My thoughts on Tues.

[Paesano]

If ND gets the same treatment as the Puke men are getting tonight, UConn CAN lose.

 

[j66kicker]

I think that Loyd will get around 20, more or less, but take about 17 shots to do it. And we wom bu 20 or so. And I will be watching, wearing my lucky mojo UConn cap and shirt.

Done deal then!

 

[Geno-ista]

If ND gets the same treatment as the Puke men are getting tonight, UConn CAN lose.

Peasano- you are right about the refs trying to keep ND in the game. Wisconsin just got hosed so bad with block charges and no calls as the Dukees started flying into bodies and getting to the line, no matter how bad they charged. The Duke that head butted the Wisconsin defender should have been charged with a technical- instead he goes to the line for an and one. Even the late out of bounds call isn't reversed when it was easy to see live it was off Duke under their offensive basket. Sickening.
We will crush ND by 25-30!

 

[Paesano]

Consider this. The NCAA has gotten a lot of bad press recently from the way they handled Penn State to the fiasco at Syracuse to the total dumpster fire at UNC. They need their squeaky clean darlings to win in order to distract everyone. I fear ND wins, no matter how bad the refs need to be. People are saying Wisconsin played poorly down the stretch. Do they really think the way the game was being called had nothing to do with it? They are kids and they are human. Trust me, our girls will get just as frustrated and rattled if this happens to them tomorrow.

 

[j66kicker]

Don't leave it to the refs to decide - leave no doubt

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

As I've stated before, the game will come down to UCONN's bigs are far superior to ND's bigs! As they showed in the 1st game! ND only has Turner, Reimer is a foul waiting to happen! ND fans say we were missing Turner the 1st time wait till she comes back! Well she's back and it'll make NO DIFFERENCE! She'll foul out as the SoCar game but earlier, maybe the 8 minute mark! Who is going to cover Stewie, Tuck, KML, Stokes, & Williams? UCONN's and ND's Guards are both talented so they're a wash, even though I think MoJeff will have a HUGE game both offensively & defensively! Not the no-factor she was in the 1st game! Geno will have Nurse follow Loyd all over even to the bathroom! Since Kia's scoring has been down a little in the NCAA's she'll face guard Loyd as he did SoCar's Mitchell and frustrate Loyd the same way!
The time of ND beating UCONN is over! Back when ND won those 7, UCONN's players gave ND too much credit and played accordingly with the refs help, but the Huskies of 2015, like last year have their mojo back and will kick Irish ass and take names! UCONN wins by at least 20 points but closer to 25 to 28 points!
The Talking Suits are now saying this edition of UCONN 's defense is NOT as good as past years especially when it comes to defensing penetrating guards! Don't believe it! UCONN will totally shut down ND and establish their own offense! The first 5-8 minutes of the game may be close but when UCONN gets rolling Katie bar the door! It'll be a track meet and THE MUFFETT will be frustrated once again! One ND Championship that Svet and Shea's injuries gave her in 2001! Stick a fork in ND they're done!
Just for the record, I watch the game in REAL TIME as I want to see the Irish cry in frustration when it happens not later!

 

[Buzzyboy]

It will take a monster (25-30 points) contribution from Loyd and another monster contribution (20+ points) from another ND player to make this game competitive in the last 5 minutes. I don't see anyone on ND capable of this and I don't see Loyd getting there either. UCONN is just too focused on whatever is necessary to win. Example: The best 3 Pointer in the history of NCAA realized she was the focus of the defense last night and just decided her contribution was going to be 7 assists.

If you are only going by the numbers, Loyd had a monster game at Notre Dame in the Fall when we beat them badly but what happened is that Loyd actually stunk the joint out and shot horrifically and was virtually the mad bomber in that game. She scored a bunch of points by the ten minute mark of the first half and then virtually disappeared and contributed to UConn's victory by continually putting up miss after miss after miss. I think she scored over 30 points but they were the worst 30 points ever. They showed a chart yesterday after their game where they suggested that Loyd had come out of her slump because she scored over 20 points but her shooting percentage was virtually the same as the lousy shooting she's done throughout the NCAA tournament so all that changed was that she put up more shots. She was almost the reason Notre Dame lost yesterday and her shot in the last 20 seconds yesterday was awful, so awful that South Carolina wasn't in a position to rebound it (airball) because they were assuming the shot would hit off the iron and it never touched anything, falling far short. Her teammate saw the ball, grabbed it out of the air, spun and hit the game winning shot to save her b**t from giving away the game. I want to see that Loyd once more, tomorrow!

 

[Buzzyboy]

We don't have the shut-down defense of years past, but Geno knows this and instead challenges other teams to run with us. Usually it works. We score in the 80's, and the natural deficiencies of the other team limit their scoring to 70 or fewer.

The only time it didn't work was against Stanford, who both exploited our poor individual, on-ball defense (with Chong in particular getting shredded) and shot 50% from deep. Notre Dame has the dribble-drive ability, with Loyd in particular, but I'm not sure they have the other pieces necessary to get to 80 points.

UConn 82-68 ND.

I couldn't disagree more with your interpretation of this team. The defense is what it's always been and that is the catalyst of our offense. This defense is outstanding though it took us a while to finally get where we needed to. Though KML can be a little slow and quicker players can occasionally use that to their advantage, the shotblocking of Kiah and Breanna can stymie players that get around that corner. KML is smart and positions herself well defensively so she isn't beat too often and her quick hands can compensate, as well. Kiah is a marvelous defender and Stewie is good, helped by her amazing length and agility and Morgan is formidable, as well. Moriah is cobra quick and Nurse is solid so I'm totally happy with out defense and it is one of the reasons we've led the nation in scoring is because of our stops that have led to transition offensive success.

 

[Buzzyboy]

If you look at only the predictive rating, it predicts a 16 point win. Like I said earlier, UConn has to struggle AND ND has to bring their best game AND the refs have to help them.

If the refs call it fair and don't allow them to mug our players in the paint, UConn wins.

I'm not saying I won't be nervous but I'm inclined to think that the few years where Skylar and company were flopping and throwing their bodies recklessly into the point and instead of getting called for charges, were rewarded by blocking calls are over. The refereeing is nowhere near good but it's better than it was and they're no longer rewarding that bull in the china shop type basketball, thankfully.

 

[Buzzyboy]

You guys are too much!

There is absolutely no one that would want to watch a Notre Dame/UConn game with me because I am so over the top, and it isn't fun. The same would apply if the Huskies were playing Tennessee or any bona fide foe. I'm not proud of it but I get pretty upset over bad calls, idiotic remarks from the announcers, poor decisions that a Huskie might play, etc. etc. I know myself and watch the game by myself so as not to offend anyone or get institutionalized. Other than these games, I'm a pretty mild mannered guy.

 

[Buzzyboy]

If ND gets the same treatment as the Puke men are getting tonight, UConn CAN lose.

I don't think so because UConn's superiority over Notre Dame is appreciably more than Wisconsin's superiority over Duke. Even if the refereeing was as bad as you say, there's only so much these referees can do. If it was THAT flagrantly bad, there would be such an uproar that the NCAA would permanently bar those refs from ever officiating another game of any kind.

 

[Paesano]

I don't think so because UConn's superiority over Notre Dame is appreciably more than Wisconsin's superiority over Duke. Even if the refereeing was as bad as you say, there's only so much these referees can do. If it was THAT flagrantly bad, there would be such an uproar that the NCAA would permanently bar those refs from ever officiating another game of any kind.

Not if they are the ones holding the strings.

 

[Paesano]

There is absolutely no one that would want to watch a Notre Dame/UConn game with me because I am so over the top, and it isn't fun. The same would apply if the Huskies were playing Tennessee or any bona fide foe. I'm not proud of it but I get pretty upset over bad calls, idiotic remarks from the announcers, poor decisions that a Huskie might play, etc. etc. I know myself and watch the game by myself so as not to offend anyone or get institutionalized. Other than these games, I'm a pretty mild mannered guy.

We should watch a game together!

 

[GoUconn7961]

Consider this. The NCAA has gotten a lot of bad press recently from the way they handled Penn State to the fiasco at Syracuse to the total dumpster fire at UNC. They need their squeaky clean darlings to win in order to distract everyone. I fear ND wins, no matter how bad the refs need to be. People are saying Wisconsin played poorly down the stretch. Do they really think the way the game was being called had nothing to do with it? They are kids and they are human. Trust me, our girls will get just as frustrated and rattled if this happens to them tomorrow.

We must be DOOMED then..DOOMED I tell you!!

 

[bleeckerhusky]

There is absolutely no one that would want to watch a Notre Dame/UConn game with me because I am so over the top, and it isn't fun. The same would apply if the Huskies were playing Tennessee or any bona fide foe. I'm not proud of it but I get pretty upset over bad calls, idiotic remarks from the announcers, poor decisions that a Huskie might play, etc. etc. I know myself and watch the game by myself so as not to offend anyone or get institutionalized. Other than these games, I'm a pretty mild mannered guy.

I can relate to your situation. My wife and the dog both leave the room when I watch.

 

[DobbsRover2]

If the game was to play out according to the teams' seasonal averages, UConn will pick up 11 to 12 fouls and ND 14 to 15, as neither team is known for fouling much. Sure, part of those stats are built on lesser opponents that don't get teams in the position to foul, and in a hard-fought NC, the numbers might go up a bit, but it still seems unlikely that the refs would suddenly start blowing a whistle on every play and sending the teams to the bench. The NCAA wants a showcase event, not a controversial stinker, and the refs will be seeking a balance. Any huge departure from normal will look bad.

Both teams were assessed 18 fouls apiece back in November in very different circumstances, but in last year's NC the foul calls were the same as what I would expect for tonight -- 12 against UConn and 14 against ND. And it's possible that a few of the calls against ND were late game intentionals even down by 20, but it really just looked like ND was playing hard to the end on the last two fouls.

 

[GoUconn7961]

If the game was to play out according to the teams' seasonal averages, UConn will pick up 11 to 12 fouls and ND 14 to 15, as neither team is known for fouling much. Sure, part of those stats are built on lesser opponents that don't get teams in the position to foul, and in a hard-fought NC, the numbers might go up a bit, but it still seems unlikely that the refs would suddenly start blowing a whistle on every play and sending the teams to the bench. The NCAA wants a showcase event, not a controversial stinker, and the refs will be seeking a balance. Any huge departure from normal will look bad.

Both teams were assessed 18 fouls apiece back in November in very different circumstances, but in last year's NC the foul calls were the same as what I would expect for tonight -- 12 against UConn and 14 against ND. And it's possible that a few of the calls against ND were late game intentionals even down by 20, but it really just looked like ND was playing hard to the end on the last two fouls.

Great analysis! Let's hope you're on point here. I do agree that this is a marquee event for the sport so why ruin it with phantom fouls and interrupt the flow of the game.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I think that Loyd will get around 20, more or less, but take about 17 shots to do it. And we wom bu 20 or so. And I will be watching, wearing my lucky mojo UConn cap and shirt.

"Wom BU Wom BU" A whole new UConn cheer is born! I love it!!

 

[Tonyc]

Both teams have improved and I believe UConn has improved more then ND. With that said UConn had a 28 pt turn around at ND to win by 18. How does ND overcome that? It would have to be a combo or defense, ND shooting the ball better and UConn not shooting the ball great. UConns shooting percentage is up a lot in the NCAAs as is their scoring. But this is ND and I see UConn scoring 80+ and ND scoring in the 60's. I also see Turner in foul trouble in the first half and Mabry locked up on defense. Loyd will not go for 30 this time around and if she does her shooting percentage will be low. Mojeff will control the game and UConns quickness will be too much for ND.

UConn 86 ND 63

 

[wvhuskyfan]

There is absolutely no one that would want to watch a Notre Dame/UConn game with me because I am so over the top, and it isn't fun. The same would apply if the Huskies were playing Tennessee or any bona fide foe. I'm not proud of it but I get pretty upset over bad calls, idiotic remarks from the announcers, poor decisions that a Huskie might play, etc. etc. I know myself and watch the game by myself so as not to offend anyone or get institutionalized. Other than these games, I'm a pretty mild mannered guy.

I'd love to watch the game with you!

 

[Striper69]

This is a very different team from last year - not saying better or worse, just very different. But I think the biggest difference this year in WCBB is ND. Last year they were truly dominant arriving at the NC game undefeated and rarely tested - they had a 4 point win against MD and a 7 point win against Virginia both in January, but otherwise were manhandling teams in Uconn fashion. This year has been much more of a struggle - 8 games in single digit or loss - and there were two losses - one can be excused because they didn't play Uconn last year, but they are 'getting by' in a way that they didn't have to last year. In addition to the single digit games there have also been more of those 10-15 point struggles instead of the 20+ point breezes.

Uconn has actually gone in the opposite direction - if anything they have had few challenges and an easier year - part of that is schedule which has definitely not had as many quality teams, but somehow a healthy Kaleena, a returned Morgan, an even better Moriah and Stewart, and a very surprising freshman Kia have more than made up for the loss of Stef and Bria. And the bench is no longer just Kiah as both Gabby and Saniya have stepped up to provide additional options as needs arise.

So I am quietly confident that a healthy ND this year will actually pose less of a challenge than last year's ND minus their center. Doesn't mean that I will not be feeling nauseous on Tuesday!!

Beware the Ides of Mar... wait, it's April. Nevermind.

 

[GoUconn7961]

What I find so interesting is that a lot of people (not here) are forgetting that in that first match-up MoJett did not score AND she fouled out. That is unlikely to happen tonight. So, put her back in the playmaking equation - even w/BT in ND's line-up and I like our chances.

 

[meyers7]

What a coward!

Have some intestinal fortitude and watch it live. Who wants to watch a game when you already know the outcome? It's only a game. Wait a minute, did I write that? LOL

You're right, it's life or death, especially any time Notre Lame is involved.

Not the cowardness, it's the mojo. Don't want to mess with that.

 

[ctdad]

What I find so interesting is that a lot of people (not here) are forgetting that in that first match-up MoJett did not score AND she fouled out. That is unlikely to happen tonight. So, put her back in the playmaking equation - even w/BT in ND's line-up and I like our chances.

True, but it is also unlikely that Tuck will go for 25 again either. The 10 or so she doesn't get will go to Stewart or Jefferson or somebody else, so a wash.

On the Irish side, Turner's replacement back in December was Markisha Wright, a senior who is right now ND's 4th front court player (after Turner, Reimer and freshman Katherine Westbeld. Wright scored 1 point and took 1 shot in December. Turner will obliterate that.

For the Irish to be close, they will need average performances from Loyd and Turner (20 and 14 points respectively) plus a wild card performance from an unexpected source (ala Grayson Allen for Duke last night). Lindsey Allen put up 28 and 23 and against Stanford and Baylor at the regional. Mabrey scored 17-18 in the first half against Baylor. Reimer has a few 20 point performances this season. Not saying that will happen, just that for the game to be close it has to, and even that assumes no Huskies have monster games, just normal.

There was another thread about Muffet choose your poison, and that is so true. The ND men beat Duke twice by taking away the 3, letting Okafor score down low and trying to match that at the other end. Does McGraw take a page from that book and try that? It's a dangerous strategy, but so is hoping the Huskies have an off night from outside. Not an appetizing choice.

This ND alum says UConn by 15.

 

[HoopsFan21]

ND doesn't need to rely on Loyd to score when they also have Allen who has play very well lately and is one of the top guards in the country. I just hope UConn comes out like they did in last year's game when it was 8-8 early, then 22-8 a few minutes later. I'm not looking forward to a game where they let ND hang around.