged on us. We're currently -250 to win the East, which is insane.

The last two games had spreads pushed several points past the analytical expected margin and we covered easily (The second one almost got back doored, but that took a monumental ineptness from three from us).

We're a 33 adjEM team now in KenPom but we've been playing like a 37 adjEM team for a while.

 

[Tenspro2002]

The last two games had spreads pushed several points past the analytical expected margin and we covered easily (The second one almost got back doored, but that took a monumental ineptness from three from us).

We're a 33 adjEM team now in KenPom but we've been playing like a 37 adjEM team for a while.

There's a very good chance we cover -11. I guess my point is that I think we uniquely have a higher "mean point differential" than our "median point differential" and that these spreads are actually reflecting the mean (i.e. the fact that we can win huge) when they're supposed to be representing the median (equal probability on both sides).

 

[TheShot1990]

Watching the game be played in Barclays Arena was weird, bordering on uncomfortably dark. Darker than MSG, where stage lighting is also utilized, but MSG seems brighter. I wonder if the darkness affected depth perception, similar to past Final Fours since they started playing in Football stadiums. The slope of the seating behind the baskets is gradual and deep compared to a proper basketball arena.

It will be nice to see UConn play in a more conventional arena next week.

Also I think we were suffering from sticky balls. Hopefully our balls are more slippery in Boston.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Also I think we were suffering from sticky balls. Hopefully our balls are more slippery in Boston.

Duke didn't have a problem with those balls.

 

[TheShot1990]

Duke didn't have a problem with those balls.

Perhaps Duke members played with their sticky balls longer than most to get used to them.

 

[Scot-e]

I have a feeling that they are not going to get as many open looks from 3 against us. We are more athletic and taller then Yale. We can't possibly shoot any worse then last game so it is not unreasonable to think we can do better.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

 

[Mr. French]

I think -11 is too high.

Like I've said before, the tail of our distribution is extremely long -- we can win any game by 30. The oddsmakers are accounting for that by shifting our point spread higher, but that's not the best way to account for that.

My other theory is that they are desperate to get money on our opponents because they're over-leveraged on us. We're currently -250 to win the East, which is insane.

Second part is probably true. You even see the line creeping because people see UConn and juggernaut and bet them.

One reason I got a quick parlay in at -10 before I could evaluate closer to game, I assume it’s only going up.

 

[auror]

There's a very good chance we cover -11. I guess my point is that I think we uniquely have a higher "mean point differential" than our "median point differential" and that these spreads are actually reflecting the mean (i.e. the fact that we can win huge) when they're supposed to be representing the median (equal probability on both sides).

I think our difference of opinion is that I think the median is moving higher too. It's not like we're covering 50% of the time, but when we cover, covering by a lot. We're 65% for the season ATS, and similar splits in conference play. And our adjEM has gone from like 27 to 33, so the expected lines have increased but we're still 4-1 ATS last 5. We haven't hit our true equilibrium after we went up another gear with Clingan and Castle fully healthy and integrated.

 

[Husky25]

Also I think we were suffering from sticky balls. Hopefully our balls are more slippery in Boston.

Not touching that one (Though I might have just then).

 

[HeGotGame]

This is out to -11.

For reference, the two biggest Sweet 16 upsets are Purdue was -12.5 against St. Peters in 2022 and Duke was -13 against IU in 2002.

#doomed

 

[August_West]

Perhaps Duke members played with their sticky balls longer than most to get used to them.

You can watch it on TikTok