Path Forward for UConn

[pj]

It has been a frustrating last decade-plus for UConn in conference realignment. Our market (Connecticut plus chunks of New York and New England) is large, our athletic success outstanding, and the brand is prominent compared to many P5 programs. If football were settled in a strong conference for a while it would be competitive. Yet this value has gone unrecognized while many less valuable and successful universities have gotten rich.

It seems the B12 chose stability (geographic compactness, two teams per state, local rivalries, mid-tier brands with few options) over entrepreneurial ambition (UConn, national growth with marquee brands). No other way to explain taking Utah and Arizona State, the second teams in their states, over UConn which would bring in more money but have less commonality and less geographic fit with its B12 peers.

If that's their choice, less money but more stability and security, it's hard to see them changing strategy and taking UConn later.

The ACC seems the natural landing place for UConn but the ACC seems frozen in place and unable or unwilling to act due to internal divisions and their particular contract structures.

The B1G and SEC also seem out of reach, as both are able to poach top brands and SEC does not seem interested in moving out of its region.

Nevertheless the whole college sports configuration makes no sense right now and it looks like it is heading toward some kind of disruption. Basketball undervalued and basketball revenue distributed primarily to non-producers, many second-tier brands overpaid and top brands underpaid, football providing content only seasonally, shifts in the media landscape from cable to streaming. There will be a lot of motives for change.

It looks like UConn has to keep investing in football, basketball, and brand building and wait for things to free up. Maybe Florida State's moves to alter the ACC situation could be the lever that opens things up.

If I were the UConn administration I'd reach out to Florida State and ESPN and see if there is some creative idea for re-arranging the ACC to create more value, and also to Cal and Stanford to see if the three biggest "left out" brands can maneuver something to mutual advantage. An alliance of the undervalued has to lead entrepreneurial disruption.

The ACC must be thinking about whether they want a Pacific division, now that ex-PAC schools are available; Cal and Stanford will surely be open to creative solutions, and Notre Dame provides a precedent for creativity. I think if the ACC stays frozen, they are setting themselves up for a Pac-12 like situation later. There should be openness to enhancing their market position on the East Coast, and getting more heft with more schools to improve their bargaining strength in future negotiations.

 

[NH Husky]

 

[billybud]

The problem with ACC expansion is that ESPN would have to pay enough to grow the ACC individual program pot, not diminish it by addition. ACC programs are adamant about the need for additional revenue.

ESPN may not be in that position given their recent finances, there may not be a program in the east that will return $35 million.

 

[JeepCSC]

The Texas schools, Oklahoma State, Kansas. These are the only reasonable expansion partners for the ACC besides Notre Dame.

 

[Punkbo]

Now that the PAC 12 deal is dead, Apple is looking for content. We need cash inflow with a partner who can market our brand. Seems to me like a match made in heaven. Let’s make it happen.

 

[djct1999]

The Texas schools, Oklahoma State, Kansas. These are the only reasonable expansion partners for the ACC besides Notre Dame.

Why would any of those schools join the ACC?

 

[JeepCSC]

Why would any of those schools join the ACC?

Short answer is money. Longer answer:

• the ACC will have the higher payout by the time the Big XII GOR ends
• it’s unknown what the next Big XII contract will look like
• The Big XII has greatly expanded the mouths they need to feed, by duplicating markets and getting maybe a 5th rate program from Florida
• the ACCN can maximize the Texas market in ways a static network contract can’t
• allows the best four Big XII programs to have direct access to the East Coast money/talent, rather than skirting around the edges with West Virginia and Central Florida

 

[NH Husky]

Why would any of those schools join the ACC?

The Texas schools, Oklahoma State, Kansas. These are the only reasonable expansion partners for the ACC besides Notre Dame.

I could see Kansas and SMU. Stanford and Cal - with an arrangement like NDs. UCONN, USF, Tulane, Rice. Maybe basketball onlies from BE. Temple?

 

[JeepCSC]

Put it like this, if the ACC and Big XII have roughly equivalent payouts in 2030 with a lean towards the ACC, imagine what the payouts would be if you took the most valuable Big XII brands and moved them over. The same would be true in reverse as well, the Big XII contract would jump if FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA moved to the Big XII. But the GOR length, and UNC/UVA never ever joining the Big XII means that won’t happen.

 

[djct1999]

Short answer is money. Longer answer:

• the ACC will have the higher payout by the time the Big XII GOR ends
• it’s unknown what the next Big XII contract will look like
• The Big XII has greatly expanded the mouths they need to feed, by duplicating markets and getting maybe a 5th rate program from Florida
• the ACCN can maximize the Texas market in ways a static network contract can’t
• allows the best four Big XII programs to have direct access to the East Coast money/talent, rather than skirting around the edges with West Virginia and Central Florida

I guess if you assume the absolute best for the ACC and absolute worst for the Big 12 but none of this is close to reality. Under almost all circumstances, Clemson, FSU, UNC, UVA, Va Tech, Miami, and NC State are gone.

 

[JeepCSC]

I guess if you assume the absolute best for the ACC and absolute worst for the Big 12 but none of this is close to reality.

All it really assumes is the GOR is unbreakable. The Big XII’s GOR coming due 5 years earlier means instability will hit it first. It’s likely Kansas, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech are now the most attractive properties available for the next decade plus. If the B10 and SEC don’t bite, the ACC obviously should.

But yes, it only works if the GOR stands.

 

[billybud]

Secondary sports in ACC...there are fans of these sports. Hard to assign importance to non monetary sports.

Field Hockey....5 NC's of last seven

Men's Soccer....9 NC's since 2000

Women's Soccer....8 NC's since 2000

Men;s Lacrosse....9 NC's since 2000

Women's Lacrossee....9 NC's since 2000

 

[djct1999]

All it really assumes is the GOR is unbreakable. The Big XII’s GOR coming due 5 years earlier means instability will hit it first. It’s likely Kansas, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech are now the most attractive properties available for the next decade plus. If the B10 and SEC don’t bite, the ACC obviously should.

But yes, it only works if the GOR stands.

One of two things will happen when the Big 12 has to renegotiate. Either there is a healty tv market and they get a deal that destroys the ACC. Or there is a luke warm market and the top teams go to the SEC and Big 10 and the remaining schools fall by the waste side. Under no circumstance will the remaining schools join the ACC in a sweetened deal. How do I know this? Because if the Big 12 is unsuccessful in landing a better deal than the ACC, consolidation will be in full effect. And by consolidation, I mean the P2 and everyone else.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Short answer is money. Longer answer:

• the ACC will have the higher payout by the time the Big XII GOR ends
• it’s unknown what the next Big XII contract will look like
• The Big XII has greatly expanded the mouths they need to feed, by duplicating markets and getting maybe a 5th rate program from Florida
• the ACCN can maximize the Texas market in ways a static network contract can’t
• allows the best four Big XII programs to have direct access to the East Coast money/talent, rather than skirting around the edges with West Virginia and Central Florida

You are correct on these but one thing to add is that they may not be be correct until 5-6 years from now. It won't make sense for any of the B-12 schools to pay their way out of the B-12 GOR (plus paying exit fees) just to sign on to a GOR that lasts five years longer and not see any real financial gain until 2032.

 

[businesslawyer]

The problem with ACC expansion is that ESPN would have to pay enough to grow the ACC individual program pot, not diminish it by addition. ACC programs are adamant about the need for additional revenue.

ESPN may not be in that position given their recent finances, there may not be a program in the east that will return $35 million.

The ACC doesn’t have to pay us $35 large to get us. If they offered us $20M a year through the GOR expiration (plus a pro rata share of revenue increases), we would take it in a heartbeat.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

One of two things will happen when the Big 12 has to renegotiate. Either there is a healty tv market and they get a deal that destroys the ACC. Or there is a luke warm market and the top teams go to the SEC and Big 10 and the remaining schools fall by the waste side. Under no circumstance will the remaining schools join the ACC in a sweetened deal.

I wouldn't plan on anything other than an incentive laden deal for anyone other than the SEC and B1G going forward. They'll have sufficient inventory to satisfy most desirable programming windows so the outlets will be more than willing to overspend on them which will limit what they'll have to spend on everyone else. Those two conferences will be the QB's getting $45 million to $60 million annual NFL contracts while the next level of conferences will be RB's fighting to continue to get offers of $10 million to $12 million a year and those below that will hope for veteran's minimum deals and late round rookie deals.

 

[JeepCSC]

One of two things will happen when the Big 12 has to renegotiate. Either there is a healty tv market and they get a deal that destroys the ACC. Or there is a luke warm market and the top teams go to the SEC and Big 10 and the remaining schools fall by the waste side. Under no circumstance will the remaining schools join the ACC in a sweetened deal. How do I know this? Because if the Big 12 is unsuccessful in landing a better deal than the ACC, consolidation will be in full effect. And by consolidation, I mean the P2 and everyone else.

The SEC has the top programs in Oklahoma and Texas, so they likely won’t go back to that well. Which leaves the B10 who up to this point hasn’t shown a willingness to go any further than Lincoln into BXII territory. They have been focused on the two coasts exclusively. Whether that changes, I don’t know. I can’t imagine Kansas and Oklahoma State is at the top of their new wish list.

 

[JeepCSC]

You are correct on these but one thing to add is that they may not be be correct until 5-6 years from now. It won't make sense for any of the B-12 schools to pay their way out of the B-12 GOR (plus paying exit fees) just to sign on to a GOR that lasts five years longer and not see any real financial gain until 2032.

I think any movement would be closer to when the GOR expires, and I imagine the ACC would try and rework their deal if they could bring the Texas markets to including a longer timeframe.

Of course again, this would involve FSU not selling its university to Gordon Gekko to raise half-a-billion, or UNC/UVA not finding a clever workaround to the GOR heretofore unknown. That remains a possibility until it isn’t. Perhaps the stronger possibility is FSU refuses expansion in 2029 because they want to hasten the endgame. In which case it’s up in there air what happens.

 

[baggerbob]

The SEC has the top programs in Oklahoma and Texas, so they likely won’t go back to that well. Which leaves the B10 who up to this point hasn’t shown a willingness to go any further than Lincoln into BXII territory. They have been focused on the two coasts exclusively. Whether that changes, I don’t know. I can’t imagine Kansas and Oklahoma State is at the top of their new wish list.

Actually the Big 10 has to go through bids in 2029, and with people cutting back on cable and new apps coming online for streaming, it's very possible that these are the last big deals.

 

[djct1999]

The SEC has the top programs in Oklahoma and Texas, so they likely won’t go back to that well. Which leaves the B10 who up to this point hasn’t shown a willingness to go any further than Lincoln into BXII territory. They have been focused on the two coasts exclusively. Whether that changes, I don’t know. I can’t imagine Kansas and Oklahoma State is at the top of their new wish list.

And you think Kansas and Oak State would bring enough to the ACC to warrant 30 plus million? Kansas offers very little and was 20 minutes away from having to join the MWC.

 

[djct1999]

I wouldn't plan on anything other than an incentive laden deal for anyone other than the SEC and B1G going forward. They'll have sufficient inventory to satisfy most desirable programming windows so the outlets will be more than willing to overspend on them which will limit what they'll have to spend on everyone else. Those two conferences will be the QB's getting $45 million to $60 million annual NFL contracts while the next level of conferences will be RB's fighting to continue to get offers of $10 million to $12 million a year and those below that will hope for veteran's minimum deals and late round rookie deals.

I agree100%. I said it yesterday. The same thing will happen to the Big 12 and ACC that happened to the Pac 12.

 

[JeepCSC]

And you think Kansas and Oak State would bring enough to the ACC to warrant 30 plus million? Kansas offers very little and was 20 minutes away from having to join the MWC.

I think the bulk of the Big XII’s value is tied into the Texas schools, Kansas, and Oklahoma State. Kansas-Duke and Kansas-UNC would be the closest thing to replicating UNC-Duke which is the most valuable non-March property in college basketball.

 

[RSTuthill]

There ARE some positives. Things are NOT as bad as they seem.

1. B1G will likely go to 20 quite quickly. Will it be Stanford and Cal, or VA and NC? Probably 50-50 but geographical balance would favor the latter while sentiment would favor the former. (The B1G is already guilty of blowing apart one conference and is sentitive to that fact. Does it want to blow apart a second?)

2. FSU and Clemson likely will buy their way out of the ACC to go to the SEC. This GoR thing only means the ACC will extract a very high price which will be happily paid.

3. The B1G will give up on its dream to finally convince ND as they will be full at 20.

4. However this all plays out, there will be a place for UConn in the ACC. When? Probably May or June of next year. By then UConn will be up to 18 BB natty's and UConn FB will have had a 8-5 record. (Speculation, I know, but it could happen.)

 

[JeepCSC]

I think you undersell exactly the headache that is #2. The GOR + exit fee at this point is valued around $500 million. Even if you could raise the funds, the ACC would still have to agree to let them out of the GOR. Because it’s not strictly speaking something you can pay your way out of. It will have to be litigated on.

But also we don’t know if the SEC would double-dip on markets when the flagship school is already in the fold. Would A&M have been invited after the Longhorns? UNC would likely be their first port of call if the GOR workaround came to fruition.

 

[NH Husky]

UConn not likely to be involved in any conference realignment

With news that Texas and Oklahoma are angling to leave the Big XII, conference...

www.ctinsider.com

2 year old article but it could shed some light on UCONNs position during discussions.