I think that maybe ND turned the corner in the Miami game. The full week off between the Miami and Lousiville games seemed to revitalize some folks (especially Marina Mabrey) and that was one of ND's best all-around games of the season. Then, they blew out Wake with no problem, as they should. So my interest tonight is in seeing whether ND really has turned the corner or whether this will be another dogfight of a conference road game (a la Duke and Louisville).
FSU is statistically the best rebounding team in the country. Last year, ND did well on the boards against them, actually out-rebounding FSU in the ACC tourney final. But Reimer had 8 boards in that game and Loyd had 7. I'm a little worried about the lack of size without Reimer and how that will affect rebounding. I think ND will outplay them in the half-court in terms of getting good shots and not allowing them. But FSU can win if they feast on second-chance points and ND's shooters can't make up the difference from beyond the arc.
I think another key is turnovers. Syracuse beat FSU in part because they turned them over frequently. ND doesn't press or trap like Syracuse but I think they'll be aggressive in the passing lanes. ND's probably going to get beat on the boards so turnovers will be the way to equalize the number of shot opportunities.
Given that FSU has lost to the best 5 teams they've played (to UConn by 24, to Arizona St. by 12, to Louisville by 10, to Syracuse by 10, and to Florida by 10) and that their best win is over Miami, I expect ND to win (let's say by 10!
). But as you can tell by the amount I've written, I'm definitely a little bit worried.