Rebecca on 3-Peat Chances

[j66kicker]

http://espn.go.com/espnw/video/11732743/uconn-women-basketball-season-preview

Geno: "We're not gonna play a tough season and get this far and then lose."

 

[MarlboroughMike]

Commenting on a couple of points that Rebecca made:

She said that UCONN did not play ND last year - I'm sure she was thinking about the regular season - but I seem to remember a UCONN - ND game.

She also said that TBS was a good three point shooter, but I have some concern about her three pointer: she shot 34.3% in 2013/2014 (33.1% in her freshman year) - but that is not my issue. It is in the last ten games of 2014, she shot 25.7% (9/35) against good competition (at least compared to AAC games). Did the emphasis on moving continuously impact her legs toward the end of the season? just a dry spell? will she spend enough practice time on that shot? These questions should begin to answer themselves in a few months. Hopefully my concern disappears as the season progresses.

 

[NVUConnFan]

Regarding UConn 3pt shooting: KLM & MoJet. Stewie doesn't have to shoot many. If they double or triple her down low, then OK take a 3.

 

[Samanthabrown3]

South Carolina has all the goods on paper. I wonder how their season will turn out. By February 2 we'll know whether the UConn-SC game will be the contest that Rebecca is predicting.

 

[rford53]

South Carolina has all the goods on paper. I wonder how their season will turn out. By February 2 we'll know whether the UConn-SC game will be the contest that Rebecca is predicting.

Espn got the wrong date for this game on that season preview. The actual date of the game is February 9, not February 2. So we won't know by 2/2/15

 

[UcMiami]

Stewart averaged 3.5 three pointers a game last year so 35 shots in that 10 game stretch - 25% = 9 makes 33% = 12 makes - a pretty small difference - one more shot made every three games. I don't think it is that material - of her 19.4 points per game basically 16 of those points came on two pointers or foul shots. Not sure anybody can draw conclusions from the sample size. When she goes on a hot streak it can be frightening, but if she is cold from outside she has a whole arsenal of other options in her game.
We think of her as a three point threat and in a few games she was, but for the year most of her offensive output was inside the arc. It is a weapon that opponents need to respect and fear and it makes her a more difficult player to scheme against.

 

[JRRRJ]

Commenting on a couple of points that Rebecca made:

She said that UCONN did not play ND last year - I'm sure she was thinking about the regular season - but I seem to remember a UCONN - ND game.

She also said that TBS was a good three point shooter, but I have some concern about her three pointer: she shot 34.3% in 2013/2014 (33.1% in her freshman year) - but that is not my issue. It is in the last ten games of 2014, she shot 25.7% (9/35) against good competition (at least compared to AAC games). Did the emphasis on moving continuously impact her legs toward the end of the season? just a dry spell? will she spend enough practice time on that shot? These questions should begin to answer themselves in a few months. Hopefully my concern disappears as the season progresses.

I was very surprised to hear Rebecca say that Moriah needs to become more consistent with her 3-point shot, because teams were daring her to take it at the end of the season.

Teams were not "daring" her to take it -- they were choosing their poison. And poison it was:

1. Moriah shot 6/12 3pt in the NCAA tourney.
   
2. She shot 2/4 in the AAC tourney.
   
3. For the last 10 games of the regular season, she was 13/21 (61.9%)!
   
4. She shot 33/79 for the year. That 41.8% success rate was 2nd best on the team, behind only Tierney who shot 8/19 for 42.1%.

Just what does she need to do better? She was too busy handing out 195 assists to take many more shots.

I know they gotta fill up airtime with something, but to me that comment was lame.

 

[sarals24]

That was true at the beginning of the season, most notably the Stanford game, but it was definitely not true by the end.

 

[huskeynut]

To follow up, playing UCONN is picking your poison as to who to try to shut down. Last year all 5 starters averaged double figures.

This year will be different. Stewie, KML and MoJet will average double figures. The question becomes will Kiah average double figures. She's capable. Can she be a decent passer from the high post? Not sure. We know she will play great defense, block shots and control the boards.

Who the fifth starter will be is to be determined. If its Kia Nurse, I think she is more than capable of averaging double figures. Right now I believe Kia has the edge to start at the 2 spot.

And then there is Morgan. For most teams early on, Morgan will be somewhat of an unknown quantity. Coming off a serious knee injury there will be question marks until she proves she is a legit threat. The watch out!!!!!

But it won't be long to the start of the season. And I'm anticipating a three-peat!!!!!!!!

 

[Kibitzer]

I was very surprised to hear Rebecca say that Moriah needs to become more consistent with her 3-point shot, because teams were daring her to take it at the end of the season.

Teams were not "daring" her to take it -- they were choosing their poison. And poison it was:

1. Moriah shot 6/12 3pt in the NCAA tourney.
   
2. She shot 2/4 in the AAC tourney.
   
3. For the last 10 games of the regular season, she was 13/21 (61.9%)!
   
4. She shot 33/79 for the year. That 41.8% success rate was 2nd best on the team, behind only Tierney who shot 8/19 for 42.1%.

Just what does she need to do better? She was too busy handing out 195 assists to take many more shots.

I know they gotta fill up airtime with something, but to me that comment was lame.

Here we have a classic case of Perception vs. Reality.

Opposing coaches (and, yes, Rebecca as well) apparently have a Perception (based on a very small early-season sample) that Moriah can drive like lightning to the hoop but she can't nail treys -- so it is logical sag when defending her. Reality is that she is not only the very best wcbb PG when dishing assists (not to mention her incredible A/TO ratio), but if you let her shoot from the perimeter she will make you regret it.

Next case: the Perception that Kaleena is so out of shape that she is a handicap on defense. Yeah, sure -- just like Diana was.

 

[UcMiami]

You know - after posting above about Stewart's 3 point shooting and reading some other posts I started wondering about how important 3 point shooting really is over the course of a season both individually and as a team:
Uconn 2013-14 made 295 three pointers = 885 points out of 3283 total points = 27% of their points - not insignificant and they shot .366 vs .503 - effectively .549 per shot. Definitely a positive.

Players per game (minimum 30 makes): 3 point shots taken/made/points/three pointer points/percentage of points scored
Stewart: 3.5/1.2/19.4/3.6/19%
Hartley: 5.6/2.1/16.2/6.2/38%
KML*: 5.7/2.4/13.4/7/52%
Moriah:2.0/0.8/10.0/2.5/25%
Chong**:2.4/0.8/4.5/2.3/51%

* KML 28 games, **Chong 39 games

Hartley and KML are the only players who were making two 3 pointers a game - everyone else made basically one a game and it represented a fairly small amount of their scoring except for Chong who really wasn't playing or scoring much.

Interesting because we all remember games where a player went off from three, but over the course of 40 games no one was doing that much damage from there.

FYI - jump shot percentage shooting of 45% is great (yes some 'jump shooters' make a higher percentage for a year but that percentage is helped by the lay-ups included in their stats) The equivalent efficiency from three point land to 45% inside the arc is 30%. For Uconn the only players who were below 30% and shot more than 10 three pointers were Dolson and Banks and they were at .296 and .295 respectively = 43+%. KML, Jefferson, Tuck and Lawlor were all over .410 = 62+% effective rate. No wonder Geno wants around 30% of shots to be three pointers each game.