PAC-12 Chaos

[Rufus]

I just realized there is no dedicated thread to all of the chaos happening in the PAC-12. ESPN 360 has a series of articles that show how scary the situation is in the PAC-12. I posted the older ones earlier on a Realignment thread that doesn't seem to exist anymore. Here is the entire series up to date: Why the PAC-12 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal.

Part 1- Introduction

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal - ESPN 960 Sports

BY JEFF FULLER (BAMA COUG) & KRINDORR Link to Part 2 Link to Part 2A “We have better schools, better […]

espn960sports.com

Part 2 - Brand/Fan Base Value

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 2–How Strong Are PAC12 “Brands” & Fan Bases? - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 2a - Silver vs Altimore Fan Base Estimate

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 2a–Comparing Silver & Altimore’s Fan base rankings - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 3 - TV Viewership

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 3 – Television Viewership - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 4 - TV Market Value

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 4–How Strong Are PAC12 TV Markets? - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 5 - Would SDSU & SMU (or Tulane/Rice) Be Dilutive to PAC Media

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 5–Would SDSU & SMU (or Tulane/Rice) Be Dilutive To Media Value? - ESPN 960 Sports

“We view adding SMU as a member in similar fashion to adding Amazon as a media partner: Neither entity can be judged on its merits as of today; both must be evaluated for what they could be in the future”

espn960sports.com

Part 6 - Social Media Metrics Show Low Fan Engagement for PAC

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 6: Social Media Metrics Show Low Fan Engagement for PAC - ESPN 960 Sports

Link to Part 1: Intro Link to Part 2: Brand/Fan Base Value Link to Part 2a: Silver vs Altimore Fan […]

espn960sports.com

Part 7 - Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-Term Declining Trends

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 7: Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-term Declining Trends - ESPN 960 Sports

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 7: Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-term Declining Trends […]

espn960sports.com

 

[BlueandOG]

Thanks for putting this together!

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I just realized there is no dedicated thread to all of the chaos happening in the PAC-12. ESPN 360 has a series of articles that show how scary the situation is in the PAC-12. I posted the older ones earlier on a Realignment thread that doesn't seem to exist anymore. Here is the entire series up to date: Why the PAC-12 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal.

Part 1- Introduction

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal - ESPN 960 Sports

BY JEFF FULLER (BAMA COUG) & KRINDORR Link to Part 2 Link to Part 2A “We have better schools, better […]

espn960sports.com

Part 2 - Brand/Fan Base Value

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 2–How Strong Are PAC12 “Brands” & Fan Bases? - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 2a - Silver vs Altimore Fan Base Estimate

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 2a–Comparing Silver & Altimore’s Fan base rankings - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 3 - TV Viewership

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 3 – Television Viewership - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 4 - TV Market Value

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 4–How Strong Are PAC12 TV Markets? - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 5 - Would SDSU & SMU (or Tulane/Rice) Be Dilutive to PAC Media

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 5–Would SDSU & SMU (or Tulane/Rice) Be Dilutive To Media Value? - ESPN 960 Sports

“We view adding SMU as a member in similar fashion to adding Amazon as a media partner: Neither entity can be judged on its merits as of today; both must be evaluated for what they could be in the future”

espn960sports.com

Part 6 - Social Media Metrics Show Low Fan Engagement for PAC

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 6: Social Media Metrics Show Low Fan Engagement for PAC - ESPN 960 Sports

Link to Part 1: Intro Link to Part 2: Brand/Fan Base Value Link to Part 2a: Silver vs Altimore Fan […]

espn960sports.com

Part 7 - Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-Term Declining Trends

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 7: Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-term Declining Trends - ESPN 960 Sports

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 7: Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-term Declining Trends […]

espn960sports.com

You have convinced me. Only the Big 10 should be allowed to play college sports.

 

[Skiblets]

Agreed thanks. Just read them all ( day off). Brings back the mark Twain line of ‘lies, damn lies and statistics’. Any metric can be created to support a narrative. Beauty of these very in depth articles was that they went deeper into second and third level metrics beyond the typical lazy metric of market size which got Rutgers and Maryland into the BIG.

Think networks are much more savvy at this now. Many of the metics quoted reminded me of all the newer moneyball metrics in baseball as opposed to just average and rbis back in the day.

My ultimate takeaway from these articles was
1. about total markets. Roughly 20 percent of the US population is in the PAC areas while 80
Percent in the Big 12.

2. Viewing trend trends and trajectories Short answer. Big 12 good. PAC bad. And ;

3. Big 12 replacements ((BYU, Cinci, UCF and Houston) fare greatly better in many of the metrics than SDSU and SMU do. Hopefully we would as well

Almost impossible to see how the PAC deal will come close when looking at these analyses in totality. It’s about 30 minutes of reading but would highly recommend.

Really tied the room together dude

 

[Chuck]

Would anyone be totally shocked if the PAC survives and somewhat thrives? If the media deal is close to the Big 12 and they get SDSU, that's a relatively cohesive group geographically and institutionally. Of course, the Big 10 could cripple them by taking 2-4 more of their schools, but that's the case with any league other than the SEC. All things (mostly) equal, if you're Arizona, do you want to affiliate with the PAC+SDSU, or the Big 12? I'd choose the PAC even without UCLA and USC.

The only reason that the Big 12 has some power right now is they are the third-most aligned conference amongst members. The Big 10 and SEC have the power, and the Big 12 schools all know they don't really have another option. That gives them the ability to make moves. The Big East (other than UConn) is similar. The PAC and ACC are paralyzed because they have teams that are afraid to make any long-term commitments and moves because they're hoping to move ahead of their conference-mates to the Big 10 (PAC and ACC) or SEC (ACC). A reason for the Big 12 to take UConn is that we do bring value and I think we'd be happy to be there and only hope to bring some other eastern schools with us if there is an ACC collapse. The Big 10 is a longest of long shots for UConn.

 

[CL82]

The Big 10 and SEC have the power, and the Big 12 schools all know they don't really have another option. That gives them the ability to make moves.

"Our conference members lack of desirability is our strength."

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The PAC has a handful of issues contributing to their current situation:

• There really isn't a whole lot of interst in their product East of the Rocky Mountains.
• The best properties in the conference have no desire to lock themselves into a long term GOR, leaving the conference unstable in media negotiations.
• The media providers have little desire to entice the conference members (financially) into a long term GOR as the better properties would be more valuable to them in the B1G or SEC.
• Expansion will be tricky as two mainstays (Cal, Stanford) will do their best to veto any subpar academic schools (basically eliminating all candidates except SMU, Rice & Tulane).

I doubt any school that fully believes they will have a home in the B1G or SEC at some point down the road has any desire to leave for the B-12. It's anyone's guess what any of the other schools are thinking as what the PAC becomes after all is said and done may still be their best option.

 

[ZooCougar]

I just realized there is no dedicated thread to all of the chaos happening in the PAC-12. ESPN 360 has a series of articles that show how scary the situation is in the PAC-12. I posted the older ones earlier on a Realignment thread that doesn't seem to exist anymore. Here is the entire series up to date: Why the PAC-12 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal.

Part 1- Introduction

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal - ESPN 960 Sports

BY JEFF FULLER (BAMA COUG) & KRINDORR Link to Part 2 Link to Part 2A “We have better schools, better […]

espn960sports.com

Part 2 - Brand/Fan Base Value

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 2–How Strong Are PAC12 “Brands” & Fan Bases? - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 2a - Silver vs Altimore Fan Base Estimate

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 2a–Comparing Silver & Altimore’s Fan base rankings - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 3 - TV Viewership

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 3 – Television Viewership - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 4 - TV Market Value

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 4–How Strong Are PAC12 TV Markets? - ESPN 960 Sports

This article is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Use the code ESPN960 when you sign up to get your […]

espn960sports.com

Part 5 - Would SDSU & SMU (or Tulane/Rice) Be Dilutive to PAC Media

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal: Part 5–Would SDSU & SMU (or Tulane/Rice) Be Dilutive To Media Value? - ESPN 960 Sports

“We view adding SMU as a member in similar fashion to adding Amazon as a media partner: Neither entity can be judged on its merits as of today; both must be evaluated for what they could be in the future”

espn960sports.com

Part 6 - Social Media Metrics Show Low Fan Engagement for PAC

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 6: Social Media Metrics Show Low Fan Engagement for PAC - ESPN 960 Sports

Link to Part 1: Intro Link to Part 2: Brand/Fan Base Value Link to Part 2a: Silver vs Altimore Fan […]

espn960sports.com

Part 7 - Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-Term Declining Trends

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 7: Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-term Declining Trends - ESPN 960 Sports

Why the PAC10 is Struggling to Make a Media Deal Part 7: Football & Basketball Attendance Shows Long-term Declining Trends […]

espn960sports.com

It’s mildly infuriating that ESPN, a potential bidder can engage in actively devaluing in something they would bid on. But we live in a free society I guess.

I just think it’s messed up how some of these schools that have been doing fine are now being told that they aren’t valuable since they aren’t good enough to be in the B1G.

 

[Jimdish255]

It’s mildly infuriating that ESPN, a potential bidder can engage in actively devaluing in something they would bid on. But we live in a free society I guess.

I just think it’s messed up how some of these schools that have been doing fine are now being told that they aren’t valuable since they aren’t good enough to be in the B1G.

That's why the word "partnership" Isn't an accurate description of the business relationship that exists between conferences and the networks that carry their content. No matter what "advice" they give the commissioners and members, or what story they plant in the media, they are not in the business of building the long term health and success of the league. In the short term they will promote their product, but there is always the incentive to keep the league guessing as to their value and stability. It's a game they can play for only so long because as you keep consolidating the few major conferences standing become more powerful. And their control over the spigot will eventually be dispersed. But ESPN has to a large degree been the gatekeeper. And when you see their manipulation over the last couple of decades their influence and advice has been a mixed bag for some and highly detrimental for others.

 

[billybud]

ESPN has done well by their #1 product...the SEC.

They advertise them tirelessly, play them up, have them in featured prime time slots....ESPN known colloquailly as ESECSPIN

 

[Slasher]

Would anyone be totally shocked if the PAC survives and somewhat thrives? If the media deal is close to the Big 12 and they get SDSU, that's a relatively cohesive group geographically and institutionally. Of course, the Big 10 could cripple them by taking 2-4 more of their schools, but that's the case with any league other than the SEC. All things (mostly) equal, if you're Arizona, do you want to affiliate with the PAC+SDSU, or the Big 12? I'd choose the PAC even without UCLA and USC.

The only reason that the Big 12 has some power right now is they are the third-most aligned conference amongst members. The Big 10 and SEC have the power, and the Big 12 schools all know they don't really have another option. That gives them the ability to make moves. The Big East (other than UConn) is similar. The PAC and ACC are paralyzed because they have teams that are afraid to make any long-term commitments and moves because they're hoping to move ahead of their conference-mates to the Big 10 (PAC and ACC) or SEC (ACC). A reason for the Big 12 to take UConn is that we do bring value and I think we'd be happy to be there and only hope to bring some other eastern schools with us if there is an ACC collapse. The Big 10 is a longest of long shots for UConn.

If they "thrive" on Apple TV will anyone know they're thriving? Honest question. Fox and ESPN aren't going to focus on them in their network shows or their advertising.

 

[UCFBfan]

No matter what deal the Pac makes, if it keeps it's members together it's only a matter of time before it all implodes. Oregon and UW will always be waiting for the B1G while the 4 corner schools will always look to the Big 12 for saving if possible. Stanford and Cal are stuck because they are so academic centered that there really isn't a match unless the B1G takes 4. Oregon St and WSU is MWC bound of this goes down hill.

Someone in some thread compared all of this to the old BE and how it was on such shaky ground throughout the end. This is going to be the same even if they get a somewhat decent TV deal.

 

[giddyup]

No matter what deal the Pac makes, if it keeps it's members together it's only a matter of time before it all implodes. Oregon and UW will always be waiting for the B1G while the 4 corner schools will always look to the Big 12 for saving if possible. Stanford and Cal are stuck because they are so academic centered that there really isn't a match unless the B1G takes 4. Oregon St and WSU is MWC bound of this goes down hill.

Someone in some thread compared all of this to the old BE and how it was on such shaky ground throughout the end. This is going to be the same even if they get a somewhat decent TV deal.

Seeing great academic institutions like Stanford and Cal left holding the bag in CR sucks. Something really wrong with the system. UConn is the poster child for getting screwed. We aren’t going to be the last.

 

[greenday61892]

It’s mildly infuriating that ESPN, a potential bidder can engage in actively devaluing in something they would bid on. But we live in a free society I guess.

I just think it’s messed up how some of these schools that have been doing fine are now being told that they aren’t valuable since they aren’t good enough to be in the B1G.

Oh like they did to the flagship school of the state that's giving them massive friggin tax breaks? Yeah I'm definitely not still bitter at ESPN about that.

 

[noeynox]

ESPN has done well by their #1 product...the SEC.

They advertise them tirelessly, play them up, have them in featured prime time slots....ESPN known colloquailly as ESECSPIN

That's because people tune in to SEC games like no other league. B1G is the same.

 

[HuskyHawk]

That's because people tune in to SEC games like no other league. B1G is the same.

It’s true. SEC games will be watched by people who aren’t fans of either school. That’s rarely true of other conferences aside from games between top teams. Even the B1G has more “meh” matchups, if fewer than any league but the SEC.

 

[Rufus]

It’s true. SEC games will be watched by people who aren’t fans of either school. That’s rarely true of other conferences aside from games between top teams. Even the B1G has more “meh” matchups, if fewer than any league but the SEC.

The B1G has flagship universities with massive alumni bases, so even the “meh” matchups usually have really nice tv ratings.

 

[dayooper]

The B1G has flagship universities with massive alumni bases, so even the “meh” matchups usually have really nice tv ratings.

Yes. The trio of UM, OSU and PSU really drive the ratings. Even playing the meh schools like Rutgers and Purdue bring very good numbers. There are alumni all over country and sports, especially football are an integral part of the student experience. I know groups of Michigan alumni that follow many of UofM’s teams, including women’s sports. They will watch volleyball, women’s basketball, Lacrosse.

I don’t know how other conferences alumni consume sports, but Big10 fans do have a passion for their teams.

 

[Ldandy]

It’s true. SEC games will be watched by people who aren’t fans of either school. That’s rarely true of other conferences aside from games between top teams. Even the B1G has more “meh” matchups, if fewer than any league but the SEC.

The SEC has plenty of brutal matchups that ESPN has conditioned the casual fan to believe “just mean more.” I’d watch literally just about any Big 12 or PAC game before watching Missouri play Kentucky etc.

 

[CL82]

Yes. The trio of UM, OSU and PSU really drive the ratings. Even playing the meh schools like Rutgers and Purdue bring very good numbers. There are alumni all over country and sports, especially football are an integral part of the student experience. I know groups of Michigan alumni that follow many of UofM’s teams, including women’s sports. They will watch volleyball, women’s basketball, Lacrosse.

I don’t know how other conferences alumni consume sports, but Big10 fans do have a passion for their teams.

In that regard, I think Connecticut would be a good fit in the Big 10. I think we had five or six different sports that were ranked in the top 15 at some point last year. Men's basketball, women's basketball, men's hockey, woman's hockey, baseball and softball are all consistently very good teams. That's a lot of content. I can honestly say I have watched games of four of the six pretty consistently and watched at least one game of 5 off the six sports.

I don't think that the Big Ten is currently interested in Connecticut, but the number of sports that we are good at consistently, the schools academics and status as a C1 research institution makes me believe would be a pretty good fit. The glaring omission is the lack of AAU used status, but as we've seen this year, that could change pretty quickly.

 

[Kolumbo]

Seeing great academic institutions like Stanford and Cal left holding the bag in CR sucks. Something really wrong with the system. UConn is the poster child for getting screwed. We aren’t going to be the last.

Stanford has been very good at being both Harvard and Alabama but maybe the time has come for elite academic institutions to choose a lane and get out of the semi pro football game. Sure some B1G schools are doing both but I think the Ivy League is the model for academics. Stanford and Cal will be fine no matter what happens so I can't feel bad for anyone outside the great state of Connecticut.

 

[Rufus]

Paul Finebaum paints bleak picture for Pac-12's future

amp.awfulannouncing.com

“It’s just a continual story that every time I hear or see a tweet, ‘Pac-10 nears [media] deal,’ I just shrug my shoulders,” Finebaum said.

“All that tells me is they’re going nowhere…If they get [a media deal], it would be a good one. And I think that league is very diminished,” Finebaum said. “I don’t think they’ll ever be able to put those fires out. Even with a new deal. Even if it’s with Apple or Amazon or some cobbled-together group, they’re still in big trouble.”

“I would want out. I would not want to be part of the Pac-12 anymore because I think their future is bleak,” he said. “And we already have an issue in college athletics where the SEC and the Big Ten have literally just left everyone else behind from a television standpoint. The race is now to be No.3; the Pac-12 has no shot at that…if you’re a member of the Pac-12, you are literally going to the dollar store looking for other schools…Why would you want to be in that league if you could get out?”

 

[Punkbo]

In that regard, I think Connecticut would be a good fit in the Big 10. I think we had five or six different sports that were ranked in the top 15 at some point last year. Men's basketball, women's basketball, men's hockey, woman's hockey, baseball and softball are all consistently very good teams. That's a lot of content. I can honestly say I have watched games of four of the six pretty consistently and watched at least one game of 5 off the six sports.

I don't think that the Big Ten is currently interested in Connecticut, but the number of sports that we are good at consistently, the schools academics and status as a C1 research institution makes me believe would be a pretty good fit. The glaring omission is the lack of AAU used status, but as we've seen this year, that could change pretty quickly.

If the purpose of this post is to make all of us feel better, you win. Thank you!

“You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.”

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If the purpose of this post is to make all of us feel better, you win. Thank you!

“You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.”

Why does this post make us feel better?

 

[Punkbo]

Why does this post make us feel better?

In short, we’re not getting into the Big 10 anytime soon, but it’s nice to know we’ve got a lot in common with them.