The bottom of the American is so bad that it's actually helping the top

[freescooter]

AAC needs to invite Wichita State for basketball only. It will make the conference better overall. God knows we need some more decent OOC games.

Nope. Nyet! Nay! No friggin' way. No Chance. The only way that would happen would be if they started a D1A football program first.

 

[Onions]

Temple just happens to be having an awful year, but I doubt they stay there too long. They are a program with a pretty distinguished history and have been good under Dunphy. So I'm noty overly concerned about them. I admit to being surprised by SMU. they are better than I thought. So my view is UConn, Cincy, Memphis, Temple, SMU all make up the upper echelon most of the time. I don't put too much stock in conference RPI. Individual RPI matters. Conference RPI not so much. It can mean a bunch of mediocre teams (Faux Big East) with none that bad but none that anyone expects to to go anywhere. It can mean the AAC with are real split personality. Or really the SEC with a couple of real top teams but a bunch that don't scare anyone, even the dreck from other conferences. And as I've said 100 times before, the way RPI is calculated makes bad teams in good conferences look much better than they really are, since you essentially get participation points.

Long term I'm not so much concerned that UConn won't be a tournament team mostly. My concern is the lower RPI of the dreck impacts seeding and ultimately any chance of being more than a Sweet 16ish team year in a good year and 1 and done most of the time. When something like 87% of Final Four teams have been seeded 3 or higher since the Tournament went to 64 teams (the paper is out there somewhere but its on some Statistics website, not a sports one) you can see how important seeding is to tournament success.

The reason the top 3 seeds often get to the final four is because they are the best teams, not any voodoo about where they are seeded. It's only the weaker teams that worry about seeding match-ups. Become a program that beats top 10 teams regularly and you'll get to the final weekend often enough, I don't care what the seeding is.

 

[upstater]

One thing we're not accounting for in these threads as we dread the departure of Louisville and the addition of 2 really really really bad teams in ECU and Tulane (Tulsa is at 117 right now RPI) is Rutgers.

Rutgers is 180.

You might argue that the departure of Rutgers cancels out one of the new additions. It wouldn't be crazy to imagine, say, Tulsa having more basketball success over the next 5 years than Rutgers.

It still means you gain two bad teams and lose one really good one though.

 

[CL82]

There ya go.

Ironically, most US citizens self identify as middle class.

 

[Inyatkin]

It wouldn't be crazy to imagine, say, Tulsa having more basketball success over the next 5 years than Rutgers.

Tulsa, or East Carolina, or Quinnipiac, or WestConn.
Rutgers is the worst.

 

[tzznandrew]

Isn't the entire run of success directly attributable to Bill Self? That's not easily replicable.

Not quite. Bill Self was there from 1998-2000. They made the E8 with him in 2000 with him, and made another tournament in 1999 with him as the coach. But they were a S16 team in 1994 and 1995 under Tracy Moore (with tournament appearances in 1996 and 1997 as well), and were a tournament team in 2003 and 2004 under Mike Ruffin.

Are they great right now? No. But there is some history. They were very good in the Missouri Valley Conference, and struggled some in transitions elsewhere.

Again, of remaining teams, short of adding a basketball only like VCU, St. Louis, or Witchita State, there aren't a ton of football/basketball teams that have had success. Tulsa has had more in the last 20 years than most of those out there.

 

[freescooter]

The reason the top 3 seeds often get to the final four is because they are the best teams, not any voodoo about where they are seeded. It's only the weaker teams that worry about seeding match-ups. Become a program that beats top 10 teams regularly and you'll get to the final weekend often enough, I don't care what the seeding is.

Well that's partly right if you assume seeding is very accurate. And maybe it is for the top teams. But in the AAC you won't get as many chances to play or beat top 10 teams. And you can't depend on out of conference games to do it for you. Those are too unpredictable year to year. And the difference between a 3 and a 4 or a 4 and a 6 is huge in terms of how difficult the road is and how likely you are to progress. If you're higher than that, you need to be thrilled with a Sweet 16. And with RPI as the dominant, that is to say virtually only, factor taken into consideration in seeding, and considering its problems, this is a serious problem.

 

[metsfan2323]

Again, of remaining teams, short of adding a basketball only like VCU, St. Louis, or Witchita State, there aren't a ton of football/basketball teams that have had success. Tulsa has had more in the last 20 years than most of those out there.

Yup, the people asking for Wichita State or VCU should open up their arms for Tulsa, they have a great arena and their fans will sell the place out after the conference upgrade. Give them a chance.

BTW the Tulsa metropolitan area has over 900,000 people, the Wichita metropolitan area is around 600,000.

 

[Husky25]

Thanks for the correction. Just sloppy on my part. I was going to be specific and should have been because there is little that gets by this group. The salient point of course is that things are unpredictable and in a constant state of flux. There really is no way of knowing the future.

Certainly the AAC is at a distinct disadvantage relative to the P5 conferences and that could impact UConn's future negatively. On the other hand there are things going on that can impact the P5 set up adversely such as the concern over concussions and the impact that is having on football. That's a huge game changer that remains to be seen how it plays out.

As they say we'll all know what happens in 20 minutes.

The AAC is at a distinct disadvantage relative to the P5 conferences, but they are at the top of the G5 and mid-majors. The way the commits have been coming in for Ollie, UConn should be good for the next 6 years. If Ollie can put Napier in the lottery, is at UConn for the long term, and continues to lead kids to the NBA after Napier, recruiting shouldn't fall off at all. They will be a major program in a mid-major conference.

 

[Husky25]

I told you dump ECU for BB and add someone like VCU or Wichita State.
I expect Temple to be better in the future. Conferences like the AAC only exist for individual members to leave. One or two basketball onlies create money this conference lacks.

I think it is very dangerous to add 1 sport only schools to the conference. The Big East proved that a divided house cannot stand.

 

[upstater]

Yup, the people asking for Wichita State or VCU should open up their arms for Tulsa, they have a great arena and their fans will sell the place out after the conference upgrade. Give them a chance.

BTW the Tulsa metropolitan area has over 900,000 people, the Wichita metropolitan area is around 600,000.

Another thing about Tulsa. It is culturally apart and distinct from the rest of the state. Tulsa is more Plains, Kansas and Missouri, than it is a Texas-style, SW type of region.

 

[Slasher]

In a semi-related note, Mick Cronin is close to signing an extension that will pay him $2.2M (+ bonuses) a year through 2021, making him the highest paid coach in the American (after Pitino leaves), and top 15 in the country.

 

[ctchamps]

There are other things to consider with this dichotomy. It's difficult to know whether this team would have made the improvements it has just recently made if it were in the old BE. Certainly a team that is a top ten team coming into the season or one that gains significant improvement in the first third of the season against the so called cupcakes, would be better off honing that development against a tougher conference.

But this years UConn team did not get that real bump in team play until several games into conference play. I am speculating that this UConn team benefited because the conference has five "bad" teams. Outside of that early road trip (bad travel conditions and a team not having an identity yet) this schedule has the potential of being very beneficial for UConn because they play a strong competitor every other game at the end of the regular season.

That old BE conference could have had a significant negative impact on the number of wins which could have put this team outside the bubble. Every year is different from the prior one. It's really hard to prove my point, but I don't know if Nolan or Brimah get's as much time to develop in the old BE. There is no way of knowing if KO can experiment with line ups as much as he has done in that conference vs. this years AAC. Players may not have had as much time to get comfortable with a transfer player like Kromah in that conference vs. this one. The team, which has a fragile mental make up, could have sustained long losing streaks and not bounced back from them.

Point is that there are positives and negatives with the AAC configuration. Jumping only to tournament seeding overlooks the progress a team needs to make to get into the tournament.

 

[Gringo]

Temple just happens to be having an awful year, but I doubt they stay there too long. They are a program with a pretty distinguished history and have been good under Dunphy. So I'm noty overly concerned about them. I admit to being surprised by SMU. they are better than I thought.

SMU could be preseason top 10 next year if they get Myles Turner.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...les-turner-aiming-to-visit-smu-next-wednesday

 

[tzznandrew]

SMU could be preseason top 10 next year if they get Myles Turner.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...les-turner-aiming-to-visit-smu-next-wednesday

Yeah. There's a reason I left them off of that initial list of teams that could take a step back. I expect them to be really good next year if Mudiay makes it there. And, frankly, as long as Larry Brown is there (probably not too much longer, given his track record). It's a matter of if whoever comes after can sustain it.

 

[jleves]

Well that's partly right if you assume seeding is very accurate. And maybe it is for the top teams. But in the AAC you won't get as many chances to play or beat top 10 teams. And you can't depend on out of conference games to do it for you. Those are too unpredictable year to year. And the difference between a 3 and a 4 or a 4 and a 6 is huge in terms of how difficult the road is and how likely you are to progress. If you're higher than that, you need to be thrilled with a Sweet 16. And with RPI as the dominant, that is to say virtually only, factor taken into consideration in seeding, and considering its problems, this is a serious problem.

It's not nearly as big a problem as you make it out to be. It's not actually hard to avoid sub 200 teams and add in many 100 teams. You just have to go to look to better conferences. Doing things like home and aways with P5 teams like we always do will keep you in a good place. Sure, some may not work out as well as you think but statistically some are going to work out better. Just do more of that. Drop a couple of the New England teams we usually put on the schedule and add a perennially good A10 team and find another P5 team to trade with. The AAC dreg will pull us down some and you just combat that with making sure you are looking at teams that are always in the top 150 or 100. Even some of the traditionally good teams in the Big East works and would be a good money maker for both schools (think Georgetown, Nova, etc.) It's not really hard to find top 150/100 teams year in and year out. You just end up with fewer cupcakes early and get them mid season. Probably not the best way to be prepared for the end of the season, but at least you can control a good portion of your SOS.

 

[tzznandrew]

It's not nearly as big a problem as you make it out to be. It's not actually hard to avoid sub 200 teams and add in many 100 teams. You just have to go to look to better conferences. Doing things like home and aways with P5 teams like we always do will keep you in a good place. Sure, some may not work out as well as you think but statistically some are going to work out better. Just do more of that. Drop a couple of the New England teams we usually put on the schedule and add a perennially good A10 team and find another P5 team to trade with. The AAC dreg will pull us down some and you just combat that with making sure you are looking at teams that are always in the top 150 or 100. Even some of the traditionally good teams in the Big East works and would be a good money maker for both schools (think Georgetown, Nova, etc.) It's not really hard to find top 150/100 teams year in and year out. You just end up with fewer cupcakes early and get them mid season. Probably not the best way to be prepared for the end of the season, but at least you can control a good portion of your SOS.

You avoid the Maines, for sure.

The danger of this is that you lose some money at the gate, and that you might lose a game or two to middling teams (UNC to UAB and Belmont), but I think it is worth it in the end.