The next dominoes (April 11 edition)

[shizzle787]

Although Florida State and Clemson are ruffling feathers, it will be a few years before they get out of the ACC.

Without further ado, here is the next dominoes:

I suspect the Power 4 conferences will stay put for at least the next 18-24 months so the suspense begins with the Big East.

For various reasons (inventory, keeping up with the expansion of the four other major leagues, and the disaster of only getting three teams in this year), I believe the Big East will expand very soon.

Ultimately I believe the league will add three teams: Gonzaga, Dayton, and St. Louis. TV will pay for the expansion, and away we go.

The next move is the final consolidation of the Pac-12 and MW out west. Although not the first choice of WOSU, the leagues merge under the Pac-12 banner.

With St. Louis and Dayton leaving for the Big East, VCU looks around and realizes it's time to leave. The American picks up the phone and invites VCU to get to 14 Olympic sports members.

On the football side, WKU decides to stay in CUSA. With that wrapped up, the league adds Tarleton State to get to 12 members.

The MAC stays put at 13 after WKU turns them down.

With the departures of Gonzaga and WOSU, the WCC is down to 8 schools. The league holds its breath and adds Grand Canyon and Seattle to get to 10 schools.

The Atlantic 10 at this point is down to 12 members. Some in the league want to stay put, but ultimately the league adds two schools to get to 14: Belmont and Charleston.

The Missouri Valley is down to 11 members and decides to get back to 12 by adding a school not publicly considered previously: Oral Roberts.

The CAA is down to 12 schools after the departures of Charleston and Delaware. The league responds by adding Fairfield and High Point.

The MAAC stays put at 12 schools.

The Big South responds by adding Queens. That league is back to 9 members.

This is where things get ugly. The WAC is down to 7 members, and the vultures start circling.

The Summit (down to 8 members) grabs the three Utah schools: Utah Valley, Southern Utah, and Utah Tech. This stabilizes the league without adding a Division 2 school.

The WCC comes back around and decides to add Cal Baptist to go to 11 schools.

The Southland then picks up the last three schools: Stephen F. Austin, Abilene Christian, and UT-Arlington. The WAC dissolves.

The ASUN then adds Valdosta State (D2) to get back to 12 members and six football schools. The UAC dissolves and the ASUN sponsors FCS football again.

This moves result in 365 Division 1 schools, 30 conferences, and 136 FBS schools.

 

[UConn Dan]

I don't see the Big East expanding with anyone other than Gonzaga and I don't think that happens. Big East will hold until they see what happens with the ACC. There may be a merger with the leftovers and they'll return to a hybrid conference.

 

[Rufus]

WKU has tried for years to get into the MAC. If the MAC decides to extend an invite to them to be #14, I don't see them turning it down. The MAC didn't add them a couple years ago because Middle Tennessee didn't want to join with WKU and the MAC didn't want an odd number of teams in its divisional breakdown. WKU also tried to join when it first moved up to FBS level football.

Also, I disagree that it will be a few years before FSU and Clemson leave the ACC. There will be some sort of settlement between them and the ACC before the end of this year and I see those moves happening in time for the 2025 season, or 2026 at the latest. My money right now is that this coming school year will be the last year those schools are in the ACC.

 

[Steve1981]

WKU has tried for years to get into the MAC. If the MAC decides to extend an invite to them to be #14, I don't see them turning it down. The MAC didn't add them a couple years ago because Middle Tennessee didn't want to join with WKU and the MAC didn't want an odd number of teams in its divisional breakdown. WKU also tried to join when it first moved up to FBS level football.

Also, I disagree that it will be a few years before FSU and Clemson leave the ACC. There will be some sort of settlement between them and the ACC before the end of this year and I see those moves happening in time for the 2025 season, or 2026 at the latest. My money right now is that this coming school year will be the last year those schools are in the ACC.

Agree with Rufus. While the MAC is prepared to run with 13, thanks CUSA for pushing the MAC to commit to an odd number, it's up to WKU. Believe the MAC accepting them as number 14 will happen, but they did not check enough boxes to be a stand alone #13 2 years ago.

Something will short itself out this year with the ACC, in time for the new CFP contract.
Then hopefully UConn will get that ACC invite, trigger the Big East to raid the A10 again. Easing the pain of primary hoop fans at UMass. Win, win, win.

 

[NHRich]

What I don’t want to see is UConn gets in the ACC
and before the first season that league blows up. Had enough of that script.

What I’d love to see is UConn in the Big 10 so that league can really own New York City!

 

[NHRich]

Sorry

 

[CL82]

What I don’t want to see is UConn gets in the ACC
and before the first season that league blows up. Had enough of that script.

What I’d love to see is UConn in the Big 10 so that league can really own New York City!

Then you probably need to become the Big Ten commissioner to make that to happen.

 

[freescooter]

What I don’t want to see is UConn gets in the ACC
and before the first season that league blows up. Had enough of that script.

What I’d love to see is UConn in the Big 10 so that league can really own New York City!

Amazing. Simply amazing.

 

[NHRich]

That’s what I’d love to see, I expect nothing good. Same old crap.

 

[metsfan2323]

Hopefully the next move is UConn to a better conference.

 

[KryHavok]

Although Florida State and Clemson are ruffling feathers, it will be a few years before they get out of the ACC.

It seems wannabe podcasters are predicting the ACC collapse may happen in just a few months. Not like you need my encouragement, but I think you'll need to modify your CR next moves fairly soo, oh, and I do enjoy reading your creativity.

 

[freescooter]

I wonder how everyone feels about Swofford now. I think this will be much more similar to the B12 breakup than the Big East. They will loose 2-3 teams, most likely Clemson, FSU and one of Miami, UNC or Virginia. Maybe the B12 tries to pick up a few, but I don’t expect it. I think ultimately there will be a negotiated settlement at a fairly high cost that makes it only worth it if you have a P2 landing spot. If I were Clemson, honestly I’d be nervous. To use a basketball phrase, they aren’t really a blue blood. They aren’t Texas or Oklahoma. They are Clemson, the 2nd university in the South Carolina system. Their football may be better but their prestige and political pull is second to the University of South Carolina.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Here are some interesting spins to all of this.

 

[Patman]

Here are some interesting spins to all of this.

that seems very favorable to FSU, Clemson... that doesnt mean that isn't the basis of what will happen.

 

[Redding Husky]

I put this in another thread. Probably not many saw it. I don't think anything happens for UConn until the ACC completes blows up. Then the remnants of the ACC and PAC 12 join with a few others. I don't see any other option for these schools. I added the US News rankings for fun. Not a bad academic conference. We may need to send flowers to Syracuse and BC to get their vote. I don't think anyone is certain where Duke, UVA, and GT go. I think at least one or two of them end up here. IMHO, this is our best (and only) chance in the foreseeable future.

EAST
-----
Syracuse - 67
Boston College - 39
UConn - 58
Duke - 7
Wake Forest - 47
Georgia Tech - 33
USF - 89

WEST
------
Tulane - 73
SMU - 89
Cal - 15
Stanford - 3
SDSU - 105
Oregon State - 142
Washington State - 178

 

[KryHavok]

I put this in another thread. Probably not many saw it. I don't think anything happens for UConn until the ACC completes blows up. Then the remnants of the ACC and PAC 12 join with a few others. I don't see any other option for these schools. I added the US News rankings for fun. Not a bad academic conference. We may need to send flowers to Syracuse and BC to get their vote. I don't think anyone is certain where Duke, UVA, and GT go. I think at least one or two of them end up here. IMHO, this is our best (and only) chance in the foreseeable future.

EAST
-----
Syracuse - 67
Boston College - 39
UConn - 58
Duke - 7
Wake Forest - 47
Georgia Tech - 33
USF - 89

WEST
------
Tulane - 73
SMU - 89
Cal - 15
Stanford - 3
SDSU - 105
Oregon State - 142
Washington State - 178

As far as fantasy CR goes, this list would put UConn in the middle in terms of academic (based merely on the US News rankings), middle for football potential (realistic if the offense can move the ball, defense can stop the ball, and ST can get decent field position), and tops for hoops. Might be good for baseball too. Part old ACC, old Big East, and old PAC. It seems to work out in UConn's favors, so it likely won't happen.

 

[XStorrsion]

I put this in another thread. Probably not many saw it. I don't think anything happens for UConn until the ACC completes blows up. Then the remnants of the ACC and PAC 12 join with a few others. I don't see any other option for these schools. I added the US News rankings for fun. Not a bad academic conference. We may need to send flowers to Syracuse and BC to get their vote. I don't think anyone is certain where Duke, UVA, and GT go. I think at least one or two of them end up here. IMHO, this is our best (and only) chance in the foreseeable future.

EAST
-----
Syracuse - 67
Boston College - 39
UConn - 58
Duke - 7
Wake Forest - 47
Georgia Tech - 33
USF - 89

WEST
------
Tulane - 73
SMU - 89
Cal - 15
Stanford - 3
SDSU - 105
Oregon State - 142
Washington State - 178

With our luck, this scenario happens but Duke and GT go the Big 12 and we're stuck with Memphis and UNLV instead. Might as well add Temple and Rice to secure our mediocre position at that point.. doomed but realistically where our football belongs. Even worse, imagine UConn getting skipped over and not getting the invite.

EAST
-----
Syracuse - 67
Boston College - 39
UConn - 58
Wake Forest - 47
USF - 89
Tulane - 73
Memphis - 269
Temple - 89

WEST
------
SMU - 89
Cal - 15
Stanford - 3
SDSU - 105
Oregon State - 142
Washington State - 178
UNLV - 269
Rice - 17

 

[cellocgg]

With our luck, this scenario happens but Duke and GT go the Big 12 and we're stuck with Memphis and UNLV instead. Might as well add Temple and Rice to secure our mediocre position at that point.. doomed but realistically where our football belongs. Even worse, imagine UConn getting skipped over and not getting the invite.

EAST
-----
Syracuse - 67
Boston College - 39
UConn - 58
Wake Forest - 47
USF - 89
Tulane - 73
Memphis - 269
Temple - 89

WEST
------
SMU - 89
Cal - 15
Stanford - 3
SDSU - 105
Oregon State - 142
Washington State - 178
UNLV - 269
Rice - 17

At this point who wants this league and the media payout won't be much better than what we get now. We might as well stay in the BE where we have great basketball, only thing I would consider is the B12