The next dominoes (August 21 edition) | The Boneyard

The next dominoes (August 21 edition)

shizzle787

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With news of the B1G contract extension, and Kevin Warren expecting to expand to 20, here are my next dominoes:

Notre Dame will stay independent. Reports have suggested they will get about $60 million a year from NBC.

The B1G then expands by four schools by adding Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon.

The SEC will not sit idly by: they expand by four schools by adding Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia. Miami is the first choice out but the SEC is content with two FL schools. All four schools have to pony up about 300 million but they will finance the amount owed over a 15-20 year period.

The Big 12 is up next: they add the corner 4 schools to sit at 16: AZ, CO, ASU, and UU.

The ACC at this point is down to 10 schools. Notre Dame decides to bolt for Olympic sports to the B1G, tipping their hand about potential future football alignment down the line. The league expands by adding two schools: UConn and SMU. Memphis misses out due to academics, USF due to Miami blocking them, and Temple due to UConn being the more high-profile choice. No Big 12 schools (UCF, Cincy, WVU) bolt for the ACC as the pay-out in the latter is lower and there is a large Big 12 exit fee.

The Pac-12 is holding the bag. However, the twelve MW schools join Oregon State and Washington State under the Pac-12 banner to keep the NCAA credits and autonomy position.

Down to ten members, the Big East expands to 12 by adding Gonzaga and St. Mary's.

As the MW is no more, the AAC is up next. The league is unable to poach Sun Belt schools and settles for UTEP as its 14th member.

The Sun Belt and the MAC both stay put.

C-USA is down to eight members. They add McNeese State and Tarleton State to get back to ten.

The WCC responds to its departures by adding Grand Canyon and Seattle.

The Southland is down to nine members again, but they stay put.

The WAC is at eight schools, but will have six football members, so they stay put as they decline to take on more Division 2 schools.
 
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Dream on.

The ACC will remain together for the remaining term of the GORs.

If you believe the GOR can be defeated then please explain why no one has not already bolted.
 

shizzle787

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Dream on.

The ACC will remain together for the remaining term of the GORs.

If you believe the GOR can be defeated then please explain why no one has not already bolted.
The SEC is not going to expand past 16 unless the B1G goes first. The GOR won't be defeated: the schools will have to pay it. They will just finance it over a 15-20 year period.
 
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The SEC is not going to expand past 16 unless the B1G goes first. The GOR won't be defeated: the schools will have to pay it. They will just finance it over a 15-20 year period.
I think the B1G would go after UNC-UVA if it could, but it can't. B1G needs to go south but the ACC is locked up. Finance the GOR?
 
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The SEC is not going to expand past 16 unless the B1G goes first. The GOR won't be defeated: the schools will have to pay it. They will just finance it over a 15-20 year period.
There would be little incentive for the remaining schools in the ACC to allow them to finance the cost. Similarly there is little incentive for ESPN to take four teams whose rights they already own at a discount and suddenly pay more for them to justify the SECs growth. If the GOR won't be defeated, the ACC schools are staying put until the mid-30s. If the GOR can be defeated, the Big Ten absolutely wants to be involved in discussing those schools (and has more money to offer in its deal and partnerships than the SEC... plus the academic linkage that a school like UVA would crave ahead of the SEC football culture).
 
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I think the B1G would go after UNC-UVA if it could, but it can't. B1G needs to go south but the ACC is locked up. Finance the GOR?
Some ACC members may find a way to wiggle out of the GOR with a price tag. SEC in particular may want schools like Clemson, Miami and GT.
 
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The SEC will not want Georgia Tech. The B10 is Georgia Tech’s best bet.
 
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Some ACC members may find a way to wiggle out of the GOR with a price tag. SEC in particular may want schools like Clemson, Miami and GT.
I thought that if enough schools wanted to jump ship that the GOR would be obsolete?
 
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I thought that if enough schools wanted to jump ship that the GOR would be obsolete?
That would help UConn get into the ACC if that happens but why would a team want to leave the ACC for the B12?
 
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The SEC is not going to expand past 16 unless the B1G goes first. The GOR won't be defeated: the schools will have to pay it. They will just finance it over a 15-20 year period.

You do know...that you can't just pay out with a GOR...

It is not a financial penalty...the $100+ million Exit Fee is that...

The ACC GOR grants all media rights to the conference...irrevocably.

"Each of the Member Institutions acknowledges that the grant of Rights during the entire Term is irrevocable and effective until the end of the Term regardless of whether the Member Institution withdraws from the Conference during the Term or otherwise ceases to participate as a member of the Conference".

A program can leave, pay their $100 million Exit Fee, and the ACC still owns their media rights until 2037.
 
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You do know...that you can't just pay out with a GOR...

It is not a financial penalty...the $100+ million Exit Fee is that...

The ACC GOR grants all media rights to the conference...irrevocably.

"Each of the Member Institutions acknowledges that the grant of Rights during the entire Term is irrevocable and effective until the end of the Term regardless of whether the Member Institution withdraws from the Conference during the Term or otherwise ceases to participate as a member of the Conference".

A program can leave, pay their $100 million Exit Fee, and the ACC still owns their media rights until 2037.
Yeah, the theory is everything has a price. Maybe, a court would determine the price is $300 million or more. I presume there are arguments that members could make that staying will ruin their athletic departments and that they were poorly advised by conference leadership when they signed the GOR. Maybe they can sue the conference for leading them to ruin. There is sure to be all kinds of blame to go around in due time.

The thing that people don't know is if a court might simply tell the school trying to leave that there is no price and they either need to stay in the ACC or leave and lose their broadcast rights. That's the real fear because no one has tested it yet.
 
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There isn't a price if the owner doesn't desire to sell.

The courts can not force a sale and state a settlement price unless it is an issue of public domain (and media rights are not such an issue).

That would be a "taking".
 
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Believe me, if there is a way out, FSU legal folks will have found it. I, like all fans of the program, hope that they can.

The GOR is a very simple document by design....no exit procedure mentioned, no damages...a straight irrevocable assignment of media rights for a set period. And that doesn't leave wiggle room...
 
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Infamously, FSU once went after high schools that had appropriated use of the logo without authorization. Didn't want to pick on high schools but precedent was not going to be established. It's a matter of ownership.

According to the agreement, Salem High and Memorial Middle must stop using the Seminole head and spear design. It has until Aug. 1 to remove them from their football helmets.

The local school board honcho....

"It's a moving target," she said. "We're already looking at a $10 million deficit. Now we're going to have to replace gym floors at both schools, order new business cards, new uniforms and band apparel ..."




 
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Some ACC members may find a way to wiggle out of the GOR with a price tag. SEC in particular may want schools like Clemson, Miami and GT.
The SEC isn’t going after Clemson Nor Georgia Tech. It already has the more prestigious school in each state. They will be vetoed by their respective flagships. And don’t think for a minute that South Carolina and Georgia will be treated like Texas A&M. I doubt they want Miami either. Private school that draws flies.
 
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The SEC isn’t going after Clemson Nor Georgia Tech. It already has the more prestigious school in each state. They will be vetoed by their respective flagships. And don’t think for a minute that South Carolina and Georgia will be treated like Texas A&M. I doubt they want Miami either. Private school that draws flies.
The SEC could take FSU and wrap up Florida. Miami and UCF are small potatoes compared to UF and FSU. I would think the B1G wants FSU badly.
 
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With news of the B1G contract extension, and Kevin Warren expecting to expand to 20, here are my next dominoes:

Notre Dame will stay independent. Reports have suggested they will get about $60 million a year from NBC.

The B1G then expands by four schools by adding Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon.

The SEC will not sit idly by: they expand by four schools by adding Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia. Miami is the first choice out but the SEC is content with two FL schools. All four schools have to pony up about 300 million but they will finance the amount owed over a 15-20 year period.

The Big 12 is up next: they add the corner 4 schools to sit at 16: AZ, CO, ASU, and UU.

The ACC at this point is down to 10 schools. Notre Dame decides to bolt for Olympic sports to the B1G, tipping their hand about potential future football alignment down the line. The league expands by adding two schools: UConn and SMU. Memphis misses out due to academics, USF due to Miami blocking them, and Temple due to UConn being the more high-profile choice. No Big 12 schools (UCF, Cincy, WVU) bolt for the ACC as the pay-out in the latter is lower and there is a large Big 12 exit fee.

The Pac-12 is holding the bag. However, the twelve MW schools join Oregon State and Washington State under the Pac-12 banner to keep the NCAA credits and autonomy position.

Down to ten members, the Big East expands to 12 by adding Gonzaga and St. Mary's.

As the MW is no more, the AAC is up next. The league is unable to poach Sun Belt schools and settles for UTEP as its 14th member.

The Sun Belt and the MAC both stay put.

C-USA is down to eight members. They add McNeese State and Tarleton State to get back to ten.

The WCC responds to its departures by adding Grand Canyon and Seattle.

The Southland is down to nine members again, but they stay put.

The WAC is at eight schools, but will have six football members, so they stay put as they decline to take on more Division 2 schools.
How soon?
 
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Clemson is ranked No. 4, Miami is No. 16 nationwide. Also, the SEC has more than one team from some states.
 

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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I'm going to do an edit of this as I feel the ACC GOR might be even more of a mess than I previously thought.

Therefore, I have Notre Dame staying independent and staying in the ACC for Olympic sports.

I do see the B1G adding Cal, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington to get to 20 schools. (Can you imagine 13 B1G schools in the NCAA tournament?)

The SEC is unable to poach ACC schools due to the GOR but also does not want to dilute their payout so they will continue to wait until the ACC contract is closer to completion.

The Big 12 then strikes by adding the corner 4 schools (Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Arizona State) to get to 16.

This leaves the Pac-12 with just 2 members: Oregon State and Washington State. They strike up a deal with the 12 MW schools to merge under the Pac-12 name. They invite Gonzaga as an Olympic sports member to balance Hawaii's football-only arrangement and give the league 14 basketball and 14 football schools.

The WCC at this point is down to 8 members. They add Grand Canyon and Seattle to get back to 10.

The WAC is down to 9 members, but 7 of them play FCS football. The league decides against expansion as there are no viable Division 1 candidates.
 

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