We can win with him for sure, but we do need to bring in a center who maybe does different things than he does and is also capable. But I think he’s our guy.
I'm wondering if I've spent so much time in the asylum I'm starting to doubt my own sanity. So this post is as much of a rationalization for myself as anything.
Here's my opinion and hopefully a reasonable rationale:
- We are not going to have a player of Donovan or Sanogo's caliber in the front court next year no matter what happens, and probably for the foreseeable future. Those guys are unique talents. That means to maintain our top-25 aspirations, we need to have elevated bench play in the frontcourt--more than Samson provided this year. Right now, Donovan's absurd dominance is making up for Samson's mistakes. Check the +/-.
- We are also not going to have a First-Team All-American or a player shooting 50/40/90 in the backcourt. This means to maintain our top-25 aspirations, we need an overall higher level of play than Samson can reasonably provide in the frontcourt as a starter considering his current improvement trajectory.
- There are 2 things I want out of a bench big: rebounding and good positional defense without fouling. I don't need scoring or highlight plays. We need an injection of energy with de minimis mistakes.
I firmly believe that with expected improvements, Samson can be a solid bench piece that helps our team win games at a high level. Diarra had a crazy level of improvement and still was a bench piece. Expecting much more than that from Samson is possible, but can't be predicted.
If we're seriously going to think about Samson's ability to be a starter, let's take a look at our last few starting center's per-40 stats in conference games their junior year (or sophomore for Clingan). I went back to Thabeet, and didn't include tweeners like Whaley and Facey.
Samson: 12/6/1... 2 BLK, 2 TO, 8 fouls
Clingan: 21/14/3...4 BLK, 2 TO, 4 foul
Sanogo: 23/11/2...1 BLK, 3 TO, 4 fouls
Carlton: 12/11/2... 2 BLK, 4 TO, 7 fouls
Brimah: 12/8/0... 4 BLK, 2 TO, 5 fouls
Oriakhi: 13/8/1... 2 BLK, 3 TO, 4 fouls
Armstrong: 12/10/2... 6 BLK, 3 TO, 4 fouls
Thabeet: 15/13/1... 6 BLK, 2 TO, 3 Fouls
Simply put, he's fouling twice as much as he should, not blocking enough shots, and rebounding half as much as he should compared to his peers. His scoring is on pace with centers historically, but that's not what we need from him and certainly not what we need from a starter.
Samson is going to be an AWESOME bench piece for us with an injection of energy next year. He's going to get into the film room to learn how to minimize those fouls and to maximize his rebounding ability. We are asking more than he's capable of if we think he can be a starter on a top-25 (or better yet, top-10) team.
Check back in next March. If I'm wrong I will gladly eat all the crow.