OT: Thinking of Betting on the Super Bowl? | The Boneyard

OT: Thinking of Betting on the Super Bowl?

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Kibitzer

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Here's a crash course on how it works, assuming you are dealing with your local bookie.

First, you pick a team and bet against the spread, which means you "give" xx points if you bet on the favorite or you "take" the same xx points to bet on the underdog.

You will bet $11 to win $10. The bookie collects his commission ("vigorish") of 4.55% from the winner (the losing bettor just loses his money). Let's say two bettors each wagered $110, one giving points (favorite) and the other taking (underdog); total, $220. Loser coughs up $110, and winner gets $210. The bookie pockets ten bucks ("vig"), which doesn't seem like much, but millions are bet and (shhh!) his overhead is low and his earnings are tax-free.

If you are still with me, bear in mind that the ideal situation for bookies large and small is for the bets to fall about evenly on both sides -- that the "line," or "spread," appeals equally to bettors on both teams, or for "over/under" bets that pertain to the ultimate total score at game's end.

How have the past 47 Super Bowl games paid off? Favored teams are 26-19-2 vs. the spread. Only 8 underdogs have won outright, and 9 of the past 12 underdogs have "covered," which means they lost by fewer points than their bettors "took."

As you can see, the bookies always win. Well, almost. In 1979, the "early line" favored the Steelers by 4.5 points over Dallas.As the week progressed, so much money was bet on the Cowboys that the line was adjusted to Pittsburgh by 3.5 points. Result? Steelers won, 35-31, so the bookies paid off all who bet early on the Cowboys and everybody who bet late on the Steelers. Somewhere on God's Green Earth is a guy who bet Dallas on Monday and Pittsburgh on Saturday. The IRS is still looking for him. So is his ex-wife.
 
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How have the past 47 Super Bowl games paid off? Favored teams are 26-19-2 vs. the spread. Only 8 underdogs have won outright, and 9 of the past 12 underdogs have "covered," which means they lost by fewer points than their bettors "took."

True enough. But as the Las Vegas Sun, in an article citing that statistic ALSO notes, the most recent SuperBowls show the exact opposite trend: "the underdog has won outright in four of the past six years and covered without taking the victory in a fifth."
 
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