So just why *is* UConn 10-0 in NC games?

[alexrgct]

How does this happen? Getting to 10 NC games is amazing enough; only two coaches have done it. But to win all 10? Heck, even Pat Summitt is 8-5!

UConn faced and beat then-arch-rival Tennessee four times, now-arch-rival Notre Dame twice, semi-rival Stanford once, Probably-happy-to-be-there Louisville twice, and definitely-happy-to-be-there Oklahoma once. The Huskies have won by deficits of 6, 19, 12, 5, 9, 22, 6, 33, 21, and 10- quite a range, but an average spread of 14.3 points.

This is no coincidence. This is a trend. The sample size is large enough by now to draw conclusions.

So, how on earth does Geno do it?

I'd be interested in reading everyone's thoughts on this. Is it that Geno only makes the big game if UConn is simply the better team? And if that's true, why is UConn "only" 10-6 in national semifinals? Does Geno know how to foster a championship culture of that gained momentum as UConn kept winning? Does Geno know who to keep his players in the right mind state in a big game, to be poised and unintimidated by either the opponent or the moment?

What is it? It's one thing for the Husky men to be 4-0 in NC games (awesome in itself), but how on earth can Geno's players face 10 opponents good enough to win five tournament games and win all 10 times?

Question marks?

 

[chrissaran]

To wonder why UConn is only 10-6 in national semifinals is to discredit all the other capable coaches. Yes, Geno, CD and the rest of his staff are the best in the history of women's basketball. However, there are great coaches in women's college basketball, and they deserve a lot of credit. If not for them, UConn would be 16-0. Geno, for one game, knows how to motivate his players to be their best at the most crucial time. They are winners coming out og high school and commit to UConn because they want to keep on winning. They just happen to get a few of the most talented players, but also the most highly motivated players. How many of UConn's players could commit to other programs and put up huge numbers? Many. It just shows they are more interested in team than in I.

 

[j66kicker]

To wonder why UConn is only 10-6 in national semifinals is to discredit all the other capable coaches. Yes, Geno, CD and the rest of his staff are the best in the history of women's basketball. However, there are great coaches in women's college basketball, and they deserve a lot of credit. If not for them, UConn would be 16-0. Geno, for one game, knows how to motivate his players to be their best at the most crucial time. They are winners coming out og high school and commit to UConn because they want to keep on winning. They just happen to get a few of the most talented players, but also the most highly motivated players. How many of UConn's players could commit to other programs and put up huge numbers? Many. It just shows they are more interested in team than in I.

If not for UCONN, Pat would have been 12-1 in the NC game.

 

[MilfordHusky]

If not for UCONN, Pat would have been 12-1 in the NC game.

She wouldn't necessarily have won all 4, but I bet she would have gotten at least 2 against any other foe.

 

[alexrgct]

To wonder why UConn is only 10-6 in national semifinals is to discredit all the other capable coaches. Yes, Geno, CD and the rest of his staff are the best in the history of women's basketball. However, there are great coaches in women's college basketball, and they deserve a lot of credit. If not for them, UConn would be 16-0. Geno, for one game, knows how to motivate his players to be their best at the most crucial time. They are winners coming out og high school and commit to UConn because they want to keep on winning. They just happen to get a few of the most talented players, but also the most highly motivated players. How many of UConn's players could commit to other programs and put up huge numbers? Many. It just shows they are more interested in team than in I.

You misunderstood that segment of the post. The point is to ask the question of how UConn could be 10-0 simply by virtue of being the better team when the Huskies have lost games it might have won just one round before the championship.

In other words, to accuse people blindly of something they didn't do is to discredit posters for no good reason.

 

[UcMiami]

Geno has always said he has taken teams to the final four that have not been ready to win an NC, but he has never taken a team into the NC game that wasn't ready to win it. I think that is an interesting distinction. So ... I think it really comes down to him doing his losing in the Semis. That his teams perform up to his expectations for them. He is 10-6 in FFs as in he has been to 16 FF and won 10.
Probably his biggest regret and suspicion of failure is the 2001 FF - I think he felt that team was ready and he let them down in the locker room at the half.

 

[Hongster]

1/ Players.
2/ Geno and coaching staffs.
3/ A little bit of luck.

 

[johnnyc]

This might be part of the reason.....

(From the Geno Project)

"K is leaving. Kiah is leaving. You guys that are coming back have a lot of work, more work than you can imagine."

This was said by Geno to the team after they won the NC.

 

[Glenn]

A good, but unanswerable question. Thinking about it from the standpoint of probability. Let us say that UConn should beat these other teams 9 times out of every 10 games. Then the odds of winning all ten are 35%. If our teams have a probability of 95% (equal to our record against top 25 teams over the last 20 years), then the probability jumps up to 60%. My guess is that we have been lucky. But I also think that our teams are probably a bit more used to the pressure, having been there before and in other high-pressure games. And that Geno and CD do a good job of getting our players mentally prepared.

 

[UcMiami]

This might be part of the reason.....

(From the Geno Project)

"K is leaving. Kiah is leaving. You guys that are coming back have a lot of work, more work than you can imagine."

This was said by Geno to the team after they won the NC.

But he finished it up by saying quietly 'But that is a thought for another day.'

'Another day' in my copy of the Geno Coaching Code Book is translated as '8:00 Am sharp tomorrow'

 

[geneticrex]

Anything this crazy usually happens for a variety of reasons, but the most obvious common thread(s) are the two head and associate coaches.

 

[jcoton56]

He has a handfulof teams that overachieve in the elite 8. Some of that may be favorable draw, but really I believe that even when UConn doesn't quite have the horses, there are still only 3-4 teams as good or better than them.

 

[ndmb]

10-0 doesn't really reflect what's going on statistically. In four of those years (02, 09, 10, 14), Geno built a team that was so dominant, so far to the right of the bell curve, that the odds of any one of them losing were really small. These teams obviously helped our record in the final four game as well, but to a much less significant extent. A second tier of teams (2000?, 2015, 03) were a pretty close to that level as well. I'm sure different fans have different takes on which teams fall into which categories, but the point is that UConn has had a LOT of teams where 6-0 in the NCAA tournament was the most likely outcome. That leaves us with 95 (who really had to grit it out over Tennessee, but maybe could be considered to be in the latter category as well), 04, and 13, and for these, I would claim it's mostly coincidence, but a much smaller one than 10-0. 2013 is probably the best example, it's certainly easy to imagine that if that tournament had been held again, that it could have ended with UConn losing in the championship game to Baylor.

At that point, the question could just as easily be framed as: why didn't the UConn teams that didn't win the championship get to the championship game? First, as a one seed, the championship game is the first game of the tournament where your opponent is not that much more likely to be better than the game before. Again, 2013 is a good example; UConn and Notre Dame were functionally playing for the championship, because either would have had really good odds over Louisville. Once we acknowledge that, UConn's five (?) losing final four teams all happened to bow out in the final four game, which is certainly small enough to be a coincidence as well.

 

[alexrgct]

ndmb: very good post, but just for clarification, there have been six national semifinals losses: 1991, 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2012.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I believe in the majority of the years that UConn lost in the Semi-finals, they simply were a team that needed a lot of luck if they were going to win a National Championship. Teams were flawed or had suffered injuries during the year so they weren't the same team that started out at the beginning of the year. It finally caught up to them in the Semi-Finals.

2010/11 Lost to ND Maya's Sr Year. Besides Maya where were the points going to come from. Inconsistent Tiffany Hayes and Bria Hartley and Stef Bolson were freshmen and not the players they ended up being. Notre Dame had more offensive weapons. http://espn.go.com/ncw/boxscore?gameId=310930041

2011/12 Lost to ND in OT 83-75 Teams were more evenly matched as Hartley and Dolson were Sophomores and Kaleena Lewis was a Freshmen If I recall correctly ND had lead for most of the game, UConn took the lead late and couldn't hold it. ND has UConn killer Skylar and IMHO is why ND won. http://espn.go.com/ncw/boxscore?gameId=320920087 ND lost to Baylor who went 40-0 that year. If UConn had won the game, then most likely Geno is not 10-0 in Championship Games.

2007/08 UConn lost to Stanford 82-73 Mel Thomas and Kalana Greene were injured and did not play. Kalana was probably the bigger loss as her defense might have been able to shut down some of Stanford's scoring. However with that said Stanford simply outplayed UConn. http://espn.go.com/ncw/boxscore?gameId=284000031 Stanford lost to the Lady Vols lead by Candace Parker and Shannon Bobbitt. Who knows who wins a UConn vs Lady Vol match up that year.

 

[Henry]

In 1995 we were probably questionably the best team although our inexperience on the big stage could have been a detriment. We were the best team in 2000,2002,2004,2009,2010,2014 and this year. We stole the championship in 2013 in my opinion and was definitely a surprise winner in 2003 when we had D and a secondary cast of players. Don't forget however, that Baylor was the best team Brittney Griner's last year and they were beaten. That's why I felt we stole a championship that year.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

UConn is the absolute crucible of pressure in WCBB. So if you sign up you better be pretty unshakeable - and you did not get the offer unless the staff though that was who you were - and then you are on campus and walk into the practice center for your first meeting .... and Geno walks in (late, probably) and already he does not look pleased. then he starts: "Let's get some things out of the way real quick...." Driven? you better be. Every on of them leave like KML saying what she said the night of the championship when asked about her ND slaying run in the second half: 'It's the least I can do for what he has given me, on and off the court.' UConn is 10-0 'cuz the word is definitively out ... Want to be great ... there is one, only one, high probability place to go.

 

[Plumber Luigi]

You make the practices hard so the games seems easy. You coach your players so their basketball IQ improves and the become consistent. You teach them that nobody is indispensable so don't fret if X is having a bad night, it just means it's time for someone to step up so why not you?

 

[Wonkster]

Go back and start all over again.

UConn is 14-0 in National Championship games. It's in the water.

 

[UcMiami]

The thing with 'probability' is that it is more telling if you play a series of 7 or 10 games over a short period against the same team - this is what the Massey head to head is based on.
The reality is in many of those games played at least 360 days apart with different teams going into the game Uconn had a 70+% chance of winning. So in each single occurrence that years team was the most probable winner. In others of those games Uconn was still the favorite but maybe closer to 55/45 - again Uconn was the most probable winner, and they won. Once or possibly twice Uconn went into the game on the wrong side of probability but narrowly - 45/55 or something. Those were the ONLY 'surprise' wins.

It gets down to the probability on flipping a coin - it is 50% head/tails and if you flip a coin 11 times you expect to be pretty close to heads 5/6 times and tails 6/5 times. But ... if you flip the coin 5 times in a row and it comes up tails, the probability for the next flip is still 50/50 even though 'probability' for eleven flips suggested at the beginning of the sequence that 5 or 6 of the next flips would be heads. In fact, the probability after the first five have come up tails is recalculate and the next six should be 3 heads and 3 tails.

And is 10-0 any more unlikely than 35-0 for a season, or 39-0, or 40-0 or 70+ and 90-0 over multiple season or even just 84-1 as the team currently stands?

And it has been done before - Wooden was 10-0 in NC games as well. He like Geno had the best team in almost every one of those games and like Geno he won them all.

Finally - Again, I look at Geno's record in FF as more indicative (it is a larger sample size) - and that is 20-6 - twice the semi-final loss was to the NC team - in 2001 ND and in 1996 TN - in those two games I think it could actually be said that was the NC game that just happened a round early. The other four ... I don't think Uconn beats Baylor in 2012 if they had gotten past ND, TN in 2008, or TN in 1991. I think they would have beaten A&M in 2011 but they couldn't beat ND in the semis.

 

[alexrgct]

Go back and start all over again. UConn is 14-0 in National Championship games. It's in the water.

Hey, if it's really the water, we can end this thread. Otherwise, this *is* WBB board, after all. The men being 4-0 was duly noted in the OP.

 

[geneticrex]

ndmb: very good post, but just for clarification, there have been six national semifinals losses: 1991, 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2012.

Very true.

Unfortunately for the Huskies, in some of these years, there have been season ending injuries to key starters, while in others, there were significant transfers that left UConn in compromised positions.

Case in point.......

How many people think UConn loses to ND, or anyone else in Maya's senior year if EDD, Walker and McCormack don't transfer and does anyone think ND's 2 year run of mostly last second and/or ovetime wins unfolds in the same fashion if those players remained in school??? As solid as ND was over that time, if EDD stays at UConn, the legacy of Skylar Diggins doesn't include a collection of heart stopping wins against the Huskies.

 

[Woof 101]

You misunderstood that segment of the post. The point is to ask the question of how UConn could be 10-0 simply by virtue of being the better team when the Huskies have lost games it might have won just one round before the championship.

In other words, to accuse people blindly of something they didn't do is to discredit posters for no good reason.

Ah

You misunderstood that segment of the post. The point is to ask the question of how UConn could be 10-0 simply by virtue of being the better team when the Huskies have lost games it might have won just one round before the championship.

In other words, to accuse people blindly of something they didn't do is to discredit posters for no good reason.

You say Chrissaran misunderstood a segment of the post, well I'll be wet in the rain. He/she made sense. Your post starts with three questions then states, the sample size is large enough by now to draw conclusions. Then continues to ask no less than seven more questions. No slander here but this goes into my things you can't make up drawer.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Simply magic, no other reason.

UConn has entered the Tournament undefeated and not won it, and in another year it has entered into the the Tourney as the overwhelming favorite and not won it, but still it is 10-0 in the NC games, beating less than 1 in 1000 odds. And if you throw in the men with their odd status as never once being the favorite and only once even being among the top 5 teams pre-Tourney, you have odds of less than 1 in 16,000.

There is no other explanation than simply, it's magic.

 

[UcMiami]

On a tangent - I have seen the stat before but cannot find it anywhere now. But it basically goes:
In the history of NCAA division 1 women's basketball and the AP (or coaches poll) there have been 56 (or 65 or ___) instances of #1 ranked team vs #2 ranked team and Uconn has been involved in half of them. As the #1 seed they are 17-2 and as the #2 seed they are 8-3 or something ridiculous like that.
Uconn was involved in two of those games this year - SC as #2 seed and ND as #1 seed - which actually points to the inconsistency of poll because 75% of the country knew Uconn was a better team than SC before the game but ... whatever.

My point being - is 10 - 0 any more surprising than somewhere around a 80% win rate when playing the #1 or #2 team when Uconn was #1 or #2.

If anybody can find the source for that stat I would love to see it again.