NBA Playoffs 2023

[HuskyHawk]

Boston was missing contested 3's. Spoelstra's zone is designed to stop teams that just pass around the perimeter with the occasional drive right at Adebayo mixed in. Miami could practically stand in place on defense and wait for Boston to pass it to someone to shoot right in their defender's face. Bucks were similar.

Spoelstra's zone is designed to force teams to just pass it around the perimeter. Boston doesn't normally do that. They were 5th in assist percentage this year. Usually they have lots of cuts and ball screens. Look a lot like UConn did this year. The zone disrupted that, pushed them into bad habits like passing it around the perimeter or taking risking ISO drives in traffic. But they don't normally play that way. Credit to Miami, and Joe didn't know how to adjust to it.

 

[uconnbaseball]

Jokic will destroy any attempt at a zone so Miami’s defense will have to make adjustments for this series.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Spoelstra's zone is designed to force teams to just pass it around the perimeter. Boston doesn't normally do that. They were 5th in assist percentage this year. Usually they have lots of cuts and ball screens. Look a lot like UConn did this year. The zone disrupted that, pushed them into bad habits like passing it around the perimeter or taking risking ISO drives in traffic. But they don't normally play that way. Credit to Miami, and Joe didn't know how to adjust to it.

You are thinking of a 1990's zone, which they don't even play at the youth level anymore.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You are thinking of a 1990's zone, which they don't even play at the youth level anymore.

Not at all. You suggested the Celtics playing a certain way was why Miami ran that zone. It's backwards. Boston didn't play that way all year, if you actually watched them. The Miami zone is what caused that ugly offense. Every team in the NBA runs some flavor of zone. Miami has to hide certain guys on defense. When Herro is in the offense hunts him. Smart went after Vincent and dominated him inside a few times, and Miami works to avoid those matchups.

Martin is an upgrade on Herro. Shoots just as well. Rebounds and defends much better.

 

[Dean Wormer]

Spoelstra's zone is designed to force teams to just pass it around the perimeter. Boston doesn't normally do that. They were 5th in assist percentage this year. Usually they have lots of cuts and ball screens. Look a lot like UConn did this year. The zone disrupted that, pushed them into bad habits like passing it around the perimeter or taking risking ISO drives in traffic. But they don't normally play that way. Credit to Miami, and Joe didn't know how to adjust to it.

The Heat use zone similar to how Boeheim did at Cuse. They lure you into taking threes and if that's all you do you're in trouble.
The Celts never had a game plan and every game they lived and died by it. What really killed them all series was turnovers. Miss threes plus turnovers equals fishing time.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Thanks. You look at these charts and the shot chart provided and you wonder how tf the Celtics lost to Miami. It really was Martin and all the other guys hitting threes and the Celtics not hitting theirs.

That’s what it was. Boston generated better shot quality and still missed them. Miami made tougher shots.

 

[Ratso]

nuggets are too big in all positions. the city is very confident, my buddy in denver said a local radio show claims denver in 3! forfeit in game 4

 

[runner11]

bell curve

An image tagged bell curve

imgflip.com

 

[nelsonmuntz]

No matter who wins this year, I think this is another year of proving that the NBA Draft, and having a high lottery pick in particular, is not worth nearly as much as the draft junkies want to make people think. The three best players on the Nuggets (Jokic #41, Murray #7, Porter Jr. #14) and the three best players on the Heat (Butler #30, Adebayo #14, Herro #13) are not high lottery picks.

This will be the sixth champion out of the last seven where there was not more than 1 Top 5 pick among the champion's Top 3 players:

2022: Golden State: Arguably Wiggins, although a case could be made that Poole was GSW's third best player last year.
2021: Buck had no Top 5 draft picks among their top players
2020: Lakers had AD and Lebron
2019: Raptors had no Top 5 draft picks among their top players.
2018: GSW had Durant
2017: GSW had Durant

A few other teams have gotten close with high lottery picks:

2022 Celtics (Tatum, Brown, Horford)
2021 Suns (Paul, Ayton)
2018 Cavaliers (Lebron, Love)
2017 Cavaliers (Lebron, Love, Irving)

The 2016 Cavaliers had three high lottery picks (Lebron, Love, Irving), but the 2015 Warriors (no high lottery picks) and 2014 Spurs (Duncan) were not chuck full of high lottery picks. It is worth noting that even some of the high lottery picks I cite above are from the 2000's.

I would argue that there is more talent in most of the drafts since 2010 than there was before, but it is harder and harder to assess. There are a lot of good, young players in the NBA, but they are often coming later in the draft than they did 20 or 30 years ago.

 

[UConnSwag11]

 

[Dove]

The Nugs were up 9. Now down 9.

 

[Dove]

Nugs down 3 with 20 secs...

and missed a trey attempt at buzzer.

Heat win.

 

[Scoe]

Won’t be the worst finals off all time like most people think. Still think Nuggets win it in 6 but a lot of people are sleeping on the Heat.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Coach Spo just got a road win with Jimmy only scoring 21. Just an epic coaching job he’s doing.

Denver’s 1st home playoff loss.

 

[alphasigko]

Looked like Big East refs in the game this evening

 

[wingsfan055]

Thought the refs were horrible. Too many tickytak or phantom calls on Denver in the 4th. 1-sided. The missed goal tending was huge. Once again, it was all about the refs. Let them play. It's the Finals.

 

[MJ1]

When are we going to stop blaming loses on the referees, Denver up 15 at home should put the game away and not allow the referees to matter. They didn’t do that and Miami showed heart and toughness. We have series after all. Lowery, Strus, and Butler, Big East in the house!

 

[alphasigko]

Thought the refs were horrible. Too many tickytak or phantom calls on Denver in the 4th. 1-sided. The missed goal tending was huge. Once again, it was all about the refs. Let them play. It's the Finals.

The missed step out of bounds while making a pass to a made Miami 3-point shot was huge as well.

 

[SouleMan]

A fun barstool tweet following tonight's game.

 

[Scoe]

Thought the refs were horrible. Too many tickytak or phantom calls on Denver in the 4th. 1-sided. The missed goal tending was huge. Once again, it was all about the refs. Let them play. It's the Finals.

A 15 pt lead you can’t blame it on the refs.

 

[traitor71]

A 15 pt lead you can’t blame it on the refs.

Maybe Denver just needs every game to be like game one, where Miami only gets to the line twice and also misses a gazillion open shots.

 

[Scoe]

Maybe Denver just needs every game to be like game one, where Miami only gets to the line twice and also misses a gazillion open shots.

Haha right, I don’t get why people act like the Nuggets are the KD led Warriors they won 53 games, not 60 plus, not saying they shouldn’t win this series btw.

 

[Dogdeacon]

No matter who wins this year, I think this is another year of proving that the NBA Draft, and having a high lottery pick in particular, is not worth nearly as much as the draft junkies want to make people think. The three best players on the Nuggets (Jokic #41, Murray #7, Porter Jr. #14) and the three best players on the Heat (Butler #30, Adebayo #14, Herro #13) are not high lottery picks.

This will be the sixth champion out of the last seven where there was not more than 1 Top 5 pick among the champion's Top 3 players:

2022: Golden State: Arguably Wiggins, although a case could be made that Poole was GSW's third best player last year.
2021: Buck had no Top 5 draft picks among their top players
2020: Lakers had AD and Lebron
2019: Raptors had no Top 5 draft picks among their top players.
2018: GSW had Durant
2017: GSW had Durant

A few other teams have gotten close with high lottery picks:

2022 Celtics (Tatum, Brown, Horford)
2021 Suns (Paul, Ayton)
2018 Cavaliers (Lebron, Love)
2017 Cavaliers (Lebron, Love, Irving)

The 2016 Cavaliers had three high lottery picks (Lebron, Love, Irving), but the 2015 Warriors (no high lottery picks) and 2014 Spurs (Duncan) were not chuck full of high lottery picks. It is worth noting that even some of the high lottery picks I cite above are from the 2000's.

I would argue that there is more talent in most of the drafts since 2010 than there was before, but it is harder and harder to assess. There are a lot of good, young players in the NBA, but they are often coming later in the draft than they did 20 or 30 years ago.

Really silly analysis & argument and your facts are wrong. But even with wrong facts 4/7 title winners had a #1 pick, one had 2 #1's.

For example, The conference finals (double the teams for better statistical relevancy) had plenty of top-5s playing (LeBron, AD, D.Russell, Tatum, Brown, KLove, AGordon, JGreen).

Not sure what your point is. Do you need a superstar to win in NBA?! (hint: YES) But you can get that superstar outside of the lottery. Your odds are better higher up AND you need to have really great scouting, forecasting and player development - so that you don't mess up those high picks and maximize value of later picks. In a league based on talent the draft is super important. High picks aren't everything, but drafting well & high picks are how you win titles. The better point is a high draft pick absent good scouting and player development does not equal success, Sacto & Clippers franchises histories of often being in or winning the lottery and no titles to show for it probably best embody this. Do you want to bet that San Antonio wins a title in next 7yrs?

 

[traitor71]

Maybe if some of these teams were mentally stronger, they would still be around.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Really silly analysis & argument and your facts are wrong. But even with wrong facts 4/7 title winners had a #1 pick, one had 2 #1's.

For example, The conference finals (double the teams for better statistical relevancy) had plenty of top-5s playing (LeBron, AD, D.Russell, Tatum, Brown, KLove, AGordon, JGreen).

Not sure what your point is. Do you need a superstar to win in NBA?! (hint: YES) But you can get that superstar outside of the lottery. Your odds are better higher up AND you need to have really great scouting, forecasting and player development - so that you don't mess up those high picks and maximize value of later picks. In a league based on talent the draft is super important. High picks aren't everything, but drafting well & high picks are how you win titles. The better point is a high draft pick absent good scouting and player development does not equal success, Sacto & Clippers franchises histories of often being in or winning the lottery and no titles to show for it probably best embody this. Do you want to bet that San Antonio wins a title in next 7yrs?

4 of the last 7 had the # 1 pick? Who are you talking about? Durant was the #2 pick in 2007.

Fun fact: only a handful of the players that were high draft picks won their title, or got close, for the team that drafted them. And that is giving credit to the Cavaliers for Lebron leaving and coming back. Even when a high draft pick turns out to be good, he often doesn’t help the team that drafted him.