Providence Scouting Report

[Hey Adrien!]

Providence (14-6)
#48 in KenPom​

140th in Offensive efficiency

• 19th w/ a 56.5 2P%
• 54th w/ a 42.6 3PA/FGA; but just 32.5 3P% (231st)
  • I expect that number to continue to improve w/ shooters Barron and Gaines playing the 4 over Hopkins
• 112th w/ a 52.8 A/FGM ratio
• Median or lower in all other metrics

9th in Defensive efficiency

• 2nd in A/FGM prevention (36.8%)
• 11th in opp 2P% (43.4%)
• 30th in 3PA/FGA prevention (31.7%); 96th w/ an 32.1 opp 3P%
• 41st in FTA/FGA prevention
• 41st in block rate
• 90th in defensive rebounding rate

A Look at the Schedule

• 4-4 in Big East play without Hopkins
• Won last three games
  • 100-62 at DePaul
  • 67-63 at Seton Hall
  • 84-76 vs Georgetown

KEY INJURIES

• Bryce Hopkins (knee; 15.5p, 8.6r)
• Justyn Fernanez (knee; sophomore transfer from George Mason)

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:

Jayden Pierre 6’2 180 sophomore

Devin Carter 6’3 195 junior

Corey Floyd 6’4 210 sophomore

Ticket Gaines 6’7 190 fifth-year transfer from George Mason

Josh Oduro 6’9 240 fifth-year transfer from George Mason

FREQUENTLY USED BENCH PIECES -

Rich Barron 6’5 220 freshman

Garwey Dual 6’5 190 freshman

Rafael Castro 6’11 220 sophomore

Fresh off their Super Bowl victory over Ed Cooley and the doormat Georgetown Hoyas, the national media got a good look at what Providence looks like under Kim English sans Bryce Hopkins: a hard-working, tough defensive team that will have trouble generating quality offensive chances even though Devin Carter is one of the most complete guards in the Big East.

In short, when everything is running exactly the way Kim English wants, the offense opens the floor with spacing and the defense plays hard, on-ball defense that puts way more emphasis on making it really hard for the opponent to take quality shots than causing turnovers or focusing on prevent or help defenses.

Straight up, Devin Carter is a two-way star. He defends the opponent’s best guard and he can truly do anything and everything on offense: score from all-three levels, dish, draw fouls. He’s incredibly savvy. On defense, he is a positionally strong rebounder and rim-protector and is uncanny in the way he can defend without getting charged for a lot of fouls (2.4 fouls/40 minutes).

A-10 First Teamer Josh Oduro has transitioned smoothly to Big East play thanks to his cerebral offensive game. He’s one of the best passing bigs in the Big East and his shooting efficiency is decent from the line and out to the elbow. Oduro is a gritty-defender who is easily Providence’s best rim-protector, but he is also foul prone (4.5 fouls/40 minutes)

I underestimated Jayden Pierre this offseason, but he’s gotten pretty good in his sophomore season and I see him becoming a very good four-year collegiate point guard. Similar to Villanova’s Mark Armstrong, Pierre is an attacking point-guard that thrives in open space and does a nice job hiding his intentions when penetrating. He’s also an excellent spacer and while he is not one of Providence’s better defenders, he’s at least average.

Ticket Gaines isn’t a strong rebounder, but he is a prototype three-and-D wing. On offense, he’s either shooting threes or dunking, so don’t expect much of a mid-game from him. He’ll be on Karaban all game and is an excellent defender.

The weak spot of Providence’s lineup is their third guard. Right now, Corey Floyd is getting the start and is counted on to be Providence’s 3-and-D guard, but his shot has been awful and his defensive metrics are not good. He’s a physical, hard-working big guard, but he hasn’t figured it out yet.

Four-star freshman Garwey Dual has immense defensive potential thanks to his length, athleticism and motor. Like Carter, Dual can guard all three backcourt positions, but on offense, Dual is struggling to score from all three levels.

Off the bench, Rafael Castro has some similarities to Samson Johnson: he’s an athletic backup big whose size is more of a power forward than a center. He is Providence’s best offensive rebounder and has a super limited post-game. His athleticism and length fuels his defensive versatility.

Recruited by Kim English back when he was at George Mason, freshman Rich Barron has been a solid find, even though he is unranked in most recruiting databases. At 6’5 220, Barron has an intriguing frame, but right now is strictly an efficient spacer on offense and is clearly Providence’s worst defender. Most of his minutes are at the 3, but about a ⅓ of his time is as a small ball 4.

Not going to lie, the luster of playing Providence has lessened a ton with Hopkins out, but time has proven to me to never underestimate the Friars. Similar to Seton Hall, no matter the roster, English ensures that his teams always give 100% and they are truly an excellent defensive squad with an offensive star in Carter.

That being said, Providence lacks quality depth outside of their best four players and since UConn has the intensity to match Providence, the talent level is not even close.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Have only seen them a couple times all year. Carter's shooting is really a nice evolution in his game.

Can't look past this team or anybody, but this should be a win for the Huskies.

 

[drayenob]

This might sound funny but with St John's coming up on Saturday, this has the feel of a trap game.

 

[kansashusky]

Stop Devin Carter.

 

[HooperScooper]

Stop Devin Carter.

Stephon Castle meet Devin Carter. Devin Carter meet Stephon Castle.

 

[champs99and04]

Solid summary. Saturday's win might have been the Super Bowl for the fan base, but I think the players are more relieved than anything that it's over.

Since I've seen this team I fair bit, I'll add some general observations and player commentary:

- I don't think this team was ever as good as some people - namely, PC fans - thought prior to the Hopkins injury. Save for his early-season Big East play last season, he's been a good not great player who did a lot of things well but really struggled to do what the team really needed - score at an efficient clip against good teams and shoot it at a decent level. Because of that, I don't think the offense is that much worse without him, and may have had the positive effect of forcing Devin Carter to do more. Overall, I think this team had about a 75% chance to make the tournament with Hopkins and maybe a 50% chance now.

- Speaking of Carter, I feel like I'm always having to stop myself from going overboard on him. He's probably the best overall defensive player in the Big East. I haven't seen much of UConn, but I'm pretty sure he's the best player in the conference outside of them. Terrific athlete who finishes at a high level and has gotten better and better at manipulating defenses into vacating the lanes he wants to attack. Developing post game that he can initiate from anywhere on the floor. I'm tempted to call him a sure fire rotation NBA player at the very least with one exception: his shooting form is really weird, and even though the ball's gone in this season, there's a part of you that keeps waiting for it to regress. Vision and playmaking off the bounce isn't anything special, but more than good enough to sustain a player with his burst.

- Despite what the stats say, Ticket Gaines might be the second best player on the team, and I really believe that he would play big minutes for almost any team in the country. Terrific defender who has become a very dependable three point shooter. Almost wish he had spent his final season with a more realistic final four contender, because he deserves it.

- Oduro is a very useful offensive player who scores pretty efficiently with his back to the basket and can also really pass the basketball. Not a great athlete or shooter, however, and UConn's the type of team that could in theory expose some of those limitations. There are times where you watch him and can see why he was at George Mason, but there are other times where he can kind of kick your ass. In another world he's the man on some 14 or 15 seed that scares the hell out of you in March, but he probably can't last playing regular minutes at the five on a team with legitimate ambitions of playing deep into the postseason. Not as bad defensively as I feared when he came over, but definitely not a plus guy.

- Pierre is a similar mold of player in that he's a little limited athletically but surprisingly skilled. Very clever player who's patient in the lane and good at setting up his teammates. He can also shoot a little, which really makes him PC's most indispensable offensive player outside of Carter. Defensively he's improved a bit, but still very much untested with a low ceiling. Providence really felt his absence earlier in the year when he missed a couple games with a hamstring.

- Floyd has shown flashes but struggled overall. Doesn't really excel at any one particular thing and has even generated angst amongst the fan base over whether he should be playing so many minutes.

- Dual is talented but very raw, and frankly not the type of guy who should be playing legitimate minutes on any team that's serious about winning right now. Perhaps he can elevate his game against better competition, but save for some secondary playmaking, he's a virtual zero on offense whose fundamentals have left a lot to be desired on the other end. Nothing too unusual for a freshman, but definitely not part of the 1% like some were hoping.

- Castro is a long, active big who's given some solid minutes off the bench. Capable offensive rebounder and maybe their best pure rim protector, but still very raw and nothing you don't see on every team. Barron the freshman has started to play more minutes recently with mixed results. He's not afraid to shoot it but definitely someone who will be attacked at the other end. OK athlete with good size who could probably stand to slim down a little.

It's been tough for me to get a read on Kim English given some of the limitations, particularly with Hopkins down. It's a team that has Cooley players but doesn't really play like a Cooley team. You have to appreciate the job he's done getting his guys to defend, but the offense is usually fairly stagnant. Late game coaching hasn't impressed me, but then again there are Hall of Famers I could say that about.

 

[Deepster]

My thoughts on Oduro.

1) If he can't match up with Clingan and gets in foul trouble, PC is in for a long night.
2) If Clingan gets in foul trouble, I would almost lean to the small lineup with Karaban in the middle to space out the floor more than letting him bang Samson around down low.
3) Whether its Clingan, Samson or the small lineup, I don't see Oduro having a discernible impact on the outcome. There's too much for him to handle all game.

 

[Deepster]

I also don't think they have near the offensive scheme or teamwork in place that's needed to win this game. They were throwing the ball into the stands against Georgetown and are going to have fits with Newton, Castle and Diarra pressuring their ball handlers all game.

 

[Icehawk]

Carter had a beautiful alley-oop backwards jam in the GT game, the man has game. They will play hard but unless our guys are napping this should be a straightforward W.

 

[REB1094]

Devin Carter can single handedly make this a game. Need Castle guarding him as much as possible

I really like Oduro, but unless there’s foul trouble I think he will not have a lot of fun banging in the paint with Clingan

I don’t think there will be any extra feelings about playing CFJ. Karaban practiced for a semester with him, otherwise none of the starters were there with him

 

[Hey Adrien!]

This might sound funny but with St John's coming up on Saturday, this has the feel of a trap game.

Meh. St. John's isn't exactly the type of team that generates trap games. They're a possible tournament team, but it's not like we're playing Marquette or Creighton on Saturday.

 

[Rich]

Obliterate them.

 

[Ripper32]

Gaines is dangerous if left unattended.

 

[auror]

Gaines is dangerous if left unattended.

He's prolific, but streaky.

 

[nomar]

Stop Devin Carter.

 

[RichCTBB]

Between Castle and Diarra, I think we can really limit Carter and make someone else beat us. I’m always more worried about whoever Cam is guarding, but with Clingan waiting in the lane, that’s not as much of a concern anymore.

 

[TheChamps990411]

Providence (14-6)
#48 in KenPom​

140th in Offensive efficiency

• 19th w/ a 56.5 2P%
• 54th w/ a 42.6 3PA/FGA; but just 32.5 3P% (231st)
  • I expect that number to continue to improve w/ shooters Barron and Gaines playing the 4 over Hopkins
• 112th w/ a 52.8 A/FGM ratio
• Median or lower in all other metrics

9th in Defensive efficiency

• 2nd in A/FGM prevention (36.8%)
• 11th in opp 2P% (43.4%)
• 30th in 3PA/FGA prevention (31.7%); 96th w/ an 32.1 opp 3P%
• 41st in FTA/FGA prevention
• 41st in block rate
• 90th in defensive rebounding rate

A Look at the Schedule

• 4-4 in Big East play without Hopkins
• Won last three games
  • 100-62 at DePaul
  • 67-63 at Seton Hall
  • 84-76 vs Georgetown

KEY INJURIES

• Bryce Hopkins (knee; 15.5p, 8.6r)
• Justyn Fernanez (knee; sophomore transfer from George Mason)

View attachment 95794

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:

Jayden Pierre 6’2 180 sophomore

Devin Carter 6’3 195 junior

Corey Floyd 6’4 210 sophomore

Ticket Gaines 6’7 190 fifth-year transfer from George Mason

Josh Oduro 6’9 240 fifth-year transfer from George Mason

FREQUENTLY USED BENCH PIECES -

Rich Barron 6’5 220 freshman

Garwey Dual 6’5 190 freshman

Rafael Castro 6’11 220 sophomore

View attachment 95795

Fresh off their Super Bowl victory over Ed Cooley and the doormat Georgetown Hoyas, the national media got a good look at what Providence looks like under Kim English sans Bryce Hopkins: a hard-working, tough defensive team that will have trouble generating quality offensive chances even though Devin Carter is one of the most complete guards in the Big East.

In short, when everything is running exactly the way Kim English wants, the offense opens the floor with spacing and the defense plays hard, on-ball defense that puts way more emphasis on making it really hard for the opponent to take quality shots than causing turnovers or focusing on prevent or help defenses.

Straight up, Devin Carter is a two-way star. He defends the opponent’s best guard and he can truly do anything and everything on offense: score from all-three levels, dish, draw fouls. He’s incredibly savvy. On defense, he is a positionally strong rebounder and rim-protector and is uncanny in the way he can defend without getting charged for a lot of fouls (2.4 fouls/40 minutes).

A-10 First Teamer Josh Oduro has transitioned smoothly to Big East play thanks to his cerebral offensive game. He’s one of the best passing bigs in the Big East and his shooting efficiency is decent from the line and out to the elbow. Oduro is a gritty-defender who is easily Providence’s best rim-protector, but he is also foul prone (4.5 fouls/40 minutes)

I underestimated Jayden Pierre this offseason, but he’s gotten pretty good in his sophomore season and I see him becoming a very good four-year collegiate point guard. Similar to Villanova’s Mark Armstrong, Pierre is an attacking point-guard that thrives in open space and does a nice job hiding his intentions when penetrating. He’s also an excellent spacer and while he is not one of Providence’s better defenders, he’s at least average.

Ticket Gaines isn’t a strong rebounder, but he is a prototype three-and-D wing. On offense, he’s either shooting threes or dunking, so don’t expect much of a mid-game from him. He’ll be on Karaban all game and is an excellent defender.

The weak spot of Providence’s lineup is their third guard. Right now, Corey Floyd is getting the start and is counted on to be Providence’s 3-and-D guard, but his shot has been awful and his defensive metrics are not good. He’s a physical, hard-working big guard, but he hasn’t figured it out yet.

Four-star freshman Garwey Dual has immense defensive potential thanks to his length, athleticism and motor. Like Carter, Dual can guard all three backcourt positions, but on offense, Dual is struggling to score from all three levels.

Off the bench, Rafael Castro has some similarities to Samson Johnson: he’s an athletic backup big whose size is more of a power forward than a center. He is Providence’s best offensive rebounder and has a super limited post-game. His athleticism and length fuels his defensive versatility.

Recruited by Kim English back when he was at George Mason, freshman Rich Barron has been a solid find, even though he is unranked in most recruiting databases. At 6’5 220, Barron has an intriguing frame, but right now is strictly an efficient spacer on offense and is clearly Providence’s worst defender. Most of his minutes are at the 3, but about a ⅓ of his time is as a small ball 4.

Not going to lie, the luster of playing Providence has lessened a ton with Hopkins out, but time has proven to me to never underestimate the Friars. Similar to Seton Hall, no matter the roster, English ensures that his teams always give 100% and they are truly an excellent defensive squad with an offensive star in Carter.

That being said, Providence lacks quality depth outside of their best four players and since UConn has the intensity to match Providence, the talent level is not even close.

I like that theyre a tough defensive squad. Hopefully they really are good defensively and not get run through like X did. Blow outs are fun but we nid this team to be challenged as much as possible. Hope providence is up for it and keeps it under 30.

 

[87Xfer]

Carter had a beautiful alley-oop backwards jam in the GT game, the man has game. They will play hard but unless our guys are napping this should be a straightforward W.

And the guy's listed at 6'-3". I never thought of him as a guy with insane hops, but apparently I wasn't paying attention.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

- Providence is just giving up SO MUCH size in this matchup. I’m curious how English tries to make it somewhat competitive on the glass, because on paper it’s going to be a huge issue. Does he give up some transition opportunities and just crash the glass with everyone? Certainly feels like a slow, methodical half-court game plays into UConn’s game plan.

- Oduro is a nice player but I would be shocked if he is not in early foul trouble. I’d bet Hurley tries to establish Clingan early to try to force the issue. English is going to have to give Oduro help, which will open up outside shots.

- Carter has turned into one heck of a player. He’s going to have to have a superhuman effort and will no doubt see Castle and Diarra draped all over him the entire night (with Clingan sealing off the paint). Just gotta make him slightly less efficient because he’s too good to stop.

Unfortunate that Hopkins is out for the year. He, Oduro, and Carter made for one of the better three-man cores in college ball. Outside of a total dud shooting-wise for UConn, feels like this is just too much of a mismatch.

 

[Umami Zen]

Can't make lazy passes and/or telegraph them around Carter on the perimeter. He's too good defensively

 

[ctchamps]

Great opportunity to observe how our offense plays against a top ten defensive team. Looking forward to this game.

Game plan will be to make someone other than Carter beat us. Kid is a player. Love watching him.

This game is a two for. Taking down a regional rival and revenge on George plucking Mason.

@Hey Adrien! Thanks for all these posts. Really love them. I believe that in your next reincarnation you will come back as a HOF college basketball coach. Second possibility might be as a basketball.

 

[elmcityboy]

they are a really small team. i am surprised that ticket gaines is listed at 6'7"/190 -- he looks like a shooting guard out there.

wonder if this is the type of game where we can dominate the glass and neutralize a lot of their defensive pressure. would love to have oduro in foul trouble, as well.

 

[Palatine]

Great post as always.

It will be interesting to see how Providence handles this game emotionally. They just played and WON their Super Bowl. The natural result would be a letdown.

For us, I think Cam Spenser is due for a good game. He should be comfortable in Gampel. It may not happen this game but I also expect a minor explosion from an emerging Castle sometime soon.

 

[ctchamps]

Great post as always.

It will be interesting to see how Providence handles this game emotionally. They just played and WON their Super Bowl. The natural result would be a letdown.

For us, I think Cam Spenser is due for a good game. He should be comfortable in Gampel. It may not happen this game but I also expect a minor explosion from an emerging Castle sometime soon.

We can have our own letdown after the Xavier performance. Very hard to repeat that level of perfection. Fortunately we have an astute coaching staff that is aware of this and are as capable as any coaching staff in the country to reduce this risk.

 

[Deepster]

We can have our own letdown after the Xavier performance. Very hard to repeat that level of perfection. Fortunately we have an astute coaching staff that is aware of this and are as capable as any coaching staff in the country to reduce this risk.

Just a personal observation reading their board for years. As mentioned, the focus so far this year has been head and shoulders having Cooley come back to the Dunk. That was clearly their most important game, as it should be.

There has not been a lot of talk about us there this year and when there is? It's pretty humble and complimentary of how deep and effective we've been. Oh, they still hate our guts and think we're all d-bags but they're realistic enough to know this one is a real uphill climb for them based off lineups and matchups.